The Art of Clear Thinking.docx

0
Summary
Of
The Art of Clear Thinking
A Fighter Pilot’s Guide to Making Tough
Decisions
by
Hasard Lee

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To Readers
This summary is an overview of the book (The Art of
Clear Thinking: A Fighter Pilot’s Guide to Making Tough
Decisions) written by (Hasard Lee). It is not meant to
serve as a substitute for reading the actual book, but
rather it's intended to give you a general idea of what the
book is about and the main themes and ideas that it
covers.

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INTRODUCTION
One of the things you grow accustomed to as a fighter
pilot is constantly being seconds away from a blazing end.
To give you an idea of how fast these planes can fly, the
author tells a narrative about their experience in an F-16.
After fifteen minutes, the author had completed all but
one of the tests: the maximum speed run. After fifteen
minutes, the author had completed all but one of the
tests: the maximum speed run. After fifteen minutes, the
author had completed all but one of the tests: the
maximum speed run.
The author activated the afterburner by rotating the
throttle outward, enabling him to propel it down a
separate track. This triggered all of the fuel system's
boost pumps, which started sucking gasoline at a pace
that could empty a swimming pool in minutes. The most
essential elements in this essay are that the author was
able to accelerate beyond Mach 1 and achieve the jet's

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service ceiling of fifty thousand feet. The aircraft started
shaking around Mach 1.6 owing to the severe stress of
the air resistance, which is more than three hundred
times what a vehicle suffers at highway speeds. The high
stress of the air resistance led the aluminum-alloy wings
to flap, generating vibrations throughout the aircraft.
It is a continual battle against physics to make an
airplane fly, and it is up to the author's resourcefulness
and decision-making to prevent this from occurring.
Aviation is an unstable system in which a single individual
neglecting to execute their job or doing it incorrectly
might have disastrous consequences. Because of the
harsh nature of aviation, there is a strong emphasis on
decision-making. The accident rate in the early days of
aviation was very high, leading to an almost obsessive
culture focused on advancing aviation safety. When an
aircraft crashes, an inquiry is started to identify lessons
that may be applied to future flights.

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This culture of admitting, comprehending, and correcting
errors ultimately contributed to the commercial aviation
industry's success. Air combat adds another level of
complexity to aviation by requiring pilots to operate their
aircraft safely while contending with weather,
topography, and traffic, among other challenges. The
opposition is often very talented and flexible, always
looking for flaws in their opponents' tactics and
technology. In the ultimate cat-and-mouse game,
decisions are constantly challenged and opposed.
Modern battlefields are as varied as they are lethal.
There are hypersonic missiles that can move at speeds of
nearly a mile per second, stealth planes that appear on
radar to be little larger than a hummingbird, and sensors
that can triangulate targets out to the horizon. The
margin for mistake is very narrow, and every component
of these aircraft is geared toward performance,
frequently at the sacrifice of safety. The jet continued to
shake as the pilot approached 1.6 times the speed of
sound due to the stress of the airflow over the wings and
fuselage. Today's pilots must swiftly adapt to each jet's

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particular strengths and limitations in order to form a
formidable team. As the buffeting worsened, the pilot
started to examine the situation.
He could see from the heads-up display that he was
travelling at Mach 1.6. To rule out the possibility of
indicator mistake and overspending the aircraft, he
checked his backup airspeed gauge and determined that
the stated airspeed was accurate. He then had a look at
The pilot was a six-foot-two-inch pilot who was wearing a
thick survival jacket and an anti-exposure dry suit to
shield himself from the chilly water, according to the text.
The F-16 was built for a pilot 5 feet 10 inches tall,
however the pilot was 6 feet 2 inches tall. Nothing
occurred after centering the rudder, and the sensations
persisted and worsened.
The aircraft could not withstand this, and the pilot was
far beyond the ejection envelope. The pilot recalled a
chat they had some years ago with an old fighter pilot,
Cygon, who was an experienced fighter pilot who had

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just served a staff tour at the Pentagon and was now
being requalified on the F-16. Despite his high rank and
prestige, Cygon spent time with the kids performing
menial tasks around the squadron. This absence of
authority enabled the pilots to openly converse with him,
during which he would explain the complexities of
various strategies and what it takes to succeed. The
narrative of a fighter pilot who had to make a life-or-
death choice when their wings started buffeting is the
most essential information in this book. Cygon had
discovered that in a clean configuration, the F-16 would
start to buffet about Mach 1.6, a recognized region
where aerodynamic forces would combine and intensify
the vibrations.
He said that it was feasible to get through it by moving
faster, despite the fact that the shift in resonance would
lessen the flexing and minimize the vibration. This
anecdote demonstrates how long-forgotten facts might
suddenly return to you when a life-or-death choice must
be made. Because the vibrations were most likely related
to the aircraft's present airspeed, the default choice was

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to keep the aircraft in its existing configuration. The
judgments taken by a fighter pilot throughout a flight are
the most essential aspects in this work. The pilot chose
to gradually press forward on the stick, steepening their
descent to boost acceleration while avoiding
unnecessary stress on the flying controls.
As the tremors worsened, they saw Mach 1.7 on the
heads-up display. The displays got harder to see as the
clock approached Mach 1.8. Everything settled down at
Mach 1.9, and the airspeed reached 1,500 miles per hour.
The cockpit was warm, and the friction of the air was fast
heating the aircraft's skin. As the airplane entered the
heavier atmosphere, its airspeed increased until it
reached the aircraft's structural limit.
Despite the fact that the engine was still producing a lot
of force, the drag from the thick air led the jet to descend
quickly, driving the pilot forward so violently that it
locked their shoulder-harness straps. The role of a fighter
pilot is to make judgments with little information and

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with lives on the line. The most essential takeaway from
this article is that fighter pilots have been at the
forefront of decision-making theory since Air Force
Colonel John Boyd invented the OODA loop based on his
experiences flying missions during the Korean War. Other
outstanding fighter pilots, such as Colonel John Warden
and General David Deptula, have also contributed
significantly to the profession. The capacity to make a
good judgment with insufficient knowledge and a limited
amount of time is a universal talent, not only for fighter
pilots.
The world is a complicated adaptive system with
interrelated choices, and the goal is to discover the
optimum long-term value for the given cost. Many of our
lower-level jobs are now automated, adding power to
every choice we make. This book is a summary of the
lessons learned and how contemporary US fighter pilots
make decisions. A car can travel more than ten times
faster than a horse-drawn wagon, a modern combine
harvester can harvest crops hundreds of times faster
than by hand, and the jet that I fly allows me to be

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thousands of times more capable than I could be on my
own. The gap between making a good choice and making
a terrible one has never been greater.
However, developing judgment and consistently making
effective judgments requires some practice. As fighter
pilots, we've spent a lot of time and effort figuring out
how to improve a human's decision-making capacity.
Training a skilled jet pilot alone costs about $50 million
and takes nearly a decade. This book is a summary of
those teachings, as well as how current US fighter pilots
approach decision-making. This book teaches pilots from
the Dutch, Danish, Israeli, Norwegian, South Korean,
Japanese, and more than a dozen other air forces the
concepts of applied decision-making.
Surgeons, Super Bowl-winning coaches, CIA operatives,
Fortune 500 CEOs, and NASA astronauts have all been
taught it. The most effective approach of transmitting
information is via storytelling, and the book is divided
into three sections: Assess, Choose, and Execute. The

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first stage is to examine the issue, which entails breaking
it down and determining the most critical components.
The second stage is to choose the best course of action,
which entails employing tools to swiftly analyze the
worth of several possibilities. Finally, the third stage is to
put the choice into action.
The principles of fast-forecasting, inventiveness,
execution, and the human-performance lens are the
most significant features in this work. Fast forecasting is
used to create a mental model fast and extrapolate
based on existing intuition. Innovative solutions may
enable exponential value increases. The process of
prioritizing tasks and freeing up mental capacity to
concentrate on the next choice is known as execution.
Emotions may readily upset the mind, which is weak and
prone to biases.
A helix is used to demonstrate how choices are dynamic,
often producing second- and third-order consequences,
and must adjust as situations change. Most aircraft in

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dogfighting end up spiralling toward each other as each
pilot takes choices to place himself in the best possible
position to beat the opponent. I struggled to make
excellent judgments before becoming a fighter pilot and
learning these tactics. I recognized it was critical to
practice these strategies until they became second
nature. Today, although I still make errors every time I fly
and have yet to fly a flawless mission, the gap between
my good and poor judgments is much less.
The most significant aspects in this article are that the
author has progressed to the point where most choices
are straightforward and that he can swiftly prioritize,
analyze, pick, and execute on one option before moving
on to the next. This book is intended to be both useful
and amusing, utilizing narrative to ensure that the
lessons are remembered for a year, five years, or a
decade. The author believes that at the conclusion of the
book, readers will have intentionally mapped out how
they make choices, which are based on their strengths
and weaknesses and often vary depending on the area
they're in and the challenges they're tackling. The most

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crucial aspect is to make careful judgments and then
debrief on how to improve. Over the previous fifty years,
US fighter pilots have evolved into the world's most
competent air force, one that hasn't lost a U.S. soldier to
enemy aircraft since April 15, 1953, and hasn't lost in an
air-to-air confrontation in over fifty years.

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1
ASSESS
Air France Flight 447 took off from Galeo International
Airport in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, heading for Charles de
Gaulle Airport in Paris, France, on May 31, 2009. The
plane was an Airbus A330, a twin-engine jet with a digital
fly-by-wire system and flight computers that keep it from
stalling or exceeding structural limitations. As the plane
soared and levelled off, it flew down the Brazilian coast,
finally merging with the Atlantic Ocean. The aircraft
reached the intertropical convergence zone as it passed
the equator, a region where air from the Southern and
Northern Hemispheres collide, generally generating a
wall of thunderstorms. Brazilian controllers subsequently
lost communication with the flight, but they provided the
aircraft with a "virtual flight plan," which replicated the
aircraft's expected flight route.

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Concerns about the aircraft's location were so strong the
following morning that Air France notified authorities
and an aerial search was initiated from both sides of the
Atlantic. The search for Flight 447's debris off the coast of
Brazil took less than a day, and over a thousand people
were mobilized. The accident site was surrounded by ten
thousand feet of water, and the landscape was rocky. A
specialist ship armed with small submarines was
deployed to discover the debris, but almost two months
had gone by the end of July. The search then moved on
to the next phase, which included mapping the ocean
bottom using towed sonar arrays.
Back in Europe, a task force was formed to investigate
what caused the plane to crash, and it was determined
that there was poor weather along the plane's planned
route of flight, the aircraft's onboard systems had sent
several automated messages broadcasting that there was
a disagreement in the airspeed readings during the final
minutes of the flight, and the plane hit the ocean in an
unusual manner with a high rate of descent. Because of
ice on the plane's pitot tubes, which prompted automatic

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alerts concerning irregular airspeeds, Air France Flight
447 crashed. The investigators hypothesized that the
icing precipitated a series of events that resulted in the
crew losing control of the aircraft. Changes were made
during the following two years to prevent the pitot tubes
from freezing up, and the handoff between air traffic
control centres was upgraded to avoid a similar wait if
another aircraft went missing. However, the wreckage
was not discovered until April 2011, when the team was
on its fourth search effort.
A debris field was discovered in a silty section of the
ocean bottom about thirteen thousand feet under the
surface using autonomous underwater vehicles equipped
with side-scan sonars. The black boxes were discovered
and hauled from the ocean bottom by the French Navy,
who then flew them to Cayenne and then to Paris to be
downloaded and evaluated. This finding stunned the
aviation industry and would go on to teach generations
of pilots about decision-making. Stand-ups are used in
pilot training in the United States Air Force, in which

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students are chosen at random to stand in the centre of
a classroom and are presented a hypothetical emergency.
If a student fails to manage an emergency properly, they
are instructed to sit down and another student takes
over. The performance is meticulously logged and used
to determine the sort of aircraft they will get at the
completion of their pilot training. Stand-ups are disliked
by students, yet they give purposeful experience at
solving hard issues under pressure. Stand-ups need
divergent thinking, since each option has numerous valid
responses and depends on students to comprehend the
second- and third-order repercussions. Many students
found this very challenging since their brains had been
trained in the academic realm.
The procedures that new pilots must follow while
learning to fly the F-16 are the most significant facts in
this work. The first step is to keep the aircraft under
control before analyzing the problem. This implies that,
even in an emergency, the pilot must continue to fly the

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plane and divide their mental efforts between the
problem and the flight. The second stage is to have a
thorough grasp of the issue, which is the first step
toward its resolution. This is an unconventional strategy
given to rookie pilots to keep them from missing this
crucial stage.
Many individuals and organizations have a cognitive bias
in which they assume that the sooner they start
correcting an issue, the sooner it will be solved. The
cockpit of Air France Flight 447 contains a small analogue
clock fitted into the bottom right-hand corner of the
console that dates back to the 1970s. Winding the clock
took just a few seconds of the pilot's attention and
physically stopped them from touching anything else,
enabling them to make better judgments. The first few
hours of the trip were peaceful, with captain Marc
Dubois and second copilot Pierre-Cédric Bonin attending
to regular flight operations while talking about their
personal lives. Marc Dubois has approximately 11,000
flying hours, about half of which he spent as a captain in
charge of the aircraft.

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Pierre-Cédric Bonin, on the other hand, seemed
inexperienced and jumpy, even during basic chores.
David Robert, another experienced pilot with over 6,500
flying hours, was also on board the plane, although he
had just transferred to a managerial position at the
airline's operations centre and only flew on occasion to
keep his pilot's license. After three and a half hours of
typical operations, the aircraft approached the storms on
the boundaries of the intertropical convergence zone
and started passing through the upper-layer clouds. The
turbulence increased, and a phenomena known as Saint
Elmo's fire started to occur, in which the storm's electric
charge generated blue and violet fluorescent flashes
across the cockpit glass. Copilot Robert then enters the
cockpit and takes the captain's position, leaving Bonin in
command of the aircraft.
After the captain has left, Robert and Bonin start talking
about the weather. They had not sought a detour around
the storm cells, unlike other aircraft in the region. The
two copilots then talk about how the exceptionally high

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ambient temperature is keeping them from reaching
their goal altitude. Bonin expresses his gratitude for the
Airbus A330, adding, "Bloody hell, thank God we're in an
A330, eh?" Robert responds coolly, "Dead right." The
most essential information in this paragraph is that Bonin
is concerned about ice on the wings and advises
employing the anti-icing system.
Robert recognizes that the radar equipment has not been
tuned to the proper mode, and they are now heading
straight towards an area of high activity. Bonin starts to
bank the aircraft to the left when a weird odour of
charged electricity fills the cockpit, accompanied by a rise
in temperature. The scent is recognized by Robert as
ozone, a byproduct of the electrically charged storms
they are travelling through. The plane then encounters
hail, which is humid tropical air pulled up from the ocean
and swiftly freezing at high altitude. Bonin is becoming
more uneasy as he continues to defer to Robert on what
they should do.

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The Airbus A330 features three pitot tubes that measure
the aircraft's speed. Unfortunately, all three got blocked
almost simultaneously, confusing and disconnecting the
autopilot. Bonin and Robert are now in command of the
jet, although Bonin is perplexed as to why the autopilot
failed. To do this, Bonin must compare the airspeed
indicator to other cockpit instrument data such as
ground speed, altitude, attitude, and rate of ascent. This
would enable Bonin to ignore the airspeed indication
while flying off the other instruments.
Because of the extreme outside temperature, the Airbus
A330 is climbing steeply. Bonin pushes back on the stick,
causing the plane to accelerate to 7,000 feet per minute.
Robert, the veteran pilot, is in a tough situation since he
has been demoted to a backup position. Unlike previous
aircraft, the Airbus flying controls were not meant to
display the pilot what the other pilot was doing with their
side stick. Robert knows the situation, and the most
serious concern is stalling, which occurs when the
aircraft's speed reduces to the point where it can no
longer create enough lift and starts to fall.

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Unfortunately, once the flight computers realized they
were receiving incorrect data from the pitot tubes, the
system went into backup mode and turned off the flight
envelope protection mechanism. Due to turbulent
airflow over the wings, Flight 447 stalls, resulting in an
alert and a synthetic voice stating, "Stall, stall!" Robert
calls for the captain to return to the cockpit right now.
Robert suspects wing icing and turns on the wing deicing
system. To pinpoint the issue and get an accurate view of
the plane's status, Robert switches the avionics to
standby mode.
After spending so much time concentrating on
controlling the avionics, Robert starts to lose situational
awareness and becomes as perplexed as Bonin. Robert
takes control and attempts to counter the roll, but Bonin
pulls back on his stick with full power, stalling the plane
and perplexing Robert even more. The aircraft is falling at
nearly 10,000 feet per minute, yet since Bonin is still
pushing back on the stick, the nose is pointed up, as if it
is rising. When the anti-ice system is turned on, the pitot

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tubes swiftly melt the ice and display an accurate
forward airspeed of less than 70 miles per hour. When
Captain Dubois arrives to the cockpit, the instrument
panel is lighted with master caution and warning lights,
and his two copilots are screaming at him that the plane
is out of control.
Bonin then adjusts the engine levers to idle, which is the
reverse of what is required, and the nose dives. He then
activates the air brakes, worsening the issue. Robert and
Captain Dubois are debating the issue and why the plane
has lost control. Robert completely extends the engine
levers, and the engines begin to produce maximum
thrust. Bonin seemed to be the most perplexed,
questioning if they are indeed sinking.
Robert pulls his stick forward in an effort to break the
deadlock, but Bonin continues to draw back on his stick.
At 2,000 feet, the aircraft's ground proximity warning
system activates, triggering a synthetic voice that
exclaims, "Pull up! "Raise your hands!" With little

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prospect of survival, the captain instructs them to pull up
to mitigate the force of the hit. At 123 miles per hour,
the plane crashes into the ocean one-point-four seconds
later.
The crash, which was more than 51 times the force of
gravity, shattered the aircraft, which rapidly fell into the
water. The tremendous trauma killed all 228 passengers
and crew members on impact. The most crucial point in
this book is that none of the pilots had an accurate
mental picture of what was going on until it was too late.
Bonin moved without first analyzing the situation, pulling
completely back on the stick, a risky manoeuvre for a jet
full of people flying at 35 thousand feet in the thin
atmosphere. Throughout the stall, Robert, the more
experienced copilot, was still near to identifying the issue.
In hindsight, the captain should have given over control
of the plane to an inexperienced copilot before flying
into the storm, since he lost situational awareness and
became a passenger. Captain Dubois never had a chance

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to form an appropriate mental representation of the
scenario until Bonin revealed that he had been keeping
the stick back the whole time. It was too late by then.
Aviation is a high-wire act in which a single bad judgment
may have disastrous consequences. This is why there is a
significant emphasis on decision-making, always with the
question "Is it actionable?" in mind. Academic theory
alone will not enough; training will only be beneficial if it
can be applied in the actual world.
When a pilot crashes, pity for the pilot and their family
arises, as does an ancient adage: "Every instructor,
supervisor, and contemporary who ever spoke to him
had an opportunity to influence his judgment," and "a
little bit of all of us goes with every pilot we lose." The
relationships we have with the world around us are
formed by the choices we make, and we can only get
adequate comprehension of the situation by first
examining it. We employ a cross-check to develop our
evaluation while flying fighters. Instruments, vibrations,
g-forces, radio calls, sirens, and the smell of smoke or
fumes all add to the model. The goal is not to fixate on

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one data source at the cost of the others, since this might
lead to losing sight of the overall picture.
A vital talent necessary to handle our increasingly
complicated world is the capacity to make sense of a
chaotic environment while simplifying and organising
information. We are bombarded with hundreds of times
more information than past generations, and we must
swiftly filter through the noise to comprehend critical
components of a system in order to make a significant
effect given our time and resources. This necessitates
judgment, which necessitates nonlinear thinking.
Question&Answers To Reflect On
What were some factors that contributed to the
crash of Air France Flight 447?

