Presentation by Michael Jacobs at the STEPS Centre Summer School, June 2013.
http://steps-centre.org/about/steps-summer-school/
Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqzcHzX6K8w
7. The median 2C pathway
(66% chance) in 2020:
44 GtCO2e
Business as usual:
58 GtCO2e
Current country pledges:
52-57 GtCO2e
Emissions gap:
8 to 13 GtCO2e
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2012
The emissions gap
30. Listed fossil fuel reserves v 2°C carbon budget
Listed reserves are a
quarter of all known
fossil fuel reserves
Current listed reserves
(762GtCO2) far exceed
a quarter of the total
carbon budgets but
could double
(1541GtCO2)
If we break the 2°C
budget we very quickly
hit 2.5°C and 3°C
30
Potential listed
reserves
Current listed
reserves
GHG/CO2 emissions trends (atmospheric GHG/CO2 in ppm)UNEP 2012 Gap Report: Current global GHG emissions based on 2010 data from bottom-up emission inventory studies 50.1 GtCO2eWMO report: Atmospheric CO2 at 390.9ppm in 2011
Emissions Gap report p9
Emissions Gap report p23
Other predictions WB 4c report
World Bank report p26 Fig 25
World Bank report p32 Fig 28
World Bank report p45 Table 3
US Drought Monitor Aug 29 212 – World Bank report p14 Fig 17
An estimated 14,000 fatalities in France alone
Swiss Re: over the last 40 years global insured losses from climate-related disasters have jumped from an annual US$5 billion to approximately US$60 billion in 2011
Global investment in renewable power and fuels increased 17% to a new record of $257 billion in 2011This was more than six times the figure for 2004, and 94% more than the total in 2007, the last year before the acute phase of the world financial crisis.
Current: Gov’t policies enacted/adopted by mid-2012 continue unchangedNew: Existing policies maintained and recently announced commitments and plans, including those yet to be formally adopted are implemented in a cautious manner450: Policies adopted that put world on pathway consistent with having 50% chance of limiting temperature increase to 2C
- Already in 2011, the world has used over a third of its 50-year carbon budget of 886GtCO2, leaving 565GtCO2- All of the proven reserves owned by private and public companies and governments are equivalent to 2,795 GtCO2- Fossil fuel reserves owned by the top 100 listed coal and top 100 listed oil and gas companies represent total emissions of 745GtCO2- Only 20% of the total reserves can be burned unabated, leaving up to 80% of assets technically unburnable
Governments own the majority of reserves – especially oil and gas. So if the budgets are applied pro rate to listed companies (ie a quarter), this shows the carbon budget deficit they are facing.Yet these companies actually have interests in up to double the current reserves in unproven undeveloped resources; ie heading in the wrong direction.Perhaps most concerning is that if we exceed the 2 degrees budget, there is rapid progression through the temperatures.