Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity and transformation
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Andy Stirling, co-director of the STEPS Centre, talks about the Centre's appproach to sustainable energy for development issues at the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network's second international conference at the University of Sussex, September 2012
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Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity and transformation
- 1. Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity and transformation presentation to conference of Low Carbon Energy for Development Network on 'Transitions to low carbon energy systems: which pathways to energy access for all?', University of Sussex, 10th September 2012 Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre
- 2. One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation “you can’t stop progress” … - The Economist PROGRESS “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… ` - President Obama “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” - Premier Wen Jiabao “One can not impede scientific progress.” - President Ahmadinejad TECHNOLOGY all innovation is progress… Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action” - EU Council of Ministers “we need more pro-innovation policies” - PM Gordon Brown “… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” - PM David Cameron
- 3. One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Lord Alec Broers, President, RAEng The challenge of government: …“history is a race to “to strive to stay advance technology” in the race”… Technology: The role of the public: “will determine the future “to give technology of the human race’” the status it deserves”…
- 4. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives… no politics … no choice !
- 5. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast? … who leads?
- 6. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast?’ … who leads? Seriously neglects questions over: which way? …what alternatives? says who? …why?
- 8. Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways “low carbon energy” Not all that is conceivable, feasible, viable – will be fully realisable
- 9. Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03) studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
- 10. Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83) path-dependence (David, 85) path creation (Karnoe, 01)
- 11. Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91) /politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)
- 12. Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi, 82)
- 13. Politics within Knowledge material and social realities What is sustainable energy?
- 14. A ‘STEPS view’ stylised representation material and social realities ‘sustainability’ ‘energy system’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ ‘cause’
- 15. A ‘STEPS view’ reflexive framing stylised representation material and social realities ‘sustainability’ environment ‘energy system’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ local people ‘cause’
- 16. A ‘STEPS view’ plural intentions diverse pictures material and social realities ‘sustainability’ environment ‘energy system’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ nt rnme ‘cause’ gove local people
- 17. A ‘STEPS view’ plural intentions diverse pictures material and social realities ‘sustainability’ c emi ‘energy system’ ad ac ‘system’ ‘effect’ nt rnme ‘cause’ gove local people
- 18. A ‘STEPS view’ plural intentions diverse pictures material and social realities ess ‘sustainability’ environment s in bu c mi de ‘system’ aca “SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PATHWAY” ‘cause’ nt rnme ‘effect’ gove local people time
- 19. A ‘STEPS view’ CONTEXTS interacting processes subjects and objects social and physical agencies and structures discourses expectations imaginations values intentions “SUSTAINABLE ‘system’ ENERGY PATHWAY” material world institutions practices interests technologies ecologies power relations a self-reinforcing trajectory of change time
- 20. Ambiguous Sustainability typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…
- 21. Ambiguous Sustainability typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture… coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low SUSTAINABILITY high externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
- 22. Ambiguous Sustainability typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture… n= coal oil gas minimum 25% 75% maximum nuclear 2 hydro wind solar biomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low SUSTAINABILITY high ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
- 23. Ambiguous Sustainability typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture… n= coal 36 oil 20 gas 31 nuclear 21 hydro 16 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low SUSTAINABILITY high ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
- 24. Ambiguous Sustainability an indicative STEPS approach… (MCM, deliberation,Q- / ethno-methods) deliberate reasons coal - scenarios oil - values - uncertaiinties gas - winners / losers - assumptions nuclear - expectations hydro - irreversibilities …etc wind solar biomass ‘plural and conditional’ exploration of framings low SUSTAINABILITY high NGO industry academic
- 25. Ambiguous Sustainability an indicative STEPS approach… (MCM, deliberation,Q- / ethno-methods) deliberate reasons coal - scenarios oil - values - uncertaiinties gas - winners / losers - assumptions nuclear - expectations hydro - irreversibilities …etc wind solar biomass ‘plural and conditional’ exploration of framings low SUSTAINABILITY high N i academic
- 26. Direction, Distribution … and Diversity… Focus directly on diversity in ‘social innovation’ for sustainable energy offshore wave large tidal barrage marine / hydro renewables tidal stream shoreline wave hydro offshore wind geothermal solar PV terrestrial wind (micro) non-combustion renewables terrestrial wind (large) nuclear nuclear municipal waste landfill gas coal + CCS coal combustion renewables and biomass regional fossil fuels gas CCGT + CCS - Norway gas CCGT + CCS - UKCS gas CCGT - Norway gas CCGT – UKCS oil gas CCGT – LNG fossil fuels with carbon capture gas CCGT – continental d
- 27. Direction, Distribution … and Diversity… Focus directly on diversity in ‘social innovation’ for sustainable energy offshore wave large tidal barrage marine / hydro renewables tidal stream shoreline wave hydro offshore wind geothermal solar PV non-combustion terrestrial wind (micro) renewables terrestrial wind (large) nuclear nuclear municipal waste landfill gas coal + CCS coal combustion renewables biomass and regional fossil fuels gas CCGT + CCS - Norway gas CCGT + CCS - UKCS gas CCGT - Norway gas CCGT – UKCS oil gas CCGT – LNG fossil fuels with carbon capture gas CCGT – continental d
- 28. Direction, Distribution … and Diversity… Spaces and tools for analysing and deliberating the “3Ds”
- 29. ‘Closing Down’ ‘Sustainable Transitions’ privileged POSSIBLE power reinforces visions pressures for ‘lock-in’ innovation union PATHWAYS knowledge economy multiple feasible Innovation trajectories IIIIII € $ power ‘closes down’ power ‘narrows in’ expert outputs to policy inputs to appraisal analysis institutionalised pressures for justification presumed visions force unitary ‘‘expert’ Options technical risk narrow perspectives assessment prescriptions aggregated attention single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ / regulatory capture Sustainability most ‘legitimate’ technocratic procedures decisions / transitions
- 30. ‘Opening Up’ Democratic Transformations: plural energy sustainabilities POSSIBLE diverse diversity in technology knowledge portfolios innovation union PATHWAYS pathways democracy knowledge economy IIIIII IIIIII help catalyse: $ $ democratic accountability context sensitivity social robustness broad-based ‘opening up’ politics of evidence as choice choice expert sustainable energy discourse analysis inclusive participation ‘transition’ depends on: broad transdisciplinary contexts, perspectives, Options notions of sustainability sensitivities, scenarios, - ‘plural and conditional’ multiple priorities public policy advice uncertainties Sustainability diverse possible pathways