Spend not splurge – consumers point to muted sales
Optimism for an economic rebound has peaked, with young consumers the most optimistic
Despite this, spending intent is negative for many categories, though improved from February
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McKinsey Survey: UK consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis
1. McKinsey & Company 1
Five emerging consumer themes in October 2021
1 2 5
4
3
Spend not splurge
– consumers point
to muted sales
Optimism for an
economic rebound has
peaked, with young
consumers the most
optimistic
Strongest growth in
spend intent for out-of-
home entertainment,
restaurants, and travel
Omnichannel is
ascendant
Approximately 60% of
consumers in the UK
research products in an
omnichannel way
Gen Z and millennials
are likeliest to say they
are influenced by social
media
Holiday spend
begins early
Consumers appear
more likely to travel to
see family over the
holidays; 40% of
consumers report
shopping more online,
and 32% are close to
completing their holiday
shopping
A tentative return
to out-of-home
About half of
consumers are
engaging in “normal”
out-of-home activities;
however, 60 to 75
percent have modified
their out-of-home
behavior
Loyalty shake-up
continues
Seven in ten UK
consumers faced with
lack of availability have
switched to another
brand or retailer
2. McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
15 14 13 17 22 21
22 32
41
49 52
50
46
65
74
67
44
37 35 33 32
14
1
5
Mixed The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression
or fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
Slightly more than one-third of UK customers expect to see an
economic rebound occurring in the next two to three months
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to
100% due to rounding.
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
US Germany
10/15–22
10/9–15
Italy
10/15–22
France
10/15–22
Change in % optimistic vs
Feb survey, percentage points
+3
UK
10/15–22
+3 +13 +14
+18
Spain
10/15–22
+16
India
10/18–25
+3
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
China
10/17–22
+6 +2
Japan
10/18–20
17
50
33
3. McKinsey & Company 3
25 26 30 30
37
31
18 17
54
58 54 55 47
52
53 50
21 16 16 15 17 17
30 33
Oct 2021
Feb 2021
Nov 2020
June 2020
Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Sept 2020
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to
100% because of rounding.
2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n= 1,027; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,089; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n =
664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020, n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600, 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Overall optimism remains strong in October 2021 compared with
perspectives in 2020
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Mixed: The economy
will be impacted for 6-12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-
19 will have lasting
impact on the economy
and show regression or
fall into lengthy recession
20202 2021
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
4. McKinsey & Company 4
The most optimistic consumers are the youngest (Gen Z) and those
who are unvaccinated
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
By generation By vaccination status
17 16
52
40
31
44
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
10
16 21 17
38
44
52 58
52
40
27 25
Gen Z Baby boomers2
Millennials Gen X
Optimistic Pessimistic
Mixed
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
5. McKinsey & Company 5
27 23
29 27
12
10
7
5
61
67 64 68
Baby boomers3
Millennials
Gen Z Gen X
25
35
7
8
68
57
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
26
8
66
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK´s Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned
By generation By vaccination status2
There is no significant
difference across
generations in
expectations on when
routines will return to
normal
Unvaccinated
consumers are more
likely than those
vaccinated to be
engaging in their
normal routines (35%
vs 25% vaccinated),
reflecting their greater
optimism overall
Approximately one in four consumers have returned to ‘normal’
routines, while the majority expect this to happen in 2022 or later
Expectations on routines returning to ‘normal,’1 % of respondents
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
6. McKinsey & Company 6
An increasing portion of consumers indicate that their income,
spending, and savings stayed about the same in the past two weeks
About the same
Reduced slightly/a lot Increased slightly/a lot
70
Past 2 weeks
9
57
60
12
34
29
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
23
7
Past 2 weeks
14
Past 2 weeks
45
20
37
41
43
Past 2 weeks
31
54
15
42
Past 2 weeks
37
21 22
44
34
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
22
24
54
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,089, sampled to match UK general population 18+
years
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 2 weeks?; Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Household income Household spending Household savings
Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021
Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021
Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
COVID-19 impact on household finances,1 % of respondents
7. McKinsey & Company 7
Consumers are evenly split between those whose finances have
returned to normal and those expecting this in 2022 or later
1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
By generation By vaccination status2
~70% of baby
boomers say their
finances either
were not affected
or are back to
normal, vs ~30%
for Gen Z and
millennials
Expectations on personal/household finances
returning to normal,1 % of respondents
30 32
44
69
12 9
58 59
52
29
Gen X
Gen Z Millennials Baby boomers3
4
2
49
40
5
8
46
52
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned
47
6
47
Overall
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
8. McKinsey & Company 8
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
Consumers are less likely to splurge than in early 2021, with older
consumers being particularly cautious
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and half which you feel you
will spend more on now?
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Millennials
Gen X
Baby boomers3
57%
1
56%
0
Gen Z 64%
0
44%
−1
49%
−8
60%
−18
16%
−1
11%
−11
11%
−22
18%
−13
29%
−8
39%
−7
Generation
2
Respondents who plan/do not plan to
splurge/treat themselves in 20211
% of respondents
Low
(<£25k/year)
Middle
(£25k–50k/year)
High
(>£50k/year)
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–50% pp change from Feb 21
XX
Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, %
Oct 2021
Plan on
splurging
47
Feb 2021
53
33
67
Do not plan
on splurging
Change < −10 pp
.
9. McKinsey & Company 9
Gen Z consumers intend to splurge on cosmetics and apparel, Gen
X and baby boomers on travel and eating out
Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1
% of all respondents with intent to splurge
1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 6 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
23
16
35
Sports apparel and equipment
21
30
28
Outdoor living
26
26
25
25
18
17
16
Household essentials
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Apparel, shoes, accessories
Items for your home
Electronics
Travel, lodging, and vacation
Fitness, sports, and outdoors
Makeup, skin-care products
Personal services
Out-of-home entertainment
Pets
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
45 28 39 33
45 30 26 13
24 32 25 24
30 28 28 11
21 17 37 43
42 28 12 9
23 28 25 20
24 30 17 11
27 14 29 22
Generational cut
21 20 16 13
23 20 9 9
23 16 16 4
15 17 16 11
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
−18
−5
−1
1
−29
N/A
−13
3
−12
−7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Categories
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
10. McKinsey & Company 10
Consumers intend to reduce in spending—except on groceries and
petrol—with some improvement versus February 2021
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
Net intent >1
Net intent −15 to 0
Net intent: < −15
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
9
22
31
23
32
32
33
31
36
42
19
9
9
20
40
32
41
32
25
14
9
16
8
11
16
7
22
8
11
13
14
12
12
Restaurant
Quick-service restaurant
Alcohol
Groceries
Tobacco products
Food takeout and delivery
Skin care and makeup
Footwear
Kitchen and dining
Apparel
Jewelry
10
Accessories
Toys and baby
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Home and furniture
Sports and outdoors
Home improvement, garden
10
10
Decrease Stay the same Increase
8
15
12
19
41
30
18
25
26
15
33
36
18
27
37
46
42
39
11
13
9
8
18
13
19
9
24
11
17
20
24
14
16
16
17
Vitamins and OTC medicine
Pet food and supplies
Pet-care services
Entertainment at home
Gasoline
Books, magazines, newspapers
Out-of-home entertainment
Consumer electronics
Fitness and wellness
Personal-care services
Vehicles
Short-term home rentals
Travel by car
Hotel/resort stays
Cruises
Adventures and tours
International flights
Domestic flights
10
Net
intent2
−3
−11
−31
−12
−5
−6
−17
9
−19
2
−3
−23
−30
−26
−2
−22
1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1
% of respondents who bought these categories at least once since 2019
6
−1
0
7
12
50
22
26
26
17
31
4
5
13
6
16
−15
10
Change since
Feb 2021, pp
Change since
Feb 2021, pp
3 3
8
−6
11
10
43
18
33
32
45
14
40
36
48
33
35
38
−22 36
Net
intent2
−20
16
3
1
−27
−12
−21
−-9
−23
−16
−25
20
35
−1
−9
−18
−29
−20
11. McKinsey & Company 11
−40
−50
−80
−60
−30
0
−70
20
10
−10
−20
Consumer electronics
Mar 2020
Out-of-home entertainment
Apparel
International flights
Personal-care products
Oct 2021
Feb 2020
Nov 2020
Fitness and wellness
Sept 2020
June 2020
May 2020
Apr 2020
Groceries
Skin care and makeup
Domestic flights
Household supplies
Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1
Net intent2
Spending net intent in discretionary categories is increasing
1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
2020 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,089; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n =
664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020, n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600, 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
12. McKinsey & Company 12
37
36
31
27
27
27
25
25
22
20
19
16
15
15
14
14
13
12
11
10
9
9
8
6
63
57
62
64
64
62
67
66
58
64
64
66
70
68
70
56
62
64
66
67
70
65
65
53
7
7
9
9
11
8
9
20
16
17
18
15
17
16
30
25
24
23
23
21
26
27
41
Footwear
Personal-care products
Meal at restaurant
Tobacco products and smoking supplies
Alcoholic beverages
Household supplies
Home decoration and furniture
Groceries/food for home
Meal at quick-service restaurant
Pet food and supplies
Skin care and makeup
Vitamins, supplements, and over-the-counter medicine
Books, magazines, newspapers
Vehicles
Home improvement and gardening supplies
Fitness and wellness services
Kitchen and dining
Food takeout and delivery
Accessories (eg, handbags, sunglasses)
