1. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 6 April 2011
Services PMI drops to 61.2 in March: a slight decline from a
high level
• The purchasing managers’ index for service companies (Services PMI) dropped
from 62.4 in February to 61.2 in March, thereby reaching its lowest level since
September 2010. This drop was from a high level, however, and the majority of
service companies are still reporting improving business conditions, albeit at a more
moderate pace.
• Of the four component indices, new orders accounted for the most significant
decrease, followed by employment and supplier delivery times. The index for service
companies’ business activity, on the other hand, climbed in March relative to the
previous month.
• The index for planned business activity remained unchanged compared to the
previous month at 70.3. Service companies’ business activity plans thus indicate
that business will grow for the next six months, although the plans have been
revised downward somewhat from the last quarter of 2010.
• Though the price index for supplier intermediate goods prices fell from 69.9 in
February to 65.1 in March, most companies report rising prices. The strong Swedish
economy and higher global commodity prices have likely contributed to the higher
price pressure in the private service sector.
PMI – Services
(Purchasing Managers’
Index - Services)
Seasonally
adjusted
2011 mar 61,2
feb 62,4
jan 65,9
2010 dec 66,0
nov 64,2
okt 63,7
sep 61,0
aug 63,9
jul 62,7
jun 59,1
maj 58,8
apr 62,5
Next publication of Services PMI: Wednesday May 4, 2011
Jörgen Kennemar. Swedbank, Economic Research Department. Phone + 46-8-58597730
Administration. Phone +46-8-5859 7740. Fax +46-5859 3540. e-mail ek.sekr@swedbank.se
Sebastian Bergfelt. Silf. Phone +46-73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
3. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
6 April 2011, continued
Silf / Swedbanks' Purchasing Mangers' Index Service Sector, original
Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast
Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned
activity times business
activity
2005 nov 53,8 60,3 47,6 57,3 46,0 50,8 46,0 65,1
dec 54,8 57,1 50,8 60,3 46,0 57,9 50,0 65,9
2006 jan 53,7 57,0 50,8 53,9 52,3 54,0 46,9 65,6
feb 57,5 63,8 52,6 57,8 54,3 56,9 49,1 63,2
mar 63,6 72,6 51,2 66,7 59,5 66,7 48,8 65,5
apr 59,6 63,6 52,7 63,6 54,6 55,6 53,6 70,9
may 63,6 69,2 52,9 67,3 60,6 62,5 56,7 76,0
jun 72,3 78,8 61,0 76,8 67,5 68,3 61,0 73,8
jul 58,9 58,1 62,8 55,8 61,6 54,7 52,3 67,4
aug 66,5 71,6 53,4 69,3 68,2 63,6 54,5 69,3
sep 64,0 72,6 53,5 68,6 55,8 64,0 57,0 66,3
okt 60,8 67,0 56,1 61,2 57,1 55,0 53,0 66,0
nov 62,2 64,1 62,0 59,8 64,1 56,5 52,2 69,6
dec 63,6 67,4 57,4 64,9 62,8 56,4 48,9 71,3
2007 jan 60,9 63,3 58,3 62,2 58,2 57,1 59,2 71,4
feb 61,7 68,9 60,0 62,2 53,3 64,0 61,1 71,1
mar 60,7 63,4 52,4 64,6 58,5 59,8 56,1 69,5
apr 68,7 76,2 59,5 73,8 59,5 67,9 59,5 70,2
may 63,8 66,3 60,5 65,1 61,6 69,8 62,8 70,9
jun 68,0 69,0 60,7 70,2 70,2 66,7 57,1 67,1
jul 56,1 56,3 64,1 53,1 53,1 53,1 59,4 65,6
aug 58,8 60,0 57,8 57,8 60,2 55,6 57,8 60,2
sep 60,4 63,1 58,1 58,1 63,4 58,1 53,5 61,6
oct 56,7 55,6 57,8 55,6 59,1 52,2 55,6 67,8
nov 59,1 65,8 55,3 57,9 56,6 55,3 57,9 51,3
dec 58,4 62,5 54,7 57,8 57,8 62,5 57,8 56,3
2008 jan 52,5 52,4 50,0 51,2 57,3 50,0 64,6 65,0
feb 55,3 55,4 54,2 58,1 51,4 61,1 62,2 65,3
mar 55,8 56,8 50,0 56,8 58,6 55,6 59,5 72,2
apr 55,3 56,4 48,7 53,8 62,8 56,4 57,7 65,4
may 63,6 72,7 51,5 60,6 69,7 59,4 59,1 68,2
jun 58,0 62,5 53,1 53,1 65,6 50,0 65,6 67,2