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The crash of Air France Flight 447 was likely caused by a
combination of factors, including poor weather along the
planned route, the presence of thunderstorms in the
intertropical convergence zone, and the formation of ice
on the plane's pitot tubes, which measure airspeed. The
icing on the pitot tubes led to inconsistent airspeed
readings and triggered automated messages indicating a
disagreement in airspeed. However, it was the crew's
response to these events that ultimately resulted in the
loss of control of the aircraft.
How did the crew of Air France Flight 447 handle
the emergency situation?
The crew of Air France Flight 447 faced an emergency
situation when the aircraft encountered turbulence and
adverse weather conditions. The recordings from the
cockpit voice recorder showed that the captain, Marc
Dubois, maintained a calm and thoughtful demeanor,
serving as a mentor to the crew. The copilot, Pierre-Cédric
Bonin, who was less experienced, appeared jumpy and

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unsure of his decisions. The third copilot, David Robert,
had been resting and had recently transitioned to a
management job. The crew's response to the emergency
was not effective in resolving the situation, and they
ultimately lost control of the aircraft.
What lessons can be learned from the crash of Air
France Flight 447?
The crash of Air France Flight 447 highlighted the
importance of maintaining aircraft control and
thoroughly analyzing the situation before taking action.
The crew's failure to maintain control of the aircraft and
their lack of effective decision-making contributed to the
tragedy. The incident emphasizes the need for pilots to
receive training in handling emergencies and making
critical decisions under pressure. It also underscores the
significance of experience and effective communication
within the cockpit, as well as the importance of ongoing
training and proficiency for pilots.

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2
POWER LAWS
The narrator is a novice fighter pilot learning how to
make the shift from pilot to fighter pilot. They are flying
the renowned F-16 Fighting Falcon, sometimes known as
the Viper by fighter pilots, and are learning how to
maximize performance while balancing risk and reward
against a thinking foe. They are up against one of the
base's most experienced instructor pilots, a full-bird
colonel who has several combat deployments and has
saved a group of US troops from being overwhelmed by
the enemy. The narrator rolls inverted and pushes back
on the stick as their planes pass each other. The g-forces
swiftly escalate, and the narrator is subjected to nine
times gravity, with over two thousand pounds of force
pressing them into their seat.

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The narrator is now subjected to nine times gravity, with
almost 2,000 pounds of force pressing them into their
seat. The consequences of a G-LOC (g-force induced loss
of consciousness) on a fighter pilot are the most essential
information in this essay. To counteract the
consequences, the pilot began an anti-G straining
manoeuvre while wearing a G suit with air bladders to
prevent blood from flowing into them. Even with their
equipment and experience, the pilot could feel the
affects as blood drained from their brain and their
peripheral vision shrunk. The pilot attempted to fire a
missile at the enemy while simultaneously shielding their
aircraft with flares to disguise their heat signature.
However, they were both inside the minimum range for
their missiles within seconds, and the conflict would now
most likely be won by the gun. The narrator and their foe
were flying so close together that the narrator could read
lettering on the side of their plane. The storyteller was
five knots or six miles per hour too slow for the
manoeuvre. To match the bold tactic, the narrator raised
their wings and pushed straight up, pressing harder on

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the throttle in the hopes that the jet would provide them
with greater power. However, when the narrator
approached the top of the loop, their velocity suddenly
fell, and they were about to encounter a perilous flying
state.
The narrator attempted to abort the manoeuvre and roll
off into the distance, but the jet was too sluggish. As the
afterburner battled gravity, the narrator was balancing
on the tail of their aircraft, and they started slowly
travelling backward, something the F-16 was not built to
accomplish. The F-16 has many flight computers to
monitor its performance, and the nose of the fighter
snapped down at 2.4 g's. The pilot was yanked from their
seat with almost 500 pounds of force, and the blood in
their body surged forward, filling their head and eyes
with blood and colouring their vision a shade of red. At
that pace, they'd already fallen 5,000 feet, and the jet's
nose slashed through the air in a figure-eight motion,
looking for airflow.

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The pilot had to pull the yellow-and-black ejection lever,
causing the canopy to blast off and igniting a rocket
motor in their seat, separating them from the aircraft
rapidly. According to the emergency checklist, using the
speed brakes may result in loss of aircraft control, and
loss of aircraft control may occur quickly at speeds less
than XXX knots. Pilots must be able to analyze a situation
rapidly and map out crucial information to add into their
mental model. This talent has far-reaching applications
outside of the cockpit, since many situations in life are
nonlinear, with little adjustments producing enormous
results. Replacing a 10 MPG truck with a 20 MPG truck,
for example, is a greater improvement than replacing a
20 MPG vehicle with a 50 MPG car.
This is due to the fact that the modern truck consumes
1,000 gallons of gas every year, whilst the automobile
consumes 500 gallons. Replacing the truck will save 500
gallons of petrol, however replacing the automobile
would only save 300 gallons of gas. The most essential
features in this work are connected to the idea of power
laws, which regulate systems in which a little change in

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one aspect may cause a big change in another,
independent of the beginning circumstances. Power laws
describe systems in which a little change in one element
may have a significant impact on another, independent
of the starting circumstances. For example, when
someone begins working out for the first time, they will
notice immediate improvement as their strength
develops rapidly, but their gains will ultimately begin to
decline despite putting in the same amount of effort.
This is why the margin between Olympic athletes is so
tight, since everyone has optimized their bodies and
tactics and is now competing for fractional increases in
performance. Power laws are crucial to consider while
making choices because they might have a
disproportionate impact on results. Stanford students
brought a new algorithm dubbed BackRub to a business
conference at Fuki Sushi in Palo Alto, California in 1997.
The algorithm was groundbreaking because it could bring
order to the internet in a scalable manner. The internet
had swiftly degraded into a digital Wild West, making
standardization impossible, and anybody could post their

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ideas, photographs, goods, and code in whatever format
they choose.
Everyone was now wondering how to arrange the
massive amount of information in a sensible manner. The
creators of Excite.com, the world's second-largest online
portal and the fourth-most-visited website on the
internet, are the most relevant information in this book.
Excite was unusual in that it was founded as a tech firm
focused on the infrastructure underlying the content,
providing them a technical edge over their rivals and
propelling them to the top of the world's fastest-growing
corporations. Despite their company's growth and price,
the founders realized that solving the search issue was
critical to its long-term survival. Excite was unusual in
that it was founded as a tech firm focused on the
infrastructure underlying the content, providing them a
technical edge over their rivals and propelling them to
the top of the world's fastest-growing corporations.

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Despite their company's growth and price, the founders
realized that solving the search issue was critical to its
long-term survival. The search issue in the early 2000s
was straightforward: users put terms into a search box
and compared how often they appeared on webpages.
This strategy, however, was only effective in academic
contexts with a few thousand individuals submitting
high-quality, standardized information. This led to a
growing consensus among experts that the internet
could not be tamed and so would not be as
transformative as they had thought. Portals attempted to
examine additional criteria, such as keyword
capitalization, font size, and location, to assist narrow
down the results.
However, it quickly became a cat-and-mouse game in
which websites would include attractive keywords—
often in language that was unseen to the user—
throughout their pages in order to attract more visits.
The Stanford students, on the other hand, approached
the challenge in a different manner. They saw the links—
what users clicked on to travel through a page—as

35
analogous to the citation pages at the back of their
school textbooks. In retrospect, this was an exceedingly
basic premise that the main portals had overlooked. Four
students created the BackRub algorithm to map the
internet's connection network.
To do so, they required to create a detailed map of the
internet's network structure, similar to how airline routes
appear on a map. To do this, they utilized a web crawler,
an automated tool that follows and indexes the
connections it discovers. As a result, the algorithm was
able to exceed the competition in a scalable manner. The
Excite founders started entering search queries and were
pleasantly surprised by the results. After learning how
the algorithm operated, the creators realized that this
was the internet's future.
Excite could have the algorithm for $1.6 million, but they
had no means to commercialize it and had previously
been turned down by numerous other firms. The
students wanted to sell the algorithm but had no method

36
of monetizing it and had been rejected by numerous
other firms. Stanford students launched Excite with the
goal of bringing order to the internet in a scalable
manner. The founders, however, did not have authority
over their own firm. Because of their highly leveraged
computer code, technology businesses compete in one
of the most competitive business settings, allowing them
to grow very quickly.
In order to compete in this climate, start-ups often spend
years without making a profit, investing tens of millions
of dollars on business infrastructure and talent
acquisition before hoping for broad acceptance and the
riches that come with it. They resorted to a venture
capital firm to assist solve their financial crisis, and in
exchange for investment, they handed over the bulk of
their business. Venture capital businesses were
controlled by extremely talented individuals who had
graduated from prestigious universities but lacked in-
depth knowledge of the internet. They felt that if a firm
wanted to be considered seriously, it should be led by a
corporate executive, generally from the Ivy League.

37
Excite was renamed and the founders were moved down
the corporate ladder as soon as the venture capital
company took control.
They then charged a search firm with finding a new CEO,
George Bell. George had a Harvard education and a
reputation for being a brilliant salesman. In return for a
20% share in the firm, he was able to swiftly make Excite
the exclusive search engine of America Online. He
subsequently entered into a seven-year relationship with
financial behemoth Intuit for an additional 19% interest
in Excite. To expand his user base, he bought Netbot, a
comparative shopping search engine, and later that year
secured an agreement with Ticketmaster to enable direct
online tickets.
George W. Bush's goal was to blitzkrieg throughout the
internet, seizing important regions such as 10% of
America Online's home screen and funnelling traffic into
Excite.com's portal. George purchased Magellan for $18
million to solve the rising spam issue, giving Excite one of

38
the best website-rating teams. Following a discussion at
Fuki Sushi, the founders of Excite requested George for
permission to purchase the BackRub algorithm, but he
declined. The Stanford students were able to convince
their venture capital company to reconsider, lowering
their asking price to $750,000. After configuring the
machines, they launched BackRub in one window and
Excite's portal in the other, comparing which was
superior.
BackRub, a search engine created by Stanford University
students, outperformed Excite's search results, but only
marginally. However, George had had enough and turned
down the $750,000 offer. BackRub was later evolved by
the students into an anti-portal, with just a tiny search
box and two buttons on the screen. This enabled the
website to load more quickly, which was one of their
main concepts. The internet scene has altered drastically
since that encounter in the winter of 1997.

39
Excite shortly joined with @Home Network in a $6.7
billion mega-merger, making it the biggest merger of two
internet firms at the time. However, the company
disintegrated within two years due to significant losses,
causing a 90% decline in stock value and prompting them
to file for bankruptcy. The firm was subsequently
dismantled and sold at a loss to its former rivals. Stanford
students invested in search and created a system in
which marketers bid to be linked with terms that
consumers looked for. They later changed their name to
Google, and the company is now worth more than $1.5
trillion.
George lacked a thorough understanding of power rules
and how they applied to the challenges he was
experiencing. He didn't understand how the internet's
exponential development would fundamentally affect
the system in which he worked. Hiring teams of
journalists to evaluate websites was a linear answer, but
the internet enabled anybody with a computer to create
a website in a matter of hours, resulting in a stunning
increase in the number of websites. George missed it

40
because the internet had not yet reached the knee in the
curve. Today, a firm like Excite would need well over a
hundred thousand journalists to manually analyze
websites.
According to the power law, often known as Metcalfe's
Law, the value of a network rises exponentially with the
total number of users. Web portals were a bottleneck,
limiting the amount of connections that users could
make, but Google's search engine erased the bottleneck,
allowing consumers to access the full power of the
internet while remaining controlled. As a consequence,
people quickly adopted Google's search engine, resulting
in the demise of the online portals. The network effect is
so significant that it may now account for 70% or more of
a digital company's worth. Power laws are applied in
numerous domains, including physics, engineering,
biology, psychology, economics, meteorology,
criminology, and many more.

41
Kleiber's law illustrates that the metabolism of an animal
does not scale linearly with its size, but rather follows a
power law. This is why a mouse lives just a few years
whereas a whale may live for over eighty years. During
the evaluation step of the ACE Helix, being able to
immediately identify a variable as complying to a power
law is crucial. There are hundreds of individual power
laws in practically every known area, but we can distill
them all down to three basic categories, enabling us to
swiftly prioritize our cross-check.
Why are fighter aircraft considered unstable
systems?
Fighter aircraft are considered unstable systems because
they are designed to be highly maneuverable and operate
at the outer edges of their performance envelope. They

42
have inherent instability that allows for quick and agile
maneuvers, but it also means that small inputs or errors
can lead to catastrophic consequences. The aircraft's
design and flight controls require constant adjustments
and corrections from the pilot to maintain stability and
control.
How does nonlinear thinking apply to decision-
making?
Nonlinear thinking refers to understanding and
accounting for power laws, which are relationships where
small changes can result in significant outcomes. In
decision-making, nonlinear thinking means recognizing
that small inputs or changes can have disproportionate
effects on the final outcome. Linear thinking, on the other
hand, assumes that changes in inputs lead to
proportional changes in outcomes. By embracing
nonlinear thinking, individuals can make more accurate
assessments of complex problems and avoid making
decisions based on flawed linear assumptions.

43
What is a knee in the curve in the context of power
laws?
In the context of power laws, a knee in the curve refers to
a point where the relationship between two variables
changes rapidly. It marks a transition from gradual or
incremental changes to a steep or exponential change. In
decision-making, identifying the knee in the curve is
crucial because it signifies the point where the impact of
a specific action or input becomes significantly greater.
Understanding knees in the curve allows individuals to
focus their efforts on the areas that yield the most
substantial results or changes.

44
3
LEARNED LESSONS
The strategies adopted by the United States are the most
relevant aspects in this book. Rangers from the United
States Army in Afghanistan. After many hours of armed
surveillance, the wingman and I were rushing across the
nation in our F-16s to accompany a convoy of US military
vehicles. Army Rangers who had been attacked and were
now trapped down. The wingman and I started dropping
500-pound GPS-guided bombs on various ISIS machine-
gun emplacements.
When our bombs ran out, we switched to our laser
rockets, which were unusual in that they could be
continually directed by a laser on board the aircraft.
When combined with our targeting pods, this created a
devastating combination ideal for fighting the enemy in
Afghanistan. The steps a pilot must take to become

45
proficient at strafing are the most significant facts in this
article. To become proficient in strafing, a pilot must first
establish a solid academic grasp of the technique in order
to swiftly account for changing air circumstances, and
then translate this understanding into flying intuition. To
become proficient in strafing, a pilot must first establish
a solid academic grasp of the technique in order to
swiftly account for changing air circumstances, and then
translate this understanding into flying intuition.
To become proficient in strafing, a pilot must first
establish a solid academic grasp of the technique in order
to swiftly account for changing air circumstances, and
then translate this understanding into flying intuition.
The principles of strafing and unguided bomb delivery,
which are difficult owing to the speeds at which they fly,
are the most essential features in this article. Because of
the direction of the bullets being fired, as well as the dive
angle and speed, which often surpassed 600 miles per
hour, the geometry of strafing and unguided bomb
delivery is difficult. To perform the manoeuvre correctly,
the pilot had to account for the bullet trajectory, dive

46
angle, and changing interaction between the aircraft and
the weapon. Heuristics, or mental shortcuts, were
utilized to swiftly set up the proper settings.
One of the most helpful was the notion of canopy codes,
which enabled the pilot to wait until the target was
aligned on a specified spot on their canopy before rolling
in. This was a fantastic trick, but the F-16's canopy made
it more harder to master than in other aircraft. The F-16
features a bubble canopy that allows a near 360-degree
vision surrounding the pilot, although it lacks tangible
markings. They measured the distance from the goal to
the bottom of the canopy with grease pencils and
extended hands as pupils. It became automatic after
hundreds of strafings.
As the sky darkened, the pilot saw muzzle flashes from
the ISIS terrorists' weapons as they continued to fire at
the Rangers. He swooped down and tightened his orbit
around the target. The clouds were now an issue, which
meant he had to manoeuvre around them while

47
constantly adjusting his distance from the objective. The
pilot hadn't moved their gaze away from the adversary
since witnessing the initial muzzle flash, so this would be
a completely manual pass depending on the flying
reflexes they'd developed over the years. The F-16 Viper
is one of the world's best-turning fighters, yet its flight
path arcs across the sky rather than closely turning like a
vehicle.
This implies that while flying the Viper, you must predict
where the aircraft will be long in ahead, otherwise you
will crash into the earth. To tackle the tactical dilemma,
the pilot had to combine academic knowledge with
heuristics and repeatedly rehearse the manoeuvre. The
Air Force's training had provided the pilot with the
required mental framework, allowing them to envision in
their minds the precise route they needed to follow to
avoid the mountains and how near they would come to
the terrain. The most crucial information in this
paragraph are that the pilot engaged military power,
moved the aircraft's nose toward the target, and
triggered the jet's strafe mode. They were now plunging

48
toward the objective at speeds exceeding 500 miles per
hour.
When they were within shooting range, they pressed the
trigger and fired 6,000 bullets per minute. They let go of
the trigger and drew back on the stick, feeling the g-force
shove them into the seat. The rising terrain made the
recovery difficult since it was virtually the same grade as
their recovery, which meant that while they rose, they
stayed the same distance above the ground. They finally
crossed through the ridgeline gap and intensified their
pull, feeling their mask push down on their face. The
strafing pass was successful, but the Rangers were still
under fire and demanded another pass right away.
The strafing pass was successful, but the Rangers were
still under fire and demanded another pass right away.