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Toys and baby supplies
Jewelry
Consumer electronics
Apparel
Research and purchase only in store Omnichannel Research and purchase only online
About 60 percent of consumers do research in omnichannel, with
the highest share of online in consumer electronics and fashion
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021
Product searches1 and purchases2 by channel
% of respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which best describes how you have purchased the following categories over the last 3 months?
13. McKinsey & Company 13
Social-media influence is strongest among Gen Z and millennials
1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced toward a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories?
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
41
38
37
34
34
33
29
28
28
26
25
25
23
19
19
18
17
17
16
14
14
14
13
12
Vehicles
Jewelry
Fitness and wellness services
Home decoration and furniture
Accessories (eg, handbags, sunglasses)
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Toys and baby supplies
Skin care and makeup
Kitchen and dining
Footwear
Home improvement and gardening supplies
Consumer electronics
Apparel
Food takeout, delivery
Vitamins, supplements, and over-the-counter medicine
Meal at restaurant
Books, magazines, newspapers
Meal at quick-service restaurant
Tobacco products and smoking supplies
Alcoholic beverages
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Pet food and supplies
Groceries/food for home
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
53 33 14
49 48 28 7
58 44 23 8
26 51 27 3
53 43 21 5
58 51 22 5
27 45 26 2
52 42 19 4
42 41 18 7
Generational cut
47 41 18 3
47 50 18 3
50 40 21 4
46 43 16 3
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Categories
Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1
% of respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months
24
30
39
38
31
31
37
15
18
17
2
2
4
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
24 25 13 4
25 31 13 4
20 23 10 2
18 29 14 1
27
30
22
29
28
26
11
12
9
2
1
2
22 23 11 1
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021
14. McKinsey & Company 14
1. Q: And have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Consumers reported more frequent cooking, usage of self-checkout,
and secondhand shopping
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021
25
7
29
30
12
13
10
19
8
14
7
11
25
6
17
22
53
57
52
38
29
16
38
14
29
46
12
52
16
36
11
56
61
35
10
5
32
26
53
14
7
43
48
42
30
41
43
45
46
57
10
38
39
46
15
10
48
40
12
58
12
9 49
6
45
46
10
68
Using less Using about the same Using more
Frequency of using/doing1
% shown among consumers who have participated in the activity in the last 3 months
Used or did in last 3 months
% of total respondents
Drive-thru line for a fast-food restaurant
Curbside pickup from a restaurant
Used a food delivery provider
Self-checkout or scan-and-go at a physical store
Buy online, pick up in store
Curbside delivery at a store
Purchased secondhand products online
Downloaded/used deal-finding plug-ins
Downloaded/used a new store/restaurant app
Purchased directly from social media
Used an app/website for same-day delivery
Used an app/website for delivery within 1 hour
Shopped at a store I had not shopped at before for groceries
Changed my primary grocery store
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Personal care/grooming at home
Tried making something myself/DIY project
15. McKinsey & Company 15
Social media, digital workouts, and online game playing greatly
accelerated in the past three months
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? Q: Which best describes how often you have used each of the following items in the past three months?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021
52
40
38 47
34
42
16
15
58
37
11 31
10
51
13
33
9
51
53
36
33
36
10
56
54
34
56
55
39
13
19
6
44
43
39
9
36
10
9
9
45
48
7
40
54
42
49
61
30
8
27
Frequency of using/doing1
% shown among consumers who have participated in the activity in the last 3 months
Using more
Using less Using about the same
Used or did in last 3 months
% of total respondents
Wellness app (eg, meditation, balanced living)
Digital workout bike or machine
Online personal training/fitness
Grocery delivery
Restaurant food delivery
Meal kit delivery
Online streaming
Video conferencing for professional use
Virtual hangouts and video chats for personal use
Telemedicine for physical health care
Telemedicine for mental health care
Playing online games
Watching online games
Remote learning for myself
Remote learning for my kids
Used social media
Used TikTok
8
9
5
10
36
43
56
17
13
5
17
8
5
18
8
23
61
16. McKinsey & Company 16
About half of consumers have encountered stock shortages, leading
most often to retailer or brand substitution
1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available?
