World's best conditions and a 180 degree political shift have taken Argentina to a solar tipping point.
Argentina's government just announced a 9x over subscription of the country first renewable energy auction and thousands of MW are expected to come online.
This presentation explains why solar is taking off in Argentina and how can equity investors profit from the opportunity.
2. 2|
Argentina‘sUtilityScaleSolarMarketisAbouttoTakeOff
With perfect geographic and market conditions, Argentina has reached a tipping point
Overview
Who we are
Objective
► Argentina has just announced a 9x oversubscription of its first solar PPA auction (2,834MW of capacity
offered for 300MW auctioned).
► We expect a 1.5GW auction to be hosted mid-2017 opening a wide door to the market.
► We are two Argentines, Tomas and Marcos, who met at Stanford University during a joint MBA and MS in
Renewable Energy.
► Tomas has 5 years of experience as an energy lawyer helping companies such as Credit Suisse, General
Electric and IFC navigate Argentina’s electricity market. Marcos has over 6 years of experience developing
combined cycle power plants and midstream infrastructure.
► We want to raise investor awareness and help Argentina produce cheap clean energy
Why Argentina? Why now?
Excellent Geographic and Market Conditions
Insolation High
Transmission Available
Energy Need High
Marginal Prices High
Perfect timing
► A political shift has unlocked the opportunity. The country
has been ousted from international financial markets for 15
years. A new administration has turned the situation around,
creating opportunities for renewables project finance.
► New regulation provides well supported PPA’s: (i) PPA’s will
be guaranteed by Argentina and the World Bank; (ii) PPA’s will
be in US dollars; and (iii) renewables will have tax incentives,
dispatch and payment priority, and zero import tariffs.
- cost
+ willingness
to pay
3. 3|
Why Argentina? (pages 4 to 10)
Argentina is a high potential market
1) World’s best insolation (30% above Arizona)
2) Spare transmission capacity
3) Strong need for new generation
4) High marginal prices
With similar characteristics, solar is booming just 100
miles away, in Chile
Why Now? (pages 11 to 19)
Argentina’s market is ready
1) Argentina returned as investment destination
2) New law set to kick off renewables
Overview
Why Interesting? (page 20 to 24)
Solar provides a low risk/high yield opportunity
200 MW project example
1) Returns
2) Cash flows
3) Flip returns
Who We Are? (pages 25 to 27)
Highly motivated team with a passion for renewables
We performed an in-depth analysis
5. 5|
ArgentinaisaHigh-potentialMarket
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
Argentina’s geographic conditions and electric market situation are optimal for utility scale solar
World’s Best
Insolation
1 Spare
Transmission
Capacity
2 High Marginal
Prices
4Strong Need
for New
Generation
3
Unique geographic
conditions lead to high
irradiance levels
Current grid can absorb
2GW of solar with no new
investments
Virtually zero operating
reserve1 in a context of
increasing demand
Marginal prices above
$0.15/kWh make solar
competitive
(1) Operating Reserve as max demand divided by available capacity (minus one).
6. 6|
Ambient conditions result in greater energy output, leading to lower solar energy generation cost
Map source: SolarGIS
(1) Assuming typical derate is 0.25 % per degree Fahrenheit, starting at 68 F.
(2) Capacity Factor assumes 1 axis horizontal N/S CdTe array
High Insolation
• High altitude and extremely dry weather make North
West Argentina one of the world best areas for solar
• Most of the area is located 13,000+ feet above sea level,
reducing the atmosphere effect on solar beams
• 95%+ of days are cloud and fog free
World’sBestInsolation(30%aboveArizona)
Low temperature
• Average monthly temperatures of 36-55 Fahrenheit and
average maximum temperatures of 52-70 Fahrenheit
• Low temperatures increase panel performance as there is
almost no derating on site1
High Capacity Factor (above 35%)2
1
Selected
Region
Equivalent US
Max Isolation
Best World GHI Levels
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
7. 7|
Over 20k Miles of HV Transmission
2.2 GW
spare
capacity
for solar in
best
irradiation
area1
SpareTransmissionCapacity
Flexible Baseload
Ninety percent of Argentina’s generation can
compensate for renewable intermittency. The baseload is
made up by 41% hydro, 29% combined cycle natural gas
and 20% simple cycle (natural gas or fuel oil), which
collectively provides fast response times.
