Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, 2016: Emerging market populations have never been younger and may never be larger. Over one billion young people (aged between 10 and 24) live in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and smaller emerging markets. India has over 700 million and China more than 500 million people under 30. This offers huge potential to harness their energy and creativity by engaging them in productive activities. Participants in the symposium on Young People and the Future of Emerging Markets concluded that governments’ failure to understand the mind sets of young people, master intergenerational communications and take measures to preserve the planet for future generations is extremely short sighted. The Emerging Markets Symposium brought together over 50 international experts and graduate students from 20 emerging market and high income countries. Hosted by Green Templeton College on 7-10 January, the symposium was designed to ensure its conclusions were grounded in the insights and priorities of young people.

1. ‘Young People and the
Future of Emerging Markets’
Jo Boyden,
Director, Young Lives
Oxford Department of International Development

2. Outline
• PART 1: Why are we talking about young people?
• PART 2: What do we know about young people’s development and
wellbeing?
• PART 3: How well are the young served in emerging markets?
• PART 4: What matters in planning for young people in emerging
markets?
Our focus: adolescence (ages 10-18) & youth (19-24)

3. PART 1: Why are we talking about young
people?

4. Is it because of the demographics?
• The current global population is the youngest we will ever see:
 there are over 1.8 billion people aged between 15-24;
 more than half of the total is under 30 years of age (NFPA, State of the World’s
Population 2014);
• Even though the proportion of young people to total population has
plateaued or is falling in many countries, this youthful demographic will
persist for some time.

6. Out of anxiety about youth destructiveness,
radicalism and violence and its societal impact?
“High concentrations of unemployed, disenfranchised youth in rapidly
growing urban centres has led to explosive conditions that have
resulted in social upheaval, political crisis, instability and violence”
(Ali 2014)

7. “Chile red-hot as student
protest turns violent”
“69 People Jailed Following Violent
Mexico Protests”
“A younger, more
militant faction of
Bahrain’s reform
movement is
threatening violence”
“In Egypt, disaffected youth
increasingly drawn into
extremism”

8. Or because we want to tap into the energy,
resourcefulness and agency of youth?
• Hilary Clinton’s address to young people in Tunisia:
“What is certain to me is that it will be the young people of Tunisia who
determine what the future will be. And many have asked: Why …did
young people here in Tunisia strike the first blows for freedom and
opportunity?”

9. Egypt's youth-led April 6 Movement in Tahrir
Square: Nominated for the Nobel Prize in 2011
“We don't want violence, our fight is not versus the police or to
destroy commercial shops … our fight is to recover the right to
education, on that we have been emphatic and clear”
– Camilla Vallejo, Chile
YP Foundation: one of
the largest youth based
and youth run NGOs in
India

10. Or because young people face immense
challenges?
• The CRC, MDGs, EFA promised much & Significant changes during the life course of this
generation of young - providing them with many new opportunities………but
• Despite macro-economic successes, poverty, inequality, social exclusion & hazardous
environments remain significant concerns
• The young confront unprecedented levels of privation, suffering & uncertainty (UNICEF 2011; United
Nations 2013)
 They comprise around 50% of the world’s income poor - most living in middle-income
countries (Sumner 2012)
 In some “fragile states”, almost ¾ of the population is under 30 (Yifu Lin 2012)
 ‘New’ challenges (e.g. economic & socio-cultural transition, climate change, depletion of
natural resources, exponential rates of urbanization & unemployment) + widespread
political & armed conflict & displacement
• Approx. 200 million children under 5 are failing to achieve their developmental potential (Engle et al.
2007; Wachs and Rahman 2013; Walker, et al. 2007)

11. Whatever the motive, there is much at stake…
Many observers equate the development of the young with that of nations:
• Mission of Center on the Developing Child, Harvard University:
‘We view healthy child development as the foundation of economic prosperity,
strong communities, and a just society, and our mission is to advance that vision
by using science to enhance child well-being through innovations in policy and
practice.’
Many argue that a prosperous future for society depends on individuals being
sufficiently skilled to take advantage of life’s ‘opportunities’:
• The World Bank Group’s Education Strategy 2020:
‘Simply put, investments in quality education lead to more rapid and sustainable
economic growth and development. Educated individuals are more employable,
able to earn higher wages, cope better with economic shocks, and raise
healthier children.’

