Maurizio Naldi: Cloud computing modelling and adoption
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Cloud computing modelling and adoption Maurizio Naldi, Universita di Roma Tor Vergata -session 4- International conference on “DATA, DIGITAL BUSINESS MODELS, CLOUD COMPUTING AND ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN” 24-25 November 2014 , Université Paris –Sud
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Maurizio Naldi: Cloud computing modelling and adoption
- 2. Cloud Computing modelling and adoption Maurizio Naldi Universit`a di Roma “Tor Vergata” DATA, DIGITAL BUSINESS MODELS, CLOUD COMPUTING AND ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN Paris · 24-25 November 2014
- 3. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 4. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 5. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 6. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 7. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 8. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 9. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 10. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 11. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 12. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 13. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 14. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 15. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 2/18 Introduction
- 16. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 3/18 In-house costs
- 17. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 4/18 Costs in the in-house solution
- 18. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 4/18 Costs in the in-house solution
- 19. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 4/18 Costs in the in-house solution
- 20. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 4/18 Costs in the in-house solution
- 21. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 4/18 Costs in the in-house solution
- 22. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 4/18 Costs in the in-house solution
- 23. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 5/18 Costs of outsourcing
- 24. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 6/18 Pricing models
- 25. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 6/18 Pricing models
- 26. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 6/18 Pricing models
- 27. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 6/18 Pricing models
- 28. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 6/18 Pricing models
- 29. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 7/18 Decision criteria
- 30. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 8/18 The evaluation approach
- 31. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 8/18 The evaluation approach
- 32. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 8/18 The evaluation approach
- 33. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 8/18 The evaluation approach -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 Differential NPV [$] 0 1x10-6 2x10-6 3x10-6 4x10-6ProbabilityDensityFunction
- 34. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 9/18 Decision criteria
- 35. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 9/18 Decision criteria
- 36. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 9/18 Decision criteria
- 37. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 9/18 Decision criteria
- 38. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 9/18 Decision criteria
- 39. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 9/18 Decision criteria
- 40. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 10/18 Errors
- 41. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 10/18 Errors
- 42. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis
- 43. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis
- 44. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis
- 45. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis
- 46. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis 0 5 10 15 20 Initial memory requirement [TB] 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Errorprobability Median Mean Decision criterion
- 47. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis 0 5 10 15 20 Initial memory requirement [TB] 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Errorprobability Median Mean Decision criterion 0 5 10 15 20 Initial memory requirement [TB] -2E5 0 2E5 4E5 Value-at-risk Median Mean Decision criterion
- 48. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 11/18 Risk analysis 0 5 10 15 20 Initial memory requirement [TB] 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Errorprobability Median Mean Decision criterion 0 5 10 15 20 Initial memory requirement [TB] -2E5 0 2E5 4E5 Value-at-risk Median Mean Decision criterion 0 5 10 15 20 Initial memory requirement [TB] -2E5 0 2E5 4E5 6E5 8E5 1E6 1.2E6 1.4E6 CVaR Median Mean Decision criterion
- 49. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 12/18 Risks after adoption
- 50. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 51. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 52. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 53. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 54. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 55. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 56. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 13/18 Fighting unavailability: a multicloud arrangement
- 57. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability
- 58. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability
- 59. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach
- 60. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach Exponential utility function ⇒ Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) property
- 61. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach Exponential utility function ⇒ Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) property Loss proportional to overall unavailability
