Community Adaptation Workshop in Peregian Beach Community House, 3 March 2011

2. “I think we have a very brief
window of opportunity to
deal with climate change –
no longer than a decade, at
the most….”
If we continue with business
as usual, “we will be
producing a different
planet.”
Dr. James Hansen
Director, NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies
Photos: Noosa Integrated Catchment Association, Inc.
September 14, 2006

3. What is climate change?
A change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere
and which is in addition to natural
climate variability over comparable
time periods.
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

4. What is adaptation?
Adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic
changes or their effect, which
moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities.
(Queensland Government, 2010)
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
ttp://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

5. Adaptation
“… preparing for the impacts
and managing the risks of
climate change that is
already committed to by
past emissions and those
in the near future”.
(CSIRO 2006)

6. The IPCC:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 2500+ SCIENTIFIC EXPERT REVIEWERS
 800+ CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS AND
 450+ LEAD AUTHORS FROM The IPCC’s work is
generally considered the
 130+ COUNTRIES most conservative and
 6 YEARS WORK reliable assessment of
 1 REPORT climate change science
available today.
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report concludes:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely [90%] due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic [human] greenhouse gas
concentrations.”
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/AR4/.html

7. The Joint Science Academies
All industrialized countries have a scientific body made of the best and
brightest scientists in their fields: i.e. The UK’s Royal Society and
 Australia’s Australian Academy of Science. Collectively, these entities are
often called the “joint science academies”.
In 2005, the Joint Academies’ climate change statement noted:
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now
sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action”
and it called on world leaders to "acknowledge that the
threat of climate change is clear and increasing.“
In terms of economic costs, it called on leaders to
"recognize that delayed action will increase the risk of
adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a
greater cost."

8. Recent climate research
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/dev http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
eloping-national-coastal-adaptation-agenda.pdf

9. Climate change research
Developing a national coastal
adaptation agenda is a recent
report produced by the
National Climate Change
Forum held in 2010.
“Early planning can ensure we take a
measured and cost-effective approach
to managing the impacts of coastal
climate change, allowing the economy
and our society to adjust positively
over time.”
Greg Combet,
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/dev
eloping-national-coastal-adaptation-agenda.pdf

10. Climate change research
Climate Change in Queensland
(2010) offers a detailed review
and update on the latest
climate science and what it
means for Queensland.
It provides an in-depth analysis
drawing on a review of more
than 200 peer-reviewed
scientific papers published
in the last three years.
Climate Change in Queensland: What the
Science is Telling Us
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/clima
te-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

11. Observed sea-level rise around the
Australian coastline: 1990-2008
“… there are some things we’re
very clear about. We know the
sea level is going up, we know
temperatures are going up, we
have a high degree of
confidence in some regions that
things are drying.
So we can use that
understanding of the climate
system to be making decisions
now”.
Dr Andrew Ash, CSIRO
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 13
Kate English

12. SLR global average projections for 2100
There has been a growing
concern that sea-level rise
at the upper end of the
IPCC estimates is plausible
by the end of this century.
A rise of more than 1.0
metre and as high as 1.5
metres cannot be ruled
out.
‘there’s a whole range of
evidence that shows that the
climate system is moving faster
than we would have thought
about a decade ago’
Professor Will Steffen, ANU
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda
2010
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 14
Kate English

13. Sea-level rise projections to 2350
Dr John Church (CSIRO) : ‘If we don’t start acting now [to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions], we won’t be arguing about 50cm or 80cm of sea-level rise, we’ll be
talking about metres, and the impact on the coasts, on all of the councils, on
all of the society around Australia, will be much larger’.
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 15
Kate English

14. Frequency of high sea-level events
A moderate rise in sea level will
also have a significant
multiplying impact on the
frequency of high sea-level
events.
By 2030, what are now 1-in-100
year storm tide events could
become 1-in-20 year events,
and by 2070 such events would
be an almost annual occurrence.
Source: Developing a National Coastal
Adaptation Agenda 2010
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 16
Kate English

15. Climate extremes: storm surges
A storm surge is a rise above the normal water level along a shore that is the
result of strong onshore winds and /or reduced atmospheric pressure.
Storm surges accompany a tropical cyclone as it comes ashore. They may also
be formed by intense low-pressure systems in non-tropical areas.

