3. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS
Population growth: 6,9 to 7,6 billion
+ 700 million people
88 % will happen in Asia and Africa
Urbanization growth: 3,3 to 4,3 billion
+ 1 billion people
Mostly in Asia and Africa
Purchasing power growth: 7,350 to 9,280 USD
40 % of the world’s population lives in countries
with economies that are growing at 8 % annually.
China and India middle class will grow from actual 400 million
to more than 1 billion by 2020
L. Roppa Consulting
4. IMPACT … meat consumption increase
Meat consumption will increase near 4 times more
in Developing countries than in Developed countries ...
Meat consumption (poultry, beef and pork), 2010 to 2020 (million MT)
2010 2020 Quantity, Current Kg/
million T person
World 269,08 322,75 53,67 40,9
DEVELOPED 108,18 119,77 11,59 80,0
DEVELOPING 160,90 202,98 42,08 32,0
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
5. IMPACT … meat consumption increase
Meat consumption growth of 54 Mt is projected by 2020
… predominantly in Asia
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
6. IMPACT … Grain demand increase
The demand for Cereals is expected to grow 16%
Million MT 2010 2020 Growth, %
COARSE GRAINS 1.114,3 1.320,7 18,5
WHEAT 653,2 745,9 14,2
OILSEEDS 433,7 507,2 16,9
RICE 465,9 528,1 13,3
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
7. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS
Water: World’s water needs will grow by 15 % over the next 10 years …
Water scarcity is a global phenomenon, but will affect more Asia and Africa.
Arable Land: Land available for agriculture is declining
From 0,50 Ha of arable land per person in 1950 to 0,25 Ha in 2010.
Sources of growth in crop production to meet Global food needs by 2050
Yields Crop Area
intensity expansion
World 77 % 14 % 9%
Source: OCDE – FAO, 2010
Energy: World primary energy will grow by 20% over the next 10 years
Developing economies drive Energy consumption growth (30% higher than today)
L. Roppa Consulting
8. IMPACT … Land grabbing
“Made in China” x “Made for China”
Without land and water in their own country,
Governments will produce abroad …
Governments purchasing land abroad
31.0 (in ‘000 km2, 2006-2009)
7.3 6.9 5.1 3.5
China UAE South Korea Saudi Arabia Lybia
Source: FAO, World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030,
L. Roppa Consulting
9. IMPACT … Biofuels production growth
By 2020:
- 12% of the global production of Coarse Grains will be used to produce Ethanol
- 16% of the global production of Vegetable Oils will be used to produce Biodiesel
Biofuels production growth, 2010 to 2020
2010 2020 Growth, %
Ethanol, 99,4 154,9 55,8
million liters
Biodiesel, 19,8 41,9 111,6
million liters
Source: L. Roppa, 2011 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
10. IMPACT … Food Price volatility
When a significant amount of the crops goes to produce Biofuels,
feed costs are likely to remain high and volatile
Commodity Food Price Index, Monthly Price evolution, 2001 to 2011
December 2001 to December 2011: 109,4 %
Description: Commodity Food Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Cereal, Vegetable Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Price Indices
Source: www.indexmundi.com
L. Roppa Consulting
11. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS
Meat production requirements are increasing,
driven by consumer sensitivity and regulations.
Food safety
Health & Wellness
Animal welfare
Environment
Sustainability
Traceability
L. Roppa Consulting
12. FACT … Environment & Climate changes
Poultry meat has the least impact on the environment per kg of meat produced
Source: IMPRO, 2008 - Elaboration: Luciano Roppa 2009
L. Roppa Consulting
13. Impact: Better efficiency = lower Emission
Source: Flachowsky & Hachenberg, 2009
Younger age at slaughter (Feedlots, Genetic, Additives …)
Improve Pasture (Carbon Sequestration)
L. Roppa Consulting
14. IMPACT … future meat consumption
Meat consumption by Species, 2010 to 2020
2010, 2020, Kg/person/
year
%
Kg/person/year
PORK 15,5 16,6 7,1
POULTRY 14,2 16,0 12,6
BEEF 9,4 9,6 2,1
SHEEP 1,8 2,0 11,1
TOTAL 40,9 44,2 8,1
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
15. FACT … Economic crisis
Real GDP growth, in per cent
2010 2011 2012 2013
United States 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.5
Euro area 1.8 1.6 0.2 1.4
Japan 4.1 -0.3 2.0 1.6
Total OECD 3.1 1.9 1.6 2.3
Brazil 7.5 3.4 3.2 3.9
China 10.4 9.3 8.5 9.5
India 9.9 7.7 7.2 8.2
Indonesia 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.5
Russian Federation 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1
WORLD 5,0 3,8 3,4 4,3
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 90 database. – Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, 2012.
