Presented during the U.S.-ASEAN VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY WORKSHOP, 13 May 2013, Jakarta-Indonesia.

1. U.S.-ASEAN VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY WORKSHOP
13 May 2013
Jakarta – Indonesia
With the Support of
ASEAN-US Technical Assistance & Training Facility

2. Session: Introduction
Title: Present and Projected Transportation
Sector Energy Demands in ASEAN
Speaker: Beni Suryadi
ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)

3. Content of Presentation:
1. ASEAN Energy Outlook 2030
2. Transportation Sector Energy Demands
3. Potential Mitigation Action in Transport
Sector

4. 1. ASEAN Energy Outlook 2030*
*Source: ACE & IEEJ. (2011). The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook

5. 5
Primary Energy Consumption
BAU: Total primary energy consumption increased from 339 MTOE in 1995 to 511 MTOE in 2007
or 3.6% per annum, and will growth 4.5% per year from 2007 to reach 1,414 MTOE in 2030.

6. 6
Final Energy Consumption
Increased at an annual rate of 3.8% from 241 MTOE in 1995 to 375 MTOE in 2007, growth 4.4%
per year from 375 MTOE in 2007 to 1,018 MTOE in 2030, driven by fast growth of transport
sector and increasing per capita income.

7. 7
CO2 Emission
High annual escalation of demand for Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, will drive CO2
emission growth at 5.7% per year.

8. 8
Raised Concerns
Raised Concerns to the "Energy Security" of ASEAN and global
"Environmental Stability":
 ASEAN will continue to be heavily dependent on fossil fuels
especially oil in the future.
 The rapid growth of electricity demand will also be a driving force in
increasing use of fossil fuels especially coal.
 ASEAN needs to improve the energy investment climate so that it
will become more conducive to investors.
 ASEAN should also continue to strengthen regional cooperation
especially in sharing best practices in energy development and
utilization including energy efficiency.

9. 9
Findings and Policy Implications
 As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals,
primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in ASEAN will
increase almost three folds in the BaU scenario – there will be
increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental
stability.
 If current energy production levels in the region do not increase –
the region will have to source out this additional demand from
outside the region.
 Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low-
carbon technologies and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in
power generation – would be needed to reduce carbon intensity
and enhance energy security.

10. 2. Transport Sector Energy Demands

11. 11
FEC Transport Sector
Under Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), ASEAN is only able to reduce the growth of energy
demands in Transportation sector as 4.4% from 5.6% under Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario.

12. 12
Potential Demand Reduction
Under Alternative Policy Scenario, major countries such as Indonesia is able to reduce 24%
energy demands in Transport Sector, Malaysia 42% and Thailand 40%.

13. 3. Potential Mitigation Action*
*Source: GIZ-SUTIP. Transport and Climate Change in Transport Sector. ESSPA Workshop. Jakarta, 9-2-2012

14. 14
Three Basic Routes
 The three basic routes to improve energy efficiency*:
SHIFT
Shift to more environmentally
friendly modes
• Transport Demand
Management
• Mode shift to Non-
Motorized Transport
• Mode shift to Public
Transport
• …
AVOID
Avoid travel
or the need to travel
• Integration of transport
and land-use planning
• Smart logistics concepts
• …
IMPROVE
Improve the energy efficiency of
transport modes and vehicle
technology
• Low-friction lubricants
• Optimal tire pressure
• Low Rolling Resistance Tires
• Speed limits Eco-Driving
(Raising Awareness)
• Shift to alternative fuels
• …
1 2 3

15. 15
Sample of Mitigation
Traffic generation & Carbon emissions:
What aspects should we concentrate on?
Example: Shopping
Starting point:
A household
requires a wide
range of goods,
with varying
frequency.
First decision:
How far do you
have to go?
2 km
10 km
?
Second decision:
Which mode of
transport will you
(have to) use?
?
?
Third decision:
Which type
of vehicle + use?
Smart infrastructure
planning: Reduces
need for travelling!
AVOID
Reduce car
size and consider
using
alternative fuels!
IMPROVE
Encourage use of
non-motorized and
public transport!
SHIFT
1
2
3

16. 16
Proposed Transport Measures
2010: 26 out if 43 countries submitted their proposed Transport measures in NAMA submission
to UNFCC Secretariat.

17. THANK YOU