The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (public edition)

The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook

The Context:
ASEAN grows fast, large demand on energy

 The world economy is moving from a post-crisis bounce-back
phase of the recovery to slower but Southeast Asia move
faster – how does it affect global demand growth?
 Energy Efficiency is the most effective way of meeting future
demand - but are the current plans effective enough?
 Coal and Natural gas production are greater than current
consumption – but are they enough for future demand?
 Vietnam will join Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand dominate
the regional energy future – but where will their policy
decisions lead us?

©ACE, February 2011

The 3rd Outlook:
Energy Efficiency as Alternative Scenario

 The 1st on 2007,The 2nd on 2009, The 3rd on 2011
 Joint output by ACE, IEEJ, and National ESSPA Teams
 Two (2) Scenarios:
1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario
Base on GDP Growth Targets of the 10 Member States
2. Alternative Policy Scenario
Base on Energy Saving Goals and Action Plans of 10
Member States in primary energy demand and CO2
emissions


Socio Assumption:
GPD and Population Growth Rate*
Country GDP Pop Growth  GDP Projections is
Brunei Darussalam 2.6% 2.1% slightly lower than on
Cambodia 6.9% 1.3% the previous outlook
Indonesia 6.3% 1.1% due to global
Lao PDR 7.5% 1.7% economic crisis, but
Malaysia 5.0% 1.6% ASEAN keep going
Myanmar 9.0% 1.7% above the world
Philippines 4.9% 1.4% average
Singapore 3.9% 0.7%
Thailand 4.1% 0.3%
Vietnam 7.5% 0.9%
ASEAN 5.2% 1.1% *Source: 10 ASEAN Member States


Oil Price Assumption:
Base on Japan CIF

The world is facing the high oil price, double than today in 2030


Alternative Policy Scenario:
1. EE&C Targets
Brunei Darussalam 25% EI from 2005 level by 2030

Cambodia 10% TFEC all sector

Indonesia 1%/year TFEC from BaU

Lao PDR 10% TFEC all sector

Malaysia 10% TFEC Industrial, Commercial and Residential from 2011 to 2030
1.39 ktoe TFEC Transportation by 2030
Myanmar 5% TPEC by 2020 and 8% by 2030 compare to BaU
Improve 16% Energy Efficiency in all end-use
Philippines 10% TFEC all sector

Singapore 20% EI by 2020 and 35% by 2030 from 2005 level
Cap 63 Mt-CO2 by 2020
Thailand 25% total energy by 2030 compare to BaU

Vietnam 3%-5% TFEC by 2010 and 5%-8% by 2010-2015


2. RE and Biofuels Targets
Brunei Darussalam 10 MV PV by 2030 No target

Cambodia 1.5 MV PV, 87 kW Biomass, 500 kW Micro-hydro No target

Indonesia Energy Mix by 2025: 5% Geothermal, 2.6% hydro, +5% biofuels
0.03% wind, 0.74% biomass
Lao PDR Hydro project No target

Malaysia By 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 5% for road transport
MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal
Solid Waste
Myanmar 15%-20% RE in Electricity Generating 8% for road transport

Philippines New by 2030: 1,500 MW Geothermal, 2,100 MW Displace 15% of diesel and
Hydro, 950 MW, 71 MW PV, 102 MW Biomass 20% of gasoline
Singapore 5% PV in Energy Mix No targets

Thailand 6,329 MW of RE 12.2% for transport

Vietnam By 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Hydro, 400 MW No targets
Biomass


3. Nuclear Energy Targets
Brunei Darussalam No target

Cambodia No target

Indonesia 1.4% nuclear of energy mix by 2025

Lao PDR No target

Malaysia 2,000 MW by 2023

Myanmar No target

Philippines 2,000 MW by 2025

Singapore No target

Thailand Develop 5,000 MW from 2020 to 2028

Vietnam 1,000 MW by 2020, increase to 10,1000 MW by 2030


Final Energy Consumption:
By Sector

Grow at an annual rate of 4.4% from 2007 to 2030 reaching almost 1,018 MTOE in
BaU, with the transport sector as the fasted, driven by the increasing per capita
income. But, in APS, grow at a lower annual rate of 3.6% with the total potential
saving will be around 17.2%

Final Energy Consumption:
By Fuel Type

Oil will remains as the most used fuel ≈ 45% share by 2030, both in BaU and APS.
But, applying APS, there are 18.6% saving potential for oil, 20.3% coal, 17.4%
electricity , and 12.6% natural gas.


Primary Energy Supply:
RE shines, but Fossil Fuels stay dominant

Coal keeps growing as the highest, driven by the demand increase in Industry and
Power Generation, but Transport will brings Oil stay dominant. Geothermal rise
in Indonesia and Philippines, hydropower in Great Mekong, and Nuclear in
Thailand and Vietnam. APS can reduce 18.5% from BaU by 2030.

Power Generation:
Coal and Gas will continue to form bulk of supply

Projected to increase 4x by 2030 with Coal and Gas will continue as the backbone of
regional electricity generation. Oil share will decrease significantly due to
diversification program for alternative fuels and renewable portfolio standard
implemented.

CO2 Emission:
High Growth, ASEAN should reduce a lot

High annual escalation of Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, driven the high
projection CO2 emission growth (5.7% per year). Applying APS can reduce about
697 Mt-C, 24% lower than 895Mt-C in BaU.


Energy Intensity:
Increase regional living standard

Improvement in fuel mix where natural gas comes more dominant as the feedstock
for power generation and improvements in energy efficiency, bring EI decrease
almost 50% by 2030 (APS). Advanced economies with high living standards have
relatively increase energy use per population to at 3.4% per year (BaU)

Country Energy Share:
Vietnam will join dominate energy future

The share of Indonesia’s primary energy supply is decreased during 1990 to 2007 due
to the rapid increase of the requirement of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.
But by 2030, as experience and still projected to has high economic growth,
Vietnam will join as dominant with annual growth rate of 6.3%.

Energy Efficiency:
Recent plans, would make a difference but need more

Energy saving goals set by the government of the 10 ASEAN Member States; energy
efficiency and conservation, renewable energy including biofuels and nuclear,
would able to reduce final energy consumption. Effectively apply in Indonesia:
reduce 25%, Thailand 22%, Malaysia 21% and Brunei 20%.

Renewable Energy:
Rise but not fast enough

Although the number of Others (covers mostly biomass use by the final sector and
supply of renewable energy such as bio-fuels, wind, solar, etc)is keep rising, but
it will have a slower growth rate of 1.7% per annum. By 2030, its predicted only
13.4% share in Total Primary Energy Consumption, compare 23.5% in 2007.

Implications:
Challenge facing energy security

 As member countries continue to pursue their economic
goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission
(dominant oil, gas and coal) in region will increase three
folds – increasing pressure on energy security and global
environmental stability.
 If current levels of energy production do not increase –
region will have to source out from outside.
 Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs,
low emission technology, and increased shares of non-fossil
fuels in Power Generation – reduce carbon intensity and
contribute to energy security.


Policy Recommendations:
Regional stands facing energy security

 Encourage more aggressive energy efficiency and
conservation measures i.e modal shift in transportation
sector, high efficient clean coal technology, CDM projects,
etc.
 Formulating mechanisms/regulations to remove subsidies to
fossil fuel energy and provision of incentives to encourage
further development of renewable energy, hydrocarbon
resource potential as well as nuclear energy.
 Establishing energy management systems and energy
efficiency standards.
 Strengthening regional cooperation especially in sharing best
practices in energy development and utilization.


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