Presentation by Anirban Basu, Sage Policy Group May 2, 2016

1. By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
May 2nd, 2016
The Economist Who Loved Me
On Behalf of
The Maryland Economic Development Association

2. The World is Not
(Growing) Enough
*1999: Pierce Brosnan; Sophie Marceau

3. -3.8%
2.4%
-0.5%
3.1%
7.5%
6.5%
6.4%
-1.8%
3.5%
3.0%
4.1%
2.4%
2.5%
1.5%
1.9%
0.5%
2.6%
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
1.5%
1.9%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India (1)
China
Emerging & developing Asia
Russia
Emerging & developing Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging market & developing economies
United States
Australia
Canada
United Kingdom
Japan
Spain
Italy
Germany
France
Euro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2016 Projected
Notes: 1. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at
market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year. 2. For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for
approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights. For Emerging Market and Developing
Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and
developing economies’ output at purchasing-power-parity weights.
2016 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.2%
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016.

4. $0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Mar-01
Jul-01
Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
$/Barrel
March 2016:
$37.92 /Barrel
NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars
March 2001 through March 2016
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

5. World Oil Demand Growth
2007Q1 through 2016Q1*
Source: The World Bank; International Energy Agency
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1*
mb/d,growthyearoveryear
Other Non-OECD
OECD
China
*2016Q1 is an estimate

6. Moneypenny—Metal Price Indices
March 2007 through March 2016
Source: The World Bank
US$ Nominal
Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.
Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.
Base Metals
Iron Ore
Precious Metals
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
2010=100

7. Source: Quandl.com
Baltic Dry Index
April 2009 through April 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000
April 22nd
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw
materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea.
The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier
size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

8. Skyfall - BRAZIL
• Consumer price index increased 10.7 percent in
2015, despite ongoing economic contraction;
• Highest inflation rate in more than a decade;
• Increases in key categories:
• Food (12.3%)
• Transportation prices (10.2%)
• Housing related costs (18.3%)
• Brazil’s real down 33 percent compared to the
U.S. dollar by end of 2015.
• Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings downgraded
sovereign debt to junk status
• Boletin Focus, a weekly survey of 100 private
financial analysts, predicts Brazil’s economy will
contract by another 3 percent this year.
Source: Currency Exchange, Wall Street Journal
*2012: Daniel Craig, Berenice Marlohe

9. A View to a Kill - RUSSIA
• Collapse in oil prices and economic sanctions
(and counter sanctions) related to Ukraine
have hurt Russian economic growth;
• Economy contracted about 4 percent in 2015;
• World Bank: Russia will remain in recession in
2016;
• Russia’s ruble down 20 percent compared
to U.S. dollar by end of 2015;
• Continued decline in investment
expected;
• Budget expenditures will drop 3 to 5
percent in 2016.
Source: Currency Exchange, CNBC
*1985: Roger Moore, Tanya Roberts

10. I Expect You to Grow - CHINA
• Growth at slowest pace in 2 decades;
• World Bank predicts 6.7% economic
growth for 2016 (down from 7.0% in
June);
• George Soros: China has “a major
adjustment problem” on its hands;
• Stock values fell 12 percent during first week
of 2016 trading;
• Government attempts to stabilize economy
only made investors even more wary;
• Circuit breaker system shuts down trading
when losses hit a certain level;
• Too restrictive and causes panic selling once
breakers are turned off.
Source: Currency Exchange, CNN Money
*(1964) Goldfinger, misquote from Auric Goldfinger, Sean
Connery, Honor Blackman

11. Quantum of Solace
*2008: Daniel Craig; Olga Kurylenko

12. -10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2016Q1: +0.5%
Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 through 2016Q1*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advance (1st) Estimate

13. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component
2015Q2 – 2016Q1*
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Personal
Consumption
Government
Spending
Net Exports Gross
Investment
2.4
0.5
0.2
0.9
2.0
0.3
-0.3
-0.1
1.7
0.0
-0.1 -0.2
1.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.6
SAAR(%)
Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
3.9
2.0
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
GDP
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2016Q1: +0.5%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advance (1st) Estimate

14. -1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600 Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Thousands
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
March 2016:
+215K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
March 2002 through March 2016

15. National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
March 2015 v. March 2016
-139
-27
39
74
121
145
301
472
499
606
711
-300 -100 100 300 500 700 900
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Information
Other Services
Government
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,802K Jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
March 2015 v. March 2016
Absolute Change
-200
100
2,300
2,900
4,000
7,400
7,900
10,900
12,200
14,900
-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000
Information
Government
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Professional and Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
MD Total:
+62.4K; +2.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,802K; +2.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD
added 53,252 jobs between March 2015 and March 2016.