16. Noosa’s future
storm tide events
Extreme Events:
Increase in extreme
events with the Noosa
1-in-100 year storm tide
event projected to
increase by 42 cm
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/p
df/regionsummary-seq.pdf

17. Observed and Projected Climate Variables
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/regionsummary-seq.pdf

18. Noosa’s future climate
Temperature:
An increase in up to 1.8 degrees Celsius by 2050
Rainfall:
A decrease in annual rainfall by up to 13%
Intensive rainfall events:
A increase of up to 30% thus increasing local
flooding
Heatwaves:
An increase in heatwave duration and intensity
Droughts:
More frequent periods of drought
Cyclones:
An increase in the peripheral effects
from tropical cyclone activity
including storm surge and more intensive
wind speeds
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Photo: Noosa Integrated Catchment Association, Inc.

19. The IPCC, in its 2007 Fourth
Assessment Report, cites only
two “vulnerability hot spots” in all
of Australia.
SEQ is one of them.
Why is the Sunshine Coast so vulnerable
to climate change impacts?

20. Climate change + population growth +
urban development = “vulnerability hot spot”

21. Noosa’s summer temperature
Sunshine Coast region (mean summer temperature)
Noosa region:
27.8 - 29
degrees Celsius Baseline (1990)
Summer Temperature
Source: IPCC SRES SimCLIM

22. Noosa’s future summer temperature
Sunshine Coast region
(Mean summer temperature, worst case scenario)
2050 2100
Noosa region: Noosa region:
30.3 to 31.5 31.5 to 34
Celsius Celsius
IPCC SRES: Hadley GCM, A1FI Emissions Scenario, High Sensitivity

23. Noosa’s future temperature
Increase in temperature and projections that
“Tewantin may have nearly four times the number of
days over 35 degrees Celsius by 2070.”
(Currently 3 days/year, projected up to 11 days/year)
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/regionsummary-seq.pdf

24. Climate Extremes
Extreme weather events occur within
the climate’s natural variability.
The effects of climate change will
be superimposed on natural
climate variability, leading to
changes in the frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events.

25. Climate Extremes
Recent observations show that an increasing number of
extreme weather events can be attributed to human-
induced changes in the climate system (QCCCE 2010).
For example, an increase in the Noosa 1-in-100 year
storm tide event projected to increase by 42 cm
(ClimateQ 2009).
Extreme weather events from
climate change have the
greatest potential impact
on human and natural systems.

26. Impacts from
Noosa’s changing climate
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

27. What impacts will
Noosa’s vulnerable
Photo: Warren Scanlon
coastal communities
experience?
Photo: Ben Fitzgibbon

28. Climate change research
The National Climate Change Forum:
Adaptation Priorities for Australia’s
Coasts sought to commence a
dialogue with coastal decision-makers
on the national coastal adaptation
agenda.
Around 200 senior decision-makers
attended the Forum including
representatives from many local
governments (including many mayors
and councillors), state, territory and
Australian governments and
departments, regional coastal boards,
academic institutions and industry
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/dev
groups.
eloping-national-coastal-adaptation-agenda.pdf

29. Frequency of high sea-level events
 By 2030, what are now 1-in-100 year
storm tide events could become 1-in- Professor Will Steffen (ANU):
20 year events
‘the total number of cyclones
 By 2070 such events would be an
almost annual occurrence may actually decrease but the
number of intense ones,
 Frequency and magnitude of extreme category three to five, may
weather events may also be altered, increase’. For rainfall
including tropical cyclones, rainfall distribution ‘we may get less
distribution and wind, with
subsequent changes in wave climates rainfall [in some areas] but it
and storm surge. appears that the rain is coming
in more intense events’.
Source: National Climate Change Forum: Adaptation Priorities for Australia’s Coast Report 2010
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 32
Kate English

30. Future SLR and local planning decisions
Even after atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are
limited , sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100
because of:
 The lag between atmospheric and ocean warming
 The time required for icesheets to melt and
 The momentum in the climate system.
Planning schemes: The timeframe of hundreds of years is
relevant to the lifespan of some major pieces of
infrastructure and to decisions on the location of major
urban areas.
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 33
Kate English

31. Australian infrastructure
within 200 metres of the coastline
Coastal infrastructure impacts
include inundation and
accelerated degradation of
materials and foundations for
our ports, airports and roads.
This includes saltwater
intrusion into all asset --
pipes, sewerage treatment
plants, etc.
Source: Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts 2009.
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 34
Kate English

32. Between 157,000 and 247,000
existing residential buildings at risk
from a 1.1 metre sea-level rise
Climate Change Risks to
Australia’s Coast report (2009):
“the replacement value
of residential buildings
alone from a sea-level
rise of 1.1.m is
up to $63 billion
(2008 value).”
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 35
Kate English

33. Early Action vs. Delay
While communities require improved information
in order to understand and plan for climate change
risks, this should not be used as a reason to delay
taking action.
‘… the core of climate science is exceptionally well known
with a high degree of certainty, and this is enough to act
on’
Professor Will Steffen, ANU
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 36
Kate English

