VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
Beyond the Horizon
1. W E L C O M E
A L A N E H R E T
J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 0
D o w n l o a d l i n k :
2. Mark Lovett
Head
of Investments
Marius Oberholzer
Head of STANLIB
Absolute Return
Kevin Lings
STANLIB
Chief Economist
AGENDA
Stafford Masie
General Manager,
WeWork
4. D e l i v e r i n g c o m p e l l i n g i n v e s t m e n t s
Q u a r t i l e r a n k i n g a s a t 2 4 J a n u a r y 2 0 2 0
4
Fund 1 year 3 years 5 years
STANLIB Income Fund 1 1 1
STANLIB Absolute Plus Fund 4 1 2
STANLIB Balanced Fund 1 1 3
STANLIB Property Income Fund 2 4 3
STANLIB Global Property Fund 3 4 3
STANLIB Equity Fund 1 1 2
STANLIB Global Equity Fund 1 1 1
STANLIB Global Balanced Fund 1 1 1
STANLIB Multi-Manager Balanced Fund 2 2 1
STANLIB Multi-Manager Global Equity Fund 2 2 2
Source Morningstar
5. SOUTH AFRICA TRAPPED IN LOW GROWTH
CYCLE HURT BY INEPT POLITICS
K E V I N L I N G S
J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 0
7. W o r l d G D P g r o w t h
% y / y , U S D o l l a r s
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: World Bank
8. W o r l d t r a d e v o l u m e s
% y / y
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2017
2018
2019
Source: Netherlands Statistical Bureau
9. W o r l d i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n
% y / y
-15
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Industrial production
Source: Netherlands Statistical Bureau
12. P h a s e 1 t r a d e d e a l b e t w e e n U S a n d C h i n a
Source: US White House
Reduce tariff rate imposed
on 1 Sept 2019 on $120bn
of Chinese goods from
15% to 7.5%.
What did the China agree to do?
Increase purchases of US
goods and services by
$200bn over next 2 years
What did the U.S agree to do?
13. U S m o n t h l y e m p l o y m e n t c h a n g e s
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
000’s
Source: US Department of Labour
14. U S c o n s u m e r c o n f i d e n c e
I n d e x
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Source: US Conference Board
15. U S h o u s e h o l d s : n e t w o r t h
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Source: US Federal Reserve
$ B i l l i o n
17. U S o f f i c i a l i n t e r e s t r a t e s
%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: US Federal Reserve
18. U S F e d e r a l R e s e r v e t o t a l a s s e t s
$ b i l l i o n
500
800
1100
1400
1700
2000
2300
2600
2900
3200
3500
3800
4100
4400
4700
5000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
QE 1 QE 2 QE 3
Source: US Federal Reserve
19. U S p r o b a b i l i t y o f r e c e s s i o n i n d i c a t o r ( N e w Yo r k F e d )
P r o b a b i l i t y o f r e c e s s i o n i n d i c a t o r , %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Source: US New York Federal Reserve
21. S A G D P a n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e
% y / y
3.0
3.3
2.2
2.5
1.8
1.2
0.4
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: SA Reserve & STANLIB
22. Weak export performance
Sustained deterioration in
government finances
Fragile SOE sector Slowing household income
Extremely low business
confidence
5
S o u t h Af r i c a
f a c i n g i m m e d i a t e
e c o n o m i c
c o n s t r a i n t s
24. -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Latvia
Poland
Korea
Estonia
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Iceland
Hungary
France
Mexico
Denmark
Sweden
Australia
Switzerland
Canada
Norway
Israel
Germany
Austria
United States
Japan
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Spain
Italy
Russia
Greece
South Africa
G r o w t h i n G D P p e r h o u r w o r k e d
Source: OECD (organisation for economic co-operation and development)
% y / y , a v e r a g e p a s t f i v e y e a r s
25. Tax budgeted
in SA was
below target
target
9.2%
actual
3.3%
Source: SA National Treasury
26. S A g o v e r n m e n t g r o s s l o a n d e b t a s % o f G D P
%
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Government debt projection at the time of Feb 2019 National Budget
Source: SA National Treasury
27. S A g o v e r n m e n t g r o s s l o a n d e b t a s % o f G D P
%
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Government debt projection at the time of Oct 2019 MTBPS
Source: SA National Treasury
28. S A’ s i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n g o v e n m e n t d e b t a n d G D P g r o w t h
% of GDP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
GDP growth, 4-quarter moving ave
Government debt as % GDP (LHS)
GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: SA National Treasury and SA Reserve Bank
29. G r o w t h i n f i x e d i n v e s t m e n t s p e n d i n g b y S O E s
% year-on-year, 4-quarter moving ave
-18
-13
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
34. Consumer inflation
well under control
Modest improvement in private
sector maintenance capex
Government intention to restructure
SAA and revitalise Eskom.