49
The most relevant information in this letter is that the
pilot was on the deployment advance team and had
flown out a week ahead of the rest of the squadron. The
crew had designed a "bingo map" so that pilots could
readily see how much gasoline they needed to go home
no matter where they were in the nation. The pilot
switched off his bingo alert and informed the soldiers
that he would be making one more strafing run. The
darkness made it difficult for him to see as he moved
around the orbit.
As he approached, he saw muzzle fire from the
remaining machine-gun nest. Although the ISIS militants
were most likely only armed with small guns and rocket-

50
propelled grenades, a bullet could still strike a key
portion of the aircraft and bring it down. The F-16 is a
lightweight aircraft, yet its survival is based on its speed
and agility. It was designed to be as light as possible, but
its protection is inadequate for flying near to the ground,
where anybody with a rifle may fire a fortunate shot. As
the grey tree line expanded in my canopy, I could see the
machine-gun nest from whence the fire was originating.
I aimed my reticle towards the source of the firing and let
go of the trigger. The gun fired bullets downrange,
resulting in a field of fire. I kept holding the trigger until
the trembling within the aircraft ceased, indicating that I
had run out of ammo. I yanked hard on the stick, slicing
through the mountain gap. This time, I kept low, below
1,000 feet, while I accelerated on a fuel-saving flying
profile.
When I reached 500 knots, or 575 miles per hour, I
quickly rose into the air on a sky hook for the tanker.
"Good hits, good hits," the controller said over the radio.

51
The most crucial aspects in this book are the formation of
a training exercise called Red Flag, which was developed
out of the Vietnam War, when fighter pilots were being
shot down at an unacceptably high rate. This prompted
the United States to perform a series of covert research.
The Air Force's Project Red Baron revealed that American
pilots were insufficiently qualified for battle. As a result,
pilots were obliged to fly the same scripted flights over
and over again, causing their decision-making capacity to
deteriorate.
Red Flag was established to provide realistic training to
pilots in order for them to restore their capacity to make
clear judgments amid the fog and friction of combat. The
Air Force training exercise Red Flag was staged at Nellis
Air Force Base in Las Vegas. It provided an opportunity
for pilots to fly realistic missions, bridging the gap
between their regular training and the complications of
actually going to war. Dedicated aggressor squadrons
were formed to mimic enemy tactics, and seized enemy
equipment was utilized to add to the realism. Once the
missions were completed, they would be digitally

52
recreated so that the pilots could learn how to perform
better in the future.
Several years into flying the F-16, the unit set out from
the East Coast and flew across the nation for the first Red
Flag. They obtained their parking spaces over the radio
after landing and proceeded through the crowds of other
aircraft and maintainers prepared for the next exercise.
The simulated combat missions that the author flew over
the following three weeks are the most essential aspects
in this essay. These operations were difficult because of
the complexities of executing against well-prepared
adversarial forces in their home base. The mission
debriefs were similarly taxing, with the sun high over the
horizon.
The author has had the chance to participate in about a
dozen comparable exercises over the years, and as their
talents rose, so did their responsibilities. One particularly
memorable operation was the rescue of a pilot who had
been shot down the day before. As the overall

53
commander, it was the author's responsibility to lead a
hundred other pilots and hundreds of support workers in
developing a strategy to retrieve the downed pilot.
Everything from the taxi sequence and aerial refuelling to
the tactics and egress had to be meticulously prepared.
On the day of the operation, the commander was the
first fighter to take off, and over the following thirty
minutes, aircraft took off regularly from the base to
gather the firepower needed to penetrate deep into
enemy territory and defend the helicopters as they made
their way in to rescue the fallen pilot.
The adversary was jamming the radio frequencies,
making communication with the fallen pilot impossible,
and the commander had three options: execute and
hope to locate the downed pilot on the way in, wait and
lose F-22 coverage at the conclusion of the mission, or
abandon the operation entirely. The commander opted
to be aggressive in carrying out the operation, and the F-
22s quickly engaged and shot down enemy jets while the
F-16s I was leading destroyed the surface-to-air missile
sites. The helicopters gradually approached enemy

54
territory, seeking to contact the downed pilot, but their
low altitude made it impossible to pick up the beacon
that the pilot was carrying, causing them to fly slightly off
course on their route to rescue the pilot. They were
fifteen minutes behind schedule by the time they found
him. The mission commander of a military drill failed to
rescue the downed pilot, complicating subsequent
operations.
He made several poor decisions, including allocating a
formation of aircraft flying at a higher altitude to try to
contact the downed pilot, allowing for a longer buffer for
the time it would take the helicopters to pick up the
downed pilot, and deciding to carry out the mission
despite not having contact with the downed pilot. These
bad actions conspired to cause the mission to fail,
resulting in extra airmen in enemy territory,
compounding the situation for subsequent flights. The
mission commander was then required to walk the
hundreds of individuals who had taken part in the
exercise through all of the judgments he had made and
where he might improve. The experiences at Red Flag, as

55
well as other significant exercises that helped the author
refine their decision-making under uncertainty and
pressure, are the most relevant facts in this article. The
author would keep a little notebook with the top lessons
they had learned from each mission and evaluate
comparable missions.
This iterative process aided in the development of their
decision-making to the point that much of it became
second nature. The Choose phase of the ACE Helix is all
about figuring out how the challenges we're dealing with
relate to our final goals. Humans are born with the ability
to learn, but our superpower is not strength, speed, or
size. The history of human development is remarkable
for two things: the gradual fall in our strength and the
increase in the size and complexity of our brains. Our
brains are three times bigger than predicted for primates.
Nature focused only on enhancing our brains at the cost
of everything else. Our brains are strong, but our
capacity to systemize learning and then distribute that

56
knowledge has enabled us to far outpace our biology.
This has enabled us to specialize and become specialists,
and our concentration as fighter pilots has been on
knowing how to use this ability to outlearn our
opponents. A narrative from the United States is used to
explain the phases of the procedure. The evolution from
a preproduction test aircraft to a fully combat-ready
platform is shown by the Air Force.
Only highly experienced pilots who had previously flown
another fighter were qualified to operate the aircraft at
the time. However, as production increased, it was
critical to bring in fresh pilots who could offer continuity
to the program when the more experienced pilots retired.
Because the F-35 program represented a major break
from prior fighter designs, new pilot training had to be
built from the ground up. The stakes were enormous
since it was projected to be the most costly weapons
program in history and to serve as the backbone of US
airpower for many decades. Several teaching and
learning methods were established in order to educate

57
pilots to be as proficient as feasible in the shortest period
of time given their resource restrictions.
These ideas were designed to educate fighter pilots, but
their use is not limited to aviation and may be applied to
a variety of different fields. Learning is about being able
to predict the future rather than memorizing knowledge.
Understanding the cause-and-effect connection of the
environment around us allows us to make choices with
the best possibility of success. A strong mental
framework that can support a wide range of events is
difficult to develop and goes beyond just remembering
data. When the circumstances they're used to alter,
individuals often make stunningly bad judgments.
Combat is one of the world's most dynamic and difficult
arenas, with nations devoting resources and skill to
opposing opponents. Before entering the cockpit, fighter
pilots may be targeted from the air, by ground-based
missiles, electronic jamming, cyberattacks, or enemy
snipers or improvised explosive devices. To create

58
dynamic and adaptable thinkers, they needed to create a
strong mental framework composed of broad principles
and reinforced by lessons learnt via experience. Modern
fighter aircraft are very complicated, with over eight
million lines of code and dozens of distinct submenus
and avionics settings, which means pilots must study
significantly more than ever before. The natural
tendency was to educate pupils using conventional
techniques, which would have been the quickest way to
convey knowledge but would not have allowed them to
retain key material quickly enough to handle complicated
issues.
The most significant information in this book is that
students emphasized ideas above facts and that they
needed to understand how various systems interacted
and how it related to the choices they needed to make.
This technique of learning was symbolized as a tree, with
the leaves representing facts and the trunk and branches
representing concepts. Rather than just passing multiple
choice examinations, this approach of learning was

59
developed to help pupils make better and faster
judgments.
How did the pilot engage the enemy targets in
Afghanistan?
The pilot engaged the enemy targets in Afghanistan
using a combination of GPS-guided bombs and laser
rockets. They dropped bombs on machine-gun nests and
employed the newly approved laser rockets, which could
be guided by a laser on board the aircraft, to engage the
enemy.

60
What challenges did the pilot face during the
strafing runs?
During the strafing runs, the pilot faced several
challenges. They had to maneuver around dense clouds
and mountainous terrain while maintaining a stable orbit.
The geometry of the strafing runs was complex, requiring
precise dive angles and speeds. The pilot had to account
for the changing relationship between the aircraft and
the bullets or bombs being fired, and they had to
anticipate the aircraft's flight path arcs due to its high
speed.
Why did the pilot decide to make one final strafing
pass despite being at minimum fuel (BINGO)?
The pilot decided to make one final strafing pass despite
being at minimum fuel because they were the only
aircraft on station and the troops on the ground were still
under fire. With darkness setting in and poor weather
conditions, it would have been impossible to provide air

61
support during the night. Therefore, the pilot made the
decision to maximize their assistance by making one final
strafing pass before returning to base.

