การประชุมและนิทรรศการนานาชาติ “Sustainable Energy & Technology Asia 2016 (SETA 2016)” หรือ “พลังงานและเทคโนโลยีที่ยั่งยืนแห่งเอเชีย 2559” เมื่อระหว่างวันที่ 23-25 มีนาคม 2559 ณ ศูนย์นิทรรศการและการประชุมไบเทค (BITEC) บางนา กรุงเทพมหานคร หัวข้อ Driving Energy Policy towards Sustainability: นายไกรสีห์ กรรณสูต กรรมการกำกับกิจการพลังงาน (กกพ.) ได้อธิบายนโยบายพลังงานของประเทศไทย แผน PDP 2015 แผนพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและพลังงานทางเลือก แผนอนุรักษ์พลังงาน โดยจะอยู่ในแนวทางของ “trilemma” : 3 Key Success Factors ECOLOGY ECONOMY SECURITY ทั้งนี้ไทยเน้นการจัดการเชื้อเพลิงเพื่อให้ปี 2036 พลังงานทดแทนมีจะนวนร้อยละ 18-20 และกล่าวเน้นความท้าทายในการกำกับกิจารพลังงาน เช่น ศักยภาพระบบโครงข่าย การออกหลักเกณฑ์การรับซื้อไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานหมุนเวียนในแบบ FiT ภายใต้กลไกการแข่งขันด้านราคา

1. Track I: Energy Policy and Planning
Driving Energy Policy Towards Sustainability
Presented on SETA 2016
Kraisi Karnasuta, Commissioner
Energy Regulatory Commission of Thailand
23 March 2016
1

2. 2
ก๊าซ
ธรรมชาติ
118,490
67%
ถ่านหิน
นาเข้า/
ลิกไนต์
31,505
18%
น้ามัน
820
0%
พลังน้า
3,493
2%
นาเข้า
13,268
8%
พลังงาน
หมุนเวียน
9,127
5%
Total 176,702 GWh
Oil
Hydro Import Renewable
Import
Coal/
Lignite
Natural gas
2015
Thailand’s Electricity Generation Situation:
Classified by Fuel
Source: Minister of Energy

3. 3
MOEN Gas Plan 2015-2036
Source: Minister of Energy, adapted by ERC Thailand

4. 4
Natural Gas Pool Price: 2015-2036
Source: Minister of Energy, adapted by ERC Thailand
หมายเหตุ: Assumptions Price between 2015-2036 est. from the price between Jan2014-June2015

5. 5
Load profiles
5
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
ม.ค. ก.พ. มี.ค. เม.ย. พ.ค. มิ.ย. ก.ค. ส.ค. ก.ย. ต.ค. พ.ย. ธ.ค.
MW
2014
2013
2012
2011
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
11 June 2015 at 14:02
27,346 MW
2015
Peak  1.5 %
Source: EGAT, Net Peak Generation Requirement on EGAT system
11 June 2014 at 14:30
26,121 MW

6. 6
Energy Policy
 Secure Thailand Energy supply
• Exploration and production of natural gas
and crude oil both in the sea and on land
• More new power plant by government
agencies and private organizations
• Increase the use of renewable energy
• International energy development
cooperation
 Fair Energy Pricing
• Energy price restructure
• Appropriate tax between different
types of oil
 Energy conservation
• More efficient use of energy
• Awareness of consumer
Prime Minister Statement
Ministry of Energy:
Energy Policy Formulation

7. ASEAN and GMS
Interconnection
Social & Economic
Environmental
7
Strategies to drive Energy Policy
Main features “trilemma” : 3 Key Success Factors ECOLOGY ECONOMY SECURITY
Energy
Policy
Security
Effective Regulation
Domestic Supply
• Renewable Energy
• Cogeneration Plant
• Energy Efficiency
• Harmonised rules
• International energy cooperation
• Fuel Diversification
• Adequacy
• Quality of Supply
• Affordability
• Vulnerable consumers
• Public Participation
• Competitive bidding
• Price control

8. GOALS
8

9. 9
Natural Gas
36%
Import Coal/
Lignite
22%
Hydro
2%
Import
17%
Renewable
18%
Nuclear
5%
2036
FUEL DIVERSIFICATION
Fuel Mix (%)- Target

10. 10
Improved Reliability: System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI)
Improved Reliability: System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI)
Quality of Supply
*ERC regulate Quality of Supply under NEPC’s Policy
Timesofoccurrence
/deliverypoint
Minuet
/supplypoint

11. 11
Energy Efficiency

12. 12
Carbon Emission per unit

13. 1) Security –
to create stability for national energy need/demand
and support the National Economic and Social
Development Plan by distributing
fuel to reduce risk on depending
too much on a fuel’s kind
2) Economy –
to create reasonable energy cost for both people and
business, which will not be hurdle for long-term
national
development, including to promote energy efficiency
3) Ecology –
to reduce effects on
environment and community
13
Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint
PDP 2015 (2015 – 2036):
National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC) approved on 14 May 2015
Integrated regulation & monitoringGasPlan
OilPlan
PowerDevelopmentPlan
(PDP2015)
EnergyEfficiencyPlan
(EEP2015)
AlternativeEnergy
DevelopmentPlan
(AEDP2015)
Key Drivers

14. 14
Power Development Plan
(PDP 2015)

15. 15
PDP 2015 – Key points
1. Fuel Diversification
• Reduce fuel dependence on Natural Gas
• Increase the fuel mixed proportion for Clean Coal Technology
• Higher proportion of Imported Power from Neighboring Countries
• Improved Renewable Energy Sources Percentage in fuel mix
• Nuclear Power Plant Projects at the end of PDP2015
2. Appropriate Reserve Margin
• at above 15 percent of peak power demand
3. Power System Infrastructure Investment Projects
• Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure to support the
development of AEC and GMS power integration
• Development of Smart Grid Technology to optimize the integration of
Renewable Energy Sources
4. Integration with EEDP and AEDP

16. 16
ASEAN Interconnection
Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure to support
the development of AEC and GMS power integration

17. 17
Energy Efficiency Plan
(EEP 2015)

18. 18
Energy Efficiency Plan
(EEP 2015)
EE programs
Demand Response programs
1. Replacement of old electrical equipment to EE label on
equipment/appliances
2. Building Energy Code (BEC) on the new buildings
3. Promoting energy conservation awareness nationwide
4. Promoting cogeneration plant in industrial area
5. Supporting the human resource development on energy conservation
along with the creation of public awareness and the energy efficiency
technology research and development
1. Time of Use (TOU) pricing, Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)
2. Peak shaving
3. Interruptible tariff
4. Curtailable Load Management

19. 19
Energy Efficiency Plan
(EEP 2015)
• Mandatory Measure
• Financial support measures
Strategies
To reduce 30% of energy
consumption intensity by 2036
Target

20. 20
Demand Side Management: Combine DR+EE
Benefits
- Mitigate power system emergencies
- Reduce power outage
- Reduce dependence on expensive fuel
- Defer high investment in Generation, Transmission and Distribution
Balancing generation & demand

21. 21
Alternative Energy Development Plan
(AEDP 2015)

22. 22
• Promote development and deployment of WTE and
biobased energy (biogas, biomass, energy crop) as first
priority !
• Promote PV and Wind energy for power generation once
their cost can compete with LNG cost
• Provide incentive scheme with Feed-in Tariff (FiT) to drive
for RE development
• Use competitive bidding in conjunction with the FiT
scheme to ensure efficient investment
• Right amount and Right Location (RE Zoning) to ensure
security of supply and loss optimization
AEDP 2015: Key Points

23. 23
AEDP 2015: RE target
19,684.4
Unit:MW
BiomassBiogas
IndustrialMunicipal
WTE

24. 24
Challenges for The Grid
• Growth in intermittent RE
need storage or flexible resources
• Change in dynamic response
plant of low or no inertia
• Transmission Constraint
locational diversity
• Increased complexities in Planning & Operation

25. Integrated regulation and monitoring
25

26. 26
ROLE OF REGULATOR
Investors Consumers
• Minimize
Consumer Bill
• Security & Quality
of Supply
• Environment
• Safety
• Fair return on
efficient
investment
• Investor
confidence
Security of Supply
Ensuring efficient investment
Provide incentives for improving efficiency
Ensuring Environmental Sustainability
RULES AND REGULATION
To balance stakeholders

27. 27
1. Transparency
• Open and Participatory Decision Making Process
• Access to information
• Open meetings
• Explanation of Decisions
2. Credibility
• Balance in all interest groups
• Acceptable to investors (Fair return)
• Protect consumers (environmentally friendly
energy supply in good quality and less cost)
3. Accountability and Independence
Sustainable and Effective Integrated
Regulation and monitoring

28. Thank you
28