- 62. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach Exponential utility function ⇒ Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) property Loss proportional to overall unavailability Markovian ON-OFF service model
- 63. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach Exponential utility function ⇒ Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) property Loss proportional to overall unavailability Markovian ON-OFF service model
- 64. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach Exponential utility function ⇒ Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) property Loss proportional to overall unavailability Markovian ON-OFF service model
- 65. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 14/18 Protection against unavailability An insurance scheme can be devised to cover the losses due to unavailability Premium computation using the expected utility approach Exponential utility function ⇒ Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) property Loss proportional to overall unavailability Markovian ON-OFF service model 1 2 3 4 Number of clouds 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Totalcost
- 66. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises
- 67. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises
- 68. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises
- 69. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises
- 70. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises
- 71. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises
- 72. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 15/18 Protection against price rises 0 1 2 3 4 5 Duration [years] 0 10 20 30 NormalizedPremium
- 73. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs
- 74. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs
- 75. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs
- 76. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs
- 77. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs
- 78. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs
- 79. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs 5 6 7 8 9 10 No. of years 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 InsurancePrice/DNPV 5 TB 10 TB Initial memory
- 80. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 16/18 Protection against overall costs 5 6 7 8 9 10 No. of years 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 InsurancePrice/DNPV 5 TB 10 TB Initial memory 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Error probability 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Price/DNPV 5 TB 10 TB Initial memory
- 81. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 17/18 References 1. Maurizio Naldi, Loretta Mastroeni. Economic decision criteria for the migration to cloud storage. European Journal of Information Systems, 2014. 2. Loretta Mastroeni, Maurizio Naldi. Pricing of insurance policies against cloud storage price rises. ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review, Volume 40 Issue 2, September 2012, pp. 42-45 3. Maurizio Naldi. Balancing Leasing and Insurance Costs to Achieve Total Protection in Cloud Storage Multi-Homing. 11h International Conference on the Economics of Grids, Clouds, Systems, and Services GECON 2014, Cardiff, UK, September 16-18, 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer. 4. Maurizio Naldi. Forecast Uncertainty in Procurement Decisions for Cloud Storage. 16th International Conference on Computer Modelling and Simulation UKSim 2013, Cambridge, March 26-28, 2014, pp. 237-242 5. Maurizio Naldi, Loretta Mastroeni. Cloud Storage Pricing: A Comparison of Current Practices. International Workshop on Hot Topics in Cloud HotTopiCS 2013 (4th International Conference on Performance Engineering), Prague, 20-21 April 2013, pp. 27-34 6. Maurizio Naldi. The availability of cloud-based services: is it living up to its promise ? 9th International Conference on Design of Reliable Communication Networks DRCN 2013, Budapest, Hungary, March 4-7, 2013, pp. 282-289 7. Loretta Mastroeni, Maurizio Naldi. Long-range Evaluation of Risk in the Migration to Cloud Storage. IEEE Conference on Commerce and Enterprise Computing CEC 2011, Luxembourg, 5-7 September 2011, pp. 260-266 8. Loretta Mastroeni, Maurizio Naldi. Storage Buy-or-Lease decisions in cloud computing under price uncertainty. 7th EURO-NGI Conference on Next Generation Internet NGI 2011, Kaiserslautern, Germany, 27-29 June 2011
- 82. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions
- 83. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty
- 84. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty Three metrics help us evaluate the ensuing risk
- 85. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty Three metrics help us evaluate the ensuing risk Post-adoption risks have been investigated, related to:
- 86. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty Three metrics help us evaluate the ensuing risk Post-adoption risks have been investigated, related to: 1. Cloud storage price rises
- 87. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty Three metrics help us evaluate the ensuing risk Post-adoption risks have been investigated, related to: 1. Cloud storage price rises 2. Cloud unavailability
- 88. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty Three metrics help us evaluate the ensuing risk Post-adoption risks have been investigated, related to: 1. Cloud storage price rises 2. Cloud unavailability 3. Overall cost fluctuations
- 89. Cloud insurance Maurizio Naldi Introduction Costs Decision criteria Risks after adoption Conclusions 18/18 Conclusions A stochastic DNPV approach can be employed to take migration decisions in the face of uncertainty Three metrics help us evaluate the ensuing risk Post-adoption risks have been investigated, related to: 1. Cloud storage price rises 2. Cloud unavailability 3. Overall cost fluctuations Pricing methods have been devised for Insurance policies