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Swedbank’s fourth quarter 2010 results
8 February 2011
Michael Wolf, CEO
Erkki Raasuke, CFO
Göran Bronner, CRO
Favourable profit trend
           p
• Net profit of SEK 7.4bn for 2010

• Core Tier 1 ratio of 13.94 per cent

• Proposed dividend: SEK 2 10 per A-share
                         2.10     A-share,
  SEK 4.80 per preference share

                       Net profit performance




    Q4 09      Q1 10           Q2 10            Q3 10   Q4 10

                                                                2
Priorities 2010

Summing up the year
      g p      y
• Customer satisfaction

• Lower risk level

• Earnings

• Liquidity and capitalisation




                                 3
Priorities 2010 – Customer satisfaction

Making progress but still more to do…
     gp g
• New service concepts in Retail yields result

• Sector focus in LC&I

• Baltic Banking implementing same customer approach as
  Retail in the branch network

• Enhanced capital markets offering to meet increased demands
             p                    g




                                                                4
Priorities 2010 – Lower risk level

Significantly reduced risk
  g         y
Credit impairments, SEKm                                                        • Continued reduced CEE lending
7 500

                                                                                • Estonia joined the EMU
6 500
                                                                                  1 Jan 2011
5 500
                                                                                • Decreased RWA
4 500
                                                                                • Reduced need for senior funding
                                                                                                                g
3 500


2 500


1 500


 500


-500
        Q4 08


                Q1 09


                        Q2 09


                                Q3 09


                                        Q4 09


                                                Q1 10


                                                        Q2 10


                                                                Q3 10


                                                                        Q4 10
           0


                   0


                           0


                                   0


                                           0


                                                   1


                                                           1


                                                                   1


                                                                           1




                                                                                                                    5
Priorities 2010 – Earnings

Pre-provision earnings starting to improve
    p               g         g      p
Net interest income, SEKm                                                       • Net profit increased by
7 000
                                                                                  SEK 18bn due to lower
                                                                                  credit impairments
6 000

                                                                                • NII troughed in Q2 positive trend
                                                                                                  Q2,
5 000

                                                                                • Expenses adopted to lower
4 000
                                                                                  business volumes
3 000



2 000



1 000



    0                                                                            * In Q4 NII in Baltic Banking was positively affected by about
        Q4 08
            8


                Q1 09
                    9


                        Q2 09
                            9


                                Q3 09
                                    9


                                        Q4 09
                                            9


                                                Q1 10
                                                    0


                                                        Q2 10
                                                            0


                                                                Q3 10
                                                                    0


                                                                        Q4 10
                                                                            0




                                                                                   SEK 200m attributable to the reclassification of penalty f
                                                                                        200       ib bl        h     l   ifi i     f     l fees
                                                                                   and late interest, previously recognised as other income.

                                                                                                                                                  6
Priorities 2010 – Liquidity and capitalisation

Strengthened funding position
     g             gp
SEKbn
                                                           • Average maturity of capital
500
                                      Covered bonds          market f di extended
                                                                 k t funding t d d
                                      Central bank and
                                      guaranteed funding
                                                             to 27 months

400                                                        • L f the state guarantee
                                                             Left h
                                                             programme in April
300                                                        • State guaranteed funding and
                                                             central bank repos reduced to
200
                                                             SEK 156bn (359)


100




 0
 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10

                                                                                             7
New capitalisation target and dividend policy
      p               g                p    y
• Core Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 13 per cent until 2013

• Long-term core Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 10 per cent

• AGM to decide on buy-back programme to manage capitalisation



• New dividend policy from 2011
   – 50 per cent pay-out ratio
                 pay out




                                                                 8
Net interest income

   Growing NII
         g
   •      Increasing interest rates in SEK
   •      Deposit margins improving
   •      Restated Baltic Banking late payment fees
                                         Retail    LC&I    Baltic   Russia,   Treasury,
                                                          Banking   Ukraine     Other
         4 702                                                                            4 527
                                                                      13                           159
                                                            249
                                                   91
                 4 023                       253                                 -59
                         3 799   3 980
                                                                                                  1 168


                                                                                                   733




                                                                                                  2 752
(SEKm)




                                                                                                  -285
                                                                                                   285
         Q4 09   Q1 10   Q2 10   Q3 10                                                    Q4 10

                                                                                                     9
Net commission income

   Strong commission income
        g
   •     Strong syndicated lending fees

   •     Low b k
         L   brokerage f
                       fees i Q3
                            in

   •     Corporate finance picking up
                                                      Retail   LC&I    Baltic   Russia,   Asset mgmt,
                                                                      Banking   Ukraine    Other        2 538
         2 361                        2 395   2 310
                      2 282                                                                  23
                                                                94      -3        1                              428
                                                       113
                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                 383


                                                                                                                 575




                                                                                                                1 132
(SEKm)




