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McKinsey Survey: UK consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

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McKinsey Survey: UK consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 Five emerging consumer themes in October 2021 1 2 5 4 3 Spend not splurge – consumers point to muted sales Optimism for an economic rebound has peaked, with young consumers the most optimistic Strongest growth in spend intent for out-of- home entertainment, restaurants, and travel Omnichannel is ascendant Approximately 60% of consumers in the UK research products in an omnichannel way Gen Z and millennials are likeliest to say they are influenced by social media Holiday spend begins early Consumers appear more likely to travel to see family over the holidays; 40% of consumers report shopping more online, and 32% are close to completing their holiday shopping A tentative return to out-of-home About half of consumers are engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities; however, 60 to 75 percent have modified their out-of-home behavior Loyalty shake-up continues Seven in ten UK consumers faced with lack of availability have switched to another brand or retailer
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 15 14 13 17 22 21 22 32 41 49 52 50 46 65 74 67 44 37 35 33 32 14 1 5 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Slightly more than one-third of UK customers expect to see an economic rebound occurring in the next two to three months 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021 US Germany 10/15–22 10/9–15 Italy 10/15–22 France 10/15–22 Change in % optimistic vs Feb survey, percentage points +3 UK 10/15–22 +3 +13 +14 +18 Spain 10/15–22 +16 India 10/18–25 +3 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey China 10/17–22 +6 +2 Japan 10/18–20 17 50 33
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 25 26 30 30 37 31 18 17 54 58 54 55 47 52 53 50 21 16 16 15 17 17 30 33 Oct 2021 Feb 2021 Nov 2020 June 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Sept 2020 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n= 1,027; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,089; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020, n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600, 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Overall optimism remains strong in October 2021 compared with perspectives in 2020 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6-12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID- 19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession 20202 2021 Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 The most optimistic consumers are the youngest (Gen Z) and those who are unvaccinated Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years By generation By vaccination status 17 16 52 40 31 44 Vaccinated Unvaccinated 10 16 21 17 38 44 52 58 52 40 27 25 Gen Z Baby boomers2 Millennials Gen X Optimistic Pessimistic Mixed Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 27 23 29 27 12 10 7 5 61 67 64 68 Baby boomers3 Millennials Gen Z Gen X 25 35 7 8 68 57 Unvaccinated Vaccinated 26 8 66 Overall 1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK´s Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; sampled to match UK general population 18+ years In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned By generation By vaccination status2 There is no significant difference across generations in expectations on when routines will return to normal Unvaccinated consumers are more likely than those vaccinated to be engaging in their normal routines (35% vs 25% vaccinated), reflecting their greater optimism overall Approximately one in four consumers have returned to ‘normal’ routines, while the majority expect this to happen in 2022 or later Expectations on routines returning to ‘normal,’1 % of respondents Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 An increasing portion of consumers indicate that their income, spending, and savings stayed about the same in the past two weeks About the same Reduced slightly/a lot Increased slightly/a lot 70 Past 2 weeks 9 57 60 12 34 29 Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 23 7 Past 2 weeks 14 Past 2 weeks 45 20 37 41 43 Past 2 weeks 31 54 15 42 Past 2 weeks 37 21 22 44 34 Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 22 24 54 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,089, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 2 weeks?; Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Household income Household spending Household savings Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021 COVID-19 impact on household finances,1 % of respondents
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Consumers are evenly split between those whose finances have returned to normal and those expecting this in 2022 or later 1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years By generation By vaccination status2 ~70% of baby boomers say their finances either were not affected or are back to normal, vs ~30% for Gen Z and millennials Expectations on personal/household finances returning to normal,1 % of respondents 30 32 44 69 12 9 58 59 52 29 Gen X Gen Z Millennials Baby boomers3 4 2 49 40 5 8 46 52 Unvaccinated Vaccinated In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned 47 6 47 Overall Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021 Consumers are less likely to splurge than in early 2021, with older consumers being particularly cautious 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and half which you feel you will spend more on now? 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 57% 1 56% 0 Gen Z 64% 0 44% −1 49% −8 60% −18 16% −1 11% −11 11% −22 18% −13 29% −8 39% −7 Generation 2 Respondents who plan/do not plan to splurge/treat themselves in 20211 % of respondents Low (<£25k/year) Middle (£25k–50k/year) High (>£50k/year) >70% <30% 50–70% 30–50% pp change from Feb 21 XX Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, % Oct 2021 Plan on splurging 47 Feb 2021 53 33 67 Do not plan on splurging Change < −10 pp .
