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CASE STUDY


Social Network Analysis of the
2012 US Elections
Alkis Papadopoullos, Chief Technology Officer, Voxco




                                                     © Voxco 2012, Decembre 2012
Foreword

Until very recently, polls felt like the law of the land in traditional
media and public opinion. The analysis of social networks now offers
new possibilities in terms of innovation and business intelligence. If
they implement a contextualization process, firms and political
organizations can gain significant competitive advantages: a better
understanding of the market, bigger cost savings, faster growth,
smarter use of resources and more efficient targeting of a favourable
clientele.


Techniques of social networks analysis are improving at an
exponential rate; so much so that they are now foreshadowing the
use of individuals’ comments and interaction as a strategic vector.


Today, best practices serve as an example to optimize business
processes but most of all, they help in capturing new markets by
reducing the risks in said markets. This case study describes Voxco’s
perspective on the revolution we are witnessing in the field of social
networks analysis.


We hope this study will be a source of inspiration for you with
regards to social network analysis within your company.




Raymond Cyr
Raymond Cyr
President




                                                        1 | Page
Establishing specific objectives

                          In July of 2012, Voxco was mandated by Bellwether Research &
                          Consulting to analyze the US elections specifically on the social
                          networks. Our analyses were to cover a few American States, but
                          mostly Indiana, where telephone and mobile surveys were also
                          carried out. The main challenge was to circumscribe Web content
                          (Web sites, RSS feeds, tweets) coming from the States under
                          scrutiny. It was an even bigger challenge since some topics of
                          national interest also included local issues.


                          Preliminary analyses allowed Voxco to identify and circumscribe the
                          main Web content from the examined States. With its strong
                          understanding of the regional market, Bellwether Research &
                          Consulting has added to the content sources by suggesting a list of
                          local sites. That collaboration has allowed for a maximum coverage,
                          composed of general interest sources and specialized ones at the
                          same time, thus guaranteeing more relevant results.




                          Using a sound methodology

                          A social networks analysis was undertaken over the course of
                          3 months: from the beginning of August to November 6th, or Election
                          Day. During that period, Voxco was in charge of following up on
      Acuity4 Social’s    emerging themes, week after week. Based on requests, essentially
     contextualization    composed of the names of Republican and Democratic candidates,
 allowed for a follow-    the Acuity4 Survey platform managed to identify the soundest
                          documents, articles and tweets. Furthermore, it was able to retrieve
      up of the topics’
                          the context from these mentions of the candidates’ names.
evolution and made it
  possible to compare     Setting up the context was this case study’s most important
   these evoked topics    functionality. Many tools allow us to count the number of mentions
     with the different   without managing to extract the context, the related subjects or
candidates’ mentions.     themes and the link between these concepts. Acuity4 Social’s
                          contextualization allowed for a follow-up of the topics’ evolution and
                          made it possible to compare these evoked topics with the different
                          candidates’ mentions.
                                                                                 2 | Page
The sentiment analysis functionality was most appreciated by our
client. With the support of excerpts, it introduces the public’s
opinions with regards to themes related to each candidate. Figure 1
eloquently illustrates the themes evoked for each candidate on the
week of October 1st. Each theme is identified by a grey, green or red
rectangle, representing a neutral, positive or negative opinion.




Getting concrete results

Democratic candidate Joe Donnelly’s results evoked:

    •   The promotion of a law favouring farm assistance
    •   A negatively-perceived association with President Obama


Republican candidate Richard Mourdock’s results evoked:

    •   A lack of will to collaborate with the other political party
    •   An affiliation with the Tea Party
    •   His opposition to the car industry bailout
    •   Mentions of national stakes such as
            o   Obamacare
            o   Indiana being a State where the Senate race
                would be tight




                                                         3 | Page
st
Figure 1. Main themes evoked with the candidates’ name on week of October 1 , during Indiana’s Senate race.