jul 49,0 50,0 48,3 41,4 62,1 37,9 67,2 60,3
aug 52,3 55,0 48,3 48,3 60,0 51,7 56,7 60,0
sep 54,3 60,3 48,5 50,0 60,3 39,7 58,8 55,9
oct 42,0 43,8 46,8 34,4 48,4 43,3 56,3 46,9
nov 42,2 42,6 50,0 33,8 48,5 32,4 50,0 39,4
dec 34,4 33,3 37,5 33,3 34,4 34,8 40,9 36,4
2009 jan 30,0 25,7 39,7 30,0 25,7 22,1 50,0 31,4
feb 37,1 35,5 38,7 35,5 40,3 37,1 48,4 41,9
mar 41,9 46,8 39,1 45,3 32,8 42,2 48,4 37,5
apr 42,7 44,2 38,5 44,2 42,3 42,3 44,2 50,0
may 43,6 48,4 43,5 46,8 32,3 41,9 43,5 48,4
jun 47,3 50,0 43,5 51,6 40,3 48,4 37,1 54,8
jul 38,5 37,5 41,1 39,3 35,7 35,7 41,1 55,6
aug 47,5 53,3 39,7 53,3 37,9 50,0 45,0 55,0
sep 50,9 56,7 46,6 58,3 35,0 55,2 50,0 58,3
oct 54,7 61,7 48,3 61,7 40,0 61,7 43,3 60,0
nov 49,6 55,4 48,2 53,6 37,0 53,6 41,1 64,3
dec 43,7 48,1 44,4 46,2 33,3 46,3 48,1 57,4
2010 jan 49,9 51,9 48,1 53,7 42,6 50,0 50,0 59,3
feb 59,8 62,2 53,9 67,1 50,0 63,2 47,4 76,3
mar 62,7 67,9 56,0 66,7 56,0 63,4 56,1 72,6
apr 65,0 69,4 60,4 68,7 57,5 64,4 61,9 77,6
may 62,3 64,5 60,5 63,7 59,0 62,5 65,3 73,4
jun 65,2 67,9 65,5 66,4 59,5 65,5 63,8 72,4
jul 58,9 59,0 64,0 58,0 55,0 56,1 64,0 72,0
aug 65,8 68,3 60,8 70,5 59,2 66,4 61,5 69,7
sep 63,2 63,5 65,3 66,7 54,8 61,1 64,3 73,0
oct 63,4 64,8 62,8 66,5 56,6 60,4 58,6 75,2
nov 62,5 63,8 59,1 64,4 60,7 60,5 62,2 74,6
dec 62,1 65,3 62,2 62,2 57,7 58,5 59,3 73,0
2011 jan 60,3 63,1 58,6 60,5 58,1 58,5 68,5 75,4
feb 60,9 60,8 62,5 60,8 59,6 60,8 70,0 70,6
mar 62,2 67,3 58,1 61,9 60,3 58,8 64,8 70,4
3 (4)
4. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
6 April 2011, continued
Silf/Swedbank’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
- objectives and methodology
History Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of
the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four
indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S.
based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been
published since November 1994
Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.
Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.
Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.
Composition
of PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35
Business activity (within the company) 25
Employment (within the company) 20
Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20
Other leading indicators
(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders
Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices
Planned business activity next six months
Objective Quick economic indicator
Simple statistics
Statistics with relatively short publication intervals
Constant contact with a well-informed professional group
Calculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for
the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by
0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as
described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’
Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly
changes in activity in the service sector.
“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis –
has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral
growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at
50 indicates a target value.
We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI –
Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization
for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for
any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background
material as well.
Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing
Managers’ Index – Services.
4 (4)