Presentation made in the workshop on Agroganaderia sostenible in IICA, Bogota, 23rd October 2013.

1. Livestock at the Crossroads: new Directions for Policy, Research and Development Cooperation
Livestock, climate change and resource use:
present and future
Andy Jarvis, Tim Searchinger, Caitlin Peterson, Phil
Thornton, Mario Herrero, Michael Peters
CCAFS Theme Leader

2. El
Problema

3. Food security is at risk
In order to meet
global
demands, we will
need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.

4. Arable land per person will decrease
The arable land
on the earth is
~3% or 1.5
billion ha
Year
1950
2000
2050
• World Population
• 2,500,000,000
6,1000,000
9,000,000
• Arable land
• 0.52 ha
• 0.25 ha
• 0.16 ha

5. 3 Livestock and GHG
•30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture
- 80% of all agricultural land
•1/3 arable land used for feed crop production
•70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture
Source: Erb et al. (2007)

6. Agriculture-related activities are ~ 24% of global
greenhouse gas emissions (2010)
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Industrial
Waste
processes
Land-use change and
forestry including
drained peatlands
Agriculture production
(e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestoc
k, energy)
4
2
11
13
70
Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. Gigatonne = 1 x 109
Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). 2012. World Resources Institute.
Non-Ag
Energy

7. Figure 24. Global greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production
Percent
100% = 6.5 Gt CO2e in 2010
Manure management
Column1
7
Rice
10
35
Energy
Ruminant enteric
fermentation
Ruminant Enteric Fermentation
17
20
Soil fertilization
Sources: WRI analysis based on EPA 2012 and FAO 2012. with adjustments
12
Ruminant wastes
on pastures

8. Figure 25. “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would
comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2 C world
Gt CO2e per year
Non-agricultural emissions
85
48
Agricultural and land-use
change emissions
70
36
21
12
2010
2050
(Business as usual)
>70%
15
Sources: WRI analysis based on IEA 2012, EIA 2012, EPA 2012, Houghton 2008, and OECD 2012.
2050
(2°C target)

9. 2 Livestock and GHG
•10-18%3 of all global anthropogenic GHG
-Other estimates as high as 51%4,5
•Range arises from methodological differences
-Inventories vs. life cycle assessments
-Attribution of land use to livestock
-Omissions, misallocations
kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein
Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities
•Highest variation occurs for
beef, due to variety of
production systems.
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
•Ruminants require more
fossil energy use, emit more
CH4 per animal.6
Pig
Poultry
Beef
Milk
Eggs
Source: de Vries and de Boer (2009)

10. Loss detections
Jan 2004
Oct 2012
Results
Latin America

11. Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050:
Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to
1.96 billion (medium estimate UN)
Region today consumes 9% of world calories but will consume
31% of projected calorie growth to 2050
Current
2050 - Current
consumption and
% of Imports
2050 - FAO projection
& self-sufficient
production (2830 kcal)
Cropland needed at
current yields for domestic
food consumption
(hectares)
154 million 357 million
488 million
Cereal yield needed to
avoid new land clearing
1.23 t/ha
4.33 t/ha
2.81 t/ha

12. Mensaje 1:
Ganaderia esta en el ojo del hurrican en
el tema de seguridad alimentario del
mundo: emisiones, uso de la tierra,
suministro de proteina

13. Entonces que se hace? Tres
consideraciones
• Los numeros no cuadran, entonces cual es la
solucion?
– Incrementar productividad
– Disminuir perdidas en la cadena (y con
consumidor)
– Reducir consumo

14. The size of food loss and waste (2009)
24% of global food supply by energy content (kcal)
32%
of global food supply by weight
Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste – extent, causes
and prevention. Rome: UN FAO.

15. Food lost or wasted (kcal per capita per day - 2009)
Percent
Consumption
Distribution & market
Processing
100% = 1520 kcal/capita/day
Handling & storage
Production
61
748
746
594
7
52
46
34
9
17
North America &
Oceania
18
4
12
6
11
2
23
17
23
Europe
Industrialized Asia
North Africa, West &
Central Asia
5
13
7
21
23
545
9
5
37
453
28
17
6
22
414
13
15
4
37
39
Number may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source: WRI analysis based on Gustavsson et al. 2011.
28
Sub-Saharan Africa
32
Latin America
South and Southeast
Asia

16. Livestock products: Developing countries are
hungry for more.
•Growth in animal product
consumption has increased
more than any other
commodity group.1
•Greatest increases in S and
SE Asia, Latin America.
-Overall meat
consumption in China
has quadrupled since
1980 to 119
lbs/person/yr. 2
Photo by: CGIAR
•Economic and population
growth, rising per capita
incomes, urbanization

17. 2 Livestock consumption patterns
•Between 1961 and 2005 milk consumption in developing countries
doubled, meat consumption tripled, and egg consumption increased by
a factor of five. 1

18. Changing consumption of meat in relation to gross national income (GNI)
per capita (1961-2007)
Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.”
Government Office for Science, London.

19. 3 Livestock consumption patterns
•As incomes grow, expenditure
on livestock products increases
rapidly .3
Past and projected consumption of livestock products
-GDP growth in E Asia
from 1991-2001 was 7%
per year, compared to
2.3% in other developing
countries and 1.8% in
developed countries.
•Consumption is leveling off in
developed countries, but more
than doubled since 1980 in
developing countries (from 31
lbs. to 62 lbs. in 2002).
-Rapid growth led by
China, India, & Brazil
projected to continue.
Source: FAO (2006a) and FAO (2006b).

