This document discusses technology assessment and its evolution. It began as a way for experts to evaluate new technologies but now involves stakeholders and the public. Technology assessment aims to anticipate impacts, identify winners and losers, consider alternatives, and resist locking in to a single technological trajectory. It examines costs, benefits, and risks while balancing economic, social and environmental factors. Uncertainty is also a major consideration.

1. Strategic Technology
Assessment
Assessing the Impact of Technology:
Where is Technology Taking Us?
Where are We Taking Technology?

2.  Up to Now We Have Discussed the
Internal Dynamic of Technology:
 Technology as a Driver of Economic and
Social Change
 Response of Technology to External Forces
 But Can Humans Guide Technological
Change?

3. Origins of Technology
Assessment for Policy Makers:
 First Disenchantment with  „Better Things for
Technological Progress in Better Living
1960s-70s after 1950s Through Chemistry‟
Optimism IS REPLACED BY
 Thalidomide N
 Taconite Tailings in Lake
Superior
I
 Diethyl Stilbestrol M
 Urban Renewal B
 Airport Noise Y!
 Tuskegee Experiment  [Not in My Back Yard!]

4. Technology Assessment is an Effort to
 Anticipate Impacts
 Project Diffusion and Advance of Technology
 Assess Overall Costs and Benefits
 Identify Winners, Losers, and Risk Bearers
 “Anticipatory Ethics”
Technology Assessment (at least in government) has Evolved
into a Multi-Disciplinary Process that Involves Stakeholders
and the Public in Addition to Expert Analysts
 Resist Technological Trajectory: Consider
Alternatives Before You are Locked In
 (This Allows Precaution at an Earlier Stage of the Decision-
Making Process and Makes „Train Wrecks‟ Less Likely)

5. Technology Assessment can be Applied
 To Any New Product or Process
 More Usually, to a Major Anticipated Advance
 Nanotechnology – Environmental and Health Risks
 Neurotechnology – e.g., Truth Detection
 Gene Therapy – Apply to Germ Cells?
 Synthetic Biology – e.g., Synthesized Polio Virus
 Public Health – e.g., Cervical Cancer Vaccine
 Xenotransplants – Risk of new human diseases?

6. The Asilomar Conference (1975)
on Genetic Engineering:
The Classic Historical Precedent
Scientists Meet to Assess the Hazards of New
Technology:
 Could an an Engineered Virus Escape from the Lab
to Wreak Havoc?
 A Genetically Engineered Organism would be Self-
Replicating:
 Recommendations:
 Ensure that Engineered Organisms Cannot Survive in the
Wild
 Stop Progress for Key Experiments to Make Sure this is
Possible

7. Asilomar was a Closed
Meeting of Scientists
 „Boundary Work‟ to Establish this Issue as the
Domain of Experts:
 Public and Congress, Stay Out! We‟ll Handle This!
 Rolling Stone Published the Main Journalistic Account
 But the Issues Addressed Affect Everyone and Involve
Value Judgments
 Technology Assessment Today is not Just an Analytic
Process. It is a Social and Political Undertaking that
Involves the Public in Addition to Experts.

8. Classic Debate: Technological
Optimists vs. Pessimists
 Malthus: Geometric Population Growth Inevitably
Outstrips Linear Growth in Agricultural Production

9.  So Far, Increased Productivity through
Improved Technology has Allowed
Production and Jobs to Increase Faster than
Population
 e.g., Uncompetitive Small Farmers Become
Truck Drivers to Transport Increased
Agricultural Production, or get Industrial Jobs
as the Economy Grows.
 But Technological Progress Generates Losers
(„Buggy Whip Makers‟), Some of Whom Cannot
Adapt – a Big Equity Issue for Policy Makers

10. The Debate Continues: Can This
Go On Forever?
Will Machines Only Make the Rich
Richer? Will They Put Us All Out of
Work Some Day?

