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Benyt fortiden til at spå om fremtiden v/Troels Hessner
1.
www.forecast.it 12015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Partnering with:Troels Hessner Partner, Sales & Business Development th@forecast.it Jan. 28th 2015
2.
www.forecast.it 22015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S About Forecast.it • Startup based in Copenhagen • Founded in 2011 • All-in-one Project and Por/olio Management Solu1on
3.
www.forecast.it 32015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Customer pain • Nearly one half of so4ware projects (44%) are unsuccessful • 11% of all so4ware development investments are lost 56% 44% Successful Failure *Source:PMIPulse2014(http://www.pmi.org)&CIO.com
4.
www.forecast.it 42015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Where we provide most value Your organizaonal status? Op1mizing Managed Integrated Consistent Ini1alProcess uncontrolled, no 1me registra1on, unpredictable cost/schedule/quality, reac1ve and individually driven Some processes documented for projects, varying cost/quality/schedule, reac1ve Processes documented for organiza1on, reliable cost/schedule, proac1ve Quan1ta1ve control, KPI’s, well- de@ned process, uniform success Con1nuous improvement, success is norm, data-driven, automated, cost/schedule improving
5.
www.forecast.it 52015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Typical problems • Low project pro@tability and predictability due to inaccurate planning – Cost overruns are common • Quotes and proposals are generated using spreadsheets – These tools are typically not very intelligent or well integrated to corporate @nancial and opera1onal systems • Lack of intelligence and integra1on into back-end systems – No data visibility, synchroniza1on, and accuracy which can signi@cantly erode pro@t margins – No early warnings for projects going oC track
6.
www.forecast.it 62015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Typical esmaon approaches • 3-point • PERT • Ac1vity breakdown • Story points • Use Case Points • Func1on Points • COCOMO I/II • Other costs • Combina1on
7.
www.forecast.it 72015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Process quality maers • If we are not disciplined about the way we develop so4ware and collect data we will never achieve dependable and consistent results • This is valid for the en1re end-2-end IT project process – Not just development and test
8.
www.forecast.it 82015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Improving the process • Data is your best weapon to ensure predictability • There is no direct rela1on between predictability and detailed es1ma1on • It is what you don’t know you don’t know that creates the largest problems in terms of lead 1me variability – Structured data can help you with this
9.
www.forecast.it 92015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Collecng and measuring data • It's not that important what the sizing unit of data is collected as: – E.g. points, t-shirts, ideal hours, dogs • The importance comes from: – Picking a scale and s1cking to it in the long run (do not suddenly switch from points to t-shirts) – Correla1ng the actual amount of work with the sizing unit, so we can learn – Not storing the data in a PM's head
10.
www.forecast.it 102015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S T-shirt size distribuon behaviour
11.
www.forecast.it 112015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Price per point distribuon
12.
www.forecast.it 122015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Agile vs. tradional projects • Both approaches have their bene@ts and drawbacks – Don't make it a war about religion – Choose the methodology (or combina1on) that suits your organiza1onal temper – It's not that important for ensuring predictability ● Data is important! • We use agile (Scrum with Kanban) for some projects and a more tradi1onal Waterfall type approach for others
13.
www.forecast.it 132015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Pro-acvely learn from your projects • Collec1ng data in a structured manner from your projects enables learning that can be used extensively – For example it is possible to obtain up to 95% accuracy using only small, medium, large es1mates for user stories – Es1ma1ng becomes 2nd nature and will not require heavy amounts of work – Inexperienced PM's, developers etc. will s1ll be able to es1mate accurately
14.
www.forecast.it 142015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S • Problem ● No uniform process ● Manual handling of es1mates and no re-use of data ● Closing the gap between pricing and delivery - Examples of projects going extensively over 1me and budget • Solu on ● Op1miza1on and standardiza1on of the es1ma1on process ● Ensuring that data is centrally collected in a structured manner ● Use metrics they are familiar with (3-point Func1on Points) Case: Nets
15.
www.forecast.it 152015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Our approach with Nets • Forget the details – Pure ”top-down” approach – We can always make the data more granular • Solu1on support instantly – No need for heavy process implementa1on • Timeboxed implementa1on – Weeks, not years! – Con1nuous, incremental re@nement of data and process a4er implementa1on
16.
www.forecast.it 162015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Nets project model – PRINCE2 with Scrum
17.
www.forecast.it 172015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S • Be er predictability – Es1mates are generated from actual performance • Visibility and key insights – Automa1c collec1on of analy1cs and insights across projects in the organiza1on creates transparency • Increase in project performance – Algorithm in Forecast.it enables and drives con1nuous and automa1c feedback on performance • Reduce administra on – Op1miza1on and standardiza1on of the es1ma1on, priori1za1on and execu1on process minimizes administra1on and manual re-work Bene0ts for Nets
18.
www.forecast.it 182015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Client case “Forecast.it has enabled me to get rid of troublesome Excel spreadsheets. With the Forecast.it soluon I can quickly nd the data I need. Our esmates have improved signicantly. It is extremely simple to use.” Michael Bøje Andersen, Nets LargestNordicPaymentProvider Proven ROI of 2,2 mio. USD in less than 3 years
19.
www.forecast.it 192015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S QA Nets has executed around 330.000 project hours esmated through Forecast.it with an accuracy of 94.4% Ques1ons? Nets has executed over 330.000 project hours esmated through Forecast.it with an accuracy of more than 90% An improvement of at least 12 pts. from their previous soluon
20.
www.forecast.it 202015 ©
Copyright Forecast.it A/S Contact Thank you for your 1me! info@forecast.it +45 6177 9722
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