34. Benefits of Early Action
Well planned early action can help alleviate some of
the future cost burden of action.
Example: Mornington Peninsula Shire’s $3 million/year
coastal works adaptation planning budget
“It’s saving money if we do some of these works now, versus the long term
costs… In the case of our Shire, an additional $3 million is now budgeted
each year for flood and erosion works, to prepare for the extreme weather
events”.
Mayor David Gibb, Mornington Peninsula
Shire
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 37
Kate English

35. National sea-level rise benchmarks
The House of Representatives Committee Standing Committee on
Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts 2009 report
recommended national guidance for coastal land-use planning in the
context of climate change, particularly in setting sea-level rise
benchmarks. Different benchmark heights could be identified
for decisions with varying planning horizons or asset value.
‘The rate of projected rise in sea level is critical for estimating the severity of
potential impacts… and we recommended that the government consider
the benefits of adopting a nationally consistent sea-level rise planning
benchmark’
Jennie George, former MP and Chair of HoR Standing Committee
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 38
Kate English

36. Local impacts,
local and national responses
The Australian Government’s Adapting to Climate Change in Australia,
identifies its role as:
 providing national science and information to support
adaptation planning
 leading in areas of national reform
 maintaining a strong and flexible economy and
 ensuring climate change considerations are addressed in its own
programs and assets.
‘The impact of climate change will be felt at local and regional scales and
adaptation needs to happen at those scales but we also need to have the
appropriate top-down responses because we do run the risk if it’s all bottom-
up they’ll lack consistency’ Dr Andrew Ash, CSIRO
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 39
Kate English

37. Communicating climate risk
Many people in coastal communities may not yet see
the direct impacts of climate change to their lives.
The challenge now is how to better communicate
science findings and risks when direct changes cannot
yet be observed.
‘the great problem we face is a disconnect between
the weight of global scientific opinion and a very
confused public’.
Professor Tim Flannery
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 40
Kate English

38. Successful community engagement
on adaptation
 Mornington Peninsula Shire Council’s Climate Change
Conversations which began with a series of meetings where
residents were asked “What do you think is going to happen and
what should we do about it?”
 Byron Bay Shire encouraged older residents to share their
stories about the storms, the floods, the things that they’ve
experienced which led to discussions about what would happen if
those events happened now or were more extreme.
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 41
Kate English

39. Successful community engagement
on adaptation
 NSW king tide
photography project of
2009 was highly effective
in improving awareness
by visually highlighting
potentially vulnerable
areas along its coast.
Coastal communities and adaptation
5/03/2011 42
Kate English

40. What are the other
important impacts facing
residents of Noosa?

41. Economic impacts

42. Economic impacts

43. Safety impacts
Police urge road
safety amid
floods
Posted April 5, 2009
Police on south-east
Queensland's Sunshine
Coast say road conditions
in the area will continue
to be dangerous as more
rain falls over the next few
days. The body of a 78-
year-old woman was
found yesterday after her
car was swept from a
flooded roadway north of
Kin Kin in the Sunshine
Coast hinterland on
Thursday night.

44. Agricultural impacts
• Shorter growing season
• Increased decomposition of soil organic matter
• Depletion in soil fertility (native N stocks)
• Decline in soil structure
• Reduced soil cover
• Loss of crops due to severe flooding

45. Health Impacts
 heat stress
 other heat-related illness (affecting
the heart, blood vessels and lungs)
 trauma from extreme weather events
 mental illness in areas affected by
long-term drought and other natural
disasters
 respiratory problems from airborne
pollutants
 infectious diseases such as
gastroenteritis
 dengue fever and Ross River virus due
to changes in the distribution of
disease-carrying mosquitoes.
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

46. Given the current risks and
uncertainties from climate
change, what is the most
prudent thing to do?
Implement a climate
strategy with meaningful
adaptation and mitigation
measures and actions.
Photos: Noosa Integrated Catchment Association, Inc.

47. What is adaptation?
Adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic
changes or their effect, which
moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities.
(Queensland Government, 2010)
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
ttp://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

48. Adaptation
“… preparing for the impacts
and managing the risks of
climate change that is
already committed to by
past emissions and those
in the near future”.
(CSIRO 2006)

49. Adaptation can be implemented by:
 setting measurable actions
 building the adaptive capacity of stakeholders
 monitoring an evolving, dynamic process that
is tailored to a particular set of circumstances
 integrating science, policy, planning and
management to meet stakeholders’ needs in
addressing climate variability and change
issues as they relate to specific locations and
conditions