Presentation made to the Crop Wild Relative project colleagues, in the progress meeting held at CIAT in early April 2012

1. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

2. Wheeler 2012. NCC.

3. The approach

5. Modelling changes in crop suitability
• EcoCrop: how does it work?
It evaluates on monthly basis if there
are adequate climatic conditions
within a growing season for
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the
temperature and precipitation…
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…

6. Input data
Model training
• Present-day climates from WorldClim
• Crop distribution data (GBIF, other sources)
• An idea of the crop’s ecology, its distribution, and
growing season duration
• Some literature review
Model projection
• 24 different climate models (2030, SRES-A1B), to
sample uncertainties
Adaptation strategy testing
• Genetic adaptation by broadening ecological ranges

7. Preliminary analyses (~2009)
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

8. Sorghum

9. Cassava

10. New analyses: 26 crops + maize

11. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

12. Potato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80 Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

13. Potato Current Suitability and Presence

14. Potato Current Climatic Constraints

15. Potato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B

16. Potato Breeding Priorities
Water availability Temperatures

17. Regional impacts

18. Suitability changes
Crop Comparison

19. Suitability changes
Crop Comparison in Africa

20. Suitability changes
Crop Comparison in Latin America
& Caraïbes

21. amkn.org