         Q4 09        Q1 10           Q2 10   Q3 10                                                     Q4 10
    (Excluding non-recurring items)
                                                                                                                        10
Net gains/losses on financial items, fair value

Lower gains with higher quality
      g            g    q     y
•        Strong end of the year from LC&I

•        Cancellation of deposit i R
         C    ll ti    fd     it in Russia
                                        i

•        Treasury valuation effects turned to negative

                                                                   Baltic   Russia,   Treasury,
                                                           LC&I   Banking   Ukraine     Other
                                                  Retail

                                   809                              29
                                                           180
                    647                   574      38                         -71                 315
                                                                                                           77


         223                                                                                              439
  EKm)




                                                                                        -435
(SE




                                                                                                            74
                                                                                                           -96
                                                                                                          -179

         Q4 09    Q1 10           Q2 10   Q3 10                                                   Q4 10
(Excluding non-recurring items)
                                                                                                                 11
Expenses

  Expenses seasonally higher
    p               y g
  •       Accelerated IT development

  •       Y/Y expenses fl t
                       flat

  •       FR&R and Ektornet 2010 expenses SEK 714m


                 0.57    0.57    0.55                                                      0.58
         0.54
                                                  LC&I    Baltic
                                                          B lti    Russia,
                                                                   Russia    Asset mgmt,
                                                                                   mgmt
                                         Retail
                                                         Banking   Ukraine    Other
         4 300   4 391   4 423                    152       73        9                    4 590
                                 4 238    123
                                                                               -5                   582
                                                                                                    211
                                                                                                    697

                                                                                                    877
(SEKm)




                                                                                                   2 223



         Q4 09   Q1 10   Q2 10   Q3 10                                                     Q4 10

                                                                                                       12
Liquidity & Capital management
SEK 265bn term funding issued in 2010
•   Full year 2011 maturities of nominal      Issued & matured full year 2010
                                              (nominal SEKbn)
    SEK 180bn
                                              60
     – Of which SEK 80bn in guaranteed        40
       funding
                                              20
     – Of which SEK 86bn in covered bonds      0

                                              -20
•   Average maturity of wholesale funding,
                                              -40
    including short-term funding, 27 months
                                              -60
    (38 months for covered bonds)
                                              -80
                                                    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec



                                              Maturity p
                                                     y profile full year 2011
                                                                    y
                                              (nominal SEKbn)
                                               0

                                              -20

                                              -40

                                              -60

                                              -80
                                                    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun   Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec



                                                                                                        13
Fourth quarter 2010 results

Income statement
SEKm                                  Q4 10    Q3 10   QoQ %   Q4 09
Income                                7 958    7 647     4%    7 982
Expenses                              4 590    4 238     8%    4 300

Profit before impairments             3 368    3 409     -1%   3 682
Impairment of intangible assets                   23

Impairment of tangible assets           406       30             352

Credit impairments                     - 483     120           5 003

Operating profit                      3 445    3 236     6%    -1 673

Tax expense                             693      638     9%      115

Profit attributable to shareholders   2 750    2 591     6%    -1 804


Return on equity, %                    11.7     11.3             -8.3
Cost income
Cost-income ratio                      0.58
                                       0 58     0.55
                                                0 55            0.54
                                                                0 54
Loan-deposit ratio, %                   222      233             240
Core Tier 1 capital ratio, %*         13.94    13.39           11.97
Risk-weighted assets *                541.3
                                      541 3    559.7
                                               559 7           603.4
                                                               603 4

* Basel 2
                                                                        14
Asset quality

Continued improvements
            p
• All indicators in the right direction
    –   Impaired loans
    –   60 days overdue
                             Declining in all countries
    –   Restructured loans
    –   Watch list

• RWA d
      decreased b SEK 18 4b i Q4
              d by    18.4bn in
    – Positive rating migration
    – C ti
      Continued d l
                d de-leveraging i B lti countries
                             i in Baltic    ti

• Recoveries in CEE portfolio

• Further tightened lending criteria in Swedish mortgage market


                                                                  15
Asset quality

Credit impairments of SEK -483m
         p
SEKm
6 000                                                                • Net recoveries in Baltic Banking
          5 003                                                        and Russia & Ukraine
5 000
                                                                     • Minor credit impairments in
4 000                                                                  Retail and LC&I

3 000                                                                • Write-down of tangible assets,
                     2 210                                             mainly in Ukraine
2 000

                                  963
1 000
                                             120

    0


-1 000                                                  -483
          Q4 09      Q1 10       Q2 10      Q3 10      Q4 10
         Retail   LC&I   Baltic Banking   Russia & Ukraine   Other


                                                                                                          16
Asset quality

Provisions – work-out portfolios slowly declining
                      p               y         g



