1. Shell Global Solutions
The Future of Transportation Fuels
Colin Chin
22nd November 2006, Jakarta
The 1st Indonesia Fuel and Lubes Conference and Exhibition 2006
3. Challenges of increased mobility
• ‘Sustainable mobility’ - maintaining mobility while reducing local and
global environmental impacts
• Economic and social sustainability criteria also need to be met
• Consumer acceptance a challenge.
changes to automotive technology and fuels are required to meet
sustainability challenges
4. Global Issues & EU Vehicle/Fuel responses
0.16
0.14
Environmental Technology 0.14
issue issue
PM (g/km)
0.12
1992 Euro Acid rain Lower SOx 0.1
0.08
1 0.08
0.06 0.05
1996 Euro Acid Rain Lower SOx 0.04 0.025
2 0.02
2000 Euro Ozone NOx/HC 0
Pre Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5
3 Euro 1
10000 5000 First Better
Diesel Sulphur (ppm,w)
2005 Euro Ozone NOx 2000 Oxycats Oxycats
4 Particles Lower PM 1000 500 Ce traps
350
Global warming
CRT
100 50 Ba NOx
2008/20 Euro Ozone/NOx NOx Particle
traps
09 5 Particle no. mass & no. 10
10
Global Warming
2012/20 Euro Global Warming ? 1
13 6 ? Pre 1992 1996 2000 2005 2008/9
1992
5. In many developed markets, significant progress has already been
made reducing local emissions.
140
Emissions, % of 1995 lev
120 CO
CO2
100 NOx
PM-diesel
80
VOC
60 Focus is shifting to
Benzene
… due to Greenhouse Gases
40 improvements in SO2 (GHG)
conventional vehicles
20 and fuels CO2 (global warming)
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source : European Commission
Future challenge: reduce CO2 while maintaining low regulated emissions
6. There is no single Future Fuels Solution
• The next 20-30 years will see a wider range of vehicle technologies
and fuel types, especially in developed markets
% of New cars
100 LPG/CNG
90
80 Diesel (inc Bio-diesel/GTL)
70
60 a view of the future -
50 Hybrid not a forecast
40 Gasoline (inc Ethanol)
30
20 Naphtha/Methanol
10 Hydrogen
0
2000 2010 2020
conventional liquid fuels will continue to dominate for a long time to come
7. Improved Fuels enable more Efficient and lower Emissions Engine
Technologies
Toyota, GM,
Honda, DaimlerChrysler
Subaru
Fuel Cell
Purchase/maintenance
Vehicles
Hybrid Diesel
Engines Daimler/Chrysler,
d
r en VW/Audi,
g yT Peugeot/Citroen
HCCI Engine
olo
costs
hn
Hybrid T ec
Gasoline Highly Optimized
Engines Diesel Engines
Diesel Engine
Direct Injection
Gasoline Gasoline Engine
Engine Mitsubishi
VW/Audi
Thermodynamic Efficiency/Reduced
Emissions
9. More than 50 years of diesel fuel innovation
Shell’s international experience in the area
of fuel development and is well recognized
as being of World Class standard
Shell & Audi made history
being the first to win 24hrs
LeMans race with a diesel
car powered by Shell V-
Power Diesel.
10. Shell Diesel – Performance in a DI Diesel
Deposits controlled Deposits built up
Scanning electron micrographs of direct injection light duty fuel
injector holes showing lower deposits with detergent fuel (applicable
to modern light vehicles, taxis and passenger cars)
11. The effect of dirty fuel on injection equipment is clearly and quickly visible
Comparison of DI injector cleanliness
Clean fuel Dirty fuel
13. Higher Octane for better efficiency
• Octane quality is still the most important fuel property for gasoline
engines.
• Performance, economy and CO2 emissions would all benefit from
higher octane quality for modern engines.
• Most engine designers outside North America would like to see higher
octane fuels, but with no increase in aromatics, olefins or use of
alcohols.
• There are substantial performance benefits in many vehicles from
operating on high octane (98 RON or higher) fuels.
• The most recent “Optimum Octane” studies show that the optimum has
increased, and the refining energy and CO2 penalties from higher
octane fuels are small (though the cost may be substantial).