17. -1,000
300
700
1,100
1,800
3,500
4,300
5,600
6,000
13,200
-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000
Government
Information
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
March 2015 v. March 2016
Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total:
+35.5K; +2.6%
MD Total (SA):
+62.4K; +2.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,802K; +2.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
March 2015 v. March 2016
Absolute Change
-1,700
500
2,000
4,800
6,100
9,600
12,100
13,300
15,800
24,100
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Information
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Other Services
Government
Education and Health Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
DC MSA Total:
+86.6K; +2.8%
US Total (SA):
+2,802K; +2.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
March 2015 v. March 2016 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 IDAHO 3.6 18 MICHIGAN 2.3 33 INDIANA 1.3
2 OREGON 3.3 19 ARKANSAS 2.2 36 ALABAMA 1.2
2 UTAH 3.3 20 KENTUCKY 2.0 37 MINNESOTA 1.1
4 TENNESSEE 3.2 20 NEW JERSEY 2.0 38 IOWA 1.0
4 WASHINGTON 3.2 22 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 38 MAINE 1.0
6 ARIZONA 3.1 22 MISSISSIPPI 1.8 38 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.0
6 GEORGIA 3.1 22 OHIO 1.8 41 CONNECTICUT 0.9
8 FLORIDA 2.9 22 RHODE ISLAND 1.8 41 MISSOURI 0.9
8 HAWAII 2.9 22 WISCONSIN 1.8 43 MONTANA 0.7
10 COLORADO 2.8 27 NEBRASKA 1.6 44 NEW MEXICO 0.3
10 NEVADA 2.8 27 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.6 45 KANSAS 0.0
10 VIRGINIA 2.8 27 TEXAS 1.6 46 OKLAHOMA -0.4
13 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.7 30 NEW YORK 1.4 47 ALASKA -0.5
14 CALIFORNIA 2.6 30 PENNSYLVANIA 1.4 48 LOUISIANA -0.7
14 DELAWARE 2.6 30 VERMONT 1.4 48 WEST VIRGINIA -0.7
16 NORTH CAROLINA 2.5 33 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.3 50 WYOMING -3.2
17 MARYLAND 2.4 33 ILLINOIS 1.3 51 NORTH DAKOTA -4.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +2.0%

20. Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch
as of January 2016

21. U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.0%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA)
March 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 SOUTH DAKOTA 2.5 17 TEXAS 4.3 34 CALIFORNIA 5.4
2 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.6 19 DELAWARE 4.4 34 RHODE ISLAND 5.4
3 COLORADO 2.9 19 MASSACHUSETTS 4.4 37 GEORGIA 5.5
4 NEBRASKA 3.0 19 NEW JERSEY 4.4 37 NORTH CAROLINA 5.5
5 HAWAII 3.1 19 OKLAHOMA 4.4 39 KENTUCKY 5.6
5 NORTH DAKOTA 3.1 23 OREGON 4.5 40 CONNECTICUT 5.7
7 VERMONT 3.3 23 TENNESSEE 4.5 40 SOUTH CAROLINA 5.7
8 MAINE 3.4 23 WISCONSIN 4.5 42 NEVADA 5.8
9 UTAH 3.5 26 MARYLAND 4.7 42 WASHINGTON 5.8
10 MINNESOTA 3.7 27 MICHIGAN 4.8 44 LOUISIANA 6.1
11 IDAHO 3.8 27 NEW YORK 4.8 45 ALABAMA 6.2
11 IOWA 3.8 29 FLORIDA 4.9 45 NEW MEXICO 6.2
13 KANSAS 3.9 29 PENNSYLVANIA 4.9 47 MISSISSIPPI 6.3
14 ARKANSAS 4.0 31 INDIANA 5.0 48 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 6.5
14 VIRGINIA 4.0 32 OHIO 5.1 48 ILLINOIS 6.5
16 MISSOURI 4.2 33 WYOMING 5.2 48 WEST VIRGINIA 6.5
17 MONTANA 4.3 34 ARIZONA 5.4 51 ALASKA 6.6

22. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)
March 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area 3.8 10
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9
1
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area 3.8 10
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9
3
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan
NECTA 4.0 13
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.0
3
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 13
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-
DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.0
5
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-
WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 15
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan
Statistical Area 5.1
6
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan
Statistical Area 4.4 15
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical
Area (1) 5.1
7
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan
Statistical Area 4.5 17
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2
8
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical
Area 4.7 18
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan
Statistical Area 5.6
9
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area 4.8 19
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
10
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan
Statistical Area 4.9 20
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6
1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

23. MD County Unemployment Rates
March 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR
1 Howard County 3.4 13 Talbot County 5.1
2 Montgomery County 3.5 14 Kent County 5.3
3 Carroll County 3.9 15 Caroline County 5.5
4 Anne Arundel County 4.1 16 Cecil County 5.6
4 Calvert County 4.1 17 Washington County 5.7
4 Frederick County 4.1 18 Wicomico County 6.8
7 Queen Anne's County 4.4 19 Baltimore City 7.1
8 St. Mary's County 4.5 20 Garrett County 7.2
9 Charles County 4.6 21 Allegany County 7.3
9 Harford County 4.6 22 Dorchester County 7.6
11 Prince George's County 4.8 23 Somerset County 8.2
12 Baltimore County 5.0 24 Worcester County 12.4