62
4
FAST-FORECASTING
The narrator and their wingman had just returned from a
five-hour attack on a Taliban command-and-control
centre. They were nearly a hundred kilometres away
from Bagram Air Base, yet the base's strong security
lights were turning the dusty air yellow long into the
night. The narrator completed taking notes regarding the
flight and started preparing their avionics for the
approach inside the cockpit. Afghanistan's geography is
exceptionally difficult, with mountains forming the
western edge of the Hindu Kush, rising into the
Himalayas and finally Mount Everest. The narrator had to
organize their hikes to avoid being caught in a valley.
During their mission briefings, they would often remind
themselves that if they were to evacuate over the
mountains, they would have to physically detach from

63
the seat before the parachute launched. Because the F-
16 was supposed to be the most manoeuvrable fighter in
the world, its brakes were identical to those found on a
Toyota Corolla. The runway at Bagram was unusual in
that it only ran in one direction, with a downhill slope. To
land on the narrower runway, the wingman and pilot had
to reduce their weight and have enough gasoline on
board to land at another airport if anything unexpected
occurred. To land on the shorter runway, the wingman
and pilot had to reduce their weight and have enough
gasoline on board to land at another airport if anything
unexpected occurred.
This was a normal night in Afghanistan, with the pilot
having to adjust to shifting situations and solve hundreds
of difficult difficulties. The narrator is on a mission to
Bagram, a huge armoured city that formerly housed over
40,000 military and civilian contractors. It was time to
start burning off their surplus gasoline as they reached
Bagram. The narrator said over the radio, "One's gate,"
and activated their afterburner. The narrator could see

64
hundreds of millions of stars and the Milky Way as they
reached Bagram.
The narrator could see hundreds of millions of stars and
the Milky Way as they reached Bagram. The narrator
could see hundreds of millions of stars and the Milky
Way as they reached Bagram. The narrator could see
hundreds of millions of stars and the Milky Way as they
reached Bagram. The narrator could see hundreds of
millions of stars and the Milky Way as they reached
Bagram. The narrator could see hundreds of millions of
stars and the Milky Way as they reached Bagram.
The most crucial information in this letter is that the
wingman's "go pill" was wearing off and that the base
was being attacked. The wingman saw enormous, bright
orange ropes ascending towards the sky and mistook
them for perspiration. After a few seconds, the wingman
understood that the protective anti-mortar systems on
the base had been triggered. To protect the base from
incoming projectiles, a series of Gatling guns had been

65
placed throughout, and they were operated by an
automated system that identified oncoming mortars and
fired the six-barrel cannons at them. A warning bell
would sound immediately before firing, and the sound
may burst the wingman's eardrums if they didn't protect
their ears before shooting.
A few nights later, one of the guns ignited a few hundred
feet distant, and the high-pitched spin-up of the barrels,
followed by the explosive thunder of seventy-five rounds
being discharged each second, created such a loud noise
that the wingman could feel it vibrate throughout their
body as they were sleeping. The actions made by the
narrator and their wingman when they were assaulted by
three guns from separate locations of the base are the
most essential aspects in this narrative. The narrator
shoved the throttle forward, choosing full afterburner,
and lifted their gear while keeping the airplane level in
order to speed quickly. The narrator then retracted his
grip on the stick, ascending vertically into the sky. The
narrator then saw another cannon explosion as they
sought to confront another mortar fire. The narrator

66
then took inventory of their planes and discovered that
they had depleted their bingo fuel.
The narrator was then forced to make judgments in the
following several minutes in order to live, since the
airstrip was still under assault and had depleted their fuel
supplies. The practice of wagering on the result of a
choice is known as decision-making. When a lion pursues
a gazelle, it weighs the danger vs the benefit and
concludes that the reward outweighs the risk. To
calculate the anticipated value of a choice, subtract the
potential upside multiplied by the chance of it happening
from the possible downside multiplied by the probability
of it occurring. To do so, multiply $1,000 by 80% (0.8) to
receive $800, whereas the downside is $1,000 multiplied
by 20% (0.2).
The difference between them is $600, making it an
excellent bet. However, in the actual world, determining
the precise numbers to use may be challenging,
therefore the answer is to abandon the appearance of

67
accuracy and use a method known as fast-forecasting.
The technique of extending our intuition to estimate the
predicted value of a choice is known as fast forecasting.
Concepts must be learned in order to weave a vast
tapestry of information that allows us to swiftly estimate
a ballpark answer. This enables us to mix the best of our
intuition with the finest of modelling.
In practically every system, there are just a few variables
that drive the system owing to strong power laws—these
are the ones to pay attention to. Slowing down, for
example, is the single most crucial element for life while
ejecting from an airplane, since wind resistance does not
impact the force linearly but exponentially. As a pilot,
this implies that, although there are a dozen measures to
do before ejecting, just slowing down is significantly
more critical than everything else put together.
Compound interest is a crucial concept for investors to
grasp, yet many are focused on boosting their interest
rate. To locate a suitable investment, investors should
focus on time as the most crucial aspect and start
investing as soon as feasible.

68
For example, if a $1,000 investment in the S&P 500
was made thirty years ago, the investor would have
nearly $400,000 while having only put in $72,000. If they
had waited 10 years to invest, they would have needed
to find an investment that could maintain a near 30%
interest rate in order to earn the same amount of money.
The key to fast-forecasting is to avoid being
overwhelmed by details, since logic and reason are at the
heart of the process. Precision is often the enemy of
conceptual thinking, and when a situation becomes too
complicated, investors lose their capacity to swiftly
manipulate pertinent information via the prism of their
ideas, principles, heuristics, and facts. On each flight,
fighter pilots are presented with hundreds of options,
pushing them to prioritize and make judgments as
rapidly as possible.
While flying a fighter is physically tough, it is significantly
more taxing mentally. The Air Force officially demands us
to have twelve hours of crew rest before a mission,
during which we cannot be distracted by any work-

69
related activities. Speed is still vital since time is a
valuable resource that must be utilized wisely. Because
mental capacity is a limited resource, we can only
perform so much thinking in a given length of time
before mental exhaustion starts to impair our judgment.
As a result, every minute we don't make a choice must
be accounted for as a cost.
We will never have a complete grasp of a system, no
matter how hard we try. Fast forecasting is a strategy for
making judgments that can be updated fast and adjusted
when new information becomes available. It makes
sensible to spend extra time obtaining more information
before deciding on a plan of action for crucial and
irreversible choices. The most challenging aspect of quick
forecasting is mental arithmetic, so keep it simple. Even
difficult calculations may be solved mentally using
atypical ways that take advantage of how our brains
work.

70
For example, converting Fahrenheit to Celsius may be
mentally solved by graphically approximating the result
using inverted numbers or having some other mental
hook that makes it easier to recall. Staking is a strategy
used in flying aircraft to speed up decision-making by
extrapolating from memorized statistics. This method is
used to determine the connection between numerous
moving bodies over time, such as when one aircraft is
dogfighting with another or geolocating an enemy
surface-to-air missile system. It is utilized for everything
from fuel management to weapon timing and missile fly-
outs, as well as regulating stealth qualities outside of the
cockpit. Fast forecasting is used to provide a tentative
answer that makes logical sense fast.
In certain circumstances, the anticipated value of options
may be so different that the optimum answer is evident,
and any extra time and bandwidth may be used to make
the next selection. In others, it may swiftly limit down the
choices, allowing additional study to concentrate just on
what is feasible, saving time and money. In the actual
world, fast forecasting is an efficient technique to favour

71
accuracy above precision. It is critical in team situations
to assess how each party sees the issue and apply logic
and reason to discover the best technique for fixing the
problem. In Afghanistan, the radio had been exploding
with conversation as everyone assessed their position.
The mortar assaults had happened during a brief window
of vulnerability for the pilots. They could have diverted to
Mazar-i-Sharif air base, which is several hundred
kilometres to the north, if they had been five minutes
earlier. They were, however, now above the devastated
base, with little gasoline and few choices. When the pilot
calculated their fuel burn rate, he concluded they had
approximately fifteen minutes until they flamed out. The
choices for landing on a damaged runway are the most
relevant elements in this chapter.
The control tower informed the pilots that the extent of
the damage was unclear and that the runway would be
restricted for at least thirty minutes. The pilots could
land on the damaged runway, but the odds of colliding

72
with a mortar shell were minimal. The other option was
to wait and hope that the runway would open before
they ran out of gasoline. The F-16's ACES II ejection seat
is dependable, but there is a high risk of damage from
the crushing force of the rocket motor igniting, which
often breaks a pilot's neck and back. Furthermore, while
flying in a war zone, there is an opponent attempting to
track them down, which must be considered in any
actions.
Before considering more imaginative alternatives, the
storyteller required a worst-case scenario. They
calculated the predicted value of each choice using rapid
forecasting. The runway was 75 feet long, and one to two
mortar rounds had impacted it, each leaving a one-foot
crater. If any of the three tires collides with a damaged
section of the runway, the aircraft may cartwheel, with a
6% risk of colliding with a crater. The narrator assessed
that each of them had a 97 percent chance of surviving.

73
Even if they were wrong by a factor of two, it provided
them confidence that the issue could be handled without
resorting to drastic measures. The United States has lost
over 600 F-16s since they entered service, making the
ACES II one of the world's most dependable ejection
seats. Based on the data, the pilot calculated a 98
percent likelihood of survival during the ejection, which
was comparable to landing on the damaged runway.
However, there was a substantial risk of serious harm
and a 100% possibility of losing the aircraft. Furthermore,
if the pilot did not eject exactly over the base, they risked
being captured or killed by the enemy.
The controller responded that he couldn't approve them
to land on a damaged runway, but they may do so at
their own risk. The underlying message was that if
anything went wrong, the pilot would pay the penalties.
The most essential elements in this essay are the
different survival alternatives. The first option is to use a
sky hook to reach the Mazar-i-Sharif air base. The second
alternative is to see whether an aerial tanker can reach
them in the next few minutes.

