We examine to what extent successful business-development activities in uncertain environments can be classified as corporate foresight (CF) and to what extent they have been intentional and systematic. Beginning with identifying successful cases of new-business development in Bottom of the Pyramid markets, we use various data sources to reconstruct timelines and map CF activities. We selected the cases to maximise their heterogeneity in firm size, industry, nature of the product and ownership structure. Our findings suggest that the probing (experimental search) phase is particularly important in unknown and uncertain environments but that perceiving and prospecting (cognitive search) activities are necessary to find distant opportunities. In addition, we find that successful business-development activities rely on multiple iterations between perceiving, prospecting and probing. Our findings emphasise that CF should include activities that encompass both experimental and cognitive search elements.

1. JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY
RENÉ ROHRBECK
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CORPORATE FORESIGHT FOR
EXPLORING BOTTOM OF THE
PYRAMID MARKETS
JAKOB HØJLAND & RENÉ ROHRBECK

2. RENÉ ROHRBECK
JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGYAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
WE WERE WONDERING:
 How structured is business development (vs. chance encounters, trial-and-error
learning, and unintended discoveries) when traced over time?
 How do firms (MNC, SMEs, Start-ups) succeed in creating new markets, where no
market data is available, as in the Bottom of the Pyramid markets.
Jakob Højland
Aarhus BSS
René Rohrbeck
Aarhus BSS

3. RENÉ ROHRBECK
JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGYAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
WE USED THIS FRAMEWORK TO TRACE THE
DIFFERENT BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
OVER TIME.
BOP BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT PATHSCORPORATE FORESIGHT
Building a Market Through Local Co-Creation and Deep
Dialogue
Creating a Sustainable Value and Distribution Chain
Create Tailored Product Offerings Profitably
Prospecting
Perceiving
Probing

4. RENÉ ROHRBECK
JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGYAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CASE 1BOPBDCORPORATEFORESIGHT
PERCEIVING
PROSPECTING
PROBING
Increase of
average stay
duration in
refugee camps
Technology
enables superior
solution with only
minor cost increase
Build prototype
and customer
interaction
TIME
New prototype
and customer
interaction
Building a Market Through Local
Co-Creation and Deep Dialogue
- not employed -
Creating a Sustainable Value and
Distribution Chain
- employed -
Create Tailored Product Offerings
Profitably
- employed -
Co-financed
field test
PROSPECTING
Privacy and
security are
unfulfilled needs
1
2
3
4
5 6
outcome outcome outcomeIntentional and systematic intentional unintentional

5. RENÉ ROHRBECK
JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGYAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CASE 2BOPBDCORPORATEFORESIGHT
PERCEIVING
PROBING
Lack of access to
electricity triggers
strong demand for
smart solutions
Adapting existing
products to local
needs
TIME
Proof-of-Concept
with local
customers
Building a Market Through Local
Co-Creation and Deep Dialogue
- not employed -
Creating a Sustainable Value and
Distribution Chain
- not employed -
Create Tailored Product Offerings
Profitably
- employed -
Acquiring needed
certificates to sell
in Africa
outcome outcome outcomeIntentional and systematic intentional unintentional
1
2 4 5
PROSPECTING
Managing the
tipping point for
smart metering in
Africa
3

6. RENÉ ROHRBECK
JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGYAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
CASE 3BOPBDCORPORATEFORESIGHT
PERCEIVING
PROSPECTING
PROBING
Removal of
subsidies for
imported Milk
Growing middle
class in markets
that are becoming
more open
TIME
Official testing for
market approval
Building of a
new strategy to
circumvent an
injunction
Create the right
value formula for
the fat filled milk
1 2
4 5
6
outcome outcome outcomeIntentional and systematic intentional unintentional
3
Building a Market Through Local
Co-Creation and Deep Dialogue
- not employed -
Creating a Sustainable Value and
Distribution Chain
- employed -
Create Tailored Product Offerings
Profitably
- employed -
PROSPECTING
Identification of
the ”fat-milk”
solution

7. RENÉ ROHRBECK
JUNE 2017 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGYAARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
WE FIND
 Trail-and-error learning (Probing) is particularly important in unknown and uncertain
environments
 In addition, (i) continuous scanning for change drivers (Perceiving) and analyzing the
interdependencies of change drivers with systems thinking (Prospecting) are
necessary to find distant opportunities. i.e. opportunities that are markedly different
from the current business.
 Firms succeed who stay persistent even when faced with early drawbacks.
READ MORE
Højland, J. & R. Rohrbeck 2017 The role of corporate foresight in exploring new markets: evidence from 3 case
studies in the BOP markets. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, forthcoming. (free pre-print version)

8. AARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT