1. ...and
recent
Recovery from Disaster
events in
The L'Aquila, Padang and Emilia
Christchurch earthquakes
David Alexander
University College London
2. Causes of disaster
natural geophysical,
technological, social
RESILIENCE
History
Human Adaptation single and
cultures to risk cumulative
constraints impact
and of past
opportunities disasters
IMPACTS
4. The process of
disaster risk
+
• utilised Disaster
reduction • adopted risk
(DRR) • learned reduced
Analysis
Past
events Lessons
• registered
- •
•
archived
forgotten
Vulnerability
maintained
• ignored
5. We need an evidence-based approach to:-
• the performance of structures in earthquakes
status of knowledge: systematic
• the behaviour of people in earthquakes
status of knowledge: unorganised
• the economics of seismic risk and impact
status of knowledge: patchy
• the epidemiology of injuries in earthquakes
status of knowledge: haphazard
• the nature and remediation of multi-
faceted vulnerability to earthquakes
status of knowledge: unsystematic .
6. What was this absurd structure
doing in a seismic zone?
Sant'Agostino di Ferrara (FE), 20-5-2012
8. L'Aquila
central Italy
6 April 2009
magnitude 6.3
308 dead
Christchurch
New Zealand
22 February 2011
Padang magnitude 6.3
Sumatra, Indonesia 185 dead
30 September 2009
magnitude 7.6
1,115 dead
9. The L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009
• magnitude 6.3, duration 25 seconds
• acceleration on hard rock 0.3g,
on soft sediments 0.7-1.0g
• part of an earthquake swarm
that has lasted many months
• the first earthquake with
epicentre very near a major
urban centre in Italy since 1915.
11. Government policy on shelter
• 22,000 people in hotels: common
solution - unsuccessful in Irpinia, 1980
• 21,000 people in tents for
6-8 months: radical departure
• transitional accommodation ready
for 65% of survivors in 8 months:
major achievement, but controversial.
13. • 4,600 apartments in 184 buildings
on 19 sites - for 15,500 residents
• €280,607 per apartment (€3,875
per square meter of living space).
C.A.S.E. - Complessi Antisismici
Sostenibili ed Ecocompatibili
15. M.A.P. - Moduli abitativi provvisori
• standard prefabs without base isolation
• 54 sites, half of them in L'Aquila city
• 8,500 people accommodated.
16. Problems with CASE and MAP sites
• social fragmentation leads to
depression, isolation and marginalisation
• total lack of services and transportation
• induced dependence on private transport
without infrastructure improvement
• exclusion of single person 'families'.
17. Problems with L'Aquila recovery policy
• stagnation of reconstruction
through lack of funds and planning
• political paralysis and
intimidation by central government
• massive rise in unemployment
plus severe economic deflation
• local inflation, especially of house rents
• loss of basic services.
18. Spontaneous
Some public
stakeholders Individual
in disaster citizens
response Kinship
groups
Disaster
Workplace subcultures
groups
Citizens'
Emergent organisations Charitable
groups Schools NGOs
Organised Established
20. Prevailing style of public buildings
• heavy structure but weak frame
• poor column-beam joints, soft ground floor
• high vulnerability to total collapse
• possible high death toll
• certain loss of critical functions.
24. • rapid deployment of
transitional shelter
• robust plans to progress
to permanent housing
• clear objectives
for reconstruction
generally followed.
28. Liquefaction and
lateral spreading zone Rockfall hazard area
Central Business District
(part demolished)
Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand
29. Heavy emphasis on demolition rather than
recovery of buildings is being driven by
insurance constraints - there is no
inherent reason why this has to be so.
30. This building cost US$800,000
to demolish and it was not
beyond recovery.
31. Demolition of
major buildings
is costly,
technically
demanding and
poses the question
of what to put
in their place:
we trust that
planning will be
sufficiently well
co-ordinated.
33. 'Tabula rasa' - the "clean slate"
approach poses the planning challenge of
how to recreate a city with a good level
of services and a strong sense of place.
34. 80 historic buildings were
demolished in Christchurch
centre within one year: many
others are at severe risk.
35. Although some heritage buildings will be
saved, the building protection legislation
has been made subordinate to planning
decisions based on short-term economics.
36. Christchurch Cathedral is scheduled for
demolition: it is a major world heritage
building designed by George Gilbert Scott.
37. Some damage could have been avoided by
internal buttressing after the September
2010 earthquake. There is no technical
reason why this building need be demolished.
38. The Catholic Cathedral lost its towers
and dome: it is a unique building
in the southern hemisphere.
39. Use of redundant shipping containers, each
filled with 20 tonnes of ballast, to buttress
the building: ugly but cheap and expedient.
40. Use of redundant shipping
containers for temporary
urban regeneration in the
retail sector: successful.
42. Government
Satisfaction paternalism
Social
Inclusive ...or... exclusion
outcomes
Public
participation in Discontent
decision making Discontent
(must be informed)
43. What is welfare?
The provision of
care to a minimum
acceptable standard
to people who are
unable adequately
to look after
themselves.
But we also need
to focus on what
welfare is NOT...
44. Hazards
and risks:
disaster
preparedness Uncertain
future:
Governance:
long-term
democratic Livelihoods:
trends
participation diversity
climate
in decision and security
change
making
capacity
to adapt
RESILIENCE:
managing risks
adapting to change
securing resources
45. Good
Amelioration (functionality
maintained)
Suff- Reco-
ering Transitional very
Earth- Permanent
housing and
quake reconstruction
settlement
Public image Bad
of politicians (functional
National problems)
Political Political impact
Regional Elections
response on reconstruction
Local
A reconstruction model
46. Five key messages
Provision of welfare should not inhibit
processes of recovery and growth.
Resilience is multi-faceted: are inter-
connections more important than facets?
Sustainability applies to disaster
risk reduction as well as daily life.
Governance and protection of
livelihoods are the root of DRR.
Common sense logic doesn't necessarily
drive the politics of disaster recovery.
47. The creation of a culture of civil protection
HABIT
INSTRUMENTS OF
DISSEMINATION
MASS
• mass media
EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign
PROGRAMME
• social networks
• internet
SOCIAL
CAPITAL
Augmentation
48. Sustainable
development
and livelihoods
Public and
Sustainable
political
funding
support
Sustainable
civil protection
programmes
49. Grazie per la
vostra attenzione!
david.alexander@grforum.org
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