12. PART 2: What do we know about young
people’s development and wellbeing?

13. Young people are disproportionately affected
by societal challenges
• Often they have less knowledge, experience & power & control fewer assets than
adults
• In some arenas (e.g. social media, internet etc.) they are better informed & skilled
than adults, who therefore cannot provide guidance
• Traditional social institutions are losing authority & becoming less able to support
young people
• Developmental processes increase young people’s susceptibility to external forces:
 Development is genetically influenced, but modifiable by the environment
 Deficits & risk in early life heighten probability of developmental loss or behavioural
pathology
 The diverse developmental systems interact with each other, with cumulative effect

14. So the context matters enormously
• Material conditions, physical resources, political-economic & institutional structures,
social norms & relations all play a part
• Many are disadvantaged because of both age & other aspects of their identity (class,
gender, religion, nationality, ethnicity, sexual orientation) (Kabeer 2005, Stewart 2002)
• The most proximal microsystem has most impact initially (e.g. intra-familial abuse,
household poverty = significant risks)
• Peer influences are increasingly important in adolescence & youth
• Distal factors (political violence, discrimination, service shortfalls) are key - but grossly
under-researched
• The world as it is perceived also matters: e.g. inequality & relative poverty
significantly undermine wellbeing (Wilkinson and Pickett 2009) - & incite unrest

15. Critical phases when the impact is greatest
• Early childhood : the first 1,000 days of life following conception are key = when the
framework is formed
• Adolescence (10 – 18 years): dynamic processes of biological (brain & sexual matu-
ration) & social development (differentiating self from others, forming self-control,
self-esteem & self-efficacy):
 behaviour advances towards adaptive long-term goals, balancing impulsivity,
exploration & defiance, & establishing effective societal participation (Davidson et
al 2015)
 multiple social transitions (education, employment, partnership, parenthood)
that can be thwarted, contradictory or reversed - may lead to frustration,
conflict with others.

16. Gender makes a significant difference
• Girls enter puberty up to 2 years before boys
• Many adolescent girls experience momentous social changes (leaving home, getting
married, becoming mothers) & have responsibilities that they are not ready to assume
• Decisions about girls shouldering these responsibilities are often made by others
• Girls under age 15 = 5 times more likely to die in childbirth than are women in their 20s;
infant mortality is 60% higher among children born to mothers under 19 years (UNICEF
2009)
• Unequal access to & control of assets affect expenditure on & investment in younger
generations, often with less outlay on girls than boys.

17. PART 3: How well are the young served in emerging markets?
 what do emerging markets offer the young?
 what are the implications of high concentrations of
young people for the future of emerging markets?

18. Selected findings from Young Lives
Study design:
• Mixed methods longitudinal study - of the experiences, determinants &
outcomes of childhood poverty : to influence policy
• Following 12,000 children in Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh & Telangana), Peru
& Vietnam over 15 years
• 2 age groups born 7 years apart interviewed at same ages to allow comparison &
tracking of changes in their lived environments
• 5 survey rounds & 4 waves of qualitative research
• Pro-poor sample: over 80 sites across the 4 countries reflecting country diversity,
rural-urban, livelihoods, ethnic, religious differences; roughly equal numbers of
boys & girls.

19. Some successes in India, Peru & Vietnam
• The MDGs, EFA etc. + macro-economic growth have benefited the young:
The economies of three countries grew rapidly between 2002 & 2012
There have been some important pro-poor, pro-youth policies
Leading to infrastructural improvements, increased service access & reduction in
absolute poverty overall among the young
• Young Lives finds important improvements by 2013:
Peru: 94% of the households had electricity, 93% had improved sanitation, & 79%
had access to piped water
India : 97 % of 12-year-olds were enrolled in elementary schools (a rise for girls from
87.3% in 2006 to 96.6% in 2013)
Vietnam: in 2013 nearly 20% of the children were stunted at age 12, compared with
30% of 12-year olds in 2006.

