Elusine caracana, Setaria italic (L.), Triticum aestivum are highly potential dryland cereal crops that need to promoted with special interventions. Some humanitarian agencies with support of Government of Nepal have been playing an important role in reducing the impact of food deficiency in the region.

1. Food security in the context of Climate
Change in Martadi VDC of Bajura
district (FWDR), Nepal
By Basudev Upadhyay
Registration No: 5-2-37-790-2002
College of Applied sciences - Nepal
M.Sc. 63/64
Roll No 525

2. Introduction
Background information/Research need
Poor self sufficiency (Deficit by 12,935 Mt. in 2011) (CBS 2011)
Average income – Rs 3,428 per month (CBS 2011)
Approx. 92,700 people out of a district total of 123,400 are
classified as highly or severely food insecure (NeKSAP 2009)
Availability and Requirement of Cereals (Mt.) (MoAC 2011)
Total edible prod – 9825; Requirement – 22760; Deficit – 12935
Transportations is poorly developed
No intensive studies have been carried out in the area of
interest
No climatic data available
Migrations (poverty induced, seasonal)
Calorie consumption for Bajura: 1628 kcal/person/day (MoAC
2010)

3. Introduction…
Specific Research Questions
What is Food Security in Nepalese context?
Who is food insecure in the far western region?
Why are they food insecure?
How is the situation likely to evolve and what are the Risks threatening them?
How have the climate change affected the food security situation in the district?
What will be the future scenario of agricultural productivity with the existing climatic conditions?
How have the locals been coping with food insecure situation?
What are the government, non-government and other agencies’ interventions to overcome the
food security situation?
What can be done to save their lives and livelihoods in food insecure situation?

4. Introduction…
Objectives
To understand the food security situation in Martadi VDC of Bajura district of
far western region, Nepal.
To know the climate change impacts on agriculture and agricultural
productions.
To explore the possible adaptation measures in agriculture and livelihood of
people.
To analyze the interventions of the government, non government and
community organizations in coping food insecure situation.

5. Methodology
Study area maps
 Literature Reviews
 Socio-economic surveys
Household Questionnaire surveys
 Sampling:
Sample size (n) = N*z2*P (1-P)/N*d2 + z2*P (1-P) (Arkin and Colton
1963)
N = Total number of households (1109)
z = value of standard variate at 95% confidence level (1.96)
P = estimated population proportion (0.05)
d = error limit of 5% (0.05)
Hence, Sample size (n) = 69 Map of the district (Not to scale) Digital Himalaya
Sampling Design = n/N *100
n=sample households in the specific village cluster
N = total no. of households in the entire study area
Village Martadi Ukhadi Kabalta Chaurata Total
clusters
TotalHH 757 89 100 162 1109
Samples 47 6 7 10 69
 Stakeholders consultations
 Field Observations
 Analysis/Writing
Zoom in Map of Martadi VDC
(Imported from google earth on 1st Feb 2012)

6. Result and Discussions
Peoples perceptions
Response to Income Level Response to Occupations
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
13%
50.0% 1%
37%
40.0% 16%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0% 32%
0.0%
Agricultu Livestoc Remitan
Services Business Others
re k ce
<5000 34.5% 38.2% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 1.8% Crop farming Livestock
5000-15000 67.3% 20.9% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 5.5% Service Overseas employment
>15000 7.3% 0.0% 58.2% 20.0% 4.5% 10.9% Others
<5000 5000-15000 >15000

7. People’s perceptions…
Landholding sizes
37.3%
30.9%
22.7%
7.3%
1.9%
< 10 Ropani 10-20 Ropani 20-25 Ropani > 25 Ropani Landless
Landholdings
Food Sufficiency
39.4%
28.1%
11.1%
7.0% 8.5%
5.9%
Landless 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months Others
Food Sufficiency

8. Peoples perceptions…
Response to state of climate change awareness
No
Yes Reason for decrease in production
43%
57%
41.9%
Yes No
27.9%
20.2%
Response to Impact on crop farming
13.2%
12.7%
48.2%
10.1%
39.1%
Disease/pests Lack of Lack of quality Lack of Don't know
Irrigation Seed grains Fertilizers
Decreasing Increasing No significance

9. People’s perceptions…
Forest status over the years
49.8%
35.6%
14.5%
Degraded Improved No change
Forest Status
Forest utility
41.0% 38.2%
9.0% 11.8%
Firewood Fodder and Medicinal Others
Grass herbs
Purpose of forest use

10. People’s perceptions…
Response to climatic parameters
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Increased Decreased No Change Don' know Irrigular
Temperature 44.5% 2.7% 23.6% 10.9% 18.2%
Precipitation 18.2% 39.1% 18.2% 12.7% 11.8%
Snowfall 0.0% 66.4% 2.7% 13.6% 17.3%

11. People’s perceptions…
Source of water for irrigation Disaster types
33.1% 37.8% 34.8%
18.1% 24.7%
11.0% 17.7%
13.6%
9.1%
River water Rain water Sprins and Others
wells
Drought Flood Landslide Soil erosion others
Source of water for Irrigation
Disaster types

