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ToC_training slide_set_Sniffer Aug 2015 v2 num-sm
1. Theory of Change
Introductory training
Resource pack
Sniffer / Adaptation Scotland
Aug/Sept 2015
Praxis is the process by which a theory, lesson, or skill is enacted, embodied, or realised. "Praxis"
may also refer to the act of engaging, applying, exercising, realizing, or practicing ideas
Dr Sean DOOLAN, BSc, MBA
Praxis & Research in
Sustainability, Climate & Development
Praxis = process by which a theory, lesson, or skill is enacted, embodied, or realised
Praxis = the act of engaging, applying, exercising, realizing, or practicing ideas
1
2. • Describe what ToC involves & rationale
for use
• Identify how & when ToC should be
developed
• How ToC informs & complements other
planning & M&E tools
• Increase confidence in working through
steps & processes in developing ToC
Learning objectives / 1
2
3. • Explore ways to facilitate development
of ToC within Sniffer and/or with
partners
• Develop action plan for applying
learning, i.e. use a ToC in the REALITY
of change
Learning objectives / 2
3
4. We need to get better at understanding
& influencing change
Theory of change
Should make SENSE
Diagram should be easily read
Language & graphic needs to
resonate with stakeholders
Need to own & use
Need to continue using ToC, i.e.
sustainable as part of
organisational culture
4
5. What is a Theory of Change? / 1
• Ongoing PROCESS of reflection to
EXPLORE change & HOW it happens
• WHAT that means for, and part Sniffer
plays, in a particular context, sector
and/or group of stakeholders
• PRODUCT on understanding of causal
pathways
5
6. What is a Theory of Change? / 2
• Considers project within wider analysis of how
change happens
• Makes all parties explain understanding of change –
but also challenges to explore understanding further
• Often presented as a diagram with an
accompanying narrative summary
Focus is on what you think will CHANGE
NOT on what you plan to DO
6
7. Definition of ToC
• Many approaches - process & product
• A process of desired change by making explicit
the way we think about a current situation or
problem, its underlying causes, the long-term
change we seek, and what needs to happen in
order for that change to come about
• A product that contains a set of hypotheses,
outcomes, assumptions & indicators that make
up causal pathways of change needed to bring
about a desired long-term goal
7
8. Origins of Theory of Change
Complex
evaluations
Questioning & assumptions
behind development
thinking
Freire - ‘theory in use’
Aspen Institute – focus
on communities
Development agencies
Theories of
social change
Lack of clear
frameworks to assess
programmes
Lack of connection
between desired
outcomes & activities
Dissatisfaction
with logframes
More complex,
systemic, network
approaches
Increased demand to
show impact & VfM
Current interest
Need for focus in
programmes
The “missing middle”
8
9. ToC vs logframe / logic models / results chains
Logframe
1. Specific: Based on specific
pathways or interventions the
project will address;
2. Linear & structured
3. Describes outputs, outcomes,
indicators
4. Used for M&E, accountability to
funders (& beneficiaries …)
Theory of Change
1. Broad: Shows all domains &
pathways that may reach a
goal, including those the project
will not directly address
2. Non-linear & adaptive
3. Describes conditions & rationale
/ reasons for linkages along
causal pathway
4. Used for understanding “the big
picture”
Both
May include risks & assumptions,
outcomes, indicators
9
10. ToC - Four interconnecting elements
1 How change happens
2 Change
pathway & linked
domains of
change
3 Impact assessment
framework
4 Reflection
&
adaptation /
refinement
of ToC
10
11. Element 1: How change happens
Big Picture thinking
• “How change happens” in relation to issues &
problems that Sniffer / Adaptation Scotland or
project seeks to address
• Thinking goes beyond own intervention &
considers all aspects of addressing identified issues
• Consider above and below the “threshold of
accountability”
11
12. Element 2: Sniffer / project Change Pathway
• This relates directly to your understanding of how
change happens (first component)
• It describes in detail your unique ways of
understanding & addressing these issues, including:
– WHO you work with
– HOW you work with them
– To achieve or INFLUENCE what changes
– The ASSUMPTIONS you have made in designing this
pathway
12
13. Review: Domains of change
• Goal typically has 2-5 domains of change
• ToC consists of domains of change linked
together in a hypothesis to achieve desired
goal – the change pathway
Do not limit the domains of change only to
areas that you intend to address …
13
14. Map a Pathway of Change
• Numerous outcomes (sub-purposes, achievements,
pre-conditions, etc.) are desirable & will contribute to
long-term goal
• However, ALL outcomes on pathway of change should
be REQUIRED to attain the identified domain of
change
1. Prioritise outcomes (and subsequently actions linked to
each outcome)
2. Weed out incremental outcomes that may be desired but
are unnecessary to achieve the intended goal
14
15. Element 3: Impact assessment
framework
Informed by both earlier components
Provides a robust way of understanding &
reporting on Sniffer’s / project’s contribution to
change (attribution)
Enables you to test & adapt your ToC
15
16. Element 4: Reflection & refinement
of ToC
Evaluations & impact assessments will provide
information to reflect on your ToC:
• Work with right people?