Excess Transmission Capacity
Two Gigawatts of solar can be added in the best solar
irradiation area with no need for costly and time
consuming upgrades in transmission capacity.
Interconnection with Neighboring Countries
Argentina is connected with all of its neighbors. Total
interconnection capacity reaches 9.5 GW, which helps with
renewables intermittency and adds to the potential market.
Current transmission grid can absorb up to 2 GW of solar with no additional investment
2
(1) Source: Internal estimates based on 2016 maximum auctioned capacities per node. Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
8. 8|Source: CAMMESA, and BMI Argentina Power Report Q2 2016
(*) Data not available: previous administration failed to report Available Capacity Levels
Argentina is thirsty for energy. During the last decade,
severe under-investment led to blackouts and consumption
restrictions. Consumption grew and generation remained
flat, shrinking excess capacity to critical levels.
Argentina’s operating reserve is now 20% lower than the
historical average and demand is expected to grow.
Solar, with fast deployment times, has the potential to
quickly address the need for new capacity.
StrongNeedforNewGeneration3
23 23 23 23
25 24 25 26
14 15 16 17
22
24 24 24
38.9%
35.0% 32.3%
28.3%
11.0%
2.9% 3.7%
7.2%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015
Available Capacity Max Demand Excess Capacity
With operating reserves at critical levels and demand expected to grow, significant need exists for
new generation
Critical reserve levels…
…with consumption forecasted to grow
122 128 131 136 140 145
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
CAGR 3.5%
N/A*
The biggest driver for solar in Argentina is its
energy deficit. In the last 15 years there has been
close to a 10 percent supply shortfall to account for
growing demand.
- Manan Parikh
Latam Analyst, GTM Research
“
”
(MW)
(TWh)
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
9. 9|
For the past 14 years, Argentina incentivized inefficient
diesel and fuel oil generation. The government did so to
cope with an increase in demand in times when long term
financing was not available.
Moreover, local gas production decreased, and Argentina
had to import gas in pipelines from Bolivia and LNG in ships.
Altogether, the lack of gas and the importation of liquid
fuels made fuel cost—and thus marginal prices—spike.
HighMarginalPrices
Argentina energy matrix relies heavily on imported diesel, fuel oil and natural gas, making solar a
competitive alternative
4
Grid heavy on fossil fuels…
Thermal
63%
… of which, increasingly more are imported
Hydro &
Nuclear
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Expensive
Imported Fuels
Cheap Local
Gas
Source: CAMMESA, and BMI Argentina Power Report Q2 2016
(MMm3/day eq.)
Solar generation will replace diesel peakers with
generation prices from $0.150/kWh to $0.300/kWh.
One Gigawatt of solar will save Argentina at least
$300 million per year.
- Sebastian Kind
Secretariat of Renewable Energy, Argentina
“
”
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
10. 10|
WithSimilarConditions,SolarisBoomingJust100MilesAwayinChile
Northwest Argentina, only 100 miles east of Chile, shares similar characteristics to Atacama and
Antofagasta deserts where 1.5 GW of solar are being deployed
Copiapo, Chile Puna, Argentina
Similarities:
• High Irradiation (>2,400 kwh/m2/yr)
• High Marginal Prices (from imported fuels)
• High Energy Need
Differences:
• Off-taker risk (Chile AA-, Argentina B-)1
(1) S&P government credit ratings
Leveling risk
Argentina Government and the World Bank will
provide strong guarantees that will shrink the
risk gap between Argentina and Chile.
Opportunity size
Argentina’s power market with 126TWh per year
is two times larger than that of Chile.
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
12. 12|
Argentina is back in the market
New market-friendly government has
moved quickly to solve the default
and eliminate market distortions that
kept investors away.
New regulation provides well-
supported PPA’s
Argentina will procure 300MW of
solar this year and ~1.5 GW on 2017
through PPA tender offers.
Argentina granted PPA bankability by
implementing sturdy guarantees.
Missed opportunity
Argentina has only 2.2 GW of spare
transmission capacity in the best
irradiation areas. At the pace of other
Latam markets, and at which
companies such as ENEL, Engie and
Jinko are moving, soon this capacity
will be saturated.
Project financing unavailable
Since Argentina’s default in 2001,
debt financing has been scarce. All
new generation capacity was directly
built by the government.
Lack of renewables regulation
Before October 2015, Argentina
lacked a regulatory framework for
renewable energy development.