20. Table 3. FAO’s projected livestock consumption by region
Livestock
(kcal/person/day)
Region
Beef and mutton
(kcal/person/day)
2006
2050
% change
2006
2050
% change
Canada & USA
907
887
-2%
117
95
-19%
European Union
864
925
7%
80
75
-6%
Brazil
606
803
33%
151
173
15%
Former Soviet Union
601
768
28%
118
156
32%
China
561
820
46%
41
89
116%
Other OECD
529
674
27%
64
84
31%
Latin America (ex Brazil)
475
628
32%
96
116
21%
Middle East & North Africa
303
416
37%
59
86
45%
Asia (ex. China, India)
233
400
72%
24
43
79%
India
184
357
94%
8
19
138%
Sub-Saharan Africa
144
185
29%
41
51
26%
World
413
506
23%
50
65
30%
Source: WRI analysis of FAO 2012 data.

21. Figure 12. Efficiency rates of producing animal-based foods
Percent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”
Calories
Protein
25
20
18
16
15
15
15
10
7
4
1
7
11
12
13
8
3
1
N/A*
Beef
Sheep
Shrimp
Milk
(cattle)
Milk
(buffalo)
Pork
Poultry
Finfish
Egg
Mollusks
*Mollusks independently produce calories and protein without any human-managed inputs. Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein
content of bone-free carcass. Sources for terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. 2010 (extra unpublished tables), Wirsenius 2000.
Sources for finfish and shrimp: WRI author calculations based on USDA 2013, NRC 2011,
Tacon and Metian 2008, Wirsenius 2000, and FAO 1989.

22. Figure 13. Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein
Kg CO2e / kg protein
175
70
45
80
25
Beef
Pork
45
45
40
30
20
Eggs
Milk
Poultry
Note: Data mostly from developed world, and excludes emissions from land use change
Source: DeVries (2009)

24. Which system is more sustainable?

25. Comparative Emissions from Dairy Cows
Gerber et al., FAO (2010)
Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases
per kilogram of milk
Accessible improvements – cut emissions
per unit of milk by ½ to 2/3.
High protein shrub
Improved pasture
Increased stover digestibility
Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS
U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram
of milk

26. Developing country productions systems that are
eco-efficient
B1 scenario shown though the pattern is similar for all SRES scenarios
Smith P et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363:789-813 (2008)
Source: ILRI

27. Government policies increasing agricultural
land-area especially in perennials

28. …and increasing livestock production, but
on less land

29. It’s all about the livestock…..either improve it’s
efficiency, or get out of it!
Carbon capture (CO2eq) for agricultural sector
(fruits, livestock and rice) in Colombia

30. The hoofprint means there is plenty to do!
•Ganaderia si es gran parte del problema, y tiende a empeorar
• Solucion viene igual dentro del sector
•Ganaderia sostenible tiene que ser holistico en su vision:
•Zero deforestacion
•Baja emisiones
•Alta productivdad
•Generacion de servicios ecosistemicos
•Consumo responsible
•Bajas perdidas post cosecha
•Sabemos mucho, tenemos ejemplos espectaculares
•Como logramos impactos escalados a nivel global/nacional
•Politicas/tecnologias/programas/investigacion alineado

31. a.jarvis@cgiar.org

32. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
The state of food and agriculture: Livestock in the balance. Rome: United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization, 2009, 9.
FAOSTAT 2010, cited in: Skillful means: The challenges of China’s encounter with factory farming.
New York: Brighter Green, 2011, 1.
Steinfeld et al. (2006). Livestock’s long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome: United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
Goodland, R., and Anhang, J. 2009. Livestock and climate change: What if the key actors in climate
change were pigs, chickens and cows? WorldWatch November/December 2009, p1019, WorldWatch Institute, Washington DC
Herrero, M. et al. 2011. Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the
numbers right. Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167: 779-782.
de Vries, M., and de Boer, I.J.M., 2009. Comparing environmental impacts for livestock products: A
review of life cycle assessments. Livestock Science 128(1): 1-11.
Thornton, P. 2010. Livestock production: Recent trends, future prospects. Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society of Biology 365: 2853-2867.
Working group II: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Africa, 10.2.2.4. Livestock. Geneva:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.
Climate, livestock and poverty: Challenges at the interface. Nairobi: International Livestock Research
Institute, 2009.

33. Ruminant Meat Consumes Majority of World’s Animal Feed But
Provides 1/8 of Animal Product Calories
Percent: 100% = 6705 million tons of dry matter per year (2010)
Nonruminants
Column1
Permanent pasture
& browse
Non-agricultural
herbage & browse
Ruminant
meat
Forage crops
(hay & silage)
Cereal grains
Cropland pasture
Ruminant
dairy
Soybean, starchy
roots, & other edible
crops
Crop residues
Food industry byproducts & food waste
Note: Soybean and other oil meals are included in “Food industry by-products” while whole soybeans are included in “Soybeans, starchy roots and
other edible crops”.
Source: Wirsenius, S., et al. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios
of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agr. Syst. (2010).