• In right way?
• To what extent were assumptions valid?
• Did you negotiate barriers & facilitating factors
effectively?
• To what extent did you achieve or influence &
changes you planned?
• What does this tell you about how change
happens & your change pathway?
16
17. Elements of a ToC
– A problem statement
– A desired long-term goal
– Domains of change (key leverage points; purpose)
– Pathways of change, which include breakthroughs &
incremental outcomes
– Assumptions & risks
– Interventions for each incremental outcome
– Indicators for each incremental outcome
– Defined stakeholders & roles
– Diagram & narrative summary
17
18. 18
Problem statement
Desired long-term goal from outputs & outcomes
Domain of
change
Domain of
change
Domain of
change
S
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e
r
s
A
s
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
sPathways of Change
Breakthrough
Breakthrough
Output
Outcome
OutputOutput
Output
Outcome
Output Output
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Theory of Change conceptual model
19. Causal analysis: Identify underlying
causes (leverage points)
Look for
• Direct causes – specific conditions
contributing directly to problem
• Secondary causes – attitudes & behaviours
that contribute to specific conditions
• Tertiary causes – knowledge levels, beliefs,
practices that influence attitudes & behaviours
19
20. Underlying causes
Inventory of causes that could be contributing to a problem
helps to identify causal streams
• Household level – Household & individual constraints
(e.g., behaviours, knowledge & skill levels, attitudes,
access to assets) that limit opportunities to achieve positive
outcomes
• Community level – Weak community cohesion & lack of
shared values that hinder delivery & maintenance of social
& economic infrastructure & assets
• External level – Constraints that are external to the
community, such as government policies, delivery of
services, access to assets, market & social forces beyond
the community’s control
20
21. Constructing a ToC
Data collection & analysis (identify problems)
Draft problem statement
Causal analysis
Identify key underlying causes at the household, community, or
external level; Look for direct, secondary, tertiary causes
Problem tree
Solution tree
Pathways of change: Check theoretical assumptions between
solutions
Prioritize domains of change that project will address
Clearly outline who will address other necessary Domains
Identify interventions for each outcome, assumptions related
to interventions, & related risks
Identify indicators for each outcome.
PLAUSIBLE !
FEASIBLE !
TESTABLE !
21
22. Comparative advantage
• Identify strengths of Sniffer, Adaptation
Scotland, partners, communities, wider
stakeholders etc.
• Think outside the box – resources
available to you, people, projects,
locations where you have experience …
• Acknowledge & note weaknesses & gaps
22
23. Partnerships
• Remember that Sniffer doesn’t have to do
everything!
• Formal & informal partners fill in the gaps &
support areas where weakness may exist
• Think outside the box
– Go beyond usual suspects - don’t just restrict to
people or organisations you have worked with
– Who can best support & enable your ToC?
23
24. A typical theory of change
Inputs Processes Outputs Outcomes
After Howard White
www.3ieimpact.org
24
25. What it often looks like
Inputs Processes Outputs OutcomesProcesses Outputs
After Howard White
www.3ieimpact.org
25
26. The funnel of attritionOnly these people
may experience
improved outcomes
Howard White
www.3ieimpact.org26
27. The funnel operates within steps
in the causal chain
• Show up
• Attend
• Stay awake
• Patronised
• Pay attention
• Understand
• Agree
• Absorb
• Engage
• Retain
• Inform
• Act
After Howard White
www.3ieimpact.org 27
28. How does ToC complement other
planning & M&E processes?
• Strategic plans?
• Log frames & logic models?
• M&E systems?
• Learning loops & action research?
