Swedbank reported its fourth quarter 2010 results. Net profit for 2010 was SEK 7.4 billion, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.94%. Priorities in 2010 included customer satisfaction, lower risk levels, earnings growth, and strengthened liquidity and capitalization. Credit impairments decreased to SEK -483 million in Q4 2010. Risk-weighted assets were reduced by SEK 18.4 billion during the quarter through positive rating migration and de-leveraging in Baltic countries. Swedbank also strengthened its funding position by extending average debt maturity to 27 months and reducing reliance on central bank and government guaranteed funding.
Swedbanks fourth quarter results 2010 ceo presentation
1. Swedbank’s fourth quarter 2010 results
8 February 2011
Michael Wolf, CEO
Erkki Raasuke, CFO
Göran Bronner, CRO
2. Favourable profit trend
p
• Net profit of SEK 7.4bn for 2010
• Core Tier 1 ratio of 13.94 per cent
• Proposed dividend: SEK 2 10 per A-share
2.10 A-share,
SEK 4.80 per preference share
Net profit performance
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
2
3. Priorities 2010
Summing up the year
g p y
• Customer satisfaction
• Lower risk level
• Earnings
• Liquidity and capitalisation
3
4. Priorities 2010 – Customer satisfaction
Making progress but still more to do…
gp g
• New service concepts in Retail yields result
• Sector focus in LC&I
• Baltic Banking implementing same customer approach as
Retail in the branch network
• Enhanced capital markets offering to meet increased demands
p g
4
5. Priorities 2010 – Lower risk level
Significantly reduced risk
g y
Credit impairments, SEKm • Continued reduced CEE lending
7 500
• Estonia joined the EMU
6 500
1 Jan 2011
5 500
• Decreased RWA
4 500
• Reduced need for senior funding
g
3 500
2 500
1 500
500
-500
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
5
6. Priorities 2010 – Earnings
Pre-provision earnings starting to improve
p g g p
Net interest income, SEKm • Net profit increased by
7 000
SEK 18bn due to lower
credit impairments
6 000
• NII troughed in Q2 positive trend
Q2,
5 000
• Expenses adopted to lower
4 000
business volumes
3 000
2 000
1 000
0 * In Q4 NII in Baltic Banking was positively affected by about
Q4 08
8
Q1 09
9
Q2 09
9
Q3 09
9
Q4 09
9
Q1 10
0
Q2 10
0
Q3 10
0
Q4 10
0
SEK 200m attributable to the reclassification of penalty f
200 ib bl h l ifi i f l fees
and late interest, previously recognised as other income.
6
7. Priorities 2010 – Liquidity and capitalisation
Strengthened funding position
g gp
SEKbn
• Average maturity of capital
500
Covered bonds market f di extended
k t funding t d d
Central bank and
guaranteed funding
to 27 months
400 • L f the state guarantee
Left h
programme in April
300 • State guaranteed funding and
central bank repos reduced to
200
SEK 156bn (359)
100
0
Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
7
8. New capitalisation target and dividend policy
p g p y
• Core Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 13 per cent until 2013
• Long-term core Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 10 per cent
• AGM to decide on buy-back programme to manage capitalisation
• New dividend policy from 2011
– 50 per cent pay-out ratio
pay out
8
9. Net interest income
Growing NII
g
• Increasing interest rates in SEK
• Deposit margins improving
• Restated Baltic Banking late payment fees
Retail LC&I Baltic Russia, Treasury,
Banking Ukraine Other
4 702 4 527
13 159
249
91
4 023 253 -59
3 799 3 980
1 168
733
2 752
(SEKm)
-285
285
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
9
10. Net commission income
Strong commission income
g
• Strong syndicated lending fees
