1. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 6 May 2011
Services PMI climbs to 61.4 in April: the service economy
stabilizes at a high level
• The purchasing managers’ index for service companies (Services PMI) rose
marginally from 61.2 in March to 61.4 in April. The index trend over the past few
months indicates continued improvement in the economy within the private services
sector, albeit at a lower rate.
• Of the four component indices, new orders accounted for the largest positive
contribution, followed by a modest increase in delivery times. The indices for
business activity and employment dropped in April, but remain in the upper part of
the growth zone.
• The index for planned business activity fell from 70.3 in March to 68.1 – its lowest
level since February 2010. Despite companies’ downward revisions in production
plans, this index level suggests continued expansion over the next six months albeit
at a lower rate.
• The index for suppliers' intermediate goods prices dropped from 65.7 in March to
65.1 in April. Higher transportation costs due to the high price of oil and the strong
Swedish economy will likely contribute to rising price pressure in the private services
sector. This index has increased by 4.9 points since April 2010.
75
Purchasing Managers' Index - Services
70
65
60
55
50
45
Seasonally Adjusted
40 Original
35
30
okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Next publication of Services PMI: Wednesday June 7, 2011
4. Silf/Swedbank’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
- objectives and methodology
History Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of
the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four
indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S.
based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been
published since November 1994
Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.
Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.
Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.
Composition
of PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35
Business activity (within the company) 25
Employment (within the company) 20
Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20
Other leading indicators
(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders
Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices
Planned business activity next six months
Objective Quick economic indicator
Simple statistics
Statistics with relatively short publication intervals
Constant contact with a well-informed professional group
Calculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for
the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by
0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as
described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’
Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly
changes in activity in the service sector.
“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis –
has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral
growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at
50 indicates a target value.
We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI –
Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization
for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for
any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background
material as well.
Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing
Managers’ Index – Services.