28
33. Influencing & barriers to adaptation
Maladaptation or past
decisions, e.g. canal
decline, investments
Current, e.g.
knowledge, attitudes &
behaviours
Remote, e.g. policy,
levels of governance &
decision-making
Proximate, within
sphere of influence,
e.g. knowledge &
perceptions
33
34. Summary
A complete ToC model provides
• A communication tool to capture complexity of
initiative
• A clear & testable set of hypotheses about how
change will occur
• A visual representation of expected change &
how it will occur
• An agreement among stakeholders about what
defines success & what it takes to achieve it
• A blueprint for evaluation with measurable
indicators of success identified
34
36. • Works best if there is an opportune moment (resources
& need to reflect):
– In preparation for new strategic plan
– Applying for new grant, developing a new project
– To inform an evaluation or impact assessment
• Few organisations undertake the whole process in one
go (if ever!)
When to develop ToC?
36
38. Caution – mind the gap
If you skip the PROCESS,
the ToC becomes a paper exercise.
It can be meaningless …
38
39. • No single or “right” answer…
• Can be 1-5 pages in length
• Short narrative & diagram
• All sorts of shapes & illustrations
• Need to be able to illustrate
– your organisational (or project) pathway to change,
– the links & assumptions you are making in choosing this path
Examples
STAR-Ghana, DFID adaptation workstreams, CARE Adaptation
Learning Programme (ALP), IDRC Climate Change Adaptation
in Africa (CCAA), Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate
Extremes and Disasters Programme (BRACED), IDRC
organisational capacity development
What does the ToC beast look like?
39
41. Moser, S. C. and J. A. Ekstrom. (2010)
A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation.
PNAS, 107 (51): 22026-22031, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1007887107
Scope & scale of adaptation
41
51. Voice mechanisms
Channels – CC Adaptation in Africa
Capacity-building model
Adaptive capacity & benchmarking
Writing & media support
Outcome mapping
Communications & story-telling
Influencing model
Mapping institutional landscape
Political economy – creating space
Governance levels & space Policy windows
51
57. Challenge – a shift in ways of working
Construction of new relationships between
communities, service providers and the State
Working both sides of the equation – to focus on
participation, responsiveness and accountability
• From ‘coping’ to ‘voice’
• From ‘shouting’ to ‘counting’
• From ‘reaction’ to ‘informed action’
• From ‘sporadic action’ to ‘organised action’
• From ‘confrontation’ to ‘win-win situation’
57
61. In group...
• Share your own experiences of considering or
developing & using Theories of Change
• Discuss
– advantages ToC might bring
– challenges/questions & doubts about developing
& using ToC
See handouts for more information
61
63. Some challenges
Balancing learning & accountability
Adapting process
to context & content
Continuing & learning & reflection
Facilitation, not
remote inputs by
committee
Reconciling ToC &
pathways for change
with other
organisational
processes
Keeping it simple
but valid
Common buzzwords
& initiatives
Separated by a common language
– different understandings of terms
Understanding where
stakeholders are coming from
– experience & perspectives
Whose reality counts?
63
65. Element 1: How change happens
Big Picture thinking
• “How change happens” in relation to issues that
Sniffer or project seeks to address
• Go beyond your own intervention & consider all
aspects of addressing identified issues
65
67. Different ways of understanding
HOW change happens
Ensure wide consultation & buy-in
Commission a research paper
Problem tree analysis
Vision of success exercise &
critical success factors
Success stories & analysis of why
they were successful
(Appreciative Inquiry, Most
Significant Change)
More academic approach
More participatory approach
67
68. Task in group / 1
1. Agree a “vision of success” in relation to
selected project
– If all issues & problems & their underlying causes
were successfully addressed, what would this look
like?
– Be quite specific – write a sentence of no more than
25 words which outlines what changes you expect to
see for whom
68
69. 2 Understand & agree key success factors to ensure
that vision becomes a reality
– List up to five key success factors
– For each success factor, be specific about
what should be in place & who should be
involved
Note: Think beyond Sniffer strategy – think PEST
politics, economics, social relations, technology etc
Task in group / 2
69
71. Element 2: Your organisational / project
Change Pathway
• Relates directly to your understanding of how
change happens (first component)
• Describes in detail your ways of understanding &
addressing these issues, including:
– WHO you work with
– HOW you work with them
– To achieve or INFLUENCE what changes
– The ASSUMPTIONS that you have made in
designing this pathway
71
72. Developing a Change Pathway - Step 1
Review & exercise
– Which areas of change can Sniffer or
project influence?
• Directly?