Argentina’sMarketisReady
A 180o political shift has unleashed one of the world’s best solar markets; now is the time to
capture this opportunity
2015 Now
2017
and
beyond
Perfect Timing
1
2
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
13. 13|
End of default and holdout dispute
Argentina defaulted in 2001 and restructured the defaulted
debt in 2005 and 2010. However, a group of creditors did
not accept the restructuring (holdouts) and prevented
Argentina from making payments to restructured debt, which
cause the country to default yet again in 2012.
This situation has now changed. After 15 years, the new
government and the holdouts reached an agreement in
February 2016 after just three months of negotiations.
After the agreement, Argentina issued $16.5 billion in the
international markets, setting a 2x record as the largest
emerging market bond sale.
ArgentinaReturnedasInvestmentDestination|DefaultEnd
The new administration has quickly put Argentina on growth path, solving a 15 year default and
eliminating market distortions that hindered private investment
The immediate attention to paying
out the holdouts and listing in the
bond markets has created a
channel for private investment in
Argentina, that obviously didn't exist
before.
Argentina renewable energy
agenda is probably the most
interesting in the world at the
moment. We are expecting to be able
to finance some of the renewable
energy that is coming.
- Lizabeth Bronder
Latin America Director, IFC
“
”
1
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
14. 14|
End of FX restrictions and plan to stop inflation
Four years ago, the former administration set restrictions on the
purchase of US dollars, foreign currency and capital flows. The new
Administration announced the removal of these limitations as soon as it
took power in Dec’15.
ArgentinaReturnedasInvestmentDestination|MonetaryPolicy
$8
$11
$14
$17
Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16
FX AR/USD
The new Central Bank authorities have an inflation target plan based on
the end of years of monetary expansion.
20%
12% 8%
4%
10%
20% 20%
16%
25% 24% 25%
28%
38%
26% 25%
17%
12%
7%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Consumer Price Index (YoY variation)
Target
Reforms included the adoption of a conservative monetary policy, eliminating capital controls and
diminishing monetary expansion to curb inflation
Flying under the radar, is solar
energy’s improved with the
inauguration of President Macri.
The new head of state replaced
several years of inward-facing Cristina
Kirchner government, ushering in a
new business-friendly environment
that is helping to lure foreign
investment to Argentina’s previously
stagnant economy, with clean energy
being a major beneficiary of this
transition.
- Manan Parikh
Latam Analyst, GTM Research
“
”
Official USD
Black Market USD
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
15. 15|
ArgentinaReturnedasInvestmentDestination|FiscalPolicy
Less deficit and halt in reserve fall
The new administration plans to reduce fiscal deficit through
lower expenditure (lowering subsidies for public services which
are currently at 5.6% of GDP); and more efficient administration.
0.8% 1.2%
2.6%
3.8%
6.9%
4.6%
3.3%
1.8%
0.3%
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Deficit (% of GDP)
Since Dec’15 reserves increased by $5B, thanks to a currency
swap and lower export taxes. Other initiatives such as sovereign
issuances and higher FDI levels are expected.
32
46 46 48 52 46 43
31 31 26 30
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Gross International Reserves (in USD billions)
Target
From a fiscal policy perspective, the new administration is already rationalizing spending and has
eliminated export restrictions which will help to expand FX reserves
5.500
6.500
7.500
8.500
9.500
10.500
Jul Dec -15 Jun
Markets are talking too: corporate
yields plummet amidst reforms
JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Argentina Blended Yield
Macri takes office
First debt accords
Settlement with holdouts
Argentina $16.5b issuance
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
16. 16|
NewLawSettoKickOffRenewables
New law requires
minimum renewable
portfolio standards for the
grid (“RPS”):
• 8% by 2017 (~3 GW)
• 20% by 2025 (~7 GW)
The public utility
(CAMMESA) will auction
PPA contracts every year
to meet the RPS mandate.
Congress created a trust –
FODER – to provide the
guarantees detailed in the
previous slide.
FODER will be funded by
contributions from the
federal government and
fees on electricity rates.
RPS %
Top Tier
Guarantees
No import taxes will be
charged on renewable
generation equipment.
Law sets additional
incentives:
* Accelerated depreciation
* Accelerated VAT return
* Dispatch priority against
thermal generation
Zero import tariffs
Solar energy PPA’S with
the public utility
(CAMMESA) will be
denominated in dollars.