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Gen Z consumers intend to splurge on cosmetics and apparel, Gen X and baby boomers on travel and eating out Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1 % of all respondents with intent to splurge 1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 6 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 23 16 35 Sports apparel and equipment 21 30 28 Outdoor living 26 26 25 25 18 17 16 Household essentials Restaurants, dining out, bars Apparel, shoes, accessories Items for your home Electronics Travel, lodging, and vacation Fitness, sports, and outdoors Makeup, skin-care products Personal services Out-of-home entertainment Pets Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 45 28 39 33 45 30 26 13 24 32 25 24 30 28 28 11 21 17 37 43 42 28 12 9 23 28 25 20 24 30 17 11 27 14 29 22 Generational cut 21 20 16 13 23 20 9 9 23 16 16 4 15 17 16 11 Change from Feb 2021, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 −18 −5 −1 1 −29 N/A −13 3 −12 −7 N/A N/A N/A Categories Difference from all respondents, percentage points Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Consumers intend to reduce in spending—except on groceries and petrol—with some improvement versus February 2021 Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021 Net intent >1 Net intent −15 to 0 Net intent: < −15 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 9 22 31 23 32 32 33 31 36 42 19 9 9 20 40 32 41 32 25 14 9 16 8 11 16 7 22 8 11 13 14 12 12 Restaurant Quick-service restaurant Alcohol Groceries Tobacco products Food takeout and delivery Skin care and makeup Footwear Kitchen and dining Apparel Jewelry 10 Accessories Toys and baby Household supplies Personal-care products Home and furniture Sports and outdoors Home improvement, garden 10 10 Decrease Stay the same Increase 8 15 12 19 41 30 18 25 26 15 33 36 18 27 37 46 42 39 11 13 9 8 18 13 19 9 24 11 17 20 24 14 16 16 17 Vitamins and OTC medicine Pet food and supplies Pet-care services Entertainment at home Gasoline Books, magazines, newspapers Out-of-home entertainment Consumer electronics Fitness and wellness Personal-care services Vehicles Short-term home rentals Travel by car Hotel/resort stays Cruises Adventures and tours International flights Domestic flights 10 Net intent2 −3 −11 −31 −12 −5 −6 −17 9 −19 2 −3 −23 −30 −26 −2 −22 1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1 % of respondents who bought these categories at least once since 2019 6 −1 0 7 12 50 22 26 26 17 31 4 5 13 6 16 −15 10 Change since Feb 2021, pp Change since Feb 2021, pp 3 3 8 −6 11 10 43 18 33 32 45 14 40 36 48 33 35 38 −22 36 Net intent2 −20 16 3 1 −27 −12 −21 −-9 −23 −16 −25 20 35 −1 −9 −18 −29 −20
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 −40 −50 −80 −60 −30 0 −70 20 10 −10 −20 Consumer electronics Mar 2020 Out-of-home entertainment Apparel International flights Personal-care products Oct 2021 Feb 2020 Nov 2020 Fitness and wellness Sept 2020 June 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Groceries Skin care and makeup Domestic flights Household supplies Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1 Net intent2 Spending net intent in discretionary categories is increasing 1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Optimism driving higher spending | Current as of October 2021 2020 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,089; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020, n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600, 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 37 36 31 27 27 27 25 25 22 20 19 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 63 57 62 64 64 62 67 66 58 64 64 66 70 68 70 56 62 64 66 67 70 65 65 53 7 7 9 9 11 8 9 20 16 17 18 15 17 16 30 25 24 23 23 21 26 27 41 Footwear Personal-care products Meal at restaurant Tobacco products and smoking supplies Alcoholic beverages Household supplies Home decoration and furniture Groceries/food for home Meal at quick-service restaurant Pet food and supplies Skin care and makeup Vitamins, supplements, and over-the-counter medicine Books, magazines, newspapers Vehicles Home improvement and gardening supplies Fitness and wellness services Kitchen and dining Food takeout and delivery Accessories (eg, handbags, sunglasses) Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Toys and baby supplies Jewelry Consumer electronics Apparel Research and purchase only in store Omnichannel Research and purchase only online About 60 percent of consumers do research in omnichannel, with the highest share of online in consumer electronics and fashion Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021 Product searches1 and purchases2 by channel % of respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months? 2. Q: Which best describes how you have purchased the following categories over the last 3 months?