• Indirectly? (other factors/ organisations will also
influence these changes)
– Which areas of change lie beyond the
scope of Sniffer or project?
• Threshold of accountability
72
73. Developing Change Pathway - Step 2
– Who do you plan to work with (target groups)?
– How do you plan to work with each group?
– What short & medium term changes (for these
different groups) do you hope to achieve or influence?
– How do all of these factors link together? (What
leads to what? Who influences whom?)
– What are your assumptions in choosing this
particular pathway (why this one rather than
another)?
73
74. Which domains of change to address? Criteria
• Domain significantly contributes to achieving
the desired goal
• High synergy with other domains
• Addressing the domain & anticipated outcomes
will maximise Sniffer’s comparative advantage
• Potential for partnering
• Responds to key stakeholder or funder
interests & opportunity for resources
74
75. Use post-its for all statements – move them about
1. Clarify & write up overall goal (place on far right)
2. Identify & write up your high level strategies (what you
do with whom) – one per post it. Place in a line on the
left side
3. Create “ SO THAT” chains, i.e. by doing X we will
achieve Y change in short-term, which will lead to Z
change in long-term. Write these up (IF-THEN logic)
4. Link strategies with short-term outcomes & goals (place
post-its on chart & link with arrows)
5. Test the logic - does it work?
6. Articulate your assumptions
Suggested method for
brainstorming ToC
75
77. Element 3: Impact assessment
framework
Informed by both earlier components
Robust means of understanding & reporting
on Sniffer’s / projects’s contribution to change
Enables you to test & adapt your ToC
77
78. Impact assessment - definition
“The systematic analysis of significant
and/or lasting change – positive or
negative, intended or not – in & lives of
target groups, brought about by a given
action or a series of actions”
It explores & answers & most important
question of all:
So what ACTUALLY changed?
78
79. Why assess impact?
• To understand the implications of work
• To be accountable to stakeholders
• To support institutional learning & decision
making & to improve future work
• To contribute to policy development & effective
advocacy / influencing
• To help demonstrate organisational / project
performance & delivery – evidence & VfM!
VfM = Value for Money
79
80. Impact assessment framework
• Focus on articulated changes at all levels
• Consider & report on FIVE key questions:
– WHAT has changed (positive/
negative/intended or not)?
– For WHOM?
– How SIGNIFICANT is this?
– What, if anything, did our
organisation/programme CONTRIBUTE?
80
84. Domains of Change Framework for Empowerment & rights
1
Changes in & ability
of marginalised
women & men to
access & enjoy their
full human rights
5
Changes in individual
self confidence &
self efficacy
4
Changes in ability
and collaboration of
marginalised groups
in fighting inequality &
claiming rights
3
Changes in civil
society organisations’
capacity to support
marginalized groups
to claim their rights
2
Changes in
Governments &
non state actors[1]
willingness & ability
to deliver on their
responsibilities for
most marginalised
people
Outcomes
Policies & laws supporting rights of
marginalised people are developed
strengthened & implemented
Government & non state actors allocate
adequate resources & ensure
availability & access of services for all
marginalised people
Governments & non state actors
operate in equitable & transparent
ways
Effective & accessible mechanisms to
seek redress for marginalised people
are in place
Outcomes
CSOs facilitate space for communities &
marginalised groups to influence
decision makers
CSOs challenge duty bearers & those
discriminating against rights holders
CSOs & communities monitor duty
bearers & hold them to account
Communities are aware of & rights &
implications for their roles &
responsibilities
CSOs advocate for social change
Communities promote inclusive values
Access to available goods & services is
equitable
[1] Non state actors includes & private/ corporate sector & international organisations
Outcomes
Marginalized women men, girls & boys
have improved self image
Marginalized women men, girls & boys
feel capable of & can influence
decisions that affect their lives
Marginalized women men, girls & boys
have adequate life skills, including
literacy & numeracy
Marginalized women, men, girls & are
secure & safe
Outcomes
Marginalised groups better understand
their rights & responsibilities
Marginalised groups coordinate and/or
play a role in bringing about change
Marginalised groups influence decision
makers in issues that concern their lives
Marginalised groups call on existing
legislation & judicial services & systems
to support their rights & hold duty
bearers to account claims
Marginalised groups actively participate
in democratic spaces
84
90. Reflection & questions
Think about the different elements &
processes
• What did you find most interesting/useful about
each element?
• Any questions? Areas where you would like
further discussion or clarification?
