This document describes a risk index for quantifying human movement and social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses anonymized mobile device location data to analyze origins and destinations of movement, calculate a risk index based on trip counts and distances, identify significant gathering locations, and visualize hotspots of movement. The workflow involves processing raw location data through spatial indexing, origin-destination analysis, enriching origin locations, finding statistically significant risk areas, and publishing the results in a dashboard. The goal is to provide metrics that quantify risk associated with volume of movement and identify locations where social distancing may be difficult.

1. SARS-CoV-2 Human
Movement Risk Index
Jim Young
Joel McCune
+

2. Geography Matters.

4. Geography Matters
(in a pandemic)
SOCIAL DISTANCING
METRICS
QUANTIFYING RISK RISK INDEX
CALCULATION

5. Current
Social
Distancing
Metrics
• Normalized by population
• Some factor in distance traveled, while others
are simply based on volume
• Almost all factor out risk associated with
volume
• None quantify and identify significant grouping
locations

6. Quantifying Risk
Movement Risk Factors Movement Data
Veraset human movement panel
data (~5.6bil records per day)
Unique mobile device location
Analysis Environment
Databricks
ArcGIS

7. Workflow
1. Raw Data 2. H3 Index
3. Origin /
Destination
Analysis
4. Enrich
Origin
Location
5. Visualize
Hotspots
6. Publish
Dashboard
+

8. Veraset Panel Data 1. Raw Data

9. Spatial Index Raw Data
2. H3 Index

10. Generate
Origin/Destination
Trips
3. Origin /
Destination
Analysis

11. Risk Index
Calculation
Summarize
Summarize Index Permutations
•Home – movement origins
•Trip – movement destinations
Calculate Calculate risk index – multiply trip count by distance
Sum Sum all home and trip location permutations
Re-identify Identify home and trip location by device into h3 cells
Bin Bin observations – H3 level nine hexagons
Identify Identify dwell observations – drop high speed (over 1mph)

12. Who is moving?
Who is sheltering? 4. Enrich Origin
Location

13. 5. Visualize
Hotspots
Find Statistically
Significant Areas of
Risk

14. Share Your Results
6. Publish
Dashboard

15. 1. Raw Data 2. H3 Index
3. Origin /
Destination
Analysis
4. Enrich
Origin
Location
5. Visualize
Hotspots
6. Publish
Dashboard
+

16. +