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Social-media influence is strongest among Gen Z and millennials 1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced toward a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories? 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 41 38 37 34 34 33 29 28 28 26 25 25 23 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 14 13 12 Vehicles Jewelry Fitness and wellness services Home decoration and furniture Accessories (eg, handbags, sunglasses) Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Toys and baby supplies Skin care and makeup Kitchen and dining Footwear Home improvement and gardening supplies Consumer electronics Apparel Food takeout, delivery Vitamins, supplements, and over-the-counter medicine Meal at restaurant Books, magazines, newspapers Meal at quick-service restaurant Tobacco products and smoking supplies Alcoholic beverages Household supplies Personal-care products Pet food and supplies Groceries/food for home Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 53 33 14 49 48 28 7 58 44 23 8 26 51 27 3 53 43 21 5 58 51 22 5 27 45 26 2 52 42 19 4 42 41 18 7 Generational cut 47 41 18 3 47 50 18 3 50 40 21 4 46 43 16 3 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Categories Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1 % of respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months 24 30 39 38 31 31 37 15 18 17 2 2 4 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 24 25 13 4 25 31 13 4 20 23 10 2 18 29 14 1 27 30 22 29 28 26 11 12 9 2 1 2 22 23 11 1 Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 1. Q: And have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Consumers reported more frequent cooking, usage of self-checkout, and secondhand shopping Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021 25 7 29 30 12 13 10 19 8 14 7 11 25 6 17 22 53 57 52 38 29 16 38 14 29 46 12 52 16 36 11 56 61 35 10 5 32 26 53 14 7 43 48 42 30 41 43 45 46 57 10 38 39 46 15 10 48 40 12 58 12 9 49 6 45 46 10 68 Using less Using about the same Using more Frequency of using/doing1 % shown among consumers who have participated in the activity in the last 3 months Used or did in last 3 months % of total respondents Drive-thru line for a fast-food restaurant Curbside pickup from a restaurant Used a food delivery provider Self-checkout or scan-and-go at a physical store Buy online, pick up in store Curbside delivery at a store Purchased secondhand products online Downloaded/used deal-finding plug-ins Downloaded/used a new store/restaurant app Purchased directly from social media Used an app/website for same-day delivery Used an app/website for delivery within 1 hour Shopped at a store I had not shopped at before for groceries Changed my primary grocery store Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care/grooming at home Tried making something myself/DIY project
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Social media, digital workouts, and online game playing greatly accelerated in the past three months 1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? Q: Which best describes how often you have used each of the following items in the past three months? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021 52 40 38 47 34 42 16 15 58 37 11 31 10 51 13 33 9 51 53 36 33 36 10 56 54 34 56 55 39 13 19 6 44 43 39 9 36 10 9 9 45 48 7 40 54 42 49 61 30 8 27 Frequency of using/doing1 % shown among consumers who have participated in the activity in the last 3 months Using more Using less Using about the same Used or did in last 3 months % of total respondents Wellness app (eg, meditation, balanced living) Digital workout bike or machine Online personal training/fitness Grocery delivery Restaurant food delivery Meal kit delivery Online streaming Video conferencing for professional use Virtual hangouts and video chats for personal use Telemedicine for physical health care Telemedicine for mental health care Playing online games Watching online games Remote learning for myself Remote learning for my kids Used social media Used TikTok 8 9 5 10 36 43 56 17 13 5 17 8 5 18 8 23 61