90
91. Impact assessment: approaches
Three approaches
– Post-programme: Testing logic of log frame
(impact “evaluation”)
– Participatory ToC approach used to design
monitor & assess efforts
– Research: looking back sometime later &
assessing changes & their relation to project
efforts
91
92. Impact assessment: strategies
Four strategies
• Build into existing M&E
• Tracer & tracker studies
• Ensure key moments of critical reflection
• Commission retrospective study
92
95. What’s involved in developing/
facilitating a ToC process?
• Starting point & initial preparation of partners
• Starting from the end-point vision
• Securing buy in & ownership
• Strong workshop process & facilitation
• Commitment to follow up
• Ensure results are communicated & used
effectively
95
96. Constructing a ToC
Data collection & analysis (identify problems)
Draft problem statement
Causal analysis
Identify key underlying causes at the household, community, or
external level; Look for direct, secondary, tertiary causes
Problem tree
Solution tree
Pathways of change: Check theoretical assumptions
between solutions
Prioritize domains of change that project will address
Clearly outline who will address other necessary Domains
Identify interventions for each outcome, assumptions
related to interventions, & related risks
Identify indicators for each outcome.
PLAUSIBLE !
FEASIBLE !
TESTABLE !
96
97. Thoughts
• Theories not Theory
• Embrace uncertainty
• Beware magic bullets
• Assume you will be wrong, at least to start
• Getting the right PROCESS and PLAYERS
matters more than ‘the Perfect Plan’
97
98. International Climate Fund
transformational criteria / 1
• Scale: National, sectoral or economy-wide programmes
including institutional and policy reform so that reaches critical
deployment mass
• Replicable: Projects that others can copy, leading to larger scale
or faster roll-out, for example, key policy changes
• Innovative: Piloting new ways of achieving objectives that could
lead to wider and sustained change. These projects are often
high risk but with corresponding high potential returns
• Leverage: Projects that leverage others to help increase the
impact beyond the project itself should increase the likelihood of
this being transformational, by unlocking potential for scaling-up
and replication.
98
99. ICF transformational criteria / 2
• Sustainable: Programmes that are sustainable are more likely to
have an impact after they have ended. However, not all piloting
and innovation programmes will be sustainable, as there is an
element of experimentation and risk involved
• Political will and local ownership: Working with national
stakeholders, including the powerful, who want to deliver change
consistent with their own political economy will be more effective
•
• Increased capacity and capability to act: Strengthening local
capacity supports continued action on climate change and lays
the conditions for transformational change
• Evidence of effectiveness is credible and shared widely.
Others are unlikely to follow unless they are confident of the case
for change. This argues for substantial and quality M&E of key
projects, presenting failure alongside success.
99
100. Case study task: Plan a ToC approach
to planning and / or evaluation
• Work in buzz pairs or group
• Develop an outline plan for developing or
facilitating a ToC approach, in Sniffer or
with your partners
• Discuss & answer questions set
• Make notes to report back on key points
100
101. Setting the context / 1
• At what level will you be working?
– Sniffer? Adaptation Scotland?
– Projects(s) within Sniffer?
– Partner organisation(s) to common goal?
– Other?
• Why planning to introduce/ develop a ToC ?
• Which elements will you prioritise?
• Why now?
101
102. Setting the context / 2
• What (if any) elements of Theory of Change
already exist within Sniffer, partners or project?
• How might ToC complement existing planning &
evaluation tools & processes?
• How much time & resources are available?
Note: you may not be able to answer all questions,
but you should be able to before you start the process
102
103. Introducing the ToC approach
• How secure interest in developing &
APPLYING the ToC approach?
• How develop COMMON framing?
• How ALIGN the buzzwords & initiatives?
• How avoid being DIVIDED by an apparently
common language (but different
understandings)?
103
104. Draft a plan to pilot / 1
Draft an outline plan for a workshop
exercise (or series of exercises with
different stakeholders) …
… to enable participants to help in
development
… of one or more elements of ToC
104
105. Draft a plan to pilot / 2
Specify
– Purpose & intended outcome of
workshop(s)
– Which stakeholders would be involved
– Elements you plan to cover
– Some of processes or methods you
might use to enable participants to
contribute effectively to the process
105
106. How do you plan
to apply ToC training?
How can you use results in planning
and / or impact assessments, e.g.
– Sniffer / Adaptation Scotland
– Glasgow CARES
– Climate Ready Communities
106