SEKm
30 000
                                 65.9%
                                 65 9%               63.5%
                                                     63 5%                                               Provision ratios, %   Q4 10
          64.8%
                                                                         63.9%
25 000                                               4 104                                               Retail                  99
                                 4 684
           5 135                                                          3 606            62.7%
                                                                                                         LC&I                   106
20 000                                                                                      3 297        Baltic Banking
                                                                                                         B lti B ki              58
                                                                                                         Russia                  57
15 000
                                                                                                         Ukraine                 65
                                 21 889              23 028                                              Group                   63
10 000     20 882                                                        21 068
                                                                                           18 494
                                                                                                5 919
                                                                               4 603
 5 000                               3 311                3 953
                  2 504

    0
         Q4 2009                 Q1 10               Q2 10               Q3 10             Q4 10
         Individual provisions     Portfolio provisions       Write-offs, gross
                                                              Write offs gross, cum    Provision ratio



                                                                                                                                   17
10%
                                                                                                                                                                   12%
                                                                                                                                                                                14%
                                                                                                                                                                                         16%




                                                                                                                             0%
                                                                                                                                  2%
                                                                                                                                       4%
                                                                                                                                            6%
                                                                                                                                                 8%
                                                                                                                    UBS
                                                                                                                      S
                                                                                                             Swedbank
                                                                                                                    k




                                                                                                                                                                                  13.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  p
                                                                                                                    SEB
                                                                                                                      B




                                                                                                                                                                         12.2
                                                                                                                  Dexia
                                                                                                                      a
                                                                                                                    SHB
                                                                                                                      B


                                                                                                                                                                         12.1
                                                                                                       N. B. Of Greece
                                                                                                                     e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       p



                                                                                                              DnB NOR
                                                                                                                    R
                                                                                                             Stan Chart
                                                                                                                      t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Capital management




                                                                                                                  HSBC
                                                                                                                     C
                                                                                                                    RBS
                                                                                                                      S
                                                                                                                Nordea
                                                                                                                                                            10.3




                                                                                                                      s
                                                                                                               Barclays
                                                                                                                                                                                               Core Tier 1 ratios (Basel 2) European banks*




                                                                                                          Danske Bank
                                                                                                                    k
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               p




                                                                                                         Credit Suisse
                                                                                                                     e
                                                                                                        EFG EuroBank
                                                                                                                   k
                                                                                                        Bank of Ireland
                                                                                                                      d
                                                                                                                    BNP
                                                                                                                      P
                                                                                                     B. Popular Espana
                                                                                                        P            a
                                                                                                                    BNP
                                                                                                                      P
                                                                                                                 Lloyds
                                                                                                                      s
                                                                                                               Soc Gen
                                                                                                                     n
                                                                                                             Santander
                                                                                                                     r
                                                                                                         Banco Pastor
                                                                                                                    r
                                                                                                               Banesto
                                                                                                                     o
                                                                                                                  BBVA
                                                                                                                     A
                                                                                                             UniCredito
                                                                                                                      o
                                                                                                                  Intesa
                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                    MPS
                                                                                                                      S
                                                                                                       Banco Sabadell
     *Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Q4 10 estimates (Swedbank, SEB and Nordea actual Q4 figures)




                                                                                                                  Marf in
                                                                                                                        n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              European peer comparison core Tier 1 ratios




                                                                                                          Piraeus Bank
                                                                                                                     k
                                                                                                            UBI Banca
                                                                                                                    a
                                                                                                            Erste Bank
                                                                                                                     k
                                                           B. Po polare di Milano
                                                                                o
                                                                                                                    BCP
                                                                                                                      P
                                                                                                           Aareal Bank
                                                                                                                     k
                                                                                                             Bank Inter
                                                                                                                      r
                                                                                                          Raif f eisen Int
                                                                                                                         t
18
Capital management

Assets – significantly reduced risk level since Q4 08
           g         y
(SEKbn)
1 400                                                •   Estonia joined the EMU, 1 Jan 2011

1 200
                                                     •   RWA reduced from SEK 697bn to
                  -108           CEE lending
                                                         SEK 541bn
                                 Estonia
1 000
                                                     •   Reduced need for unsecured
                                 Other corporate
                                 lending, Sweden &       funding of about SEK 150bn
                                 other Nordic
 800
                  -57
                                 Other private,
                                 Sweden

 600
                  +67

 400                             Swedish
                                 mortgage loans


 200




   0
          Q4 08          Q4 10

                                                                                          19
Capital management

Liabilities – significantly reduced risk level since Q4 08
                g         y
(SEKbn)
1 400
                                                         • Increased use of stable and
                                                           efficient funding sources
1 200                            Central banks +
                                 Government guaranteed
                  -182
                                 Senior unsecured        • Issued SEK 365bn since
1 000             -46                                      second rights issue
                                 Covered bonds
 800
                  +140
                                                         • Maturity extended significantly