• Low b k
L brokerage f
fees i Q3
in
• Corporate finance picking up
Retail LC&I Baltic Russia, Asset mgmt,
Banking Ukraine Other 2 538
2 361 2 395 2 310
2 282 23
94 -3 1 428
113
20
383
575
1 132
(SEKm)
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
(Excluding non-recurring items)
10
11. Net gains/losses on financial items, fair value
Lower gains with higher quality
g g q y
• Strong end of the year from LC&I
• Cancellation of deposit i R
C ll ti fd it in Russia
i
• Treasury valuation effects turned to negative
Baltic Russia, Treasury,
LC&I Banking Ukraine Other
Retail
809 29
180
647 574 38 -71 315
77
223 439
EKm)
-435
(SE
74
-96
-179
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
(Excluding non-recurring items)
11
12. Expenses
Expenses seasonally higher
p y g
• Accelerated IT development
• Y/Y expenses fl t
flat
• FR&R and Ektornet 2010 expenses SEK 714m
0.57 0.57 0.55 0.58
0.54
LC&I Baltic
B lti Russia,
Russia Asset mgmt,
mgmt
Retail
Banking Ukraine Other
4 300 4 391 4 423 152 73 9 4 590
4 238 123
-5 582
211
697
877
(SEKm)
2 223
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
12
13. Liquidity & Capital management
SEK 265bn term funding issued in 2010
• Full year 2011 maturities of nominal Issued & matured full year 2010
(nominal SEKbn)
SEK 180bn
60
– Of which SEK 80bn in guaranteed 40
funding
20
– Of which SEK 86bn in covered bonds 0
-20
• Average maturity of wholesale funding,
-40
including short-term funding, 27 months
-60
(38 months for covered bonds)
-80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Maturity p
y profile full year 2011
y
(nominal SEKbn)
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
13
15. Asset quality
Continued improvements
p
• All indicators in the right direction
– Impaired loans
– 60 days overdue
Declining in all countries
– Restructured loans
– Watch list
• RWA d
decreased b SEK 18 4b i Q4
d by 18.4bn in
– Positive rating migration
– C ti
Continued d l
d de-leveraging i B lti countries
i in Baltic ti
• Recoveries in CEE portfolio
• Further tightened lending criteria in Swedish mortgage market
15
16. Asset quality
Credit impairments of SEK -483m
p
SEKm
6 000 • Net recoveries in Baltic Banking
5 003 and Russia & Ukraine
5 000
• Minor credit impairments in
4 000 Retail and LC&I
3 000 • Write-down of tangible assets,
2 210 mainly in Ukraine
2 000
963
1 000
120
0
-1 000 -483
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
Retail LC&I Baltic Banking Russia & Ukraine Other
16
18. 10%
12%
14%
16%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
UBS
S
Swedbank
k
13.9
p
SEB
B
12.2
Dexia
a
SHB
B
12.1
N. B. Of Greece
e
p
DnB NOR
R
Stan Chart
t
Capital management
HSBC
C
RBS
S
Nordea
10.3
s
Barclays
Core Tier 1 ratios (Basel 2) European banks*
Danske Bank
k
p
Credit Suisse
e
EFG EuroBank
k
Bank of Ireland
d
BNP
P
B. Popular Espana
P a
BNP
P
Lloyds
s
Soc Gen
n
Santander
r
Banco Pastor
r
Banesto
o
BBVA
A
UniCredito
o
Intesa
a
MPS
S
Banco Sabadell
*Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Q4 10 estimates (Swedbank, SEB and Nordea actual Q4 figures)
Marf in
n
European peer comparison core Tier 1 ratios
Piraeus Bank
k
UBI Banca
a
Erste Bank
k
B. Po polare di Milano
o
BCP
P
Aareal Bank
k
Bank Inter
r
Raif f eisen Int
t
18
19. Capital management
Assets – significantly reduced risk level since Q4 08
g y
(SEKbn)
1 400 • Estonia joined the EMU, 1 Jan 2011
1 200
• RWA reduced from SEK 697bn to
-108 CEE lending
SEK 541bn
Estonia
1 000
• Reduced need for unsecured
Other corporate
lending, Sweden & funding of about SEK 150bn
other Nordic
800
-57
Other private,
Sweden
600
+67
400 Swedish
mortgage loans
200
0