                           Figure 2 introduces the themes evoked 3 weeks later, following a
                           televised debate during which Mourdock starts off a controversy
                           with regards to rape and abortion1. As you can see, the results of the
                           analysis “tell a story”. It is clear that online comments reflect
                           significant dismay and dissatisfaction regarding Mourdock’s remarks.
                           Incidentally, these themes dominated the analyses until the end of
                           the electoral campaign, which will result, much to the surprise of
                           everyone, in the election of a Democratic Senator in Indiana.




                                                                                          4 | Page
nd
Figure 2. Main themes evoked with the candidates’ name on week of October 22 ,
                         during Indiana’s Senate race.




             The ability to follow up on topics or brands according to their
             context makes the analyses much more reliable. In cases of crisis
             management, for instance, the context is absolutely necessary to
             precisely identify the source of the crisis, the scope and the
                                                                           5 | Page
influencers. Gathering contextual data allows for the quick
                           understanding of the reason for an event or trend.




                           Interpreting the results

                           During that same campaign, Voxco also had to cover the race for
                           superintendent of public instruction. Since the victory of Republican
                           candidate Tony Bennett was practically assured, we limited the
                           range analysis to the last days of the campaign. Come election night,
                           surprise surprise: Bennett was defeated by Democratic candidate
                           Glenda Ritz, a teacher that won awards for her work in education
                           but an almost unknown politician. How was that possible? Figures 3
                           and 4 illustrate the reason.




Figure 3. Sudden rise in the mentions of the candidates’ names and related themes, just before the election.



                           Democrats took advantage of the fact that Tony Bennett had
                           mentioned on many occasions that government money would not
                           suffice to fund music and arts programs. Democrats started
                           bombarding social networks with messages about that topic, as well
                           as insisting on the privatization of the education system and the
                           emphasis, too important, placed on national tests.

                                                                                            6 | Page
Figure 4. Mentions of Tony Bennett evoke the cuts to music and arts programs,
the privatization of education and too great a dependence on standardized tests.




                                                               7 | Page
To conclude

In the next 12 to 18 months, firms must act to capitalize on the
opportunity offered by social network analysis. Some have already
adopted these tools, such as Acuity4 Social, to push the boundaries
of their competitive advantage. And as we have already
demonstrated in this document, the results are practically
instantaneous. The technology is there and the managers are ready
to innovate in order to obtain results.

It is time to take advantage of that and generate value added for
your business. Listen to your colleagues and employees; you’ll realize
they are probably already asking for such a tool.



Alkis Papadopoullos
Chief Technology Officer
Voxco




                                                       8 | Page

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Social network-analysis-case-study