 600
                                                         • Liquidity buffer established
                  +26
                                                         • Limited, if any, need for
 400
                                 Deposits
                                                           unsecured funding
 200

                                 Supplementary capital
                   +11           Co e e capital
                                 Core Tier 1 cap ta
   0
          Q4 08          Q4 10

                                                                                          20
Capital management – Core Tier 1

Capitalisation – solid to meet risk profile and uncertainties
  p                                 p
      13.9%
               Excess capital (SEK 4.9bn)
                                                    • CT1-ratio to stay above
                                            13.0%
                                                      13 per cent until 2013
                      Extra buffer
                   due to prevailing                   – Perception
                    circumstances
                     (SEK 16.2bn)                      – Unclear regulatory framework
      10.0%
                                                       – Uncertain macro economic
                     Risk appetite                       environment
                     (ICAAP buffer,
                      SEK 16 2bn)
                          16.2bn)

                                             7.0%   • Long-term CT1-ratio of at least
                                                      10 per cent
                                                       – CT1-ratio to stay above
                                                         regulatory minimum in ICAAP
                Regulatory requirement
                     (SEK 37 9bn)
                          37.9bn)
                                                         (
                                                         (stressed) scenario
                                                                  )




                                                                                        21
Capital management

Excess capital – no need to increase capital further
         p                             p
• Large capital buffer in relation to current risk level
• I
  Increasing profit generation
         i      fit       ti
• RWA growth expected to be moderate
• Continued focus on capital efficiency




                                                           22
Capital management

Proposal
   p
• AGM to decide on buy-back programme to manage capitalisation
   – U t 10 per cent of outstanding shares (incl. acquisition of own
     Up to           t f t t di        h     (i l     i iti    f
     shares through the securities operations)
   – Gradual buy-backs during the permit period
             buy backs
   – Full flexibility to chose between A and preference shares




                                                                       23
Priorities 2011
• Customer focus

• Growth in selective segments

• Quality and effectiveness

• Robust and low-risk balance sheet




                                      24
Welcome to Swedbank’s Capital markets day
                        p               y
23 February 2011




Registration at www.swedbank.com/ir
Appendix




           26
Loan to deposit ratio improved
          p             p
SEKbn                   2010     2009     Δ
Retail - loans           873      854    19
Retail - deposits        347      318    29

LC&I - loans             130      150    -20
LC&I - deposits           74       69      5

BB - loans               130      170    -40
BB - deposits             93      103    -10

R&U - loans               13       18     -5
R&U - deposits             3        7     -4

Group - loans           1 146    1 192   -46
Group - deposits          517      497    20




                                               27
Business area performance
              p

Profit before impairments
                p           Q4 10   Q3 09     Δ    8Q development
                                                            p

Retail                      2 126   1 881   245

Large corporates &
                             895     664    231
Institutions

Baltic Banking               935     937      -2

Asset management             188     179      9

Russia & Ukraine             -116
                              116     -55
                                       55    -61
                                              61

Other                        -660    -197   -463

Group                       3 368   3 409    -41
                                                   Q1 09       Q4 10




                                                                       28
Impaired loans decreasing
  p                     g
• Excl. FX effect down SEK 3bn in Q4

• Underlying decreases in all business areas in Q4

SEKm
45 000                                       42 719
                           40 132   40 328
40 000                                                -4 088
                  35 770   4 362     196     2 391                               Impaired loans as %
                                                      38 631   -3 853
                                                                3
35 000                                                                           of gross lending
                  6 113                                        34 778   7 957
         29 657                                                                  Ukraine 62%
30 000

                                                                        1 939    Russia 22%
25 000
                                                                        6 529
                                                                                 Lithuania 17%
20 000
                                                                        11 259
15 000   29 657
                                                                                 Latvia 26%

10 000

                                                                        4 722    Estonia 7.7%
 5 000
                                                                                 LC&I 0.25%
                                                                         770     Retail 0.18%
                                                                        1 602
    0
         Q2 09    Q3 09    Q4 09    Q1 10    Q2 10    Q3 10    Q4 10    Q4 10


                                                                                                       29
-50
                                              0
                                                       100
                                                             150
                                                                   200
                                                                    00
                                                                         250




                          -150
                                 -100
                                                  50
                                                                               EURm
                  Q
                  Q4 09
                  Q
                  Q1 10
                                                                                            p


                  Q
                  Q2 10




     Estonia
                  Q
                  Q3 10
                  Q
                  Q4 10




                  Q
                  Q4 09
                  Q
                  Q1 10
                  Q
                  Q2 10




     Latvia
                  Q
                  Q3 10
                                                                                                          y




                  Q
                  Q4 10
                                                                                                               p




                  Q
                  Q4 09
                  Q
                  Q1 10
                  Q
                  Q2 10
                  Q
                  Q3 10
      Lithuania