11. Winners and Losers
from Technological Innovation:
Social, Economic and
Environmental Impact

12. Who Stands to Gain?
 Users, Manufacturers and Beneficiaries of the New
Technology
 Their Employees, Suppliers, Maintenance and Repair People
 Inventors, Suppliers and Users of Successor
Technologies that Build on this Success
 Their Grocers, Barbers, and Tax Collectors
 The Region in which These People Live – Property
Owners and Workers

13. Who Stands to Lose?
Who Stands to Bear the Risk?
The Analogous Stakeholders in
the Replaced Technology --
Especially Those Who Cannot
Respond to the Change and
Protect their Interests

14. Employment: The Most Prominent
Economic and Social Impact
 Will the Economic Expansion Induced by the
Innovation Absorb the Unemployment Created by
the New Technology? [Up to Now, It Always Has]
 But the Losers May Well Have to Move and Retrain
(for which they may be too old or under-educated)
 And the Losing Regions Must Attract or Develop
New Industry – e.g., US „Rust Belt‟ of 1980s, and All
„Emerging Markets‟ in Developing Countries

15. “Orphan” Technology:
A Need But No Market
 Customers Poor or Powerless
 Adoption Blocked by Policy
 Regulations Block Adoption
 Subsidies to Competing Technology
 Class Exercise will Address the
Launching of an Orphan „Invention‟ to
which you have Title

16. An Aside: The “Orphan Drug Act” is
a Special Incentive to Drug
Companies (Fewer Regulatory
Hurdles, Longer Patent Duration) to
Encourage them to Develop
Therapies for Rare Diseases

17. Social, Cultural and Ethical
Acceptability
 Does Anyone Find Basic
Philosophical, Ethical or Cultural
Objections to the Technology or its
Function? [Recall Stem Cells, Genetically
Modified Foods]
 Is there a „Yuk‟ Factor?
These Involve Value Judgments on
which People will Disagree

18. Environmental and Public
Health Impacts
(An Issue on whose Importance
We all can Agree, though we may have
Different Tolerance for Risk)
 Pollution and Waste
 Ecological Impact
 Potential for Accident or Misuse
 Effect on Climate or Other Global Commons
 Worker Health and Safety
A Major Issue for Nanotechnology, Since
Immune Systems Didn’t Evolve to
Defend Against Nanoparticles

19. “Industrial Ecology”
 Research, Design and
Development
 An Engineering and  Raw Materials
Policy Approach  Manufacturing
Intended to Minimize  Use
Environmental Impact  Maintenance and
over the Life Cycle of Repair
the Product  Disposal and
Recycling
Take-Back Regulations  Obsolescence and
Force Attention to this Close-Down or
Life-Cycle ‘Footprint’ Decommissioning

20. Biotechnology Presents
Special Equity Risks
Are We in Danger of Creating
a Permanent Division between
Techno-Haves and Have-Nots?
(e.g., by Enhancements of
Brains or Bodies)

21. Cost-Benefit Analysis:
A Basic Tool in Organizing the Analysis
of the Impact of any Intervention by
 Distinguishing between Costs, Benefits and
Risks, and then
 Asking: On Balance,
 Will the World Be Better Off?
(Economic and Social Analysis)
 Will the Investor be Better Off?
(Financial Analysis)
 Who will Gain and Who will Lose?
 Who will Bear the Risks?
 This Framework is More Important than
the Actual Calculation.

22. Begin by Defining the Intervention
and its Area of Impact
A Project?
A Policy?
What‟s Inside and What‟s
Outside?

23. Then List its
Costs and Benefits
 Financial Benefits and Costs are Those Felt
Directly by the Investor, In and Out of Pocket
 Economic (also Called Social) Costs and
Benefits are Felt by the Society at
Large, Including Externalities – Measured by
Gain or loss in GNP or Other Measure of
Public Welfare
 In Principle, Risks and Uncertainties can be
Treated by Applying Percentage Probabilities

24. Cost/ Benefit vs. Precaution
 Precaution Addresses Risks, Not Benefits:
How Much am I Willing to Pay (or How
Much Benefit am I Willing to Forego) to
Avoid Risk?
 Cost/Benefit Analysis Could be Recast as
Precaution if Risks and Benefits were
Expressed as a Function of the Chance
that the Feared Danger is Real
[this is a longer discussion]