24. Personal Income Per Capita, by MD County, 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Montgomery
Howard
Talbot
AnneArundel
Baltimore
QueenAnne's
Calvert
Carroll
Frederick
Harford
Charles
Kent
St.Mary's
Worcester
PrinceGeorge's
Garrett
BaltimoreCity
Cecil
Caroline
Dorchester
Washington
Wicomico
Allegany
Somerset

25. Fastest/Slowest Growing MD Municipalities
Population Growth April 2010 – July 2014
Source: State Department of Planning, Maryland Data Center
TOP 20 BOTTOM 20
Rank City/Place County % Rank City/Place County %
1 Upper Marlboro town Prince George's County 32.4% 138 Crisfield city Somerset County -2.1%
2 Leonardtown town St. Mary's County 19.3% 139 Henderson town Caroline County -2.1%
3 Gaithersburg city Montgomery County 11.6% 140 Loch Lynn Heights town Garrett County -2.2%
4 Rockville city Montgomery County 7.6% 141 Friendsville town Garrett County -2.2%
5 Emmitsburg town Frederick County 7.5% 142 Chestertown town Kent County -2.4%
6 Salisbury city Wicomico County 7.3% 143 Greensboro town Caroline County -2.5%
7 Centreville town Queen Anne's County 6.7% 144 Kitzmiller town Garrett County -2.5%
8 College Park city Prince George's County 6.1% 145 Deer Park town Garrett County -2.5%
9 Fruitland city Wicomico County 5.8% 146 Federalsburg town Caroline County -2.6%
10 Takoma Park city Montgomery County 5.7% 147 Preston town Caroline County -2.8%
11 Poolesville town Montgomery County 5.7% 148 Cumberland city Allegany County -2.9%
12 Glen Echo town Montgomery County 5.5% 149 Millington town Kent County -3.0%
13 North Chevy Chase village Montgomery County 5.4% 150 Lonaconing town Allegany County -3.1%
14 Chevy Chase View town Montgomery County 5.3% 151 Betterton town Kent County -3.2%
15 Martin's Additions village Montgomery County 5.3% 152 Frostburg city Allegany County -3.3%
16 Kensington town Montgomery County 5.2% 153 Westernport town Allegany County -3.5%
17 Washington Grove town Montgomery County 5.1% 154 Barton town Allegany County -3.7%
18 Somerset town Montgomery County 5.1% 155 Midland town Allegany County -4.0%
19 Garrett Park town Montgomery County 5.0% 156 Oxford town Talbot County -4.1%
20 Bowie city Prince George's County 4.9% 157 Trappe town Talbot County -4.4%

26. License to Sell
*License to Kill, 1989: Timothy Dalton; Carey Lowell

27. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
April 1995 through April 2016*
Source: Freddie Mac
2.89%
3.66%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Apr-95
Oct-95
Apr-96
Oct-96
Apr-97
Oct-97
Apr-98
Oct-98
Apr-99
Oct-99
Apr-00
Oct-00
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Rate
15-yr 30-yr
*Week ending 4/28/2016

28. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Homeownership
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
1980Q1
1981Q1
1982Q1
1983Q1
1984Q1
1985Q1
1986Q1
1987Q1
1988Q1
1989Q1
1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2016Q1:

29. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction
February 1993 through February 2016
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Feb-93
Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
$Billions(SAAR)

30. 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1.4%
1.8% 2.1%
3.7%
5.4%
6.1% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.8%
9.0% 9.3%
9.7%
12-Month%Change
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
February 2016, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s

31. Maryland Median Home Sale Prices
March 2005 through March 2016
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Year-over-year%change
Trend Line
March 2015 v. March 2016: +2.3%
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)

32. Months of Inventory by Maryland County
March 2016
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)
23.0
2.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Maryland: 4.4 Months

33. Tomorrow Never Dies
*1997: Pierce Brosnan; Michelle Yeoh; Teri Hatcher

34. -15.6%
-2.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.4%
2.6%
3.4%
5.5%
6.1%
6.3%
6.5%
10.8%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Gasoline Stations
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Food & Beverage Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Internet, etc. Retailers
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
12-month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business
March 2015 v. March 2016*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau *March 2016 advanced estimate
Total Retail Sales: +1.7% YOY

35. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August 2007 through March 2016
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
One-monthPercentChange
March 2016: 123.4
where 2010: 100

36. Dr. Know
• Not a Happy New Year so far.
Everyone knows about China, etc.
and N.Korea, but we have problems
right here;
• Corporate profit margins are slipping
and interest rates are likely on the
rise – does not sound like a great
recipe for stock prices or for
corporate investment;
• Only the consumer is really
contributing significantly to growth,
with state and local government
spending playing a supporting role;
• Job growth should remain decent in
the near-term – we ended 2015 with
a near-record in total job openings;
• Maryland is in better shape – we
don’t produce oil or natural gas, we
don’t export very much, cyber-
security is a legitimate growth
industry, and a new Speaker of the
House should be able to avert near-
term federal fiscal catastrophe; and
• We may be transitioning very
quickly from the mid-cycle stage of
the recovery to the late-stage: 2017-
18 outlook very murky.
*1962: Sean Connery; Ursula Andress

37. Thank You
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