Rand exchange supported
Increase in the number of people
prosecuted
Sout h A f rica:
Some posit ives
36. Persistence of
unconventional monetary policy
Impact of climate change
Changing demographics
Growth in automation
and artificial intelligence
Rise of
nationalism and trade protection
5K ey global
t rends
37. E u r o - a r e a o f f i c i a l i n t e r e s t r a t e s
Q E t o c o n t i n u e u n t i l i n f l a t i o n i s b a c k a t t h e t a r g e t l e v e l o f 2 %
0
1
2
3
4
5
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: European Central Bank
39. G l o b a l l a n d a n d o c e a n t e m p e r a t u r e a n o m a l i e s
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: National Centres for environmental information
D e g r e e s c e l c i u s
43. C o n c l u s i o n
SA credit rating likely to be revised
US Fed likely to keep rates steady,
but with additional liquidity
SA inflation well contained
US growth heavily supported by
consumer spending
SA economic growth
facing constraints
World growth negatively impacted
by US/China trade war
45. L I Q U I D I T Y
TA A p r o c e s s
T A A v i e w s i n f o r m e d b y
M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
S E N T I M E N TE C O N O M I C S V A L U A T I O N S M O M E N T U M V O L A T I L I T Y
45
48. S O F R h a d a h e a r t a t t a c k !
F E D B a l a n c e s h e e t
48
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
3700
3750
3800
3850
3900
3950
4000
4050
4100
4150
4200
2/1/2019 3/1/2019 4/1/2019 5/1/2019 6/1/2019 7/1/2019 8/1/2019 9/1/2019 10/1/2019 11/1/2019 12/1/2019 1/1/2020
FED B/S in $ Bn's SOFR RATE
Source: Bloomberg
S O F R R a t e l i n e
49. 1. “A soft landing in 2020” - Economic Forecast Luncheon, Wisconsin Bankers Association, Madison, Wisconson. January 9th 2020
2. Speech to New York Association of Business Economics – November 26th 2019
3. Speech at C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, 9th January 2020
D o n ’ t F i g h t T h e F e d
– Governor
Lael Brainard 3
“monetary policy should
achieve average
inflation outcomes of 2
percent over time to
re-anchor inflation
expectations at
our target”
– Vice Federal
Reserve Chair
Richard Clarida 2
“A 2% inflation target is
not a ceiling and
framework. Review
could have an element
of average inflation
targeting”
– Jim Bullard 1
“If we did get some
upward inflation
pressure, at this point I
think it would be a
welcome development
even if it pushed
inflation above target for
a time. . . so bring it on
is what I would say.”
49
54. -10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
12 Month Last
S A B o n d s
R a t e C h a n g e s v s 1 2 M P r i o r
54
Source Bloomberg
Cost of Capital Worksheet : stnlinasfund02stnlinasfund02Fund ManagersAbsolute ReturnMFOInvestmentsAsset AllocationTAATAA Models - MariusLiquidity
58. B e y o n d t h e h o r i z o n
` `
Shareholder vs Stakeholder One China policy Baby-boomers (busters)
Big tech has its wings clipped Active makes a comeback 60/40?