25. In Practice, Cost/Benefit Does
Not Always Include
 Who Bears the Costs, Who Gets the Benefits
 Risks and Who Will Bear them
 Externalities (Although there are Ways to
Quantify Some of these, such as Hedonic
Pricing)
 Long-Term and Irreversible Effects
 These are Essential to Sustainability and
Require Special Treatment

26. Key Concepts of Cost-Benefit
 Compare an Honest Projection of the Situation
With and Without the Project
 With: Don‟t be Too Optimistic
 Without: Don‟t be Too Pessimistic
 NOT: With Project vs. Do Nothing
 (Discretion is Often Abused to Ensure a Desired
Outcome)
 Costs and Benefits that Cannot be Quantified
Should Nevertheless be Included in the Analysis
Sunk Costs are Sunk

27.  Approach: Consider the Introduction of a
Technology (or of a Policy) as a Project = A
Bounded Set of Activities
 This May be Anticipated to Have Costs and
Benefits on a Time Schedule
 These Refer to Overall Costs and Benefits. Later
We Think about Who Gains and Loses
 Externalities: Costs and Benefits Outside the
“Project”
 Benefits: Training, Technology Spin-
Off, Employment Creation, Community Benefits
 Costs: Congestion, Environment, Social Disruption,

28. The Discount Rate: A Tool for
Comparing the Impact of Events
that Occur at Different Times

29. Discounting Principles -- Important
 Benefits Today (Whether Financial or Non-
Financial) are More Desirable than Benefits later
 Costs Today are Less Desirable than Costs Later
 Discount Rate: The „Interest‟ Rate Used for this
Comparison
 Higher Discount Rate Means Less Concern for
Future Costs and Benefits.
(This Applies to Non-Monetizable Benefits as well, since the money can be
invested so as to realize more benefits later.)
 Any Positive Discount Rate Results in Neglect of
Future Generations

30. Definitions
 Rate of Return: The Interest Rate at which Discounted
Costs = Discounted Benefits: i.e., the Interest Rate
Equivalent to what you‟d get from a Bank
 Benefit/Cost Ratio = Discounted Benefits/Discounted
Costs
 Net Present Value = Discounted Value Today of Future
(Benefits – Costs) at a Given Interest Rate.
[Used to Compare Investments of Different Sizes]

31. “The Copenhagen Consensus” Shows
Both the Strengths and Limitations
of Cost/Benefit Analysis
 Asks What Interventions in Global Problems
Have the Highest Cost/Benefit
 Winners Favor Existing Technology with Rapid
Payoff:
 Nutritional Interventions
 Bednets for Malaria
 Climate Change Gets Short Shrift Because of
Uncertainty and Long Time Horizon, Despite its
Potentially Catastrophic Dimensions

32. „Neuroeconomics‟ and the
Hyperbolic Time Function
 Experiments Show that People Don‟t Discount the
Future the Way Economists Think they Should
 They Use a Hyperbolic Function Instead of an
Exponential
 Demand Immediate Short-Term Gratification
 Short Payback on Conservation Investments
 But Also Value the Very Long-Term
 The Public Does Show Concern about Global
Warming, Extinctions, and the Harm they will do to our Great-
Grandchildren

33. Risk and Uncertainty

34. RISK: Exposure to the Possibility
of Unfortunate Consequences
 Nothing is Risk-Free!
 Almost Any Decision is a Choice Between Risks
 In a Risk, The Danger is Known -- But to
Whom?
 A Statistical Association -- Roll Dice
 Equity: Who Bears Extra Risk?
 Especially Vulnerable Populations
 People or Countries w/o Clout or Capacity
 Priority: Can Risks Be Compared?