2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
49
51
Able to purchase
all items
Could not purchase
at least 1 item
Oct 2021
Respondents who planned to purchase
something but could not, due to unavailability1
% of respondents
33
31
7
11
18
Bought a different brand or similar
product at a different retailer
Waited until the product was
available at the same retailer
Bought a different product
at the same retailer
Bought the product
at a different retailer
Did not buy anything
Consumer responses to stockouts2
% of respondents who could not make a planned purchase
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
17. McKinsey & Company 17
58
34
30
21
16
14
Different retailer/store/website
Any new shopping behavior
New digital shopping method
Different brand
Private label/store brand
New shopping method2
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
All consumers
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 42% replied “None of these.”
2. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Behaviors in the past 3 months1
% of respondents who have tried a new shopping behavior
Changes in shopping behavior in the last three months have been
much more extensive among younger consumers
Difference from all respondents
percentage points
Gen Z Millennials
88 79
60 41
48 43
26 31
27 28
12 2
Generational cut
Gen X
Baby
boomers3
57 30
35 20
23 11
14 4
28 24
30 12
18. McKinsey & Company 18
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents who tried a new brand since COVID-19 began
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new
private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
19
Better prices/promotions
Is more sustainable/better for the environment
8
Better value
Larger package sizes
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Is natural/organic
Better shipping/delivery cost
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Supporting local businesses
7
Shares my values
30
The company treats its employees well
11
Wanted to treat myself
Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine
Better quality
Products are in stock
Is available where I’m shopping
Cleaner/has better hygiene measures
35
13
21
17
5
7
7
14
11
17
13
6
Quality/organic
Availability
Purpose-driven
Personal choice
Convenience
Health/hygiene
Novelty 33
Value 64
25
24
23
13
6
19
Baby
boomers2
Gen Z +
millennials Gen X
33 36
39
26 29
39
16 2
16
12 -
3
17 25
26
11 31
16
10 11
13
6 7
7
10 2
6
7 2
4
19 4
11
11 15
9
20 11
17
13 4
4
18 22
20
16 15
6
7 5
3
All consumers
Between −2 and 2
< −2 >2
Value was a primary reason for brand switch among all
generations, especially Gen X
x Net % of respondents per category
Difference from all respondents
percentage points
19. McKinsey & Company 19
Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021
44
9
10
27
28
4
Sept 2020
Nov 2020
Oct 2021
Feb 2021
June 2020
May 2020
Overall
Vaccinated
54
Unvaccinated
43
Gen X
Millennials
Gen Z Baby boomers3
39
45 49
44
45
Low (<£25k)
45
High (>£50k)
Medium
(£25k–50k)
43
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
By income
44%
of baby boomers are
doing out-of-home
activities
43%
of lower-income
households are doing
out-of-home activities
55%
of people who are
unvaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities
Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
Almost half of UK consumers say they are engaging in ‘normal’ out-
of-home activities
20. McKinsey & Company 20
Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1
% shown for respondents who engaged in the activity at least once prior to COVID-19
Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past 2 weeks?