14. Higher Octane to reduce vehicle CO emissions
40.00
98/86.9 • Higher RON gives
more power and fuel
39.00 95.6/85.8
efficiency because of
Average Power at the wheels, kW
98.2/94.7
38.00
better anti-knock
90.2/81.4
quality.
37.00
36.00
• 37 European and
35.00 91.1/89.7 Japanese SI cars
tested so far.
34.00
33.00
• Future engines will
32.00 require high RON
85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 gasoline.
OI=2.1RON -1.1MON
15. Higher Octane protects Engines
Damage caused by insufficient Octane
Damage starts at edge
of piston furthest from
sparkplug
High heat transfer to
the piston can cause
local melting and
burning
leading to catastrophic
engine failure
16. Clean Engines for low Emissions and optimum Performance
• Clean inlet valves allow better flow of air and fuel into the combustion
chamber
• This optimizes engine power
Clean valve
• Reduces fuel wastage
• Improves fuel efficiency
• Makes engines run smoother
• Reduces emissions
DIRTY valve
18. Overview of bio-components
Sweet corn Rapeseed
Sugar beet Food crops Soya
wheat
1st generation Sunflower
Et s
ha t er
no - es
l io
B
Gasoline ol Bi Diesel
h an o-
d
t ie
o-e s el
Ec advanced
biofuels BTL
Enzymatic hydrolysis Waste Conversion
Eco-ethanol ®
• Shell is the largest blender of 1st generation transport bio-fuels.
• Commercial 2nd generation bio-fuels plants are under construction
20. Common FAMEs
RME (Europe) – rapeseed methyl ester
•approx. 2 million diesel vehicles now use RME and RME blends
•key producers: France (RME-5) & Italy, Germany & Austria (RME-
100)
SME (USA)
- soy methyl ester
•use increasing since
registered with EPA
•mostly SME-100 and SME-
20
POME + CME (Far East)
-palm oil / coconut methyl esters
-trials
and research underway for use of POME in
Malaysia & Thailand and CME in Philippines
21. The Impact of FAMEs on vehicle performance
negligible impact for 5% blends
re-fuelling times
& foaming
similar to AGO
fuel consumption less visible smoke
increases up to exhaust odour OK
20% (up to 30%)
with FAME-100
fuel additive compatibility – material compatibility – in
increased deposits ? some older vehicles
reduced acceleration &
lower average speed
for FAME-100
23. The Impact of Ethanol (EtOH) on vehicle performance
negligible impact for 5% blends
fuel consumption No impact on
Increases 3% with emissions with
10% EtOH 3-way catalyst
fuel additive compatibility – material compatibility – in
increased deposits ? some older vehicles
Drivability concerns
engine tuning with
>20% required
24. Ethanol from non-food sources: IOGEN
Simplified Process Enzyme production
enzymes Standard bio-ethanol production steps
Straw Pre-treatment Hydrolysis Fermentation Distillation
- hemi-cellulose Lignin C5+C6 sugars ethanol
- cellulose
- lignin Steam generation
ethanol/gasoline blends
www.bio-fuels.dk
Use non-food biomass to produce
ethanol for blending into conventional
gasoline
Iogen’s EcoEthanolTM facility in Ottawa, to reduce CO2 emissions
Canada
25. Bio-Fuels are Reality
• Shell has successfully implemented
“Gasohol” in Thailand.
• “Gasohol” is a blend made from 10% Ethanol
and 90% gasoline
• “Gasohol” has a tax advantage resulting in
7% lower retail price.
• Current market share of “Gasohol” is about
50% of Thai ULG95 market
27. XTL – Synthetic fuel from gas, coal and biomass
• Synthetic fuel refers to liquids from gas (GTL), coal (CTL) and biomass
(BTL)
• Products from gas, coal and biomass are identical
• Flexible feedstock options (e.g. coal and biomass co-firing)
GTL
Shell
Natural Gasification
Gas Process
BTL
Gasifier
Biomass Syngas
CTL
Fischer-Tropsch process Identical Products
Shell Coal
Coal Gasification
Process
28. Comparison of Energy Cycles
1 year 24 hours
Plant growth thru Sustainable Source
Biomass
Carbo-V ® Process
photosynthesis
Energy Source
The Sun
Plant growth thru Formation of fossil Exploration of fossil Traditional fuels
photosynthesis energy sources energy sources Gasoline / Diesel
400 million years
Following nature‘s practice – but much faster!