Q4 08 Q4 10
19
20. Capital management
Liabilities – significantly reduced risk level since Q4 08
g y
(SEKbn)
1 400
• Increased use of stable and
efficient funding sources
1 200 Central banks +
Government guaranteed
-182
Senior unsecured • Issued SEK 365bn since
1 000 -46 second rights issue
Covered bonds
800
+140
• Maturity extended significantly
600
• Liquidity buffer established
+26
• Limited, if any, need for
400
Deposits
unsecured funding
200
Supplementary capital
+11 Co e e capital
Core Tier 1 cap ta
0
Q4 08 Q4 10
20
21. Capital management – Core Tier 1
Capitalisation – solid to meet risk profile and uncertainties
p p
13.9%
Excess capital (SEK 4.9bn)
• CT1-ratio to stay above
13.0%
13 per cent until 2013
Extra buffer
due to prevailing – Perception
circumstances
(SEK 16.2bn) – Unclear regulatory framework
10.0%
– Uncertain macro economic
Risk appetite environment
(ICAAP buffer,
SEK 16 2bn)
16.2bn)
7.0% • Long-term CT1-ratio of at least
10 per cent
– CT1-ratio to stay above
regulatory minimum in ICAAP
Regulatory requirement
(SEK 37 9bn)
37.9bn)
(
(stressed) scenario
)
21
22. Capital management
Excess capital – no need to increase capital further
p p
• Large capital buffer in relation to current risk level
• I
Increasing profit generation
i fit ti
• RWA growth expected to be moderate
• Continued focus on capital efficiency
22
23. Capital management
Proposal
p
• AGM to decide on buy-back programme to manage capitalisation
– U t 10 per cent of outstanding shares (incl. acquisition of own
Up to t f t t di h (i l i iti f
shares through the securities operations)
– Gradual buy-backs during the permit period
buy backs
– Full flexibility to chose between A and preference shares
23
24. Priorities 2011
• Customer focus
• Growth in selective segments
• Quality and effectiveness
• Robust and low-risk balance sheet
24
25. Welcome to Swedbank’s Capital markets day
p y
23 February 2011
Registration at www.swedbank.com/ir
32. Real estate prices
p
Tallinn Riga*
1 800 1 800 2 000 2 000
1616
1 500 1 500
No of transactions
1 500 1 500
1 200 1 200
EUR/m2
No.o transactions
813
EUR/m2
900 900 1 000 1 000
617
600 669 600
500 500
of
N
300 300
0 0 0 0
Q4 06 Q2 07 Q4 07 Q2 08 Q4 08 Q2 09 Q4 09 Q2 10 Q4 10 Q4 02 Q4 03 Q4 04 Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10
No of deals Average price
Source: S of db k
S No. transactions (Riga)
NoSwedbank Average price EUR/m2
price,
Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board
Vilnius
1 800 1 731 1 800
1 500 1 500
No of transactions
1 200 1 070 1 200
EUR/m2
900 900
600 600
o
300 300
0 0
Q1.05 Q4.05 Q3.06 Q2.07 Q1.08 Q4.08 Q3.09 Q2.10
No f deals
N of d l Average price
A i
Source: Swedbank, State Enterprise Centre of Registers
32
33. Liquidity & funding
Long-term funding
g g
• Continued focus on covered bonds with full-year issuance of SEK 238bn
• SEK 23bn in senior unsecured issuance
• 4 EUR-denominated covered bond benchmark deals, each in the size of EUR 1bn
• 1 EUR-denominated senior unsecured benchmark deal of EUR 1bn
• Total term funding maturities in 2011 of SEK 180bn
Long-term funding maturity profile, SEKbn
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
2016-
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
80
-90 Other NON-SEK Covered Bonds SEK Covered Bonds
33
34. Liquidity & funding
Remaining government guaranteed debt
gg g
• Exited the programme on April 30, 2010
• No issuance under the programme since summer 2009
• SEK 75bn of government guaranteed debt matured during 2010
• Maturities of nominal SEK 80bn in 2011
Maturity p
y profile, SEKbn
,
0 USD
SEK
EUR
-20
CHF
HKD
-40 JPY
-60
-80
-100
100
2011 2012 2013 2014
34