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment 51
21
24
25
35
34
61
57
54
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar
Go to a hair or nail salon
Attend an indoor cultural event
Go out for family entertainment
Attend an outdoor event
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with family
Get together with friends
71
88
69
48
31
55
47
11
34
18
20
Travel by airplane
Work outside my home
Shop for groceries/necessities
Shop for non-necessities
Go to a shopping mall
Travel more than 2 hours by car
Use public transportation
Use a ride-sharing service
Travel by train
Stay in a hotel
Rent a short-term home
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
≥50%
<50%
Consumers increasingly work outside home and engage in
commuting, shopping, and in-person social interaction
21. McKinsey & Company 21
1. Q: With the rise of the Delta variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
6
24 26 25
37 36 38
34 32 32
5
Low (<£25k) Medium
(£25k–50k)
5
High (>£50k)
Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021
11
24
29
38
31
34 29
4
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
25
37
33
Overall
5
Engage more
Engage less
Engage with
adjusted behavior
Engage same as
before Delta
By income By vaccination status
Unvaccinated
consumers are less
likely to reduce or
change their out-of-
home behavior
despite the Delta
variant
Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of Delta variant,1 % of respondents
Roughly 70 percent of consumers have changed the way they engage
in out-of-home activities because of the Delta variant
22. McKinsey & Company 22
Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19, but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs pre-COVID-19”;
“Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.”
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment
Attend an indoor cultural event
36
32
Go to a hair or nail salon
68
59
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar
Go out for family entertainment
64
60
41
36
34
64
40
30
Attend an outdoor event
36
64
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
66
70
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with family
37
63
Get together with friends
Go to a shopping mall
26
Stay in a hotel
69
27
74
28
Work outside my home 73
Shop for groceries/necessities
31
Shop for non-necessities
32
68
72
47
43
53
Travel more than 2 hours by car
36
64
Use public transportation
Use a ride-sharing service
37
41
Travel by airplane 59
63
57
43
57
Rent a short-term home
Travel by train
Doing less, doing in a modified way
Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19
Engagement in out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
Depending on the category, approximately 60 to 75 percent of
consumers have modified their out-of-home behavior
23. McKinsey & Company 23
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191
% of respondents
Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
23
8
4
13
11
9
11
5
4
5
3
Worked more from home
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Set up a gym at home
Decided to change jobs
Started homeschooling children3
Renovated/remodeled my home
Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat)
Moved into a bigger home
Moved into a smaller home
Bought a property
Sold a property
Work/study
change
Oct 2021
Pet adoption
House move
Home
renovation
Investments/
divestments
Total2
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
0
−3
1
2
−3
1
0
1
−6
−2
N/A
11
31
9
26
7
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2. Total % of people who choose option(s) in the category.
Consumers are less likely to report working from home and
pursuing renovations than in February 2021
24. McKinsey & Company 24
Three themes are emerging among UK consumers for the 2021
holiday shopping season
Expected strong demand
and online shopping
Consumer demand over the
holidays will likely be strong and
increasingly online
Spend pulled forward Price and convenience to
play key role
Consumers are spending earlier than
before, due to potential product
shortages, shipping delays, and
unexpected challenges
Consumers will increasingly choose
retailers based on promotions,
convenience, and availability
1 2 3
25. McKinsey & Company 25
Baby boomers largely express neutral sentiment about the holiday
shopping season; younger respondents have more divergent views
39
27
34
20
25
30
40 67
36
43
25
11
Baby
boomers2
Gen Z Millennials Gen X
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
28
44
27
Overall
Neutral
Excited/
eager
Stressed/
anxious
Consumer attitudes toward the 2021 holiday shopping season1
% of respondents
By annual income By generation
31 27 26
47
43 41
20
29 33
Medium
(£25k–
50k/year)
Low
(<£25k/year)
High
(>£50k/year)
1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager,“ "Excited," and "Other."
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
26. McKinsey & Company 26
Approximately one in four consumers expect to spend more on
family travel than they did last year
15
7
62
75
18
66
Personal travel
23
Family travel
12
22
Out-of-
home eating
10
76
14
Gifts (for
myself and
others)
13
65
22
Redecorate my
home, put out
seasonal items
6
59
35
Large
household
appliances
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
1. Q: If you compare the upcoming holidays [2021] with the ones last year, how much do you plan to change your spending level in the following categories?