6T H E R I S I N G /
W E D I D N ’ T
S TA R T T H E
F I R E
58
60. 60
W h a t f e e l s c o n s e n s u s
Global growth to rebound driven by Europe and EM
Ex-US assets to out-perform as a result
Peak tariffs + trade tensions to subside…
Inflation to stay controlled ….
Credit risk remains low …
EU political break-up risk is low ….
Concentrated positioning in low-volatility assets ….
Volatility to remain supressed…….
But SA to lag
But remain and issue longer-term
We are watching wages closely (low probability) it could impact
margins and change Fed stance
Not so sure and don’t think compensation is high enough
For now (12-36/54 months). Brexit success is likely to make a
difference
Volatility is cheap
Perhaps, what if it doesn’t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
General consensus Our view
61. 61
Attractive Dislike
2020
Asset Allocation Dislike Dislike Somewhat Neutral
Somewhat
Attractive
Attractive
Equity Region SA,
U.S
China
India
LATAM
UK
Europe,
Japan,
EM
Equity Sector SA Property
Utilities, defensive
Fang Type, NPN,
Resources,
Global Property
Software,
Hardware,
Oil services,
European Banks,
U.S Banks, U.S
midcaps
Sovereign Bonds
JP, Europe,
Australia
U.S
SA Bonds, EM
local, EM $ Bonds
Africa $ bonds
and Local, SA
CASH
Duration Bonds
Europe, US, JP,
UK, Australia
SA Linkers SA
Credit Europe, U.S IG U.S HY EM SA
FX ZAR
$, Euro, Yen,
AUD;
UK
Commodity Palladium
Gold , Platinum,
Iron Ore
Oil Copper
S e l e c t i o n o f a s s e t c l a s s v i e w s – i n t o 2 0 2 0
66. S A E q u i t y – D e c o m p o s i t i o n o f r e t u r n s
-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19Earnings Growth Dividend Yield P/E Expansion Total Return
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
21 Years: Drivers of Cumulative Return
Decomposition of Returns South Africa Equity Markets
66
Source Bloomberg
67. S e l e c t i o n o f a s s e t c l a s s v i e w s – i n t o 2 0 2 0
Attractive Dislike
2020
67
Asset Allocation Dislike Dislike Somewhat Neutral
Somewhat
Attractive
Attractive
Equity Region SA,
U.S
China
India
LATAM
UK
Europe,
Japan,
EM
Equity Sector SA Property
Utilities, defensive
Fang Type, NPN,
Resources,
Global Property
Software,
Hardware,
Oil services,
European Banks,
U.S Banks, U.S
midcaps
Sovereign Bonds
JP, Europe,
Australia
U.S
SA Bonds, EM
local, EM $ Bonds
Africa $ bonds
and Local, SA
CASH
Duration Bonds
Europe, US, JP,
UK, Australia
SA Linkers SA
Credit Europe, U.S IG U.S HY EM SA
FX ZAR
$, Euro, Yen,
AUD;
UK
Commodity Palladium
Gold , Platinum,
Iron Ore
Oil Copper
68. “A good portfolio is more than a
long list of good stocks and bonds.
It is a balanced whole, providing the
investor with protections and
opportunities with respect to a wide
range of contingencies.”
P r o f e s s o r H a r r y M a r k o w i t z
68
72. C o n c l u s i o n
72
Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future performance. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending.
The manager of the Scheme is STANLIB Collective Investments (RF) (PTY) Ltd (the Manager). The Manager is authorised in terms of the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act, No. 45 of 2002 (CISCA) to
administer Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) in Securities. Liberty is a full member of the Association for Savings and Investments of South Africa (ASISA). The Manager is a member of the Liberty Group of
Companies. The manager has a right to close a portfolio to new investors in order to manage the portfolio more efficiently in accordance with its mandate. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum
commissions is available on request the Manager. The Manager does not provide any guarantee either with respect to the capital or the return of a CIS portfolio. Forward pricing is used.