L. Roppa Consulting
16. IMPACT … meat consumption
USA: Meat Price and Consumption change
after feed price surge and economic crisis
Change in Price (06/07=100) Change in per capita consumption
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17. ACTIONS & CHALLENGES
- Produce more
(growth in population and purchasing power)
- Better
(food safety, animal well-being and sustainability)
- With less resources
(less land, water, labor, energy & higher prices)
- At a lower cost
(huge population with small income)
- With technology
(research, innovation …)
L. Roppa Consulting
18. ACTIONS … increase meat production
Meat production* growth 2010-2020: 19,7%
2010 2020 Quantity %
Million T Million T Million T
World 270,41 323,83 53,42 19,7
DEVELOPED 111,37 123,77 12,40 11,1
DEVELOPING 159,04 200,05 41,01 25,7
Latin America 46,28 57,31 11,0 23,8
* poultry, beef and pork
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
19. Where meat production will grow?
2010 2020 Growth,
(million T) (million T) %
World 270,41 323,83 19,7
1 - China 72,62 89,51 23,2
2 - EU 27 42,10 43,80 4,0
3 - USA 40,80 46,39 13,7
4 - Brazil 25,13 31,18 24,1
5 - Russia 6,93 8,73 25,9
6 - India 6,12 7,79 27,3
7 - Mexico 5,59 6,93 23,9
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020” and MAPA, 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
20. ACTIONS … Poultry production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 2,5% per year
POULTRY, million 2010 2020
T
WORLD 97,546 122,411
Latin America 22,490 28,831
Share, % 23,0 23,5
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
21. ACTIONS … Pork production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 1,8% per year
PORK, million T 2010 2020
WORLD 107,942 127,299
Latin America 6,710 8,245
Share, % 6,2 6,5
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
22. ACTIONS … Beef production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 1,4% per year
BEEF, million T 2010 2020
WORLD 64,927 74,127
Latin America 17,085 20,232
Share, % 26,3 27,3
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
23. ACTIONS … Milk production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 2,2% per year
MILK (KT) 2010 2020
WORLD 699.591 852.898
Latin America 76,44 93,85
Share, % 10,9 11,0
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
24. ACTIONS … Who will Export?
Main meat exporters, 2020 (million MT)
Beef Pork Poultry Total
1 - Brazil 2,325 0,761 5,171 8,257
2 - USA 1,444 2,577 3,702 7,723
3 - Canada 0,912 1,399 0,196 2,507
4 - EU-27 0,138 1,459 0,898 2,495
World 10,457 7,568 12,526 30,551
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
25. ACTIONS … Who will Import?
Main meat importers, 2020 (million MT)
Beef Poultry Pork Total
1 - USA 1,896 0,048 0,696 2,640
2 - Japan 0,770 0,343 1,114 2,227
3 - Mexico 0,377 0,858 0,559 1,794
4 - EU-27 0,635 0,883 0,037 1,555
5 - Russia 0,790 0,802 0,102 1,694
World 9,873 12,512 7,151 29,536
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
26. Production Surplus & Deficit
Surplus Deficit
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2011
L. Roppa Consulting
28. To reduce Food losses …
One-third of the edible parts of food produced for human consumption,
gets lost or wasted globally, which is about 1.3 billion ton per year
We need to reduce the current Food losses:
Meat 20%
Cereals 30%
L. Roppa Consulting
29. THE GENETIC CHALLENGE
The genetic selection linked to nutrition, is likely to change in favor of genotypes
capable of being productive in a range of commercial environments
2010 2020
BROILERS
Weight (g) 2.495 2.948
Average daily gain (g) 59 70
Days to 2.200 kg 37,3 31,4
SWINE
Piglets/sow/year 28 35
Meat(kg) / Sow / Year 2500 3500
Average Daily gain (30-100kg) 800 g 900-1000 g
Feed Conversion (30-100kg) 2,6 : 1 2,4 : 1
DAIRY CATTLE
Milk production, EMC 7.250 10.500
Age at first farrowing, months 28 25
L. Roppa Consulting
30. THE FOOD SAFETY CHALLENGE
Over the past 15 years, laboratory equipments
developed detections from ppm (parts per million)
to ppq (parts per quadrillion)
Additional legislation will affect the feed sector, including
environmental protection, feed hygiene and food-safety issues
Companies will only source feed, ingredients & additives
from suppliers with world-class food safety practices.
L. Roppa Consulting
31. THE RAW MATERIAL CHALLENGE
Raw material will increase their prices and some of them will be less available …
• Search for local and cheaper raw material alternatives
• Increasing usage of synthetic forms of essential Amino Acids
• Greater accuracy in dietary macronutrient and micronutrient provision (NIR)
• A more efficient conversion of by-products (rich in NSP) into high quality food
will remain a top priority area of research in the future (enzymes)
L. Roppa Consulting
32. THE EFFICIENCY CHALLENGE
The restricting or even banning of anti-infective is likely to continue ...
Growing demand for nutritional ideas, technologies and additives
that improve feed efficiency
Anti Oxidants Enzymes
Prebiotics (MOSS) Organic Minerals
Probiotics Essential oils
Mycotoxin Binders Immune stimulators
Acidifiers Synthetic Amino Acids
L. Roppa Consulting
33. Final comment …
“More food must be produced sustainably, through the spread and implementation
of existing knowledge and by the investment in technology and innovation”
Meat quality Animal welfare Food safety
Efficiency Environment
Genomic technologies
Nutraceuticals
Food biotechnology
Innovation & Immune modulators
Technologies Organic minerals
(think Globally, act Locally) New Enzymes
Ingredients processing
Carbon reduction
Mathematical models
Today Future Roppa Consulting
L.