Will spend more Will spend about the same Will spend less
2021 holiday spending plans vs 2020 holiday spending1
% of respondents who spent on the category during the holidays in 2020
23% of consumers expect to spend
more on family travel than they did
last year—which should not be
surprisingly, as lockdown and travel
restrictions have eased
The greatest expected reduction in
spending will be on large household
appliances, possibly due to prior
investment in this category during
lockdown
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
27. McKinsey & Company 27
Retailer websites and stores remain the primary research means
for holiday shopping; Gen Z, millennials plan to use social media
39
36
30
22
18
15
14
13
8
Browsing through holiday markets
Retailer websites
Browsing in stores
Advertisements on TV or streaming media
Social media
Brand websites
Offline advertisements
Emails from relevant retailers
Browsing in pop-up stores
Generational cut
Gen Z Millennials Gen X
Baby
boomers3
30 35 44 41
14 16 6 2
14 14 14 15
17 19 16 10
42 36 36 34
27 24 19 8
32 33 34 24
14 14 12 13
48 37 18 5
Research channels
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
1. Q: Which channels are you planning to use to get new ideas and do research for your holiday shopping? Please select top 3.
2. Offline advertisements include catalogs, fliers, magazines, and newspaper advertisements.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Consumer research plans by channel for holiday 20211
% of all respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
28. McKinsey & Company 28
Social media is expected to have significant influence on holiday
purchase decisions among younger consumers
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
1. Q: How much influence do you expect social media to have on your holiday purchase decisions this season? Selected from "Significant influence," "Some influence," and "Will not influence."
2. Q: Which channels do you think will influence your holiday purchase decisions? Asked of respondents indicating social media will influence their 2021 holiday purchases.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Expected influence of social media on 2021 holiday
purchases,1 % of respondents
56
16
27
62
90
44
84
73
38
10
Gen Z
Millennials
Overall
Gen X
Baby boomers3
Will not influence Will influence
Respondents who expect social-media influence2
% of respondents
38
66
69
57
61
19
45
51
45
46
46
50
30
55
47
67
37
28
42
36
54
27
25
25
24
22
22
15
29
24
45
19
15
19
18
Top 3 platforms by %
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
Facebook YouTube Instagram TikTok Twitter Snapchat
Pinterest
29. McKinsey & Company 29
Consumers are more likely now than in 2020 to travel to see family
over the holidays; baby boomers are the least likely to travel
1. Q: What best describes what you expect to do for the holidays this year [2021]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: What best describes your holiday get-togethers last year [2020]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Split by annual income Split by generation
18 12 11
5 9 8 17 6
29 39 35 36 41 34
13 29
13 15 19 22 21 15
0 8
48 38 28 24 26 40
−18 58
Medium
(£25k–
50k)
Low
(<£25k)
High
(>£50k) Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers3
Change
from 2020,2
percentage
points
Holiday plans in 20211
% of respondents
< −3 Between −3 and 3 >3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
10
35
15
40
Will travel to and attend a large get-together
with family and friends
Will travel to a limited family get-together
Will not travel but will have a family/friends
get-together outside my immediate family
Do not plan to travel and will limit getting together
to immediate family only
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
30. McKinsey & Company 30
The number of in-person holiday-related family gatherings is
expected to be lower than before COVID-19 for all generations
1. Q: About how many in-person holiday-related events do you attend in a typical year without COVID-19?
2. Q: Compared with the number of in-person events you attended pre-COVID-19, about how many in-person events do you expect to attend over the holidays this coming year [2021]?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
4.2
2.1
1.5
Family gatherings
Parties with friends
Work-related gatherings
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Event type
Between −1 and 1
< −1 >1
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers3
Generational cut
4.2 5.3 4.2 3.1
3.2 3.6 1.8 0.8
2.9 2.7 1.3 0.3
Difference in
number vs
pre-COVID-19
−1.7
−1.3
−0.6
Holiday-related events consumers attended1 or expect to attend2 in 2021
Number of events
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
31. McKinsey & Company 31
1. Q: Do you plan to shop for the holidays earlier or later in 2021 compared with last year’s holiday season [2020]? Possible answers: “significantly earlier”; “slightly
earlier”; “starting at about the same time”; “slightly later”; “significantly later”; “I am not planning to do any holiday season shopping.” Figures may not sum to 100%
because of rounding; 12% of consumers surveyed indicated they do not plan to shop for the holidays this year