All performance returns and ranking figures quoted are shown in ZAR and are based on data sourced from Morningstar as at 31 December 2019 and January 2020.
Portfolio performance figures are calculated for the relevant class of the portfolio, for a lump sum investment, on a NAV-NAV basis, with income reinvested on the ex-dividend date. Individual investor performance
may differ due to initial fees, actual investment date, date of reinvestment of income and dividend withholding tax. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur. Annualised
return figures are the compound annualised growth rate (CAGR) calculated from the cumulative return for the period being measured. These annualised returns provide an indication of the annual return achieved
over the period had an investment been held for the entire period.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are registered Collective Investment Schemes, listed on an exchange and may therefore incur additional costs. Participatory interests in a CIS-ETF cannot be purchased directly
from the Manager. A CIS-ETF is subject to exchange listing requirements and settlement cycles for equities and all trading in a CIS-ETF is through an exchange. It may take a few days longer to receive the
proceeds of a sale of a CIS-ETF than would be the case for a CIS. Trading in ETFs will incur the normal costs associated with listed securities, including brokerage, settlement costs, Uncertified Securities Tax
(UST), other statutory costs and administrative costs. The price at which ETFs trade on an Exchange may differ from the Net Asset Value price published at the close of the trading day, because of intra-day price
movements in the value of the constituent basket of securities.
A fund of funds is a portfolio that invests in portfolios of collective investment schemes, that levy their own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for these portfolios
A Feeder Fund portfolio is a portfolio that invests in a single portfolio of a collective investment scheme that levies its own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for the Feeder Fund.
A money market portfolio is not a bank deposit account. The price of each participatory interest (unit) is aimed at a constant value. The total return to the investor is primarily made up of interest received but, may
also include any gain or loss made on any particular instrument. In most cases this will merely have the effect of increasing or decreasing the daily yield, but in an extreme case it can have the effect of reducing
the capital value of the portfolio. . An annualised seven day rolling average effective yield is calculated for Money Market Portfolios. Excessive withdrawals from the portfolio may place the portfolio under liquidity
pressures; and that in such circumstances a process of ring-fencing of withdrawal instructions and managed pay-outs over time may be followed.
A portfolio that derives its income primarily from interest-bearing instruments calculates its yield daily and is a current effective yield.
As neither STANLIB Asset Management (Pty) Limited nor its representatives did a full needs analysis in respect of a particular investor, the investor understands that there may be limitations on the
appropriateness of any information in this document with regard to the investor’s unique objectives, financial situation and particular needs. The information and content of this document are intended to be for
information purposes only and should not be construed as advice. STANLIB does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any information contained herein. STANLIB Asset Management (Pty) Limited does
not expressly or by implication propose that the products or services offered in this document are appropriate to the particular investment objectives or needs of any existing or prospective client. Potential investors
are advised to seek independent advice from an authorized financial adviser in this regard. STANLIB Asset Management (Pty) Limited is an authorised Financial Services Provider in terms of the Financial Advisory
and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002 (Licence No. 26/10/719). Depending on the entity: STANLIB Multi-Manager (Pty) Ltd/ STANLIB Wealth Management (Pty) Ltd
Compliance number: xxx
Notes de l'éditeur
Khanya – I have re-orded the labels but I would like them to run
MO G 499
Start with black SOFR Rate line (RHS) and then click through to bring in FED Balance sheet (LHS)
I will need to update “precictit.com” website for odds etc- please look for images of:
1.
Source Bloomberg
Cost of Capital Worksheet : \\stnlinasfund02\stnlinasfund02\Fund Managers\Absolute Return\MFO\Investments\Asset Allocation\TAA\TAA Models - Marius\Liquidity
