This is a presentation by Professor Les Baillie at the Global Trends and Implications for British Security Conference.

1. Session five (a): Pandemics and Biology
The misuse of biology
Prof Les Baillie
School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical
Sciences, Cardiff University
Global Trends and Implications for British Security

2. My Views

3. Possible misuses
•Targeting humans
– Act of Terrorism
• State sponsored
• Radical group
• Doomsday
– Accidental
• Break down in biosecurity
• Unforeseen consequences -Creating new life forms !
•Targeting animals- FMD
•Targeting crops – Rice, pollinators

4. Small scale anthrax attack
Estimated clean up cost US$1 billion.

5. Consequences of a large scale anthrax attack
• It is predicted that an attack against
a city of 11.5 million inhabitants with
2.2 pounds of anthrax would results
in 1.5 million infections.
• If drugs were only administered once
the first case had been diagnosed
123,000 of those infected would die.
If antibiotics are given pre attack the
number of deaths would be reduced
to 50,000
Consequence of an attack against D.C.
100 000 dead, 125 000 infected
Economic cost = $ 26 billion dollars
(Kaufmann et al.,1997)

6. Steel the bug from a lab
Stelle it !

7. Natural source

8. Once you have your
bug what happens next ?

9. Set up a secret microbiology laboratory

13. ?

14. An idiots guide to making pathogens
There is no manual for how to live your life, and even if
there were, with your luck it would probably be in french
!

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18. Is this what the future holds?

19. Make your own organism-grow your own !
Chemical synthesis of Mycoplasma genitalium
bacterial genome

22. How do you regulate biology ?