Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
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Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
- 1. Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., Chief Economist, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Mike McGrew, 2014 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Treasurer Presentation at NAR Leadership Summit Chicago, IL August 27, 2013
- 2. Existing Home Sales 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,500,000 7,000,000 7,500,000 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan $8,000
- 3. Existing Home Inventory (Bouncing at 13-year lows) 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan
- 4. New Home Sales 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Up 30%
- 5. New Home Inventory (Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50-year low) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan
- 6. Shadow Inventory (% of Loans in foreclosure process or more than 90 days late) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 U.S.
- 7. State Differences in Shadow Inventory 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000-Q1 2000-Q4 2001-Q3 2002-Q2 2003-Q1 2003-Q4 2004-Q3 2005-Q2 2006-Q1 2006-Q4 2007-Q3 2008-Q2 2009-Q1 2009-Q4 2010-Q3 2011-Q2 2012-Q1 2012-Q4 Maryland Virginia
- 8. Housing Starts … Need to Reach 1.5 million soon or persistent housing shortage 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan multifamily single-family Thousand units (annualized) Long-term Average
- 9. Existing vs. New Home Price … Big Gap (single-family homes) 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-Jul New Existing
- 10. Home Price Forecast by Wall Street Journal Economists Panel Year WSJ Home Price Forecast 2013 7% 2014 5%
- 12. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (been below 6% for 5 years) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000-Jan 2000-Aug 2001-Mar 2001-Oct 2002-May 2002-Dec 2003-Jul 2004-Feb 2004-Sep 2005-Apr 2005-Nov 2006-Jun 2007-Jan 2007-Aug 2008-Mar 2008-Oct 2009-May 2009-Dec 2010-Jul 2011-Feb 2011-Sep 2012-Apr 2012-Nov 2013-Jun %
- 14. Buyer and Seller Traffic from REALTOR® Survey 0 20 40 60 80 2008-Jan 2008-Apr 2008-Jul 2008-Oct 2009-Jan 2009-Apr 2009-Jul 2009-Oct 2010-Jan 2010-Apr 2010-Jul 2010-Oct 2011-Jan 2011-Apr 2011-Jul 2011-Oct 2012-Jan 2012-Apr 2012-Jul 2012-Oct 2013-Jan 2013-Apr 2013-Jul Buyer Seller
- 15. All-Cash Buyers (% as total) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2008-Oct 2009-Jan 2009-Apr 2009-Jul 2009-Oct 2010-Jan 2010-Apr 2010-Jul 2010-Oct 2011-Jan 2011-Apr 2011-Jul 2011-Oct 2012-Jan 2012-Apr 2012-Jul 2012-Oct 2013-Jan 2013-Apr 2013-Jul Normal Range
- 16. First-time Homebuyers (% as total) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2008-Oct 2009-Jan 2009-Apr 2009-Jul 2009-Oct 2010-Jan 2010-Apr 2010-Jul 2010-Oct 2011-Jan 2011-Apr 2011-Jul 2011-Oct 2012-Jan 2012-Apr 2012-Jul 2012-Oct 2013-Jan 2013-Apr 2013-Jul 1st-time Buyers Normal Range
- 18. Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 1980-Q1 1981-Q1 1982-Q1 1983-Q1 1984-Q1 1985-Q1 1986-Q1 1987-Q1 1988-Q1 1989-Q1 1990-Q1 1991-Q1 1992-Q1 1993-Q1 1994-Q1 1995-Q1 1996-Q1 1997-Q1 1998-Q1 1999-Q1 2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 In thousands
- 19. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth) $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 Renter Owner 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2014 2014 Forecast by NAR Bubble Crash • Dodd-Frank? • PATH? • Lawsuits? • Legacy?
- 20. U.S. Total Payroll Jobs 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-May In thousands
- 21. Financial Industry High Profits … Ready to Dial Down Credit Stringency? -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2001-Q1 2001-Q3 2002-Q1 2002-Q3 2003-Q1 2003-Q3 2004-Q1 2004-Q3 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 2006-Q1 2006-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q1 2009-Q3 2010-Q1 2010-Q3 2011-Q1 2011-Q3 2012-Q1 2012-Q3 2013-Q1 $ billion
- 22. Forecast 2011 2012 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +1.6% +2.6% Existing Home Sales 4.3 million 4.7 million 5.1 million 5.2 million Housing Starts 610 K 780 K 1.0 million (not enough) 1.2 million (not enough) Existing Home Price Growth - 4% + 6% + 11% + 6% 30-yr Mortgage Rate (year-end) 4.7% 3.5% 4.6% 5.2%
- 23. Summary on What to Expect • Likely Multiyear Housing Recovery – No recession – Job growth and household formation – Lagging housing starts and continuing housing shortage • Home prices are primed to rise further, by 16% cumulatively in 2013 and 2014
- 24. What’s the Matter with Canada? • Digging Earth • Arms
- 25. What’s the Matter with Kansas? Who said “There is no place like home” Who was raised in KS and was imbued with strong moral compass?
- 26. #1 Jayhawks Fan!
- 27. Primary Drivers of Membership • Existing Home Sales and Real Home Price Growth – Lagged effect • Job Market Conditions – More members if high unemployment
- 28. REALTOR® Median Gross Income $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est How many with more than $100,000? … 200,000 How many with less than $10,000? … 360,000
- 30. Part-time Workers not by Choice … Those who may try out real estate 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2000-Jan 2000-Aug 2001-Mar 2001-Oct 2002-May 2002-Dec 2003-Jul 2004-Feb 2004-Sep 2005-Apr 2005-Nov 2006-Jun 2007-Jan 2007-Aug 2008-Mar 2008-Oct 2009-May 2009-Dec 2010-Jul 2011-Feb 2011-Sep 2012-Apr 2012-Nov 2013-Jun Part-time for Economic Reasons