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Managing the Future Workforce
- 1. Future of Talent Conference Managing the future workforce Peter Cheese – CEO, CIPD London July 10th
- 2. We live in interesting times! • “we have moved from the industrial age, through the information age, to the age of talent” • Thomas Friedman, ‘The World is Flat’ 2005
- 3. A new set of ‘norms’ Economy Value Work Workplace Workforce Networked, Collaborative, Flexible Formal Organization and Informal Social System Structures More volatile and less predictable Continued shift toward Intangibles Increasingly Increasingly Increasingly Increasingly More diverse, more demandingIncreasingly
- 4. Sources: UN, OECD, UKCES, CIPD, Accenture Research Countries Projected to have Maximum Workforce Shortages (2020) Phase 2 of the ‘war for talent’ Talent and skills shortage ranked 2nd as business risk, up from 22nd in 2009 (Lloyds Risk Index) Talent seen as nbr 1 issue for CEOs (PwC annual CEO review 2012), and nbr 1 risk (WEF 2013) 43% of businesses reporting moderate skills shortage, with 13% acute shortage(CIPD 2013) 2.3m more managerial, technical, professional roles by 2022 But….skills mismatches – eg LGA predicts that by 2022 there will be 9.2m low-skilled people chasing 3.7m low-skilled jobs – a surplus of 5.5m workers.
- 5. What will be the future workforce? • More diverse, more demanding • Working more flexibly, in many different ways • More entrepreneurs, more knowledge workers, more service workers • More specialists • Working more in SMEs • More jobs and more career changes • Older and will work longer but with less security • Will need to upskill and reskill more • In a more VUCA world
- 6. • The great collaborators and orchestrators – coordinating and managing • The great synthesisers – pulling together different things • The great explainers – filtering and explaining content • The great versatilists – adapting and developing specialist skills • The great personalisers – team builders • The great localisers – localising the global • + IQ, EQ, TQ, CQ What will be the core skills for the future (OECD view)
- 7. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 $1990 Context: UK and global GDP per head UK World Source: Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden (2013). The First Update of the Maddison Project; Re-Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4. Must understand and address UK productivity gap
- 8. -677 -94 1,387 770 -305 186 1,235 1,956 15-24 25-49 50-64 65+ Demographic change: Illustrative projections of change in employment by age group from 2012 baseline, thousands 2022 2032 Sources: CIPD calculations based on ONS 2012 Principal population projections and revised mid-year estimates for 2002 and 2007 , employment rates for May-Jul 2002 and 2012 based on the Labour Force Survey and CIPD assumptions for employment rates for 2017 onwards. Systemic shift and challenge of youth unemployment UK has worst ratio of youth to prime age employment in Europe
- 9. Response needed from macro to micro Industrial Strategy Employment Policy Education and learning Organisational Strategy Workforce planning Strategic partnering Leadership & management TM practices HR capabilities • Will require more joined up thinking from national policy to individual businesses • Tri-partite – Government, business, education and representative bodies • HR has a critical role to play and must step up
- 10. Working with education – building the skills for the future • Improving careers IAG • Promoting apprenticeships and VE • Volunteering • Increasing employer skills investment • Incentives and funding • Partnering for lifelong learning • National, regional and local • Employability skills • Routes in to work • Skills investment and lifelong learning
- 11. • Source • Attract • Select • Orient •Train •Develop •Reward •Move through the Organization Welcome to XYZ Corp Orientation begins here Need to invest in and improve People Management and development practices Where are your biggest challenges today? Where will they be tomorrow?
- 12. Strategies to address skills shortfalls Rightsourcing Recruitment strategies Skills building Skills retention Job Design Requires different thinking
- 13. Creating agile learning organizations Agility and Adaptability Scopeoflearning Low High Core training programs Collaborative learning Learning a new skill Reinforcing existing skills Learning at point of needEmbedded learning Learning to solve problems Learning to adapt Focus of traditional corporate learning On-line help and support services Continuous, adaptive and collaborative learning Organizational reach and value
- 14. HR a key enabler, but developing managers is critical
- 15. In conclusion…. Change and opportunity • Better more inclusive workplaces, more democratic, more socially responsible • Better leadership and management at all levels • More agility – reskilling, redeploying, upskilling • More diverse TM practices to manage a more diverse workforce • Working more with education at all levels • Improving productivity and job opportunities for all