                  Q
                  Q4 10


                  Q
                  Q4 09
                  Q
                  Q1 10
                  Q
                  Q2 10
                                                                                      Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q




                  Q
                  Q3 10
       Ukraine




                  Q
                  Q4 10




                  Q
                  Q4 09
                  Q
                  Q1 10
                  Q
                  Q2 10
                  Q
                  Q3 10
      Russia




                  Q
                  Q4 10
30
Asset qualtiy

Repossessed assets
  p
SEKm
4 000


3 500


3 000


2 500


2 000


1 500


1 000


 500


   0
        Q1 09         Q2 09          Q3 09         Q4 09         Q1 10          Q2 10           Q3 10        Q4 10

          Real Estate Residential   Real Estate Commercial   Passenger & Commercial Transport     Shares   Other




                                                                                                                     31
Real estate prices
            p
                                            Tallinn                                                                                                                            Riga*
         1 800                                                                                 1 800                                  2 000                                                                             2 000
                         1616
         1 500                                                                                 1 500




                                                                                                       No of transactions
                                                                                                                                      1 500                                                                             1 500
         1 200                                                                                 1 200




                                                                                                                             EUR/m2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                No.o transactions
                                                                                         813
EUR/m2




          900                                                                                  900                                    1 000                                                                             1 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                617
          600                                                     669                          600
                                                                                                                                       500                                                                              500




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of
                                                                                                       N
          300                                                                                  300

             0                                                                                0                                           0                                                                             0
              Q4 06      Q2 07    Q4 07   Q2 08   Q4 08     Q2 09       Q4 09    Q2 10    Q4 10                                               Q4 02   Q4 03   Q4 04    Q4 05    Q4 06   Q4 07   Q4 08   Q4 09   Q4 10

                                           No of deals           Average price
                                                                                                                                              Source: S of db k
                                                                                                                                              S     No. transactions (Riga)
                                                                                                                                                    NoSwedbank                              Average price EUR/m2
                                                                                                                                                                                                    price,
Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board

                                           Vilnius
         1 800                                           1 731                                 1 800

         1 500                                                                                 1 500




                                                                                                        No of transactions
         1 200                                                                           1 070 1 200
EUR/m2




          900                                                                                  900

          600                                                                                  600
                                                                                                         o


          300                                                                                  300

            0                                                                                  0
                 Q1.05    Q4.05   Q3.06   Q2.07    Q1.08     Q4.08       Q3.09    Q2.10

                                           No f deals
                                           N of d l              Average price
                                                                 A         i

     Source: Swedbank, State Enterprise Centre of Registers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                32
Liquidity & funding

Long-term funding
   g            g
• Continued focus on covered bonds with full-year issuance of SEK 238bn
• SEK 23bn in senior unsecured issuance
• 4 EUR-denominated covered bond benchmark deals, each in the size of EUR 1bn
• 1 EUR-denominated senior unsecured benchmark deal of EUR 1bn
• Total term funding maturities in 2011 of SEK 180bn
Long-term funding maturity profile, SEKbn
                                              Q1 2012
                                                        Q2 2012
                                                                  Q3 2012
                                                                            Q4 2012
                                                                                      Q1 2013
                                                                                                Q2 2013
                                                                                                          Q3 2013
                                                                                                                    Q4 2013
                                                                                                                              Q1 2014
                                                                                                                                        Q2 2014
                                                                                                                                                  Q3 2014
                                                                                                                                                            Q4 2014
                                                                                                                                                                      Q1 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                Q2 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                          Q3 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q4 2015
      Q1 2011
                Q2 2011
                          Q3 2011
                                    Q4 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                              2016-
 0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
 80
-90                         Other                       NON-SEK Covered Bonds                                                             SEK Covered Bonds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      33
Liquidity & funding

Remaining government guaranteed debt
        gg           g
• Exited the programme on April 30, 2010
• No issuance under the programme since summer 2009
• SEK 75bn of government guaranteed debt matured during 2010
• Maturities of nominal SEK 80bn in 2011

Maturity p
       y profile, SEKbn
                ,
  0                                        USD
                                           SEK
                                           EUR
 -20
                                           CHF
                                           HKD
 -40                                       JPY


 -60


 -80


-100
 100
         2011         2012   2013   2014


                                                               34

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Swedbanks fourth quarter results 2010 ceo presentation