74
The third alternative is to check to see whether the
construction work at Kabul International Airport has
been completed for the night. Finally, the fourth
alternative is to see whether an aerial tanker can reach
them within the next few minutes. Finally, the final
alternative is to check to see whether the construction
work at Kabul International Airport has been completed
for the night. Finally, the sixth alternative is to check to
see whether the construction work at Kabul International
Airport has been completed for the night. The wingman
and pilot had seven minutes till their self-imposed
landing time, and the tanker was approaching at full
speed.
The pilot radioed the tower controller to inquire on the
status of Kabul airport, which was wrapping up for the
night and may be cleared in the next five minutes. The
pilot assessed that each of them had a 95 percent
probability of refuelling, which was comparable to
landing on the damaged runway. The advantage was that
if it worked, they would have enough fuel to divert or

75
wait until the runway was repaired, but the disadvantage
was that if anything went wrong, they would be forced to
eject away from their base and above the fifteen-
thousand-foot terrain strewn with ISIS and Taliban
fighters. With that disadvantage, it was definitely wiser
to choose the easier choice and just land without trying
to refuel, but there was a viable third alternative. The
narrator and their wingman intercepted a tanker at a
slower velocity, saving fuel and bringing them closer to
the base.
This hybrid option provided them one refuelling attempt
while still keeping the fail-safe option of landing. The
margins were razor-thin, so even if they were within
arm's reach of the tanker, they would have to abort if
they reached their bingo time. The narrator then gently
steered toward the tanker, taking care not to lose any
velocity, which would necessitate increasing the throttle
and consuming more gasoline. The brilliant lights of the
base faded as they completed the curve, revealing the
black outlines of the mountains. The narrator prayed this
worked and that their fuel meters were correct, since

76
ejecting over these mountains would very certainly be
fatal.
Why did the pilot need to burn off excess fuel
before landing?
The pilot needed to burn off excess fuel to decrease the
aircraft's weight for landing on a shorter runway.
However, they also needed to keep enough fuel onboard
in case they had to divert to another airfield due to
unforeseen circumstances.
What were the risks involved in landing at Bagram
Air Base?

77
Landing at Bagram Air Base presented several risks. The
base was under attack, with defensive anti-mortar
systems actively firing. There was a potential danger of
being accidentally shot down by these systems.
Additionally, the runway had been hit, increasing the risk
of a safe landing. Furthermore, the aircraft's fuel reserves
were low, adding to the criticality of the situation.
How did the pilot use fast-forecasting and mental
modeling to make decisions?
Fast-forecasting and mental modeling allowed the pilot
to simplify the complex situation and approximate the
expected value of their decisions. By relying on their
intuition and understanding of concepts, they could
quickly assess the risks versus rewards of their choices.
This enabled them to prioritize keeping the aircraft under
control, avoid potential dangers, and make critical
decisions for their survival based on a simplified mental
model of the problem at hand.

78
5
CREATIVITY
A dusty rented automobile drove over the tarmac at the
Al Jouf forward operating post in eastern Saudi Arabia on
January 16, 1991. The base's commanding officer had
just received a top-secret transmission indicating that
their mission had been approved, signalling the start of a
huge, coordinated onslaught against Saddam Hussein's
dictatorship. The entire community responded with
terror and indignation, with the UN Security Council and
the Arab League both denouncing the invasion and
demanding that Iraqi soldiers evacuate immediately. To
safeguard the nation, President George H. W. Bush
authorized Operation Desert Shield, deploying two naval
battle groups as well as hundreds of US Air Force F-15s
and F-16s for round-the-clock air patrols.

79
In the event that diplomatic and economic measures
failed, General Norman Schwarzkopf Jr. started
preparations for an aggressive assault to remove
Saddam's troops from Kuwait. The air battle was planned
in the basement of a Royal Saudi Air Force headquarters
in Riyadh known as the "Black Hole." The strategists laid
out the fundamentals of a four-phased strategic air
campaign, including a key initial attack to destroy early-
warning radar facilities in western Iraq. Iraq's army was
the world's fourth biggest, with over a million troops and
a multilayered air defence system that included over 700
tactical aircraft and 16,000 surface-to-air missiles. The
KARI system was placed in an underground bunker just
outside of Baghdad, which was the world's most highly
fortified position. One of the major targets for the war's
first attacks was to destroy the KARI system, which would
leave numerous forces without direction and unable to
launch a coordinated defence.
However, since it was such a fortified target deep inside
enemy territory, attacking it directly was impossible
without first battling into the nation. The KARI system

80
was a network of early-warning radar stations on Iraq's
fringes that acted as its eyes. As soon as coalition planes
reached Iraqi territory, they would be identified, giving
Saddam plenty of opportunity to beef up his air defences
and perhaps launch a counterattack with tactical missiles.
Planners identified three radar sides that, if destroyed,
would provide a twenty-mile-wide corridor for the air
attack. The challenge was figuring out how to sneak up
on the radar stations.
If any of the radars detected an assault, they would
instantly notify the KARI system, and the whole Iraqi air
defence system would be activated. Furthermore, the
Iraqis were continuously shifting their equipment,
making them harder to target. To assure the facilities'
destruction, any assault force had to be flexible and
modify their aim locations after they had visually
acquired the targets. Randy O'Boyle, a young captain
assigned to help develop the air war's search-and-rescue
plans for pilots shot down behind enemy lines, proposed
that special forces teams infiltrate the country on the
ground and destroy the sites, allowing them to push

81
deeper into the country and reduce the time it took to
rescue downed pilots. This strategy swiftly gained hold
and was quickly included into the larger military strategy.
However, in September, a major request from the special
forces team came on Schwarzkopf's desk, including
twenty-five GPS-equipped ground vehicles, which
enraged the general. During the conflict, Schwarzkopf
fought with special operations units and rejected the
whole first phase of the air campaign, asking planners to
come up with a better way for eliminating the radar
stations. In the featureless desert, the planners
attempted to develop other answers to the follow-up air
wave assault. Captain O'Boyle devised a plan to traverse
the featureless desert using his Pave Low helicopters
outfitted with GPS receivers and terrain-following radar.
However, due to a lack of firepower, the Pave Lows were
unable to completely destroy the radar installations, so a
plan was devised to partner up with Army AH-64 Apaches
armed with Hellfire missiles, Hydra rockets, and bigger 30
mm machine guns.

82
The concept was modified further, and Schwarzkopf
agreed and authorized it. The united team started
preparing together in the Saudi desert, 700 kilometres
from where the operation would take place. Lieutenant
Colonel Richard Comer of the Twentieth Special
Operations Squadron directed the Pave Lows, while
Lieutenant Colonel Dick Cody of the 101st Airborne
Division oversaw the Apaches. The force would be
divided into three teams—Red, White, and Blue—each of
which would be in charge of eliminating one of the three
early-warning radar installations. Only individuals with a
need to know were informed about the operation,
ensuring secrecy.
Aside from the strategies, there were considerable
mechanical obstacles to overcome. Even under the best
of circumstances, helicopters were notoriously difficult
to maintain, and the Apaches' restricted range was
another issue. Originally, the plan called for a gasoline
station to be built near the border, or perhaps within Iraq,
where Apaches could land and replenish. However, this
increased the complexity and risked alerting the Iraqis, as

83
well as recalling the Desert One disaster, in which a
helicopter crew were consumed in a fire. The most
essential elements in this essay are that one of the
mission's youngest pilots devised a technique to connect
a 1,700-pound external fuel tank to the Apache's inboard
weapons storage space, increasing its range sufficiently
to avoid the requirement for a refuelling base. As a
backup, the Pave Low personnel used fire hoses obtained
from local Saudi fire stations to carry fuel from their own
helicopters to the Apaches.
By the end of November, the United Nations Security
Council had passed Resolution 678, which set a January
15 deadline for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait using "all
necessary means." The task force proceeded to drill in
northern Saudi Arabia, flying at night without moonlight
and on a nap-of-the-earth flight route only fifty feet over
undulating sand dunes. It would have been pointless to
strike one radar location and then another two minutes
later. By December, information revealed that the third
early-warning radar location was not linked to Iraq's air
defence system, implying that it did not need to be

84
destroyed. Task Force Normandy was instructed to
advance to Al Jouf and be in position by nightfall. On
January 14, the task force was instructed to advance to
Al Jouf and be in place by dark.
As part of Task Force Normandy, four Air Force MH-53
Pave Lows and nine Army AH-64 Apache helicopters took
out in two formations on January 17, 1991. The last
phase was to carry out the mission after numerous hours
of preparation and simulations. The Pave Lows were
outfitted with elite Air Force pararescue jumpers as well
as additional Seahawk and Pave Hawk helicopters to give
backup if numerous helicopters went down. The
formations crossed the border into Iraq just after two
a.m. To escape detection from the facilities they were
supposed to bomb, the helicopters flew just fifty feet
above the earth.
The White Team aviators watched as the ground in front
of them lighted up with tracer fire shortly after crossing
into Iraq. The helicopters managed to dodge it, but the

85
mission was jeopardized. The Pave Lows ultimately
arrived at their predetermined drop-off places 10 miles
distant from the radar sites after almost an hour and a
half of altering their flight route to avoid any suspected
enemy observation posts. The Pave Lows then turned off
to wait for the Apaches after dropping infrared chemical
lights out the rear of the helicopters. The Apaches flew
gently over the lights, upgrading their navigation systems
as they approached the radar locations.
They then moved into shooting positions, hovering five
kilometres away from their targets. The lead Apache pilot
broke the stillness by turning on his radio and said, "Party
in ten." All of the crews started shooting their Hellfire
missiles ten seconds later. After firing forty Hellfire
missiles, the Apaches came to within two miles and
started firing Hydra rockets. Finally, they closed in to 800
meters and opened up with their chain guns, launching
four thousand rounds of high-explosive 30 mm cannon
fire at any remaining objectives. The Apaches then flew
above the targets, filming the damage.