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
3. Q: What are the primary reasons you plan to shop earlier for the holidays in 2021?
55
27
34
63
Medium
(£25k–50k)
10 11
46
45
9
Low
(<£25k)
High
(>£50k)
Overall
34
56
10
Earlier
Later
About the
same time
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Overall By income By generation
15 12 7 10
39 40
61
73
47 48
33
16
Millennials
Gen Z Gen X Baby
boomers2
Almost 50 percent of Gen Z and millennials plan to start holiday
shopping earlier this year than last year
Main reasons for consumers
to start shopping earlier3
% of respondents who plan to shop
earlier in 2021
47%
39%
26%
47%
Holiday shopping start vs last year1
% of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays this year
of UK consumers are
concerned about
availability
are concerned about
shipping lead time
want to do something
fun right now
are concerned about
unexpected challenges
related to COVID-19
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
32. McKinsey & Company 32
In line with last year, nearly half of consumers have started holiday
shopping; of these, 32 percent have completed at least 75 percent
44
39
14
3
In December
I already started
In November
In January
32
19
49
75–100% of my shopping
50–74% of my shopping
1–49% of my shopping
1. Q: When do you plan to start your shopping for the seasonal holidays this year? Excludes 12% of consumers surveyed indicating they would do no holiday shopping. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: How much of your holiday season shopping have you done so far? Question asked of respondents who indicate they already started.
Timing of holiday shopping, 20211
% of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays this year
Status of holiday shopping, 20212
% of respondents having already started
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
33. McKinsey & Company 33
Three in four consumers anticipate change in shopping behavior
versus last year; 40 percent say they will shop more online
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
11
10
10
Safety
More value for money
Check more things
off my list at once
77
23
17
40
22
25
Shop earlier
Any change of shopping behavior2
Shop at a different place
Shop more at local/independent stores
Shop more online
Shop more in person
1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different from last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Percent of respondents who chose at least 1 behavior that will change vs how they shopped in 2020.
Anticipated different holiday shopping behaviors1
% of respondents said they will do holiday shopping this year
Reasons to change place to shop during holiday
season
% of respondents who said they will do holiday shopping this year
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
34. McKinsey & Company 34
Consumers, particularly Gen X and millennials, plan to shop more
online as well as in person
40
22
25
Shop more online
Shop more in person
Shop earlier
Income cut
Gen Z
Millen-
nials Gen X
Baby
boom-
ers3
Shopping behaviors
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared to last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Percent of respondents indicating they would be shopping differently for the holidays this year vs 2020 (77% of UK consumers).
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Anticipated shopping behavior change for holiday 20211
% of respondents2
Generational cut
47 43
45 28
26 27 20 17
33 32 26 14
37 40 43
19 24 22
21 24 31
Medium
(£25k–
50k)
Low
(<£25k)
High
(>£50k)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
35. McKinsey & Company 35
Convenience, price, and availability are key drivers of where
consumers shop; older generations especially value convenience
Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
23
Company treating its employees well
Product availability
18
Ability to purchase most gifts from 1 place
18
41
34
11
39
18
Better prices/promotions
15
6
12
Cleaner/better hygiene measures
12
Convenience
Easy to shop across store and online
Ability to see products in person
Better shipping/delivery costs
Better quality
Supporting local businesses
Offers unique items
Generational cut
10
50
16
35
35
12
13
7
13
18
3
Gen Z
13
32
23
29
31
22
13
19
14
33
11
19
Millennials
10
31
18
31
39
22
11
17
21
28
8
13
Gen X
11
45
19
36
46
20
11
10
11
23
5
15
Baby
boomers2
23
1. Q: Please tell us what your primary considerations will be when deciding where to shop. Please select up to 3.
2. Baby boomers include traditional or silent generation.
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Primary considerations when deciding where to shop1
% of respondents
Value
Convenience
Availability
Quality
54
54
x Net % of respondents per category
50
23
Uniqueness 12
Health/hygiene 12
Purpose-driven 20
Difference from all respondents, percentage points