20. But inequality and relative poverty persist
• India:
 Young rural women were more than twice as likely to be a mother by age 19
than young urban women (24% versus 11%)
 Early school departure rates for 19-year olds from Scheduled Caste & Scheduled
Tribe groups were almost double the rate for Other Caste groups
 From ¼ (boys) to ½ (girls) of the test score differences between children in these
groups & their more advantaged peers resulted from under-nutrition (Lopez Boo
and Canon, 2013, p.4).
• Vietnam, though more equal:
 School enrolment for the better off 1/3rd of children was 40% higher than that of
the poorest 1/3rd by age 15
 52% of ethnic minority children were stunted compared with 14% of ethnic
majority children

21. Gender-based disparities
• Disparities widen in adolescence:
 In Vietnam an initial difference of 5 percentage points in school enrolment
between poor children & the rest more than tripled between ages 12 & 15
• But boys are not always advantaged:
 Peru & Vietnam: poor boys are more likely than poor girls to have left school by
age 15
 Gender gaps in school achievement grow between ages 12 & 15 - strongly pro-
boy in India & pro-girl in Vietnam
• And gender is less significant than other factors as a cause of disparity:
 India: almost no differences in boys’ and girls’ scores in maths at 8 years, but
gaps between poorer & wealthier children at this age are considerable

22. Learning crisis
• India & Peru: poor quality services for the poor – schools amplifying inequalities between
the young (Woodhead, Dornan & Murray, 2013)
• Peru:
 Even when in the same schools, poorer & ethnic minority children are less well
served (Cueto, Escobal, Penny, & Ames, 2011)
 School-quality differences explain 78% of the achievement gap in maths when more
& less disadvantaged young people are compared (Krutikova, Rolleston & Aurino, 2014)
• India:
 Declining quality of (& confidence in) government schools -
 Maths learning levels of 12-year-olds had declined by 14 percentage points in
2013 as compared to 2006
 24 % of 8-year-olds in the older cohort were in private schools in 2001 whereas
by 2009 44% of the younger ones were at the same age

23. Other studies point to: health challenges
• 10-25 years is the healthiest age group in emerging markets………..but
• Environmental toxins (e.g. lead exposure, air pollution) have devastating life-long
impacts on learning, behavior & achievement (Engle et al. 2007; Gavidia, et al 2009)
• Young at increased risk of specific problems – e.g. STIs, meningitis, & trauma (civil &
interpersonal violence, unintentional injury - accidents) . Often leading to mental
illness & substance-use
• Communicable diseases (e.g. HIV, TB, malaria ) are the leading causes of Disability
Adjusted Life Years in 10-19 year olds (Davidson, Grigorenko, Boivin, Rapa & Stein 2015)
• Many psychiatric disorders begin in adolescence: anxiety & depression rates about
double for girls compared to boys (Kessler 2003)
• 14-19 years = the peak age for violence towards self (self-harm & suicide) & others
(e.g. partner violence, criminal acts) & for experiencing violence; boys = more
frequently the perpetrators & victims

24. Youth under/unemployment
• Youth unemployment can be twice or more the national average (World Bank 2012)
• Youth - far more likely to be laid-off & in poorly-paid, insecure informal jobs without
proper entitlements
• Prolonged unemployment undermines self-esteem & motivation (Ryan 2000), leaving
some permanently disadvantaged economically
• Together with poor-quality jobs, unemployment is a major cause of youth migration –
both ‘brain drain’ & movement into emerging markets (e.g. India, South Africa)

25. PART 4: What matters in planning for young
people in emerging markets?

26. Historical legacy shapes our thinking today
• Human development – a universal biological process
 humans born dependent, irrational, weak & progress in fixed stages to adult
competence & autonomy
 those who do not conform = deviant
 ‘adolescence’(14-24 years) a time of ‘storm & stress’ (G. Stanley Hall 1904)
• Modern concern with ‘risk’ can degenerate into essentialised stereotypes:
 young men demonised as ‘troublesome’, a ‘risk to society’
 young women victimised as ‘troubled ’, ‘at risk from society’ (Stainton-Rogers &
Stainton-Rogers 1992)
• This thinking justifies:
 securitisation & control, e.g. in Latin America against ‘out of place’ young people
• Will the SDGs make a significant difference?