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 About half of consumers have encountered stock shortages, leading most often to retailer or brand substitution 1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available? 2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 49 51 Able to purchase all items Could not purchase at least 1 item Oct 2021 Respondents who planned to purchase something but could not, due to unavailability1 % of respondents 33 31 7 11 18 Bought a different brand or similar product at a different retailer Waited until the product was available at the same retailer Bought a different product at the same retailer Bought the product at a different retailer Did not buy anything Consumer responses to stockouts2 % of respondents who could not make a planned purchase Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 58 34 30 21 16 14 Different retailer/store/website Any new shopping behavior New digital shopping method Different brand Private label/store brand New shopping method2 Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years All consumers Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 42% replied “None of these.” 2. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Behaviors in the past 3 months1 % of respondents who have tried a new shopping behavior Changes in shopping behavior in the last three months have been much more extensive among younger consumers Difference from all respondents percentage points Gen Z Millennials 88 79 60 41 48 43 26 31 27 28 12 2 Generational cut Gen X Baby boomers3 57 30 35 20 23 11 14 4 28 24 30 12
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents who tried a new brand since COVID-19 began Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 19 Better prices/promotions Is more sustainable/better for the environment 8 Better value Larger package sizes Wanted to try a new brand I found Is natural/organic Better shipping/delivery cost Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before Supporting local businesses 7 Shares my values 30 The company treats its employees well 11 Wanted to treat myself Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine Better quality Products are in stock Is available where I’m shopping Cleaner/has better hygiene measures 35 13 21 17 5 7 7 14 11 17 13 6 Quality/organic Availability Purpose-driven Personal choice Convenience Health/hygiene Novelty 33 Value 64 25 24 23 13 6 19 Baby boomers2 Gen Z + millennials Gen X 33 36 39 26 29 39 16 2 16 12 - 3 17 25 26 11 31 16 10 11 13 6 7 7 10 2 6 7 2 4 19 4 11 11 15 9 20 11 17 13 4 4 18 22 20 16 15 6 7 5 3 All consumers Between −2 and 2 < −2 >2 Value was a primary reason for brand switch among all generations, especially Gen X x Net % of respondents per category Difference from all respondents percentage points
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 44 9 10 27 28 4 Sept 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2021 Feb 2021 June 2020 May 2020 Overall Vaccinated 54 Unvaccinated 43 Gen X Millennials Gen Z Baby boomers3 39 45 49 44 45 Low (<£25k) 45 High (>£50k) Medium (£25k–50k) 43 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. 2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years By generation2 By vaccination adoption By income 44% of baby boomers are doing out-of-home activities 43% of lower-income households are doing out-of-home activities 55% of people who are unvaccinated are doing out-of-home activities Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents Almost half of UK consumers say they are engaging in ‘normal’ out- of-home activities
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1 % shown for respondents who engaged in the activity at least once prior to COVID-19 Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past 2 weeks? Social Personal care Entertain- ment 51 21 24 25 35 34 61 57 54 Visit a crowded outdoor public place Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar Go to a hair or nail salon Attend an indoor cultural event Go out for family entertainment Attend an outdoor event Go to the gym or fitness studio Get together with family Get together with friends 71 88 69 48 31 55 47 11 34 18 20 Travel by airplane Work outside my home Shop for groceries/necessities Shop for non-necessities Go to a shopping mall Travel more than 2 hours by car Use public transportation Use a ride-sharing service Travel by train Stay in a hotel Rent a short-term home Work Shopping Transport/ travel ≥50% <50% Consumers increasingly work outside home and engage in commuting, shopping, and in-person social interaction
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21 1. Q: With the rise of the Delta variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 6 24 26 25 37 36 38 34 32 32 5 Low (<£25k) Medium (£25k–50k) 5 High (>£50k) Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 11 24 29 38 31 34 29 4 Vaccinated Unvaccinated 25 37 33 Overall 5 Engage more Engage less Engage with adjusted behavior Engage same as before Delta By income By vaccination status Unvaccinated consumers are less likely to reduce or change their out-of- home behavior despite the Delta variant Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of Delta variant,1 % of respondents Roughly 70 percent of consumers have changed the way they engage in out-of-home activities because of the Delta variant
