Part 7 interlaken finance class summer 2010 forum nexus

Class #7 Interlaken, switzerland

Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad. Guest lecturer with the IQS Business School of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the Catholic University of Milan . Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at Thunderbird’s Global MBA program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the Columbia Business School in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes at the university Faculdade Boa Viagem . A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America. [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler

Brian Butler is a specialist in international economic analysis, and is founder of the prestigious “GloboTrends“ ( www.globotrends.com ) online economics site, which has been featured as syndicated content on Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor, Emerginvest.com, Business Week Exchange, Wikinvest.com, and other leading news outlets. http:// globotrends.pbworks.com / , http:// blog.globotrends.com /

Find my slides: ,[object Object]

Lecture Schedule* * Does not include professional visits, *Subject to change, modification without warning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

European Map question – name 2 major Eastern European countries that are NOT part of the Eurozone, but have floating exchange rates. Name 2 that are fixed (but not part of the eurozone)?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_status_and_usage_of_the_euroment_of_the_eurozone Pegged (“fixed”) to the EURO

Free floating EU members – the rest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html

If you expect inflation (or hyper inflation) in the near future, would you save or spend today?

What is inflation? ,[object Object]

Inflation – why bad ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

On the other hand… ,[object Object]

Inflation = 2 nd biggest fear? ,[object Object]

Deflation http://futureproofkilkenny.org/?page_id=907

Review… ,[object Object],http://globotrends.pbworks.com/history-of-economic-crisis-and-currency-devaluations

Series of crises - Key event ,[object Object]

Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://globotrends.pbworks.com/history-of-economic-crisis-and-currency-devaluations

http://thebodegablog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/asean-map.gif

Question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”

Current account deficits = dangerous! ,[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”

Lesson: “Foreign capital is dangerous… so send it back!” ,[object Object],Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance, p56

Ok, but how? ,[object Object],[object Object]

Current Account / Capital Account ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Lessons… ,[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance, p40

Current Account: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Current Account ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Current Account Deficit ,[object Object]

Current Account Deficit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

From the book… ,[object Object],Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance

Country’s Balance Sheet: ,[object Object],[object Object]

National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”

National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”

National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”

What is a “current account deficit? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Group Question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object]

Answer… ,[object Object],[object Object]

Remember…Current Account: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

To cut a current account deficit: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Answer : ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Currency devaluation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Time to adjust ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Group assignment… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Follow up question: ,[object Object],[object Object]

http://thetruthorthefight.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/imf-trapping-countries-in-debt.jpg

Hedging problem (Account Payable ): fear = you will owe MORE than expected… ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Start studying for the exam now!! Find my slides: ,[object Object]

Team Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Group Project, “The Euro Zone – before, during and after the Global Economic Crisis”

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Group Project, “The Euro Zone – before, during and after the Global Economic Crisis”

Assigned Readings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Part 7 interlaken finance class summer 2010 forum nexus

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Part 7 interlaken finance class summer 2010 forum nexus