A short talk introducing #NoEstimates, exploring the Why, What and How behind the movement. It will be then followed by the #NoEstimates game which introduce a practical example on how it can be applied The #NoEstimates game is an engaging group activity about the power of using data to forecast. It gives practitioners and stakeholders a better way to understand and allow for the effects of variation on their project planning efforts.

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2. #NoEstimates
The What, Why & How
Mark So Daniel Prager @agilejitsu
The #NoEstimates
Game

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Common Perceptions of Estimates?

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The problems with estimates?
Solidifies ignorance
Predicting something when we know
the least about it
Raises unrealistic expectations
Creates expectation that we will
deliver to the estimates
Wastes capacity
When estimates are wrong – it
delivers no real business value
Reduces trust
They can lead to mistrust when

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FACT
Only 12% of projects delivered on time
or on budget
Source: Chaos report 2014

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Why are we still doing estimates?
• The need to obtain
funding
• Set release dates
• Understand resourcing
requirements
• Align other business
functions, e.g.
• Marketing
• Training
• Establish the ‘how much
scope can I fit into X

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We are not alone
• #NoEstimates is a
movement that
explores alternatives
to estimates for making
decisions in software
development.
• That is, ways to make
decisions with
“NoEstimates”.
• Twitter movement
initially started by

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The #NoEstimates Game
• http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.
• http://skillfire.co/project
Credit: Adrian Fittolani

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What can we learn from #NoEstimates?
• Uncertainty is part of
life for project
delivery
• You cannot ignore it
• Incorporate
uncertainties into your
planning
• Use data gathered from previous experience
• Much of the time spent
estimating is better
spent on actually

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So how do we actually do that?
• Use pilot projects to
discover the unknown
• Time box effort
• Slice work into smaller pieces (~ few days per story? )
• Seed funding to deliver small chunks of working product
• Build, measure & learn
• Capture cycle time and
use modelling to
forecast schedules

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Source & Inspirations
• http://scrumage.com/blog/2015/09/agile-project-forecasting-the-monte-
carlo-method/
• https://neilkillick.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/noestimates-is-neither-the-
destination-nor-the-journey/
• http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-noestimates-game.html
• http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2016/05/how-to-make-a-
decision-in-the-presence-of-uncertainty.html
• http://scrumandkanban.co.uk/no-estimates/
• http://ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/
• https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white-papers/chaos-report.pdf

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Thank You