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19, but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs pre-COVID-19”; “Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.” Work Shopping Transport/ travel Social Personal care Entertain- ment Attend an indoor cultural event 36 32 Go to a hair or nail salon 68 59 Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar Go out for family entertainment 64 60 41 36 34 64 40 30 Attend an outdoor event 36 64 Visit a crowded outdoor public place 66 70 Go to the gym or fitness studio Get together with family 37 63 Get together with friends Go to a shopping mall 26 Stay in a hotel 69 27 74 28 Work outside my home 73 Shop for groceries/necessities 31 Shop for non-necessities 32 68 72 47 43 53 Travel more than 2 hours by car 36 64 Use public transportation Use a ride-sharing service 37 41 Travel by airplane 59 63 57 43 57 Rent a short-term home Travel by train Doing less, doing in a modified way Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19 Engagement in out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents Depending on the category, approximately 60 to 75 percent of consumers have modified their out-of-home behavior
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23 Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191 % of respondents Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,027, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 23 8 4 13 11 9 11 5 4 5 3 Worked more from home Set up a specific work-from-home space Set up a gym at home Decided to change jobs Started homeschooling children3 Renovated/remodeled my home Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat) Moved into a bigger home Moved into a smaller home Bought a property Sold a property Work/study change Oct 2021 Pet adoption House move Home renovation Investments/ divestments Total2 Change from Feb 2021, percentage points 0 −3 1 2 −3 1 0 1 −6 −2 N/A 11 31 9 26 7 1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 2. Total % of people who choose option(s) in the category. Consumers are less likely to report working from home and pursuing renovations than in February 2021
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Three themes are emerging among UK consumers for the 2021 holiday shopping season Expected strong demand and online shopping Consumer demand over the holidays will likely be strong and increasingly online Spend pulled forward Price and convenience to play key role Consumers are spending earlier than before, due to potential product shortages, shipping delays, and unexpected challenges Consumers will increasingly choose retailers based on promotions, convenience, and availability 1 2 3
  25. 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Baby boomers largely express neutral sentiment about the holiday shopping season; younger respondents have more divergent views 39 27 34 20 25 30 40 67 36 43 25 11 Baby boomers2 Gen Z Millennials Gen X Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 28 44 27 Overall Neutral Excited/ eager Stressed/ anxious Consumer attitudes toward the 2021 holiday shopping season1 % of respondents By annual income By generation 31 27 26 47 43 41 20 29 33 Medium (£25k– 50k/year) Low (<£25k/year) High (>£50k/year) 1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager,“ "Excited," and "Other." 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  26. 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Approximately one in four consumers expect to spend more on family travel than they did last year 15 7 62 75 18 66 Personal travel 23 Family travel 12 22 Out-of- home eating 10 76 14 Gifts (for myself and others) 13 65 22 Redecorate my home, put out seasonal items 6 59 35 Large household appliances Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: If you compare the upcoming holidays [2021] with the ones last year, how much do you plan to change your spending level in the following categories? Will spend more Will spend about the same Will spend less 2021 holiday spending plans vs 2020 holiday spending1 % of respondents who spent on the category during the holidays in 2020 23% of consumers expect to spend more on family travel than they did last year—which should not be surprisingly, as lockdown and travel restrictions have eased The greatest expected reduction in spending will be on large household appliances, possibly due to prior investment in this category during lockdown Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  27. 