5. NATIONAL PENDING SALES INDEX – GOOD SIGNS
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
2014 -
Jan
2014 -
Mar
2014 -
May
2014 -
Jul
2014 -
Sep
2014 -
Nov
2015 -
Jan
2015 -
Mar
2015 -
May
2015 -
Jul
2015 -
Sep
2015 -
Nov
2016 -
Jan
2016 -
Mar
Source: NAR
7. REGIONAL MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE
(3-YEAR PRICE CHANGE FROM 2012 TO 2015)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Northeast Midwest South West
8. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INCOME GAP
AT 3.8% MORTGAGE RATE
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Northeast Midwest South West
Actual Income
Qualifying Income
9. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INCOME GAP
AT 6% MORTGAGE RATE
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Northeast Midwest South West
Actual Income
Qualifying Income
Higher Qualifying Income
11. NEW HOME SALES – STILL SUPER LOW
(75% DECLINE AND 60% GAIN)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
12. SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS –
GROSSLY INADEQUATEThousand units
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
13. RISING SHARE OF PRICEY NEW HOMES
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Under $200,000 $200,000 range Over $300,000
14. NEW HOME PRICE VS. EXISTING HOME PRICE
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2005-Jan
2005-Jul
2006-Jan
2006-Jul
2007-Jan
2007-Jul
2008-Jan
2008-Jul
2009-Jan
2009-Jul
2010-Jan
2010-Jul
2011-Jan
2011-Jul
2012-Jan
2012-Jul
2013-Jan
2013-Jul
2014-Jan
2014-Jul
2015-Jan
2015-Jul
2016-Jan
New
Existing
17. EVEN LOWER INVENTORY
IN RELATION TO HOUSEHOLDS
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
18. MULTIFAMILY HOUSING STARTS –
SUFFICIENTLY ADEQUATE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
22. RELIEF ON RENT?
• If higher rent then higher inflation and
higher mortgage rates
• If lower rent than lower inflation and
steady mortgage rates
23. WIDENING METRO HOME PRICES
(640% VS. 241% GROWTH FROM 1980)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1980-Q1
1981-Q1
1982-Q1
1983-Q1
1984-Q1
1985-Q1
1986-Q1
1987-Q1
1988-Q1
1989-Q1
1990-Q1
1991-Q1
1992-Q1
1993-Q1
1994-Q1
1995-Q1
1996-Q1
1997-Q1
1998-Q1
1999-Q1
2000-Q1
2001-Q1
2002-Q1
2003-Q1
2004-Q1
2005-Q1
2006-Q1
2007-Q1
2008-Q1
2009-Q1
2010-Q1
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
2013-Q1
2014-Q1
2015-Q1
2016-Q1
San Francisco Indianapolis
$ thousand
24. SAN FRANCISCO AREA OUTMIGRATION
• 47,894 out of SF County
• 37,378 out of San Mateo County
• 73,925 out of Santa Clara County
• 71,551 out of Alameda County
• Seattle
• Portland
• Boise
• Salt Lake City
• Denver
• Austin
• Raleigh
25. WIDENING JOBS
MOBILE AND CHARLESTON SC
150
200
250
300
350
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
In thousands
29. JOBS
(8 MILLION LOST … 14 MILLION GAINED)
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
2000-Jan
2000-Jul
2001-Jan
2001-Jul
2002-Jan
2002-Jul
2003-Jan
2003-Jul
2004-Jan
2004-Jul
2005-Jan
2005-Jul
2006-Jan
2006-Jul
2007-Jan
2007-Jul
2008-Jan
2008-Jul
2009-Jan
2009-Jul
2010-Jan
2010-Jul
2011-Jan
2011-Jul
2012-Jan
2012-Jul
2013-Jan
2013-Jul
2014-Jan
2014-Jul
2015-Jan
2015-Jul
2016-Jan
In thousands
30. TOP AND BOTTOM STATES FOR JOBS
The Best % Gain in 12 months
Idaho 3.8
Utah 3.5
Nevada 3.4
Florida 3.0
Washington 3.0
California 2.9
South Carolina 2.9
Oregon 2.7
Arizona 2.3
The Worst % Gain in 12 months
Wyoming 0.2
Oklahoma 0.1
Louisiana -0.4
West Virginia -1.8
North Dakota -2.0
33. JOBS IN NORTH DAKOTA
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
In thousands
35. WHO’S ON DECK AFTER PUERTO RICO?
States (worst and best) Unfunded Liability %
Illinois 57%
Kentucky 50%
Connecticut 47%
Louisiana 44%
New Hampshire 43%
Tennessee 8%
North Carolina 5%
South Dakota 4%
Washington 2%
Wisconsin 0%
36. BIGGEST LIES OCCUR …
• After Fishing
• During a War
• Before an Election
37. FEDERAL DEBT … CUMULATIVE
( $ MILLION; DEBT HELD BY PUBLIC EXCLUDING
INTRA-GOVERNMENTAL HOLDINGS)
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2001
- Jan
2002
- Jan
2003
- Jan
2004
- Jan
2005
- Jan
2006
- Jan
2007
- Jan
2008
- Jan
2009
- Jan
2010
- Jan
2011
- Jan
2012
- Jan
2013
- Jan
2014
- Jan
2015
- Jan
43. MORTGAGE RATES SAY TODAY’S HOMEBUYERS
ARE LUCKIEST IN A GENERATION
0
5
10
15
20
1971
- Jan
1974
- Jan
1977
- Jan
1980
- Jan
1983
- Jan
1986
- Jan
1989
- Jan
1992
- Jan
1995
- Jan
1998
- Jan
2001
- Jan
2004
- Jan
2007
- Jan
2010
- Jan
2013
- Jan
2016
- Jan
%
54. POLLS: PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE TRUMP OR CLINTON!
SAY NO TO DEMOCRACY AND
YES TO PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS?
Singapore
-
– Had no Democracy
– Higher per capita income than U.S.
– Futuristic city
– English: official language
– Strong private property rights protection