27. The discourse is shifting away from ‘wellbeing’
towards ‘productiveness’
• Macro economic growth = the goal – human capital formation rather than human
development:
underscores the consequences of early life deprivation for adult productivity &
national economic prospects
highlights economic efficiency of investing in early childhood…
turning the young into productive adults by promoting entrepreneurism,
financial literacy & free market ideology
• Onus on individuals: structural constraints are ignored
• Neglects social justice & human rights
• And what happens now that the economies of emerging markets are slowing
down?

28. Be wary of misplaced priorities
• Blaming the ‘youth bulge’ for societal destabilisation & generational conflict:
 contains/undermines movements for social reform, rebellion
 hides the diversity of actors and groups involved in dissent (e.g. Arab Spring)
 silences wider discussion of class, race, gender, religion & inequalities
• Demand rather than supply:
 An assumption that low aspirations & ignorance among the poor are the problem
 In practice, states are in retreat – structural adjustment & private sector provision
• Blaming culture:
 Elimination of ‘harmful traditional practices’ (early & forced marriage, FGM etc.)
against girls via engineered cultural change
 Programmes to prevent boys from becoming radicalized, recruited into terrorist
groups
• Policy rather than politics:
 Technocractic remedies rather than real change via prevention, governance, reform
 Economic growth rather than redistribution to reduce poverty & inequality

29. Be wary ………………
• Global institutions underplay the collapse in demand for labour - focusing on challenges
of labour market entry for youth (Sukarieh and Tannock 2014)
• ‘Skills gap’ rhetoric:
Youth labour-market difficulties = education system failures alone (World Economic Forum)
E.g. Arab region - idea that youth lack right skills justifies business-led education
reform (e.g. Egypt, Yemen, Libya) (Sukarieh & Tannock 2014)
• Yet:
 Many unemployed youth have relatively high qualifications
 Unemployed university graduates at heart of many uprisings
• Misplaced responses:
After global financial crisis 40/131 countries in Europe, Latin America, Middle East &
sub-Saharan Africa reformed labour laws: most weakened employment protections
Efforts to stimulate youth employment with youth wage subsidies (e.g. Employment
Tax Incentive in South Africa = ‘government subsidising indecent work’ for young)

30. What role for young people themselves?
• Young people are not the passive recipients of experience but engage actively with the
structures and processes around them, building competencies through such engagement
• Yet despite their demographic presence, influence globally as a market niche &
importance for policy, their voices are still largely missing from debates on the future of
their societies
• Rarely is risk considered in relation to what young people identify as the main threats &
supports to their wellbeing or how they manage risk in daily life
• Developmental theory essentialises the young to become the same as us (with limited
possible futures)
• Similarly, so-called developing nations are cajoled to become the same as industrialized
nations
• In so doing, we deny the young their own trajectories, their own histories, & futures that
are different, & perhaps better, than ours (Aitken, Lund, Kjørholt 2007)

31. Young people’s self-organisation & collective action is vital
• MANTHOC: a movement of adolescent & youth workers in 10 Peruvian
provinces:
Began in 1976 to defend the rights of young workers, dignifying labour &
improving the conditions under which they work
Undertakes community projects
• GALA (Gay and Lesbian Memory in Action, South Africa):
est. 1997. Mobilises LGBTI youth to take action against discrimination (e.g.
2015 Queer Youth Exchange Project in Johannesburg)

32. • Call for a realization and re-imagining of the full potential of young people
The stark & oppressive outcomes of neo-liberal agendas & global corporate
capitalism (the commodification of lifestyles, global sex trade, wars &
displacement that increasingly involve the young ) on the world’s young are not
inevitable
The possibility of their participation in, & construction of, a very different form of
globalized development
Stuart C. Aitken, Ragnhild Lund & Anne Trine
Kjørholt (2007)

33. THANK YOU!