27. McKinsey & Company 27 Retailer websites and stores remain the primary research means for holiday shopping; Gen Z, millennials plan to use social media 39 36 30 22 18 15 14 13 8 Browsing through holiday markets Retailer websites Browsing in stores Advertisements on TV or streaming media Social media Brand websites Offline advertisements Emails from relevant retailers Browsing in pop-up stores Generational cut Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 30 35 44 41 14 16 6 2 14 14 14 15 17 19 16 10 42 36 36 34 27 24 19 8 32 33 34 24 14 14 12 13 48 37 18 5 Research channels Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 1. Q: Which channels are you planning to use to get new ideas and do research for your holiday shopping? Please select top 3. 2. Offline advertisements include catalogs, fliers, magazines, and newspaper advertisements. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Consumer research plans by channel for holiday 20211 % of all respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  28. 28. McKinsey & Company 28 Social media is expected to have significant influence on holiday purchase decisions among younger consumers Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: How much influence do you expect social media to have on your holiday purchase decisions this season? Selected from "Significant influence," "Some influence," and "Will not influence." 2. Q: Which channels do you think will influence your holiday purchase decisions? Asked of respondents indicating social media will influence their 2021 holiday purchases. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Expected influence of social media on 2021 holiday purchases,1 % of respondents 56 16 27 62 90 44 84 73 38 10 Gen Z Millennials Overall Gen X Baby boomers3 Will not influence Will influence Respondents who expect social-media influence2 % of respondents 38 66 69 57 61 19 45 51 45 46 46 50 30 55 47 67 37 28 42 36 54 27 25 25 24 22 22 15 29 24 45 19 15 19 18 Top 3 platforms by % Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021 Facebook YouTube Instagram TikTok Twitter Snapchat Pinterest
  29. 29. McKinsey & Company 29 Consumers are more likely now than in 2020 to travel to see family over the holidays; baby boomers are the least likely to travel 1. Q: What best describes what you expect to do for the holidays this year [2021]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: What best describes your holiday get-togethers last year [2020]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Split by annual income Split by generation 18 12 11 5 9 8 17 6 29 39 35 36 41 34 13 29 13 15 19 22 21 15 0 8 48 38 28 24 26 40 −18 58 Medium (£25k– 50k) Low (<£25k) High (>£50k) Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 Change from 2020,2 percentage points Holiday plans in 20211 % of respondents < −3 Between −3 and 3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 10 35 15 40 Will travel to and attend a large get-together with family and friends Will travel to a limited family get-together Will not travel but will have a family/friends get-together outside my immediate family Do not plan to travel and will limit getting together to immediate family only Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  30. 30. McKinsey & Company 30 The number of in-person holiday-related family gatherings is expected to be lower than before COVID-19 for all generations 1. Q: About how many in-person holiday-related events do you attend in a typical year without COVID-19? 2. Q: Compared with the number of in-person events you attended pre-COVID-19, about how many in-person events do you expect to attend over the holidays this coming year [2021]? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 4.2 2.1 1.5 Family gatherings Parties with friends Work-related gatherings Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Event type Between −1 and 1 < −1 >1 Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 Generational cut 4.2 5.3 4.2 3.1 3.2 3.6 1.8 0.8 2.9 2.7 1.3 0.3 Difference in number vs pre-COVID-19 −1.7 −1.3 −0.6 Holiday-related events consumers attended1 or expect to attend2 in 2021 Number of events Difference from all respondents, percentage points Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  31. 31. McKinsey & Company 31 1. Q: Do you plan to shop for the holidays earlier or later in 2021 compared with last year’s holiday season [2020]? Possible answers: “significantly earlier”; “slightly earlier”; “starting at about the same time”; “slightly later”; “significantly later”; “I am not planning to do any holiday season shopping.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding; 12% of consumers surveyed indicated they do not plan to shop for the holidays this year 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 3. Q: What are the primary reasons you plan to shop earlier for the holidays in 2021? 