CUPE’s national pension trustee training began with a panel on the state of public and workplace pensions. CUPE economist Toby Sanger kicked off the discussion with a overview of how the economic crisis and its fallout will affect pensions.

1. CUPE Pension Trustee Training
24 January 2010, Ottawa
Economic Context
Toby Sanger, CUPE National

2. Public sector job growth
strong in past decade
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Public employees - annual increase Average 1976-89
Average 1989-99 Average 1999-09

3. Earnings growth –
likely to be lower in public sector
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Earnings growth - Average Weekly Earnings

4. Inflation low but moving up
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CPI Inflation CPI Forecast TD Bank

5. 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2000/01
2000/07
2001/01
2001/07
T-Bills
2002/01
2002/07
2003/01
2003/07
2004/01
10yr Bonds
2004/07
2005/01
2005/07
2006/01
2006/07
2007/01
T-Bill forecast 2007/07
Interest rates:
2008/01
2008/07
2009/01
2009/07
almost nowhere to go but up
2010/01
Bond forecast
2010/07
2011/01
2011/07

6. 2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
Dec-86
Nov-87
Nov-88
Nov-89
Nov-90
Nov-91
Nov-92
Nov-93
Nov-94
Nov-95
Nov-96
Nov-97
Nov-98
Nov-99
Toronto Stock Exchange
Nov-00
Nov-01
Nov-02
Nov-03
Nov-04