SLN SOLsummit 2010 http://slnsolsummit2010.edublogs.org February 26, 2010 Phil Ice, Director of Course Design, Research & Development, American Public University System Student Retention in Online Programs As the growth of online programs continues to rapidly accelerate, concern over retention is increasing. Models for understanding student persistence in the face-to-face environment are well established, however, the many of the variables in these constructs are not present in the online environment or they manifest in significantly different ways. With attrition rates significantly higher than in face-to-face programs, the development of models to explain online retention is considered imperative. This presentation will focus on the relationship between student characteristics and online behaviors, and retention. Participants will be presented with a methodology that can be used in their own programs to help understand factors influencing retention and ways to detect at risk students.

1. Student
Retention
In
Online
Programs
Phil Ice, Ed.D.
SLN SOL Summit
Syracuse, 2010

2. The State of Online Learning
 approximately 4 million students taking
online courses with 12.9% growth rate
 outpacing face-to-face by 6 to 1
 US Department of Education metastudy –
online is more effective than face-to-face
 dropout rates much higher – some studies
show up to 7 times greater

3. Retention
 a concern in higher education since the late
1800’s
 GPA, SAT, ACT, ect. traditional predictors of
retention
 Tinto, Astin, Braxton and others have
demonstrated the role of social integration
 measures of social integration well defined in
the face-to-face setting – not in online

4. social presence cognitive presence
teaching presence

5. Social Presence
 the ability of participants in a community of
inquiry to project themselves socially and
emotionally -- as ‘real’ people
 the degree to which participants in computer
mediated communication feel socially and
emotionally connected

6. Social Presence - Elements
 affective expression (expressing emotion,
self-projection)
 open communication (learning climate, risk
free expression)
 group cohesion (group identity, collaboration)

7. APUS Study
 American Public University System
 Approximately 60,000 students
 100% online
 monthly course starts
 CoI is the end of course survey
 eight semesters of data collection
 CoI survey items regressed on retention

8. Findings
 21 of the 34 items were found to be
significant predictors
 21.1% of variance accounted for
 two items accounted for 20.2% of variance
accounted for using forward entry:
 Q16: Online or web-based communication is
an excellent medium for social interaction –
18%
 Q15: I was able to form distinct impressions
of some course participants – 2.2%

9. Subsequent Research
 Inclusion of Transfer Credit, Age, Gender,
Ethnicity, GPA, Last Course Grade, Military /
Civilian Status, Program, Course Duration,
Time Since Last Course
 42.7% of variance accounted for
 19% for two previous CoI items
 15.3% for Transfer Credit
 4.6% for Last Course Grade

10. Conclusions
 students perceptions of adequacy of the
online medium for social interaction may be
significant for retention
 technology may be a prime determinant of
students perception of adequacy
 Institutional investment in social networking
and rich interactive technologies may
significantly impact retention
 Transfer Credit may be an indicator that
students have acquired skills – more research
needed

11. Moving Forward
 Transactional data needed to understand
what is occurring in the LMS / other learning
environments
 Event layer data extraction for LMS
 Semantic mapping using Common Library for
materials generated within courses

12. The Technology Fix
 Occasional and poor connectivity are
problems
 PLE’s to overcome low media richness
 Implementing RIA’s
 AIR / Flex POC