This presentation was held during a high-level seminar in Ghana, Accra, together with parliamentarians and policy makers trying to identify how climate change will affect the country's, and the region's, agriculture sector. Learn more about our activities in West Africa: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/regions/west-africa

1. Awareness Creation Seminar For High Level Policy Makers and Politicians in Ghana, 29 January 2014, Accra
Vulnerability of West Africa Agriculture
and Food Systems to Climate Change:
The Need For Action through Climate-Smart Agriculture
Dr Robert Zougmoré
CCAFS Regional Program Leader West Africa

2. Outline
1. West Africa in brief
2. Key challenges
3. Plausible future scenarios of
agriculture
4. Needs for actions at all levels
2

3. Socio economic overview of West Africa
Population in 2010 was about 290 million.
Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the
active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP.
In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from
US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than
US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other
countries having less than US$ 500
•Vegetation and Land use
•Under-five mortality is between
100 and 200/1000.
An average of about 70–80 percent of the
population lives on less than US$2 per day
• The majority of the countries have
a life expectancy of between 50 and
60 years.

4. Natural Resource Endowment in WA
10.3 % exploited in
West Africa
Arable Land 236 million ha
10 % developed
Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha
Significant
pastoral and
fisheries resources
However, West
African
economies are
especially
vulnerable to
climate change
as a result of
their heavy
dependence on
rainfed
agriculture.

5. Major challenges
• increase agricultural production among
resource-poor farmers without exacerbating
environmental problems
• and simultaneously coping with climate change
(adaptation).
5

6. Length of growing season
is likely to decline..
Length of growing
period (%)
To 2090, taking 18
climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
>20% loss
5-20% loss
No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
6

7. Scenarios for the future
7

8. Analytical framework
• Integrates modeling components (macro to micro, to
model range of processes, from those driven by
economics to those that are essentially biological in
nature (IMPACT, HYDROLOGY, DSSAT, GCMs…)
• Used hundred of scenario maps, models, figures, and
their detailed analysis
• To generate plausible future scenarios that combine
economic and biophysical characteristics
• to explore the possible consequences for agriculture,
food security, and resources management to 2050
• National contributors from 11 countries reviewed the
scenario results for their countries and proposed a
variety of policies to counter the effects of climate
change on agriculture and food security.

9. Population and income
1. A significant increase in the population of all countries except
Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more
than double except Cape Verde
2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from
US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire.
3. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the
pessimistic scenario.

10. Rainfall
Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of:
1.changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavy-rainfall
areas, particularly along the coast,
2.or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain.
3.Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050,
CSIRO, A1B (mm)
MIROC, A1B (mm)

11. Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop
model: CSIRO A1B
MIROC A1B
Maize
Groundnut
Sorghum

12. Regional/landscape implications
Coastal West Africa
Sahelian region
Drought and floods could affect productivity and
even threaten the existence of plants and animals
along the coast and the Sahel, respectively
Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in
hitherto dry areas in the Sahel
Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to
unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of
inputs to farming areas and produce to market
Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new
farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits

13. Regional Agricultural Outcomes
• World market prices for maize, rice, sorghum,
and wheat predicted to increase in all scenarios,
while millet price will be less in 2050 than in
2010.
• The area under cultivation of millet and sorghum
will increase, while the area under cultivation of
maize will decrease. Production of maize, millet
and sorghum is predicted to increase by 2050.
• In the optimistic scenario, the number of
malnourished children decreases for all the
countries except Niger. In the pessimistic
scenario, the number increases in all countries
except Guinea Bissau and Senegal

14. We need climate-smart agriculture
actions at all levels
14

15. Recommendations at regional level
• Available and accessible weather data – AGRHYMET
• Capacity building in climate science and need for targeted research
for climate-smart technologies.
• Harmonized and climate-smart use of rivers for irrigation and
electricity
• Conservation of natural resources, particularly forests, and the
development of parks.
• Sustained economic integration (common currency & trade policies)
• Reliable trunk and feeder roads for free movement of goods and
people throughout the region.
• Effective linkage & dialogue between researchers & policy makers.
15

16. Expected yield changes of maize in Ghana
• Across Ghana: yield loss for rain-fed maize is projected to be
around 7.5 percent.
• Some climate hotspots with yield losses greater than 25% (darker
orange). The one in the northeast, in particular, is in a relatively
high maize productivity area.

17. Expected yield changes of maize in Ghana
• If maize happens to be the main food consumed in this
area, than a large productivity loss is of serious
consequence for the farming households there.
• Such an area should receive high attention by policy
makers, researchers, and donors, to avoid a possible crisis
in the future.
• In the worst case scenario for this type of area, we would
expect high incentives for climate migration, with adverse
effects on other rural areas and cities!
• Areas with yield gain of at least 25% must
also be considered climate opportunities!!!!

18. What can be done for farmers living in this area?
• Developing new maize varieties suitable to the new climate.
• If irrigation is possible, then irrigation may allow farmers to plant in
a cooler time of the year.
• Using agroforestry systems to provide shade for the crops and thus
cooling the soils at the hottest part of the day.
• If an alternative crop (perhaps millet) is more heat tolerant,
farmers could switch to the alternative crop.
• Switching into livestock, if technically feasible for the area, may be
an alternative.
• If no alternative farming solution, government to consider offering
voluntary relocation to a different area, or investing in rural
industry that might be appropriate for providing alternative
employment to farmers.

19. Climate-smart villages in Ghana (Doggoh), Burkina
(Tibtenga), Senegal (Kaffrine), Mali (Cinzana)
Concrete action at community level:
1.increase agricultural productivity and
farmers’ income;
2.strengthen the resilience of ecosystems and
livelihoods to climate change;
3.and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate
services
Designed
diversification
Climatesmart village
Weather
insurance
Partnership
-NARS
-Extension
-NGOs
-Universities
-Developt. partners
-Private sector
-CBOs, Local leaders
Community
management
of resources
Capacity
building
Mitigation
/C seq
19

20. Thank you!
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