The energy sector perspective in the context of Covid-19 carbon pricing and climate ambition, Tom Howes, Head of the Energy and Environmental Division

OECD Environment
OECD EnvironmentOECD Environment
Page 1
The energy sector perspective in the context of
Covid-19 - Carbon pricing and climate ambition
Tom Howes, Head of the Energy and Environmental Division
Carbon Markets Platform 2020, 4th November 2020
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 2
Covid-19 and the energy outlook
• In an extraordinary year, 2 key questions:
- How might the pandemic (and its aftermath) reshape the energy sector?
- Does this disruption help, or hinder, the prospects for rapid clean energy transitions?
• Focus on pathways out of today’s crisis over the next 3 years (WEO Special Report on Sustainable
Recovery) and 10 years (WEO2020), amid 2 key uncertainties
- Duration and severity of the pandemic and its economic impacts
- Response from energy policy makers and the sustainability of the recovery
• Scenario-based approach more important than ever, to examine:
- The direction we are heading, depending on the outlook for public health & the economy
- What would be required to reach net-zero emissions
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 3
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Gt
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Gt
CO2 emissions drop the most ever due to the COVID-19 crisis
Global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to fall 7% in 2020 to their lowest level in a decade. Reduced coal
use contributes the most. Experience suggests that a large rebound is likely post crisis.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions and annual change, 1900-2020
Second
oil shock
Financial
crisis
World
War II
Great
Depression
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 4
A plan for a Sustainable Recovery post Covid-19
The Sustainable Recovery Plan provides an integrated approach to support economic recovery and
jobs while improving the resiliency & sustainability of the energy system
Sustainable
Recovery Plan
goals
Electricity
33%
Efficiency
40%
Other
27%
$1 trillion for
three years
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 5
The shorter-term perspective: a plan for a Sustainable Recovery post
Covid-19
The plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, reducing GHG emissions by 4.5 billion
tonnes and putting them on a path towards achieving long-term climate goals, including the Paris Agreement.
Energy-sector GHG emissions
Without a sustainable
recovery
With a sustainable
recovery
Gt CO2-eq
30
32
34
36
38
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2023
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
10
20
30
40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Gt CO2
The longer-term perspective: the world is still far from putting
emissions into decisive decline
Global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008-2009,
but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery
China 2060 net-zero statement
Net-zero in 2050
STEPS
Full implementation of 2050 net-zero pledges
(e.g. EU, UK, New Zealand and others)
SDS
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Net-zero emissions is not viable without a lot more innovation
Technologies at prototype or demonstration stage today contribute almost 35% of the emissions reductions to 2070;
a further 40% comes from technologies that are at early stages of adoption.
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends
- 35
- 30
- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
0
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtCO
2
/yr
Mature
Early adoption
Demonstration
Large prototype
Net-zero
emissions
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Net-zero emissions is not viable without a lot more innovation
Rapidly commercialising today’s newest & most promising technologies would help save enough CO2 emissions to
reach net-zero by 2050. Lack of policy support could delay achieving net-zero emissions.
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends
- 35
- 30
- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
0
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtCO
2
/yr
Small prototype/lab
Mature
Early adoption
Demonstration
Large prototype
Faster Innovation Case
2050
IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Carbon pricing could be a useful instrument to stimulate more
innovation towards net-zero
• A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep
net zero targets within reach.
• Carbon pricing is one of the several policy levers that could be used to reduce
energy-related CO2 emissions.
• Experience shows that the power sector is particularly well suited for carbon
markets – potentially important also for Article 6 voluntary co-operation.
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 10
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The energy sector perspective in the context of Covid-19 carbon pricing and climate ambition, Tom Howes, Head of the Energy and Environmental Division

  • 1. Page 1 The energy sector perspective in the context of Covid-19 - Carbon pricing and climate ambition Tom Howes, Head of the Energy and Environmental Division Carbon Markets Platform 2020, 4th November 2020
  • 2. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 2 Covid-19 and the energy outlook • In an extraordinary year, 2 key questions: - How might the pandemic (and its aftermath) reshape the energy sector? - Does this disruption help, or hinder, the prospects for rapid clean energy transitions? • Focus on pathways out of today’s crisis over the next 3 years (WEO Special Report on Sustainable Recovery) and 10 years (WEO2020), amid 2 key uncertainties - Duration and severity of the pandemic and its economic impacts - Response from energy policy makers and the sustainability of the recovery • Scenario-based approach more important than ever, to examine: - The direction we are heading, depending on the outlook for public health & the economy - What would be required to reach net-zero emissions
  • 3. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Gt -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Gt CO2 emissions drop the most ever due to the COVID-19 crisis Global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to fall 7% in 2020 to their lowest level in a decade. Reduced coal use contributes the most. Experience suggests that a large rebound is likely post crisis. Global energy-related CO2 emissions and annual change, 1900-2020 Second oil shock Financial crisis World War II Great Depression
  • 4. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 4 A plan for a Sustainable Recovery post Covid-19 The Sustainable Recovery Plan provides an integrated approach to support economic recovery and jobs while improving the resiliency & sustainability of the energy system Sustainable Recovery Plan goals Electricity 33% Efficiency 40% Other 27% $1 trillion for three years
  • 5. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 5 The shorter-term perspective: a plan for a Sustainable Recovery post Covid-19 The plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, reducing GHG emissions by 4.5 billion tonnes and putting them on a path towards achieving long-term climate goals, including the Paris Agreement. Energy-sector GHG emissions Without a sustainable recovery With a sustainable recovery Gt CO2-eq 30 32 34 36 38 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023
  • 6. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. 10 20 30 40 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Gt CO2 The longer-term perspective: the world is still far from putting emissions into decisive decline Global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008-2009, but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery China 2060 net-zero statement Net-zero in 2050 STEPS Full implementation of 2050 net-zero pledges (e.g. EU, UK, New Zealand and others) SDS
  • 7. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Net-zero emissions is not viable without a lot more innovation Technologies at prototype or demonstration stage today contribute almost 35% of the emissions reductions to 2070; a further 40% comes from technologies that are at early stages of adoption. Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends - 35 - 30 - 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 GtCO 2 /yr Mature Early adoption Demonstration Large prototype Net-zero emissions
  • 8. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Net-zero emissions is not viable without a lot more innovation Rapidly commercialising today’s newest & most promising technologies would help save enough CO2 emissions to reach net-zero by 2050. Lack of policy support could delay achieving net-zero emissions. Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends - 35 - 30 - 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 GtCO 2 /yr Small prototype/lab Mature Early adoption Demonstration Large prototype Faster Innovation Case 2050
  • 9. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Carbon pricing could be a useful instrument to stimulate more innovation towards net-zero • A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep net zero targets within reach. • Carbon pricing is one of the several policy levers that could be used to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions. • Experience shows that the power sector is particularly well suited for carbon markets – potentially important also for Article 6 voluntary co-operation.
  • 10. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 10