1. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010
‫ﺑﻼﻏﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻬﺩ‬–‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬
www.inra.org.ma
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬
« ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ »
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺻﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬

2. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 2
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺣﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻫﻳﻣﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺑﻳﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
IPCC Working Group II, 2007
‫ﺍﻷﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻁﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟﺣﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬

3. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 3
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻵﺛﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬

4. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 4
‫ﺟﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﺧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺳﺑﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﺻﺣﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬

5. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Pluviométrie(mm)
576mm 639mm
478mm
438mm
383mm
Rupture
Meknès
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 910 1 920 1 930 1 940 1 950 1 960 1 970 1 980 1 990 2 000 2 010 2 020
Pluviométrie(mm)
378mm
1915 - 1939
365mm
1940 - 1979
293mm
1980 - 2006
Rupture
Settat
‫ﺍﻟﺛﻣﺎﻧﻳﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺍﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻛﻧﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺳﻁﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛﺳﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﺳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﻫﻁﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﻫﻁﻭﻝ‬

6. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 6
‫ﺍﻟﺛﻣﺎﻧﻳﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺍﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻗﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬

7. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 7
‫ﻗﺎﻡ‬‫ﻛﻝ‬‫ﻣﻥ‬‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺻﻳﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺭﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺑﻧﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬(WB)‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬‫ﻣﻊ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻬﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ‬‫ﻟﻠﺑﺣﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬‫ﻭﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﻣﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺣﺩﺓ‬‫ﻟﻠﺗﻐﺫﻳﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬
)FAO(‫ﻭ‬‫ﻣﺩﻳﺭﻳﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻳﺔ‬‫ﻟﻸﺭﺻﺎﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﺟﻭﻳﺔ‬‫ﺑﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬‫ﻭﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﻳﺔ‬‫ﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬‫ﺁﺛﺎﺭ‬‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺑﻳﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺧﻳﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬.‫ﺍﻹﻳﻛﻭﻟﻭﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺗﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬
ftp://ext-ftp.fao.org/SD/Reserved/Agromet/WB_FAO_morocco_CC_yield_impact/report/WB_Morocco_20091013.pdf

8. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 8
‫ﺳﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﻟﻸﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻼﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﺣﺎء‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻣﻥ‬A2،‫ﺳﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬3‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻠﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬2080‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬-‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺗﺻﻝ‬ ، ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬5‫ﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺑﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺣﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻳﻧﺟﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬)‫ﺍﻟﻧﺑﺎﺗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬(‫ﻟﺗﺻﻝ‬
20‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻠﻭﻝ‬ ٪2050‫ﻭ‬40‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻠﻭﻝ‬ ٪2080‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺛﻧﺎء‬ ،
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﺭﺍﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬9‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪2080.
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺗﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬1961-1990‫ﺍﻷﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺷﻣﻝ‬ ،
‫ﺃﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻼﺩ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺋﺭ‬2071-2099.‫ﻷﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬
‫ﺳﻳﻧﺧﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻁﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺗﺷﺎﺅﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻧﺣﻭ‬20‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻠﻭﻝ‬ ٪2050‫ﻭ‬40‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻠﻭﻝ‬ ٪2080،
‫ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﺭﺍﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺛﻧﺎء‬16‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪
‫ﺃﻓﻕ‬2080.‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺷﺎﺋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺟﻝ‬A2‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺳﺎﻗﻁﺎﺕ‬.،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺑﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﺭﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺻﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻧﺷﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺳﺎﻗﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺫﺭﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺗﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺭ‬

9. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 9
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻣﺢ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺎﻟﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺧﻔﻳﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺭ‬
Aptitude forte (S1) 1.1 %
Aptitude moyenne (S2) 9.4%
Aptitude faible (S3) 17.7%
Inapte (N) 71.8%
Aptitude forte (S1) 2.9 %
Aptitude moyenne (S2) 11.2%
Aptitude faible (S3) 18.7%
Inapte (N) 67.2%
Aptitude forte (S1) 4.3 %
Aptitude moyenne (S2) 12.1%
Aptitude faible (S3) 24.8%
Inapte (N) 58.8%
2000
2050
2100

10. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 10
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺑﺳﺑﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﺩﺭﻳﺟﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺭﺗﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺛﻳﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺷﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻘﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻣﻣﻁﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﻪ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬.‫ﺳﻳﺅﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬2030.
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻌﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬)‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬(‫ﺑﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬.،‫ﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻳﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﻘﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺳﺗﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺩﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺳﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ،‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺩﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍ‬2030‫ﺗﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺻﻭﺻﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬2‫ﺑﺎﻟﺳﻳﻧﺎﺭﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺏ‬2.‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﺄﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺟﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺿﺭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬.
A:‫ﺑﻘﻭﻟﻳﺎﺕ‬‫ﻣﺳﻘﻳﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻸ؛‬B:‫ﺃﺷﺟﺎﺭ‬‫ﻣﺛﻣﺭﺓ‬‫ﻣﺳﻘﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺧﺿﺭﻭﺍﺕ؛‬C:‫ﺍﻟﻛﻸ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺧﺿﺭﻭﺍﺕ؛‬D:‫ﺣﺑﻭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻣﺢ‬‫ﺍﻟﺑﻌﻠﻳﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺑﻘﻭﻟﻳﺎﺕ؛‬E:‫ﺣﺑﻭﺏ‬‫ﻗﻣﺢ‬‫ﺍﻟﺧﺭﻳﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻌﻠﻳﺔ؛‬F:‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺎﺕ‬‫ﺑﻌﻠﻳﺔ‬‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬.

11. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 11
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻳﻛﻭﻟﻭﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﺧﺗﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
D
EF
O
R
IEN
TA
LE
D
EF
SU
D
FA
VO
R
A
B
LE
IN
TER
M
ED
IA
IR
E
M
O
N
TA
G
N
E
SA
H
A
R
IEN
Barley Durum wheat rainfed Soft wheat rainfed

12. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 12
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬
"‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬"
‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻼﺣﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬10‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺑﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‬

13. 2010 ‫ﻣﺎﻳﻭ‬21-19‫ﺍﻟﺭﺑﺎﻁ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺗﺻﺣﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻛﺎﻓﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺎﺭﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻛﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﻼﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻗﻼﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬
3 ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺣﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻧﻣﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻳﻘﻳﻥ‬ 1
Nécessité d’une stratégie autour de 2 piliers prenant en compte
toutes les catégories d’acteurs, y compris les plus fragiles
3 ''‫ﺍﺳﺗﺛﻧﺎء‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺟﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻼﺣﺔ‬''‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻣﻳﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ، 2
Nécessité d’une stratégie autour de 2 piliers prenant en compte
toutes les catégories d’acteurs, y compris les plus fragiles
3 ‫ﻧﺟﺎﺣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﺎﻧﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺟﻣﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﻣﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻋﺗﻣﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﻳﺞ‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ‬ 3
Nécessité d’une stratégie autour de 2 piliers prenant en compte
toutes les catégories d’acteurs, y compris les plus fragiles
3 ‫ﻋﻣﻭﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺎﺣﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺷﺟﻳﻊ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ 4
Nécessité d’une stratégie autour de 2 piliers prenant en compte
toutes les catégories d’acteurs, y compris les plus fragiles
3 ''‫ﻓﺭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺑﻌﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬''‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻌﺯﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺑﺭﺍﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﻓﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ 6
Nécessité d’une stratégie autour de 2 piliers prenant en compte
toutes les catégories d’acteurs, y compris les plus fragiles
3 ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻣﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﻹﻧﺟﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎﻗﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﺍﻏﻣﺎﺗﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺗﻣﺎﺩ‬1000‫ﻭ‬1500‫ﺗﻧﻣﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ 5
23 - 25 / 2 / 2009
‫ﺩﻣﺷﻕ‬–‫ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻬﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬

14. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 14
‫ﺭﺋﻳﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺣﻔﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺭﻓﺎﻩ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺻﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﻼﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﻭﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺧﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬/‫ﻋﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺣﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺻﺭﻧﺔ‬‫ﺍﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺣﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬

15. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬:
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻠﻕ‬
/‫ﻋﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻁﻭﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﺳﺑﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺗﻔﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺈﺣﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻌﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬700‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬900‫ﺗﺟﻣﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺧﻠﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬
‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺫﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺟﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺩﺑﻳﺭﻳﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‬110‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬150‫ﻣﻠﻳﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻫﻡ‬10‫ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬

16. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010
‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬:‫ﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺣﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‬15‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬20‫ﻣﻠﻳﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻫﻡ‬10‫ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﺛﻣﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺑﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺳﻭﻳﻕ‬
‫ﻏﻳﺗﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻳﻠﻳﻧﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﺻﻧﺩﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺩﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺛﻳﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﻭﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬300‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬400‫ﺳﻳﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬
16‫ﺟﻬﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺧﻁﻁﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬

17. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 17
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎء‬ ‫ﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺧﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻭﻓﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻳﻧﺩﺭﺝ‬.
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻧﻘﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬550‫ﻫﻛﺗﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻑ‬‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬10‫ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‬.‫ﻳﺳﻣﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻭﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﻳﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‬.‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻧﻘﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻱ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻁﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﺑﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻳﻭﻓﺭ‬40‫ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ٪2800‫ﻡ‬3‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻬﻛﺗﺎﺭ‬.
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺧﺻﻭﺻﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻔﺎﻅ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺧﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﺑﺎﺩﺉ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻣﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺕ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺛﻧﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬‫ﻭﻁﻧﺟﺔ‬‫ﺗﻁﻭﺍﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺧﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ،
‫ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻳﺔ‬.

18. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 18
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺃﺕ‬1998‫ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻧﻔﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬.
‫ﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﺭﺍﺋﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻬﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﺟﺯ‬6‫ﺍﻟﺑﻌﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻛﺗﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﻳﻳﻥ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻬﺩﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻳﻕ‬)‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺎﻩ‬(‫ﺍﻟﺑﻼﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬.‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺷﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺣﻔﺎﻅ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ‬/‫ﺍﻹﻋﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬.‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺯﺍﺭﻋﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺎﻋﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺭﺑﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻘﻧﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻫﻡ‬
‫ﺃﺟﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺭﺳﺎء‬ ، ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺣﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺩﺍﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬.

19. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 19
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬

20. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 20
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻐﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺍﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﺟﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺩﻑ‬
300‫ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺭﺟﺢ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻘﻠﻳﺹ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﻼﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻔﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ،ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻳﻭﻥ‬.‫ﺳﻳﻘﻭﻡ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺄﻫﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺛﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﻣﻭﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬55000‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺗﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﺟﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻛﺗﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺎﺻﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺳﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻳﻥ‬12000‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﻛﺗﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﻘﻳﺔ‬.
‫ﻟﻠﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎء‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﻌﻣﻠﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻐﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﻌﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺭﻣﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎء‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ،‫ﻣﻧﺧﻔﺿﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺑﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺗﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺟﻔﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺍﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﺟﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺗﻭﺝ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺗﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﺟﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺳﺎﻋﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﻘﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬43000‫ﻫﻛﺗﺎﺭ‬.
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺍﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﺟﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬
Morocco millenium challenge account

21. Consultation meeting on “the impacts of climate change on water resources, drought and population mobility”
Republic of Syria, on 15-16 of September 2010 21
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