55 27 34 63 Medium (£25k–50k) 10 11 46 45 9 Low (<£25k) High (>£50k) Overall 34 56 10 Earlier Later About the same time Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Overall By income By generation 15 12 7 10 39 40 61 73 47 48 33 16 Millennials Gen Z Gen X Baby boomers2 Almost 50 percent of Gen Z and millennials plan to start holiday shopping earlier this year than last year Main reasons for consumers to start shopping earlier3 % of respondents who plan to shop earlier in 2021 47% 39% 26% 47% Holiday shopping start vs last year1 % of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays this year of UK consumers are concerned about availability are concerned about shipping lead time want to do something fun right now are concerned about unexpected challenges related to COVID-19 Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  32. 32. McKinsey & Company 32 In line with last year, nearly half of consumers have started holiday shopping; of these, 32 percent have completed at least 75 percent 44 39 14 3 In December I already started In November In January 32 19 49 75–100% of my shopping 50–74% of my shopping 1–49% of my shopping 1. Q: When do you plan to start your shopping for the seasonal holidays this year? Excludes 12% of consumers surveyed indicating they would do no holiday shopping. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: How much of your holiday season shopping have you done so far? Question asked of respondents who indicate they already started. Timing of holiday shopping, 20211 % of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays this year Status of holiday shopping, 20212 % of respondents having already started Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
  33. 33. McKinsey & Company 33 Three in four consumers anticipate change in shopping behavior versus last year; 40 percent say they will shop more online Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 11 10 10 Safety More value for money Check more things off my list at once 77 23 17 40 22 25 Shop earlier Any change of shopping behavior2 Shop at a different place Shop more at local/independent stores Shop more online Shop more in person 1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different from last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Percent of respondents who chose at least 1 behavior that will change vs how they shopped in 2020. Anticipated different holiday shopping behaviors1 % of respondents said they will do holiday shopping this year Reasons to change place to shop during holiday season % of respondents who said they will do holiday shopping this year Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  34. 34. McKinsey & Company 34 Consumers, particularly Gen X and millennials, plan to shop more online as well as in person 40 22 25 Shop more online Shop more in person Shop earlier Income cut Gen Z Millen- nials Gen X Baby boom- ers3 Shopping behaviors Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared to last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Percent of respondents indicating they would be shopping differently for the holidays this year vs 2020 (77% of UK consumers). 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Anticipated shopping behavior change for holiday 20211 % of respondents2 Generational cut 47 43 45 28 26 27 20 17 33 32 26 14 37 40 43 19 24 22 21 24 31 Medium (£25k– 50k) Low (<£25k) High (>£50k) Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021
  35. 35. McKinsey & Company 35 Convenience, price, and availability are key drivers of where consumers shop; older generations especially value convenience Holiday spend begins early | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,019, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 23 Company treating its employees well Product availability 18 Ability to purchase most gifts from 1 place 18 41 34 11 39 18 Better prices/promotions 15 6 12 Cleaner/better hygiene measures 12 Convenience Easy to shop across store and online Ability to see products in person Better shipping/delivery costs Better quality Supporting local businesses Offers unique items Generational cut 10 50 16 35 35 12 13 7 13 18 3 Gen Z 13 32 23 29 31 22 13 19 14 33 11 19 Millennials 10 31 18 31 39 22 11 17 21 28 8 13 Gen X 11 45 19 36 46 20 11 10 11 23 5 15 Baby boomers2 23 1. Q: Please tell us what your primary considerations will be when deciding where to shop. Please select up to 3. 2. Baby boomers include traditional or silent generation. Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Primary considerations when deciding where to shop1 % of respondents Value Convenience Availability Quality 54 54 x Net % of respondents per category 50 23 Uniqueness 12 Health/hygiene 12 Purpose-driven 20 Difference from all respondents, percentage points

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