US Dollar PPA’s
Argentina’s Congress approved almost unanimously a new renewable energy law that provides
incentives and a clear framework for solar development
2
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
17. 17|
Timing
The government has
scheduled two solar auctions
for USD denominated PPAs:
1st: September 2016 (300 MW)
2nd July 2017 (1.5 GW1)
The first auction is open only to
current ready-to-build projects.
Off-taker
The off-taker in the public
tenders will be the public
system operator
(CAMMESA). This company is
the only system operator in
Argentina and manages all the
electricity dispatch and
contracts.
PPA’s will have dispatch and
paying priority with CAMMESA
against thermal generation.
Requirements
Developers need sufficient
title to the land (option;
ownership; lease or
concession) and permits:
Interconnection. Federal
permit. Requires an
engineering transmission study
and takes 4 - 8 months after
filing.
Generator. Federal permit.
Takes 4 - 6 months.
Environment. Filing of
environmental assessment
with local government. Takes 1
- 3 months.
Special
Considerations
No cross-competition
between technologies (solar,
wind and others).
Congestion risk will be avoided
by limiting the winning PPA’s
to the maximum transmission
capacity in each node.
(1) Estimate from Law 27,191 renewable portfolio standards
RestofTenderConditionsareAlsoFavorable
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
18. 18|
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035
Put Option Caps Long Term risk
Performing IRR1 – 12%
IRR by year of
default (put
exercise)
Positive IRR after year 5,
even under default
NewGuaranteesGrantBankability
Argentina public utility is not a credit rated off-taker and,
despite macro improvements, long term volatility is high. To
be bankable, upcoming PPA’s will have sturdy guarantees:
FODER
A trust funded by the Argentine Government – FODER – will
provide two levels of protection:
1. PPA payments guarantee
FODER will guarantee up to 12 months of PPA payments.
2. Put Option
In case of default, or impossibility to transfer profits abroad in
US dollars, the project company can force a sell.
FODER will purchase the project at 75% of original CAPEX
with 5% depreciation per year. This payment will be
backstopped by Argentina Treasury Notes.
World Bank Guarantee
Additionally, the World Bank will guarantee the FODER put
option up to $0.5 per watt
The World Bank and the Argentine Government will back the solar PPA’s limiting Argentina’s risk
and granting bankability
(1) Levered IRR, assuming 70% leverage, 6% cost of debt, $60/MWh PPA price, $1.3 per
watt installed; 31.6% capacity factor. Put IRR assumes no debt pre-payment penalties
years
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
19. 19|
“
”
At a time when more populist politics
are driving many countries away from
investment-friendly policies, Argentina
is quickly moving in the opposite
direction. Latin America’s fourth largest
economy is starting to open for
business.
Soon after taking office in December
2015, President Macri swept away
barriers to entry for private investors,
such as capital controls and trade
restrictions. Early fiscal adjustments to
reduce the comparatively high tax
burden and adjust subsidies were put
in motion, and, for monetary policy, the
peso printing presses finally slowed
and the currency floated. Early shock
therapy was unexpectedly successful,
for example with exports responding
quickly with a 25% year-over-year
increase in February 2016.
President Macri has decisively turned
away from the reckless economic
policies of former President Cristina
Fernández de Kirchner. We are
increasingly confident that Argentina’s
political and economic transition is
substantive and will open a range of
opportunities for investors.
The Macri government and the country
will undoubtedly have setbacks and
there is no guarantee of success, but
we think the door is now open for long-
term investors to consider Argentina.
- Neil R. Brown
Director, KKR
Source: KKR.com, “Argentina in Transition” Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
21. 21|
Project Returns
At current expected PPA prices,
an investor that funds a 200MW
with $91M would provide a ~12%
IRR
Such 12% return should be
compared to current Argentina’s
sovereign yield – currently 6%.
Given the certainty and stability of
solar projects output the project
risk will mainly correlates with that
of the off-taker (Argentina).
Solar projects deliver stable cash flows resembling those of a fixed income instrument but with higher
yield. Once construction is over, initial investors can sell the project to later stage funds at a premium.
Project Assumptions
• PPA price: $0.06/kwh
• Cost per W installed $1.3/W
• Capacity Factor: 31.6%
Financing Assumptions
• Leverage percentage: 70%
• Cost of Debt: 1yr Libor + 400
bps ~6% (source: IFC)
• Debt Term: 20 yrs.
