Presentation for Smallholder Mitigation: Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms - Expert Workshop 7 - 8 July 2011


1. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
Empirical evidence of food security
and mitigation benefits
from improved cropland management
by
Giacomo Branca
with
L. Lipper, N. McCarthy and M.C. Jolejole
(Agricultural Development Economics Division, FAO)
Smallholder Mitigation:
Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms
Expert Workshop
Rome, June 7-8 , 2011

2. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
Outline
1. Key research questions
2. Data and methods
3. Results
4. Discussion

3. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
1. Key research questions
Sustainable agriculture :
• increases crop productivity and system resilience,
without resources degradation
• potential to deliver climate change mitigation co-benefits:
reduced GHG emissions and increased Carbon
sequestration
Where to expect highest mitigation co-benefits
from changes in smallholder agriculture aimed at
promoting food security and CC adaptation
(synergies)?
What are the key barriers that prevent the
adoption of “climate smart” agricultural systems
(trade-offs)?

4. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
2. Data and methods
• Empirical results from lit review (CAB Abstracts,
Science Direct, Science Magazine Online, ProQuest,
Economist Intelligence Unit, World Bank & OECD,
WOCAT technology database)
Academic & grey literature (e.g. WOCAT: thesis,
manuscripts and other unpublished work)
•English, Spanish, Portuguese; developing countries
•implementation at smallholder level: small-size farms
(<1-2 ha); only a few cases medium-large scale farms
•Not included: model estimations, research station
experiments, on-farm field trials, studies without
quantitative impact or technology packages; research
experiments included only in case of long-term/
worldwide/large areas experiments
•Additional lit review (qualitative) of adoption barriers

5. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
Meta-analysis:
Each study result is one observation (one data point in
a larger dataset containing all available
information)
A single publication contributed more than once if a
separate study was done for different countries or
if more than one crop type was studied
% change of average yields with respect to the yield
under conventional agriculture (results compared
with control areas)
Cereals Other crops Total
Agronomy 28 10 38
Integrated nutrient management 24 7 31
Tillage and residue management 55 15 70
Water management 44 8 52
Agroforestry 20 6 26
Total 171 46 217
Management practice
n.

6. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S Effect of improved
cropland
management
practices:
average %
marginal increase
of cereal yields at
global level (95%
confidence
intervals )
3. Results: synergies
121
79
106
115
69
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Agronomy (28) Integrated
nutrient
management
(24)
Tillage and
residue
management
(55)
Water
management
(44)
Agroforestry
(20)
Management
Practices
Details of the Practices
Cover crops
Improved crop or fallow rotations
Improved crop varieties
Nutrient
management
Organic fertilization (use of compost, animal and
green manure)
Incorporation of crop residues, mulching
Reduced/minimum/zero tillage
Terraces, contour farming
Water harvesting
Live barriers, fences
Trees on cropland
Agronomy
Tillage and residue
management
Agroforestry
Water
management

7. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S Dry areas
116
72
122
92
81
0
50
100
150
200
250
Agronomy (6) Integrated
nutrient
management
(20)
Tillage and
residue
management
(42)
Water
management
(30)
Agroforestry
(8)
122 118
55
164
61
0
50
100
150
200
250
Agronomy (22) Integrated
nutrient
management
(4)
Tillage and
residue
management
(13)
Water
management
(14)
Agroforestry
(12)
Humid areas

8. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Agronomy Tillage/residue
management
Water
management
Agroforestry
%
Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Henao and
Baanante 2006 Asia and Pacific
Average % marginal
increase potential of
cereal yields at
regional level
Sub-Saharan Africa

9. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
High mitigation & food security potential in humid areas:
synergies (potential to link mitigation finance)
Mitigation co-benefits smaller in dry lands – but overall
impacts of changes on food security substantial (mitig.
finance mainly feasible over large areas/farmers)
300 200 100 0
Dry
0 100 200 300
Agronomy
Nutrient management
Tillage/residue management
Water management
Agroforestry Moist
Yield: average marginal increase (%/year)
GHG reduction (tCO2e/ha/year) (graph 1ton=100%)

10. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S • SLM is key in developing “Climate-smart”
productive systems:
- difference between humid and dry areas and
implications for climate finance
- geographical differences: SLM more effective in
SSA?
- no effect of farm size?
• Limits of the present analysis:
- limited number of crops (maize and wheat),
climates (warm dry/humid, no cool climates). And
mainly small farms…
- no observations reported negative responses
(may be biased sample)
- limited information on the yield variability
- consistence of results differs across technologies
4. Discussion

11. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S Expand research :
expand database of SLM and crop yields
• include other crops and agro-environmental conditions
• consider grasslands and livestock
• meta-analysis of experimental data
• Consider single practices instead of technology packages
• correct biased regional representation - 60% in SSA
• Conduct analysis at farming systems/AEZ level
build databases for emission reduction coefficients by
farming system/agro-ecologies
identify locations/farming systems where mitigation has
highest economic returns to FS & agricultural
development
4. Discussion

12. Economics
of
sustainable
agricultural
systems
E
S
A S
THANK YOU
for your attention!