  • 1. Swedbank’s fourth quarter 2010 results 8 February 2011 Michael Wolf, CEO Erkki Raasuke, CFO Göran Bronner, CRO
  • 2. Favourable profit trend p • Net profit of SEK 7.4bn for 2010 • Core Tier 1 ratio of 13.94 per cent • Proposed dividend: SEK 2 10 per A-share 2.10 A-share, SEK 4.80 per preference share Net profit performance Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 2
  • 3. Priorities 2010 Summing up the year g p y • Customer satisfaction • Lower risk level • Earnings • Liquidity and capitalisation 3
  • 4. Priorities 2010 – Customer satisfaction Making progress but still more to do… gp g • New service concepts in Retail yields result • Sector focus in LC&I • Baltic Banking implementing same customer approach as Retail in the branch network • Enhanced capital markets offering to meet increased demands p g 4
  • 5. Priorities 2010 – Lower risk level Significantly reduced risk g y Credit impairments, SEKm • Continued reduced CEE lending 7 500 • Estonia joined the EMU 6 500 1 Jan 2011 5 500 • Decreased RWA 4 500 • Reduced need for senior funding g 3 500 2 500 1 500 500 -500 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 5
  • 6. Priorities 2010 – Earnings Pre-provision earnings starting to improve p g g p Net interest income, SEKm • Net profit increased by 7 000 SEK 18bn due to lower credit impairments 6 000 • NII troughed in Q2 positive trend Q2, 5 000 • Expenses adopted to lower 4 000 business volumes 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 * In Q4 NII in Baltic Banking was positively affected by about Q4 08 8 Q1 09 9 Q2 09 9 Q3 09 9 Q4 09 9 Q1 10 0 Q2 10 0 Q3 10 0 Q4 10 0 SEK 200m attributable to the reclassification of penalty f 200 ib bl h l ifi i f l fees and late interest, previously recognised as other income. 6
  • 7. Priorities 2010 – Liquidity and capitalisation Strengthened funding position g gp SEKbn • Average maturity of capital 500 Covered bonds market f di extended k t funding t d d Central bank and guaranteed funding to 27 months 400 • L f the state guarantee Left h programme in April 300 • State guaranteed funding and central bank repos reduced to 200 SEK 156bn (359) 100 0 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 7
  • 8. New capitalisation target and dividend policy p g p y • Core Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 13 per cent until 2013 • Long-term core Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 10 per cent • AGM to decide on buy-back programme to manage capitalisation • New dividend policy from 2011 – 50 per cent pay-out ratio pay out 8
  • 9. Net interest income Growing NII g • Increasing interest rates in SEK • Deposit margins improving • Restated Baltic Banking late payment fees Retail LC&I Baltic Russia, Treasury, Banking Ukraine Other 4 702 4 527 13 159 249 91 4 023 253 -59 3 799 3 980 1 168 733 2 752 (SEKm) -285 285 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 9
  • 10. Net commission income Strong commission income g • Strong syndicated lending fees • Low b k L brokerage f fees i Q3 in • Corporate finance picking up Retail LC&I Baltic Russia, Asset mgmt, Banking Ukraine Other 2 538 2 361 2 395 2 310 2 282 23 94 -3 1 428 113 20 383 575 1 132 (SEKm) Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 (Excluding non-recurring items) 10
  • 11. Net gains/losses on financial items, fair value Lower gains with higher quality g g q y • Strong end of the year from LC&I • Cancellation of deposit i R C ll ti fd it in Russia i • Treasury valuation effects turned to negative Baltic Russia, Treasury, LC&I Banking Ukraine Other Retail 809 29 180 647 574 38 -71 315 77 223 439 EKm) -435 (SE 74 -96 -179 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 (Excluding non-recurring items) 11
  • 12. Expenses Expenses seasonally higher p y g • Accelerated IT development • Y/Y expenses fl t flat • FR&R and Ektornet 2010 expenses SEK 714m 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.58 0.54 LC&I Baltic B lti Russia, Russia Asset mgmt, mgmt Retail Banking Ukraine Other 4 300 4 391 4 423 152 73 9 4 590 4 238 123 -5 582 211 697 877 (SEKm) 2 223 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 12
