Presentation on Austin economy to IREM Austin Chapter on January 14, 2014

1. Growing Prosperity in Austin
IREM Austin
Monthly Networking Luncheon
Westwood Country Club
January 14, 2014

2. Growing Prosperity in Austin
• Sources
• Reasons
• Challenges
• Opportunities
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

3. GDP Growth
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Austin MSA
US (MSAs)
Austin MSA real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and
2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B). Austin MSA GDP almost
certainly surpassed $100 billion mark in 2013, which would rank 32nd largest among all US MSAs.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data in 2013 dollars.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

4. Job Growth
6%
5%
4%
3%
Austin MSA
Texas
2%
1%
0%
US
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large
metros (500,000+ population) between 2001 and 2012.
Job growth averaged 13,500 net increase annually.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

5. Net Migration (Move In–Move Out)
Travis County gained (net) approximately 5,000 people per year
from other states during 1996-2010.
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows data for Travis County, 2010 tax year.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

6. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.

7. Net Migration, Different State
12,000
10,000
8,000
Travis County
CA 15%
IL 7%
FL 6%
CA 35%
LA 23%
FL 5%
CA 42%
CA 24%
FL 10%
IL 7%
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
Average (06-10): 8,820
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10).
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

8. 78701 Population (2010): 6,841
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

9. Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)
Maricopa, AZ
Wake, NC
Tarrant, TX
Orleans, LA
King, WA
Travis, TX
9,840
Fulton, GA
7,573
York, SC
Net migration from different state
0
5,000
10,000
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000

10. Post-Recession Leaders (2010)
Harris, TX
Bexar, TX
El Paso, CO
Dallas, TX
Tarrant, TX
Fulton, GA
Fairfax, VA
Travis, TX
Pinal, AZ
Wake, NC
Orleans, LA
Denver, CO
Williamson, TX
7,030
3,943
0
5,000
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Net migration from different state
10,000
15,000
20,000

11. Popular Neighborhoods (2007-11)
1. Steiner Ranch
7. North Loop
2. Milwood/Arrowwood
8. Onion Creek
3. North Burnet/Domain
9. Barton Creek/Hills
4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake 10. Old West Austin
5. Canyon Creek
11. Northwest Hills
6. Hyde Park
12. Preston Oaks
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

12. Net Migration (Total) – HH Income
$500
Travis County
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
-$100
Average (06-10): $321M
-$200
-$300
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Adjusted Gross Income, Net In-Migration Less Out-Migration in Travis County, All Sources.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

13. How long will it last?
$100,000+
% Total HHs
$200,000+
% Total HHs
Med List Price
Per Sq Ft
Med List Rent
Per Sq Ft
San Francisco
39%
13%
$735
$3.69
Washington DC
36%
12%
$442
$2.80
Seattle
31%
8%
$346
$2.09
Boston
26%
7%
$427
$3.02
New York
24%
7%
$447
$3.88
Austin
24%
6%
$159
$1.27
Portland
24%
5%
$212
$1.34
Raleigh
23%
5%
$111
$0.78
Charlotte
22%
6%
$100
$0.77
Denver
22%
6%
$232
$1.43
Nashville
15%
3%
$103
$0.89
City
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012, Zillow (November 2013).
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

14. Per Capita Income (Travis, %US)
130
120
110
100
103.67
1996
90
103.94
2011
80
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
70
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

15. % Pop ≥ Associate’s Degree (Austin, 2012)
Asian
75%
White
65%
Black
23%
Hispanic/Latino
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
70% of projected job openings (2013-2023) in Travis
County paying median wage of at least $18 per hour
will require a postsecondary credential or degree.
40%
50%
60%
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012. Data is for population age 25+. Data on jobs from EMSI.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
70%
80%

16. Average Monthly Earnings (Travis, 2012Q2)
Asian
$5,850
White
$5,387
Black
$3,371
Hispanic/Latino
$1,000
$3,272
$2,000
$3,000
Source: US Census Bureau (LEHD, QWI)
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
According to MIT’s Living Wage
Calculator, a family with one adult and one
child living in Travis County requires $3,390
in pre-tax monthly income to meet basic
needs.
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000

17. Key Takeaways
• Economic growth and migration are fueling
unprecedented wealth creation in Austin
• Disparity in educational attainment is most
serious threat to Austin’s future prosperity
• Time for big ideas & stretch goals is now
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

18. Brian Kelsey
Civic Analytics LLC
3420 Executive Center Drive
Suite 300
Austin, TX 78731
brian@civicanalytics.com
512-731-7851
http://civicanalytics.com
@civicanalytics
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin