1. Predicting Future Growth from
Unbuilt Lots
Chris Whittaker-Jefferson County
Planning and Zoning Departments
Clay Raines-Jefferson County Planning
and Zoning Departments
2. Background Information
• Growth of Jefferson County’s population
– 49% population growth between 1990 and 2010 (from
35,926 residents in 1990 to 53,498 in 2010)
• In early 2000’s, over 1,000 residential lots per year
were approved by the Jefferson County Planning
Commission
• Large number of building permits obtained in early
2000’s in Jefferson County
– Peaked in 2003, just before impact fees were enacted.
• Impact fees pay for needed infrastructure required by new
development
• In Jefferson County: Schools, Parks, Police, and Fire Services.
• Slightly more than $13,000 per typical single family home
3.
4. A Couple of Newer Subdivisions
Huntfield in Charles TownBreckenridge North Subdivision
5. Gaining an Understanding
of the Existing Conditions
• Envision Jefferson 2035 Comprehensive Plan
– Enabled under §8A of WV Code
– Updated every 10 years
• Envision Jefferson 2035 is update of 2004
Comprehensive Plan
– Looks at existing conditions to gain an
understanding of issues
– Creation of Goals and Objectives
– Recommendations
– Required and Optional Topic Areas
6. Envision Jefferson 2035 Components
Per WV code 8A-3-4, the Comprehensive Plan SHALL HAVE,
but is not limited to, the following components:
Land Use Housing Transportation
Infrastructure Public Services Rural
Recreation Economic
Development
Community Design
Preferred
Development Areas
Renewal and/or
Redevelopment
Financing
Historic Preservation
6
Optional Components (Proposed to be included in 2014
Plan):
History Environmental Tourism
Conservation Safety Natural Resource Use
7. Existing Land Use Map
• Existing Land Use Map for Jefferson County
– First for County
– Shows state of development that is on the ground and
the locations of larger approved/unbuilt subdivisions
– Created using a number of tools
• County Assessors data
• Analysis of aerial and satellite photos
• Analysis of existing subdivision plats
• Ground truthing
• Public input at workshops and other meetings
8.
9. Issues
• Tracking the number and status of approved
and unbuilt residential building lots
– Similar to many smaller communities and
communities without adequate public facilities
ordinance
• Ensures that existing capacity is available for
transportation, sewer/water, schools, parks, etc.
– Creates a gap between understanding what
development might be accommodated on existing
lots and where new development might occur.
10. Why Concern about Unbuilt Lots
• While lots may be approved, changes in housing
market might impact the marketability of some
lots/subdivisions
• Numerous subdivisions are subject to provisions of
§8A-5-12 of WV Code
– “Zombie subdivisions” allows developer of approved plats
to maintain development rights until July 1, 2012 or later
depending on local government.
– Many of these subdivisions were slated to be built before
2007-2008 housing/credit crisis
– Kept alive by intervention from State Legislature or local
government
• Jefferson County extended cutoff date is July 1, 2015
12. What we are doing?
• Creating a map and database showing all
unbuilt residential and non-residential lots in
major and minor subdivisions
• Assessing potential build-out of Jefferson
County based on approved and unbuilt
residential and non-residential lots
14. The Start
• Working from an existing subdivisions
database created by Meghan Hammond a
previous intern.
• The majority of the subdivisions were
completed in phases, and each record was
recorded in sequence
– This means my records originally started as nearly
650 major subdivision polygons and 1300 minor
subdivisions
15. Trimming the Fat
• Needed to reduce the workload and volume,
but need to maintain record keeping
functionality
• Elected to merge records of same subdivision,
and keep the most recent planfile
• This reduced the number of records as well as
the polygons that needed examined
18. Collecting Data
• The next step was trying to find out how
many homes and buildable lots were actually
on the ground in a given subdivision.
• Used assessor’s data to determine the size
and value of a lot, to evaluate its viability
• The total number of approved lots was found
by examining, recorded files, community
impact statements, municipal records and in
select cases the most recent final plat.
22. The “Mountain”
• The previous strategy worked about 95% of
the time, until I encountered the lots on the
Mountain
• Here a new, more tedious strategy was
adopted.
• Moving alphabetically, I applied the same
strategy as with the traditional subdivisions,
except adopting stricter guidelines on lot size
(depending on location of the subdivision)
25. Worthwhile process
• Started with nearly 6,000 parcels
• Reduced to under 3,000 by removing parcels
unsuitable for building
• Proceeded to count the remaining lots and
addressed homes on the mountain to obtain
the last of my data
26. Results
• There are a total of 26,417 buildable lots in
Jefferson County, 12,506 are un-built at this
time
– Of the total lots 25,127 are in major subdivisons
– Major subdivisions also include 12,043 of the un-
built lots
27. Distribution of Unbuilt Lots
115
20
34
18
11 13
5 3 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
NumberofSubdivisions
Number of Unbuilt Lots
Frequency of Available Lots in major subdivisions
29. Further Plans
• Planning on doing a commercial buildout
potential as well
– Buildout analysis will be done using Community
Viz extension from Placeways LLC
• Obtained zoning for Charles
Town, Ranson, and the county as a whole
– Removed the properties that were already built
on, or did not meet minimum building
requirements
31. Applicability of unbuilt lot data
• Aid in subdivision and land use process
• Key component of Envision Jefferson 2035
document
• Use to assess viability of
population/employment projections
– WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research
– Metro Washington Council of Governments
– Hagerstown/Eastern Panhandle MPO
– Projection based on 2010-2012 Census growth
32.
33. Future Land Use Map
• Guide to help developers and public better
understand where growth is targeted over the
next two decades
• Provides greater clarity in comparison to
interpretation of descriptions.
• Based on data and public input
• Helps staff to better understand where zoning
changes might be warranted.
34. Timeline
• Finalization of unbuilt lots (including non-
residential lots) by late August
• Draft Future Land Use Map to be
completed by early 2014
• Final Future Land Use Map will be
included with Envision Jefferson 2035
Comprehensive Plan, to be completed by
the end of 2014
35. More Information
• Envision Jefferson 2035
– www.envisionjefferson2035.com
• Jefferson County Planning and Zoning
– http://www.jeffersoncountywv.org/government/d
epartments/planning-and-zoning-
department.html
Required component of WV Code 8APlan document prepared under direction of Planning Commission and County Commission -- Role of Steering CommitteeLays out a vision and sets forth policies for future development of the entire County -- Goals and ObjectivesOngoing input from citizens and community leadersBased on data inventory, analysis, and evaluation - Existing Conditions Includes existing and future land use maps and shows future growth areasServes as guide for community decisionsProvides policy and program guidance to decision-makersAccomplishes a coordinated and compatible development of land and improvements (i.e., land development regulations)Must be updated every 10 years