De-risk and sell
17% to 42% IRR
Project Flip Returns
$91M to construction
equity
12% IRR
Project Flip Returns
Once the project is operational and
construction risk disappears, it
becomes attractive for more
conservative/later stage investors.
The initial investor can then “flip”
and sell the operational project.
Profit will derive from the lower
discount rates at which de-risked
projects are valued.
The earlier the flip, the higher the
return.
Acquisition Assumptions
• Acquirer discount rate: 8%
• Acquisition year of operation:
1st year for 42% IRR; 4th year
for 17% IRR.
SolarProvidesaLowRisk/HighYieldOpportunityforInvestors
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
24. 24|
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
200MWProjectExample|FlipReturns
When the projects become operational and construction risk
disappears, they become attractive for more
conservative/later stage investors. Such investors are not
wiling to take construction risk and in return they discount
their cash flows at lower rates.
An investor can benefit form the reduction in projects risk by
flipping (selling) the projects. The earlier the sell, the higher
the return.
IRR sensitivity to year of flip and acquirer discount rate:
Once the projects are operational and construction risk has been stripped out, an investor can
profit from selling the projects to later stage funds.
Early flip maximizes returns
Project IRR – 12%
IRR by year of
acquisition @ 8%
discount rate
% discount rate
7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0%
1 57% 49% 42% 36% 30%
Flip 2 31% 28% 25% 22% 20%
year 3 23% 22% 20% 18% 17%
4 20% 19% 17% 16% 15%
5 18% 17% 16% 15% 14%
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
26. 26|
Tomas Ocampo
MBA and MS in Energy at Stanford University.
Doctor of Law (J.D.) at UCA, Argentina.
Tomas has advised US investors in more than $6B energy
deals in Argentina. In his 5 years as an energy financing
lawyer he has structured the financing of Argentina’s first
wind farm, and worked in large hydro and gas projects.
In another life he represented Argentina in 3 sailing World
Championships
Marcos Ayestaran
MBA and MS in Energy at Stanford University.
BA Engineering at ITBA, Argentina.
Marcos has over 6 years of experience developing and
operating gas & power assets in Argentina. He led a team of
10 engineers responsible for 45% of the P&L of his
company. During his time at Stanford he led strategy for
Enlight, Mexico’s fastest growing rooftop solar company.
You can find him in his road bike every morning in Los Altos
HighlyMotivatedTeamwithaPassionforRenewables
We are two Stanford graduates with development and finance experience eager to see Argentina
pursue a sustainable energy path and investors make the most of this opportunity
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why Us
27. 27|
To accurately predict solar returns we combined geospatial,
transmission, and qualitative data into our financial analysis.
Geospatial (GIS) analysis
Selected best locations based on 5 objective parameters: (i)
radiation (more is better); (ii) distance to transmission (max
5 miles); (iii) land slope (max 8 degrees) ; (iv) avg.
temperature (less is better); (v) flooding zones (excluded).
Qualitative analysis
We visited the 17 best sites from our GIS analysis, mapped
the area with drones, and obtained both quantitative and
qualitative data on soil type, land ownership, and pre-
existence of other projects -among other things- to refine our
shortlist.
Independent transmission study
Finally, we used data on maximum transmission capacity
per node and interconnection costs to compare locations
vis-a-vis each other and estimate best projects returns.
WePerformedanIn-depthanalysis
We applied a scientific approach to identify the potential for utility scale solar in Argentina and predict
project returns
220 kV line – human eye view
220 kV line – GIS analysis
Why Argentina Why Now Why Invest Why UsMap source: Developed internally. Radiation GHI data from SolarGIS .
30. 30|
This memorandum is exclusively to be used as a market report and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of
an offer to buy the interests to any person in any jurisdiction.
This presentation was prepared by Tomas Ocampo and Marcos Ayestaran (the “Authors”). This presentation may not be
reproduced, summarized or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written authorization by the Authors.
This presentation may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While
these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these
forward-looking statements, which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this presentation. Please keep in mind that
we are not obligating ourselves to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward looking statements
in light of new information or future events.
The economic valuations contained in this presentation are necessarily based on current market conditions, which may
change significantly over a short period of time. Changes and events occurring after the date hereof may, therefore, affect
the validity of the conclusions contained in this presentation.
Disclaimer