12. People’s perceptions…
Resilience measures
29.1%
21.8%
10.0% 10.0% 10.9% 12.7%
3.6% 1.8%
Support Selling Loan Support Migrate Remittance Off-farm No
from livestock from response
Gos/NGOs neighbour
Resilience measures
Preventions measures
Climate induced disaster
44.1% 55.8%
24.5%
16.2%
9.8%
5.4% 19.2%
11.7% 13.3%
Terraces Mixed Retaining No Quit
farming wall measures agriculture
taken practice Drinking water Agriculture Infrastructure No impact
Preventive measures Climate induced disaster

13. Adaptation and Mitigation Techniques in Practice
Traditional Practices -
 Terraces
 shortening weeding calendar
 dry leaves spreading and reaping after sawing seed
 Burning
 offering Puja
 Scare crow
 Mulching
 Mixed – ( inter ) cropping
 Keeping the land fallow for sometimes
 Use of plant indigenous materials (Titepati, Khirro, ashuro, Dhangari..
 Planting trees , using stone dykes to prevent extreme case of flooding
 Fodder collection during August, September, and October
 small ditches are constructed to cope water needs,
Modified techniques –
 plastic sheet cover over seedling, support sticks to prevent crops from falling, making greenhouse , hybrid
seeds..

14. District Stats
Land-use change through 1986 – 2010 Source: NLS 2011 Expenditure of Govt. (Million)
Source: ESD 2006/07
200000
3500
150000 3000
2500
100000 2000
1500
50000
1000
0 500
Cultivated Land Grass Lands Forests Shrubs/Bushes Others 0
Agriculture Irrigation Forest
Area (ha) 1986 Area (ha) 2001 Area (ha) 2006 Land Cover 2010
Current Capital Total
Foreign Aid Distribution in Bajura
Investment comparison (‘000) Source: ESD 2006/07 (Million) Source: ESD 2006/07
1600
Investment in the country Investment in Bajura 1400
6000000 5000 1200
5000000 4000 1000
4000000 3000
3000000 800
2000000 2000
1000 600
1000000
0 0 400
200
0
Agriculture Irrigation Forest
Grant Loan Total

15. Precipitation in Bajura 1990 – 2010
Source: DHM 2011
28
Hundreds
y = -16.74x + 35541
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Total Annual 3 years moving mean Mean Linear (Total Annual) Linear (3 years moving mean)
Rainfall is decreasing with the decrease in total rainy days.

16. Temperature 2010 (DHM 2011)
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tmax( ) Tmin() Mean
Seasonal breakdown of temperature
Annual mean Annual max Annual min Pre- Monsoon Monsoon Post- Winter
monsoon
17.8 24.4 6.6 18.63 17.45 19.4 17.73

17. Discharge Analysis
120
y = -2.579x + 5246.
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual Mean discharge Mean
Average3 yr moving mean Linear (Annual Mean discharge)

18. Government and stakeholder interventions
• NFC distributes cereals at subsidized prices delivers emergency food relief to
communities that have been affected by natural disasters.
• The World Bank and the ADB are the principal multilateral donors (poverty
alleviation interventions: food/cash-for-assets (F/CFA) .
• DFID is working especially in helping make the APP more pro-poor: DoLIDAR road
project.
• WFP works with government to improve food access for the disadvantaged, including
mothers and babies, Schoolchildren, refugees!
• WUPAP – joint endeavor between GoN and IFAD – poverty alleviation (phase 1: Jan
2003)
• local stakeholders playing notable roles - DAO, GIFT Bajura, MISS
Bajura, SAPROS, DRSP etc.)

19. Conclusions and Recommendations
Agricultural Land-use Change
 land is not so productive – near by pastures and forests
being cleared – khets decreasing, Pakho bari increasing
 irrigated soil washed away due to monsoon rain and
flood
 Increased barren lands due to construction of
agriculture road
Crop Farming and Food Sufficiency
 Each household practiced farming along with livestock
raring
 Not a single irrigation canal exists
 Winter crops have high potential
 The main source of every day diet is bread
 Slight shift in the plantation and harvesting time

20. Conclusions and Recommendations…
Adaptation Measures
 Planting trees
 Constructing river embankments and stone dykes
 Terraces of different forms,
 Crop rotation
 Inter cropping
 Mixed cropping
 Use of high yielding variety seeds
 Maintaining seed storages

21. Conclusions and Recommendations…
Climate change and food security
•Erratic climatic patterns - Rainfall is decreasing with the
decrease in total rainy days.
•Natural disasters - deteriorating food security situation
(Lack of early warning system and preparedness to
disaster)
• Decreasing productivity – increasing food deficiency
•Several traditional adaptive techniques are practiced to
overcome climate induced disasters.. Should be
accompanied with modern techniques and improvised..
Recommendations
• Further research on impact of climate change on
specific crops
• Promotion of bread yielding and dry land crops
(millet, maize, potato wheat and vegetables..)
• Irrigations
• Create Emergency preparedness stocks (e.g. micro-
irrigation equipment; pipe/sprinkler irrigation and cash
crop seeds)
• Community seed production
• Need to increase the supply quota by NFC

22. Changes high in the mountains affect availability of resources
downstream