  • 1. CASE STUDY Social Network Analysis of the 2012 US Elections Alkis Papadopoullos, Chief Technology Officer, Voxco © Voxco 2012, Decembre 2012
  • 2. Foreword Until very recently, polls felt like the law of the land in traditional media and public opinion. The analysis of social networks now offers new possibilities in terms of innovation and business intelligence. If they implement a contextualization process, firms and political organizations can gain significant competitive advantages: a better understanding of the market, bigger cost savings, faster growth, smarter use of resources and more efficient targeting of a favourable clientele. Techniques of social networks analysis are improving at an exponential rate; so much so that they are now foreshadowing the use of individuals’ comments and interaction as a strategic vector. Today, best practices serve as an example to optimize business processes but most of all, they help in capturing new markets by reducing the risks in said markets. This case study describes Voxco’s perspective on the revolution we are witnessing in the field of social networks analysis. We hope this study will be a source of inspiration for you with regards to social network analysis within your company. Raymond Cyr Raymond Cyr President 1 | Page
  • 3. Establishing specific objectives In July of 2012, Voxco was mandated by Bellwether Research & Consulting to analyze the US elections specifically on the social networks. Our analyses were to cover a few American States, but mostly Indiana, where telephone and mobile surveys were also carried out. The main challenge was to circumscribe Web content (Web sites, RSS feeds, tweets) coming from the States under scrutiny. It was an even bigger challenge since some topics of national interest also included local issues. Preliminary analyses allowed Voxco to identify and circumscribe the main Web content from the examined States. With its strong understanding of the regional market, Bellwether Research & Consulting has added to the content sources by suggesting a list of local sites. That collaboration has allowed for a maximum coverage, composed of general interest sources and specialized ones at the same time, thus guaranteeing more relevant results. Using a sound methodology A social networks analysis was undertaken over the course of 3 months: from the beginning of August to November 6th, or Election Day. During that period, Voxco was in charge of following up on Acuity4 Social’s emerging themes, week after week. Based on requests, essentially contextualization composed of the names of Republican and Democratic candidates, allowed for a follow- the Acuity4 Survey platform managed to identify the soundest documents, articles and tweets. Furthermore, it was able to retrieve up of the topics’ the context from these mentions of the candidates’ names. evolution and made it possible to compare Setting up the context was this case study’s most important these evoked topics functionality. Many tools allow us to count the number of mentions with the different without managing to extract the context, the related subjects or candidates’ mentions. themes and the link between these concepts. Acuity4 Social’s contextualization allowed for a follow-up of the topics’ evolution and made it possible to compare these evoked topics with the different candidates’ mentions. 2 | Page
  • 4. The sentiment analysis functionality was most appreciated by our client. With the support of excerpts, it introduces the public’s opinions with regards to themes related to each candidate. Figure 1 eloquently illustrates the themes evoked for each candidate on the week of October 1st. Each theme is identified by a grey, green or red rectangle, representing a neutral, positive or negative opinion. Getting concrete results Democratic candidate Joe Donnelly’s results evoked: • The promotion of a law favouring farm assistance • A negatively-perceived association with President Obama Republican candidate Richard Mourdock’s results evoked: • A lack of will to collaborate with the other political party • An affiliation with the Tea Party • His opposition to the car industry bailout • Mentions of national stakes such as o Obamacare o Indiana being a State where the Senate race would be tight 3 | Page
  • 5. st Figure 1. Main themes evoked with the candidates’ name on week of October 1 , during Indiana’s Senate race. Figure 2 introduces the themes evoked 3 weeks later, following a televised debate during which Mourdock starts off a controversy with regards to rape and abortion1. As you can see, the results of the analysis “tell a story”. It is clear that online comments reflect significant dismay and dissatisfaction regarding Mourdock’s remarks. Incidentally, these themes dominated the analyses until the end of the electoral campaign, which will result, much to the surprise of everyone, in the election of a Democratic Senator in Indiana. 4 | Page
  • 6. nd Figure 2. Main themes evoked with the candidates’ name on week of October 22 , during Indiana’s Senate race. The ability to follow up on topics or brands according to their context makes the analyses much more reliable. In cases of crisis management, for instance, the context is absolutely necessary to precisely identify the source of the crisis, the scope and the 5 | Page
  • 7. influencers. Gathering contextual data allows for the quick understanding of the reason for an event or trend. Interpreting the results During that same campaign, Voxco also had to cover the race for superintendent of public instruction. Since the victory of Republican candidate Tony Bennett was practically assured, we limited the range analysis to the last days of the campaign. Come election night, surprise surprise: Bennett was defeated by Democratic candidate Glenda Ritz, a teacher that won awards for her work in education but an almost unknown politician. How was that possible? Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the reason. Figure 3. Sudden rise in the mentions of the candidates’ names and related themes, just before the election. Democrats took advantage of the fact that Tony Bennett had mentioned on many occasions that government money would not suffice to fund music and arts programs. Democrats started bombarding social networks with messages about that topic, as well as insisting on the privatization of the education system and the emphasis, too important, placed on national tests. 6 | Page
  • 8. Figure 4. Mentions of Tony Bennett evoke the cuts to music and arts programs, the privatization of education and too great a dependence on standardized tests. 7 | Page
  • 9. To conclude In the next 12 to 18 months, firms must act to capitalize on the opportunity offered by social network analysis. Some have already adopted these tools, such as Acuity4 Social, to push the boundaries of their competitive advantage. And as we have already demonstrated in this document, the results are practically instantaneous. The technology is there and the managers are ready to innovate in order to obtain results. It is time to take advantage of that and generate value added for your business. Listen to your colleagues and employees; you’ll realize they are probably already asking for such a tool. Alkis Papadopoullos Chief Technology Officer Voxco 8 | Page