  • 13. Liquidity & Capital management SEK 265bn term funding issued in 2010 • Full year 2011 maturities of nominal Issued & matured full year 2010 (nominal SEKbn) SEK 180bn 60 – Of which SEK 80bn in guaranteed 40 funding 20 – Of which SEK 86bn in covered bonds 0 -20 • Average maturity of wholesale funding, -40 including short-term funding, 27 months -60 (38 months for covered bonds) -80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Maturity p y profile full year 2011 y (nominal SEKbn) 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13
  • 14. Fourth quarter 2010 results Income statement SEKm Q4 10 Q3 10 QoQ % Q4 09 Income 7 958 7 647 4% 7 982 Expenses 4 590 4 238 8% 4 300 Profit before impairments 3 368 3 409 -1% 3 682 Impairment of intangible assets 23 Impairment of tangible assets 406 30 352 Credit impairments - 483 120 5 003 Operating profit 3 445 3 236 6% -1 673 Tax expense 693 638 9% 115 Profit attributable to shareholders 2 750 2 591 6% -1 804 Return on equity, % 11.7 11.3 -8.3 Cost income Cost-income ratio 0.58 0 58 0.55 0 55 0.54 0 54 Loan-deposit ratio, % 222 233 240 Core Tier 1 capital ratio, %* 13.94 13.39 11.97 Risk-weighted assets * 541.3 541 3 559.7 559 7 603.4 603 4 * Basel 2 14
  • 15. Asset quality Continued improvements p • All indicators in the right direction – Impaired loans – 60 days overdue Declining in all countries – Restructured loans – Watch list • RWA d decreased b SEK 18 4b i Q4 d by 18.4bn in – Positive rating migration – C ti Continued d l d de-leveraging i B lti countries i in Baltic ti • Recoveries in CEE portfolio • Further tightened lending criteria in Swedish mortgage market 15
  • 16. Asset quality Credit impairments of SEK -483m p SEKm 6 000 • Net recoveries in Baltic Banking 5 003 and Russia & Ukraine 5 000 • Minor credit impairments in 4 000 Retail and LC&I 3 000 • Write-down of tangible assets, 2 210 mainly in Ukraine 2 000 963 1 000 120 0 -1 000 -483 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Retail LC&I Baltic Banking Russia & Ukraine Other 16
  • 17. Asset quality Provisions – work-out portfolios slowly declining p y g SEKm 30 000 65.9% 65 9% 63.5% 63 5% Provision ratios, % Q4 10 64.8% 63.9% 25 000 4 104 Retail 99 4 684 5 135 3 606 62.7% LC&I 106 20 000 3 297 Baltic Banking B lti B ki 58 Russia 57 15 000 Ukraine 65 21 889 23 028 Group 63 10 000 20 882 21 068 18 494 5 919 4 603 5 000 3 311 3 953 2 504 0 Q4 2009 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Individual provisions Portfolio provisions Write-offs, gross Write offs gross, cum Provision ratio 17
  • 18. 10% 12% 14% 16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% UBS S Swedbank k 13.9 p SEB B 12.2 Dexia a SHB B 12.1 N. B. Of Greece e p DnB NOR R Stan Chart t Capital management HSBC C RBS S Nordea 10.3 s Barclays Core Tier 1 ratios (Basel 2) European banks* Danske Bank k p Credit Suisse e EFG EuroBank k Bank of Ireland d BNP P B. Popular Espana P a BNP P Lloyds s Soc Gen n Santander r Banco Pastor r Banesto o BBVA A UniCredito o Intesa a MPS S Banco Sabadell *Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Q4 10 estimates (Swedbank, SEB and Nordea actual Q4 figures) Marf in n European peer comparison core Tier 1 ratios Piraeus Bank k UBI Banca a Erste Bank k B. Po polare di Milano o BCP P Aareal Bank k Bank Inter r Raif f eisen Int t 18
  • 19. Capital management Assets – significantly reduced risk level since Q4 08 g y (SEKbn) 1 400 • Estonia joined the EMU, 1 Jan 2011 1 200 • RWA reduced from SEK 697bn to -108 CEE lending SEK 541bn Estonia 1 000 • Reduced need for unsecured Other corporate lending, Sweden & funding of about SEK 150bn other Nordic 800 -57 Other private, Sweden 600 +67 400 Swedish mortgage loans 200 0 Q4 08 Q4 10 19
  • 20. Capital management Liabilities – significantly reduced risk level since Q4 08 g y (SEKbn) 1 400 • Increased use of stable and efficient funding sources 1 200 Central banks + Government guaranteed -182 Senior unsecured • Issued SEK 365bn since 1 000 -46 second rights issue Covered bonds 800 +140 • Maturity extended significantly 600 • Liquidity buffer established +26 • Limited, if any, need for 400 Deposits unsecured funding 200 Supplementary capital +11 Co e e capital Core Tier 1 cap ta 0 Q4 08 Q4 10 20
  • 21. Capital management – Core Tier 1 Capitalisation – solid to meet risk profile and uncertainties p p 13.9% Excess capital (SEK 4.9bn) • CT1-ratio to stay above 13.0% 13 per cent until 2013 Extra buffer due to prevailing – Perception circumstances (SEK 16.2bn) – Unclear regulatory framework 10.0% – Uncertain macro economic Risk appetite environment (ICAAP buffer, SEK 16 2bn) 16.2bn) 7.0% • Long-term CT1-ratio of at least 10 per cent – CT1-ratio to stay above regulatory minimum in ICAAP Regulatory requirement (SEK 37 9bn) 37.9bn) ( (stressed) scenario ) 21