30. CNG and LPG have been advocated as clean alternatives, but
attractiveness reduces as gasoline & diesel quality improves
• CNG • LPG
• Low Sulphur => low PM, NOx & • Lower sulphur => PM, NOx and
SOx SOx
• Can substitute oil imports • Overall emissions similar to
• Expensive infrastructure CNG
• Bulky on-board storage • Infrastructure costs lower than
CNG
• Shell companies retail CNG in
countries like Argentina, • Less bulky storage
Pakistan. • Supplied by Shell in many
• Longer term, GTL diesel offers markets for both fleet and
same advantages at lower private motorist,
infrastructure costs. • LPG fuel quality is better
controlled than CNG.
CNG & LPG have potential as a niche fuel where conventional fuel
is a laggard in addressing urban pollution.
31. All options can meet E4 PM2.5 emission standards as existing E2 diesel taxi is
being replaced progressively Clean as Gas Engines
Diesel Engines become as
Emission Benefits E2 vs. E4 Options
120.00%
PM
NOx
100.00%
HC
CO
80.00%
Emissions
60.00%
Euro IV PM Limit
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Diesel EU2 Diesel EU4 (no DPF) Diesel EU4 (DPF) CNG EU3 / 4 LPG EU4
Vehicle Options
32. Hydrogen
• Shell is actively involved in hydrogen demonstration projects all around
the world
• Operates hydrogen filling stations in Europe, the US and Japan,
with plans to build more in the US and China
• However there are many challenges to be overcome before hydrogen
can be commercially viable on a large scale
• Cost and performance of fuel cells
• Onboard hydrogen storage capacity
• Improvements in sustainable hydrogen
production
• Consistency in regulations and
standards
• Financial costs of infrastructure
• Social acceptance
34. Low Green House Gas emissions are the target for the future
Need for a Well-to-Wheels approach
• Systematic approach
• Assessment of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
Well
Well-to-Tank
Wheel
35. Better
G
as
G ol
in
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
as
e
g CO2/mile
ol
in D
ie ICE
e se
Fu l
el IC
N D C E
ap ie el
ht se l H
ha lI
C EV
Fu E
H
Petroleum
el
C EV
FT el
D l HE
ie
se V
FT lI
N C
ap CN E
Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gases
h G
Li tha IC
M qu E
et id FC
ha
no H2 HE
V
G l Fu FC
as H
eo el C E
us el V
Natural Gas
H l HE
El
ec 2
FC V
tr
ol H
ys E- EV
Et
ha is H 85
no 2 IC
lF FC E
ue HE
lC V
el
lH
EV
Electricity
Renewable/
HEV – hybrid electrical vehicle
ICE- internal combustion engine
36. WTW Analysis of RME –
A Shell Global Solutions Study
W2W CO2 emissions (g/km) from Ford Focus 1.8 - Fossil diesel
and RME under different scenarios
250
200
CO2 g/km
150
100
50
0
Diesel Base Case RME base case RME base case + Land Conversion Importation
fertiliser N2O Scenario
Presented at World Bio-fuels Conference, Seville (April 2002)
37. Summary – Key Options for the future
local emissions global emissions
GTL bio-ethanol
Clean Diesel
short-to-mid
term Bio-Diesel
solutions LPG* (& BTL
(20 years) CNG*)
long-term
solutions Hydrogen*
(2020+) improvements
in
conventional
fuels &
vehicles
* require non-conventional vehicle technology
38. Shell’s Approach
• Quality cost-competitive conventional fuels
• Global leader in differentiated fuels
• Early leader in GTL
• OEM and technology partnerships
• Selling first generation bio-fuels today Le Mans car using GTL Fuel blend
• Proactively developing advanced bio-fuels
(including BTL)
• Preparing for longer term fuels (Hydrogen)
Ferrari F1 Partnership
40. Combustion engines remain the dominant form of propulsion for the next
20-30 years
Hydrogen Hydrogen
Hybrids 1% Hybrids
4%
24% 4%
IC Engines
75%
IC Engines
New car registrations USA 2030 92%
Source : ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
New car registrations Europe 2020
Source : EUCAR