35. Risk Assessment vs.
Risk Management
 Risk Assessment: An „Objective‟
Assessment of the Magnitude of a
Risk and of Who Will Bear it
 Risk Management: the Management
and Policy Response

36. Philosophies of Risk
Management
 Utility Based (Overall Cost/Benefit)
 Rights-Based (They Can‟t Do That to
Me Without my OK)
 Technology Based (Use the Best
Technology and Go Ahead and Do It)

37. Approaches to Risk
Management
 Prevent the Cause?
 Reduce Exposure?
 Mitigate the Risk?
 Change Public Perceptions or
Expectations?
 Compensate Those Who Bear the
Risk?

38. Risk Assessment Assumes that
Probabilities of Damage are
Known, at Least Within a
Reasonable Range. It is Based on
 Empirical Analysis of the Statistical
Relationship Between Exposure and Effect
When Data are Available
 Fault Analysis in Situations that Haven‟t
Happened Yet
 Rasmussen Report on Nuclear Power Shows Both the
Potential and the Hazards of this Method
 Risk Assessment is a Predictive Technique;
Precaution is an Attitude.

39. UNCERTAINTY:
We Don’t Know What Will Happen
 Scientific Uncertainty: Scientific Basis for
Prediction is Lacking
 Technological Uncertainty: We Don‟t Know
Whether a Technology Can be Developed or
Will Work
 Uncertainty in Impact of Technology -- We
Don‟t Know Who Will be Helped or Hurt. It
Depends on Many Factors External to the
Technology

40. Rumsfeld Classes of Uncertainty
 Things we Know
 Things We Know that We Don‟t Know
 Things We Don‟t Know that We Don‟t
Know

41. Technology Assessment as Now
Practiced Involves
 Broad Expertise
 Involvement of Stakeholders
 Transparency
 Respect for Local and Traditional
Knowledge
The Office of Technology Assessment was
Abolished by Congress in 1995 – a Great Loss to
the Country

42. The Environmental Impact
Statement: The Most Common
Form of Technology Assessment
 Environmental Impact Assessments are
Environmentally Oriented Risk Assessments.
They are the Basic Instrument for Assessing the
Environmental Costs and Benefits of Proposed
Policies and Projects.
 Too Often, Environmental Impact Assessments
Required by Law have become Sales Documents
for Projects Carried out After the Project is a
Done Deal. Consulting Firms Need the Repeat
Business.

43. The Public‟s Understanding
of Science is Limited
 Noone Can Know All the Science that May Affect
Policy
 When Something Affects Them, People Learn
 NGOs and Epistemic Communities May be Key
Intermediaries
 Many are Highly Professional and
Responsible, Others Less So
 But Policy Issues Involve Values, not Just Science

44. Risk Communication
 Scientists Typically Assume that the Problem
Lies in a Lack of Public Understanding, and
Seek to Overcome this through „Education‟ –
i.e., Attractively Packaged Information.
NOT THE RIGHT APPROACH
 Instead, Start with What People Care About and
What They Already Know – or Think They
Know. Capture their Attention, Overcome any
Common Misconceptions Respectfully and Then
Add Information, Respecting the Range of
Values in the Population.

45. Public and Expert Attitudes
Towards Risk Often Differ
 Public is Less Likely to Accept
 Risk Outside their Choice or
Control
 Risks that Produce Minor Benefit
 Risks, However Small, of Major
Catastrophe
 Dreaded Risks, esp. Nuclear
Accident, Especially When
Promised Benefits are Small
 Public Attitudes May Not
Change with More Information

46. Take-Home Message:
Technology Assessment is a Mix of
Technology and Values
Expert Analysis and
Participative Political Process
Government and Business

47. Technology Assessment Helps
Government to Integrate
Technology into Policy
 Guide Technology into Desirable Directions
 Encourage Favorable Impacts
 Anticipate and Prevent or Mitigate
Undesirable Effects
 Environment
 Safety
 Ethics
 Social Impact

48. Technology Assessment
Helps Business to Avoid
Failure to Anticipate
 Technological Transition
 (Friden Calculators)
 Potential Liability
 Mattel and Lead-Painted Toys
 Consumer Reaction
 Monsanto and Genetically
Modified Food crops
 Impact on Corporate Image
 Merck, Vioxx and Heart
Disease