  • 22. Capital management Excess capital – no need to increase capital further p p • Large capital buffer in relation to current risk level • I Increasing profit generation i fit ti • RWA growth expected to be moderate • Continued focus on capital efficiency 22
  • 23. Capital management Proposal p • AGM to decide on buy-back programme to manage capitalisation – U t 10 per cent of outstanding shares (incl. acquisition of own Up to t f t t di h (i l i iti f shares through the securities operations) – Gradual buy-backs during the permit period buy backs – Full flexibility to chose between A and preference shares 23
  • 24. Priorities 2011 • Customer focus • Growth in selective segments • Quality and effectiveness • Robust and low-risk balance sheet 24
  • 25. Welcome to Swedbank’s Capital markets day p y 23 February 2011 Registration at www.swedbank.com/ir
  • 26. Appendix 26
  • 27. Loan to deposit ratio improved p p SEKbn 2010 2009 Δ Retail - loans 873 854 19 Retail - deposits 347 318 29 LC&I - loans 130 150 -20 LC&I - deposits 74 69 5 BB - loans 130 170 -40 BB - deposits 93 103 -10 R&U - loans 13 18 -5 R&U - deposits 3 7 -4 Group - loans 1 146 1 192 -46 Group - deposits 517 497 20 27
  • 28. Business area performance p Profit before impairments p Q4 10 Q3 09 Δ 8Q development p Retail 2 126 1 881 245 Large corporates & 895 664 231 Institutions Baltic Banking 935 937 -2 Asset management 188 179 9 Russia & Ukraine -116 116 -55 55 -61 61 Other -660 -197 -463 Group 3 368 3 409 -41 Q1 09 Q4 10 28
  • 29. Impaired loans decreasing p g • Excl. FX effect down SEK 3bn in Q4 • Underlying decreases in all business areas in Q4 SEKm 45 000 42 719 40 132 40 328 40 000 -4 088 35 770 4 362 196 2 391 Impaired loans as % 38 631 -3 853 3 35 000 of gross lending 6 113 34 778 7 957 29 657 Ukraine 62% 30 000 1 939 Russia 22% 25 000 6 529 Lithuania 17% 20 000 11 259 15 000 29 657 Latvia 26% 10 000 4 722 Estonia 7.7% 5 000 LC&I 0.25% 770 Retail 0.18% 1 602 0 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q4 10 29
  • 30. -50 0 100 150 200 00 250 -150 -100 50 EURm Q Q4 09 Q Q1 10 p Q Q2 10 Estonia Q Q3 10 Q Q4 10 Q Q4 09 Q Q1 10 Q Q2 10 Latvia Q Q3 10 y Q Q4 10 p Q Q4 09 Q Q1 10 Q Q2 10 Q Q3 10 Lithuania Q Q4 10 Q Q4 09 Q Q1 10 Q Q2 10 Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q Q Q3 10 Ukraine Q Q4 10 Q Q4 09 Q Q1 10 Q Q2 10 Q Q3 10 Russia Q Q4 10 30
  • 31. Asset qualtiy Repossessed assets p SEKm 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Real Estate Residential Real Estate Commercial Passenger & Commercial Transport Shares Other 31
  • 32. Real estate prices p Tallinn Riga* 1 800 1 800 2 000 2 000 1616 1 500 1 500 No of transactions 1 500 1 500 1 200 1 200 EUR/m2 No.o transactions 813 EUR/m2 900 900 1 000 1 000 617 600 669 600 500 500 of N 300 300 0 0 0 0 Q4 06 Q2 07 Q4 07 Q2 08 Q4 08 Q2 09 Q4 09 Q2 10 Q4 10 Q4 02 Q4 03 Q4 04 Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 No of deals Average price Source: S of db k S No. transactions (Riga) NoSwedbank Average price EUR/m2 price, Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board Vilnius 1 800 1 731 1 800 1 500 1 500 No of transactions 1 200 1 070 1 200 EUR/m2 900 900 600 600 o 300 300 0 0 Q1.05 Q4.05 Q3.06 Q2.07 Q1.08 Q4.08 Q3.09 Q2.10 No f deals N of d l Average price A i Source: Swedbank, State Enterprise Centre of Registers 32
  • 33. Liquidity & funding Long-term funding g g • Continued focus on covered bonds with full-year issuance of SEK 238bn • SEK 23bn in senior unsecured issuance • 4 EUR-denominated covered bond benchmark deals, each in the size of EUR 1bn • 1 EUR-denominated senior unsecured benchmark deal of EUR 1bn • Total term funding maturities in 2011 of SEK 180bn Long-term funding maturity profile, SEKbn Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 2016- 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 80 -90 Other NON-SEK Covered Bonds SEK Covered Bonds 33
  • 34. Liquidity & funding Remaining government guaranteed debt gg g • Exited the programme on April 30, 2010 • No issuance under the programme since summer 2009 • SEK 75bn of government guaranteed debt matured during 2010 • Maturities of nominal SEK 80bn in 2011 Maturity p y profile, SEKbn , 0 USD SEK EUR -20 CHF HKD -40 JPY -60 -80 -100 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 34