86
The Pave Lows then informed headquarters, to which
Schwarzkopf replied, "Thank God." Several handheld
heat-seeking missiles were fired at one of the Pave Lows
as they approached the meeting area. The SA-7s seemed
to be shot correctly, however the helicopters' and IRCMs'
jinking caused the missiles to miss the helicopter. The
two helicopter formations returned to Saudi Arabia,
where they could see hundreds of aircraft from the initial
attack wave flowing through the border. One of the
strike wave fighter pilots subsequently submitted a
message to the crews of Task Force Normandy, claiming
to have seen the explosions and helicopters in their FLIR
as they flew over an active radar station. Shortly after the
early-warning radar stations were destroyed, waves of
fighter aircraft from the Air Force and Navy bombed
critical air defence centres around the nation, hitting
military command bunkers, the presidential gardens, and
Iraq's primary telephone exchange. Meanwhile, fifty-two
Tomahawk missiles hit other crucial sites around the
nation, knocking off power to the country's air defence
systems, while the remaining missiles went for other key
targets.

87
The task force disbanded once the helicopters returned
to Saudi Arabia, with the Apaches returning to base and
the Pave Lows transitioning to their search-and-rescue
mission. According to computer modelling studies, more
than 125 pilots would need to be rescued after being
shot down. The Gulf War was one of the most lopsided
wins in modern history, with roughly 200,000 Iraqi troops
killed or captured and the coalition losing just 292 men,
half of whom died in pre- or post-war incidents. Despite
the coalition's substantial numerical and technical
advantages, the outcomes were surprising. During the
battle, approximately 200,000 Iraqi troops were killed or
captured, while the coalition lost just 292 men, half of
whom died in pre- or post-war accidents, an unparalleled
ratio never before seen in the annals of armed combat.
Despite the coalition's substantial numerical and
technical advantages, the outcomes were surprising. The
Gulf War was primarily the result of effects-based
operations, which were a method of achieving desired
results via a synergistic approach to defeating the

88
adversary. This strategy was designed to target
vulnerabilities that would have a large impact on the
opponent, and it enabled planners to strike many targets
at the same time, resulting in concurrent warfare. The
distinct separation between the enemy's troops and the
goals was at the heart of effects-based operations. This
enabled planners to strike many targets at the same time,
resulting in "shock and awe"—a massive show of power
that paralyzes the enemy's capacity to function.
The distinct separation between the enemy's troops and
the goals was at the heart of effects-based operations.
The norm for mission planning and execution is effects-
based operations. It is a guiding framework that allows
problem-solving across disciplines, companies, and levels
and enables more effective and efficient solutions. It is
an attitude and guidance that may be utilized at all levels
of a company in order to uncover creative potential. The
basic concepts are that activities and operations should
be driven by the intended end states and work backward,
providing an integrated strategy that supports the goals
throughout planning and execution.

89
This mindset contradicts the way many companies work,
in which planning begins with a predetermined set of
resources and capabilities and then moves on to what
can be achieved with them. Working backward, with the
ultimate goal constantly in mind, may help avoid
planning and execution from becoming too process-
driven, diminishing flexibility and creativity. The KARI air
defence system was identified as the major way for the
Iraqis to detect a coalition strike by Task Force Normandy.
Intel experts identified the system's weakest link, two
distant radar outposts in the middle of the desert, and
created a method to deactivate them. This lesson applies
to business as well, where meeting the needs of
customers should be the intended end state.
An effects-based approach focuses on the cause and
effect of each action made in order to attain the desired
end state. Instead of concentrating on the means
available, the planners concentrated on the effects they
need, such as discovering the radar sites in the isolated
desert at night, remaining undiscovered, destroying the

90
sites, and receiving confirmation that the sites had been
destroyed. The most efficient method was to construct a
task force by combining Air Force Pave Lows and Army
Apaches. The lesson of consequences over tools and
procedures is also applicable to enterprises. It is critical
to break requirements down into minor, desirable
impacts, such as commuting time, cost, number of
passengers, dependability, convenience of use, and so on,
in order to produce a fantastic product.
To create solutions that address the effects, it is
necessary to divide the issue into the effects that must
be addressed, such as commuting time, cost, number of
passengers, dependability, convenience of use, and so on.
Most individuals struggle with this phase because they
are pulled swiftly from the ill-defined to the well-defined.
However, there is a framework that may greatly help in
the discovery of novel solutions. Finding alternatives is
an ill-defined and haphazard procedure that might result
in a hasty selection of an apparent answer that may not
be the best effective option for the present scenario. To
produce alternatives, it is necessary to numerically rank

91
the desired effects and locate solutions that fulfill just
the most significant impact.
This technique assists in removing our strong
predisposition toward optimizing instantly and is
especially useful in group situations where individuals are
frequently frightened to fail. It may be tough to develop
solutions that satisfy all required effects, but finding
solutions that meet all required effects might be very
challenging.
What was the objective of the mission described in
the passage?
The objective of the mission was to destroy early-warning
radar sites in western Iraq covertly, creating a corridor for

92
coalition fighters to enter the country undetected and
strike critical targets, including the KARI system and
Saddam Hussein himself.
Why was it necessary to destroy the early-warning
radar sites?
Destroying the radar sites was crucial to create a gap in
the Iraqi air defense network, allowing coalition fighters
to penetrate Iraqi airspace without being detected. It
would blind the Iraqi air defenses and prevent them from
launching a coordinated defense or counterattack
against the coalition forces.
What challenges did the planners face in executing
the mission?
The planners faced several challenges, including the need
for covertly attacking the radar sites without alerting the

93
Iraqis, ensuring the destruction of the sites despite their
mobility, and navigating the featureless desert terrain.
Additionally, there were initial concerns and
disagreements regarding the involvement of special
forces and the risk involved in the mission, which required
adjustments and refinement of the plan.

94
6
MENTAL TOUGHNESS
The most essential information in this essay is on a high-
risk operation carried out by special forces units in
Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan. The strategy
was straightforward: ground troops would begin in the
northernmost town in ISIS-controlled area and undertake
a cleaning operation, forcing ISIS to retire south into the
lonely highlands. Air support would be a significant
advantage, with Apache helicopters, AC-130 gunships,
and F-16s providing round-the-clock firepower for the
ground forces. The first week of the operation proceeded
pretty well, with the teams coming under constant fire,
but their superior equipment and experience enabled
them to attack the enemy at range successfully. They
built a deadly squad that could swiftly clear an area by
combining 500- and 2,000-pound bombs with laser
rockets.

95
They formed connections with the battle controllers over
time, to the point that they could recognize each of them
by their voices and understood how they functioned. The
wingman and the author joined in on an intelligence
briefing to map the teams' current location and go
through where they had taken fire. The operations
supervisor stopped them midway through the briefing to
report that there was a fighting going on. They
accelerated their preparations and took off in full
afterburner mode at slightly under the speed of sound.
They checked in with the other two ships of F-16s, which
were short on fuel and weaponry, then switched their
radios to the encrypted frequency of the battle controller.
The Apaches checked out, ran out of gas, and were on
their way home. This was a significant loss since Apaches
are among the most useful close-air-support assets
because they can readily track and manoeuvre with them.
This, along with their extensive weaponry, made them
very effective inside the limits of a town or hamlet. The
coordination between the combat controller on the
ground and the other aircraft in the stack, the airspace

96
directly above an operation, and the AC-130 gunship, a
converted cargo aircraft with a 25 mm Gatling gun, 40
mm automatic cannon, and 105 mm howitzer cannon,
make it essentially a flying battleship, are the most
important details in this text. The battle controller was
nervous, and he sent the AC-130 to search out regions
ahead of the crew.
The initial few minutes of an overwatch operation are
typically the most challenging since there are always
changes that must be dealt with while in the air. When
flying close air support, the top priority is to avoid
causing injury to friendly troops, and even in training,
simulating firing the wrong aircraft or dropping a bomb
on the incorrect target is taken seriously and promptly
penalized. The most crucial features in this essay are
those of a contemporary fighter aircraft airstrike. The
battle controller ordered the AC-130 to attack the
adversary, and the aircraft started firing as the discharge
fumes trailed behind it. After fifteen seconds, the
controller said, "Viper"—my call sign—"we need bombs
now, stand by for a nine-line." The combat controller

97
then passed me the coordinates of a building they were
firing from, and I pulled up the coordinates, confirmed
we were talking about the same building, and rolled in on
the target.
I switched the master arm switch, fired my laser to
provide exact range to the bomb, and then pressed the
red weapons-release button, launching a 500-pound
bomb at the target. The building exploded 45 seconds
later, and a cloud of smoke replaced where it had
previously stood. The battle controller called in extra fire
from the AC-130 many times, and I could hear
desperation in his voice as he stated, "We need
immediate fire, now!"" After a few moments, the
wingman and the author were providing close air support
to ISIS fighters when they heard over the radio that one
of the soldiers had been hit." This is the second-worst
destiny, after fratricide, while losing a soldier for whom
you provide overwatch is the worst.

98
Emotions have a big impact on our decision-making
abilities because we have developed to the point where
the reasoning portion of our brains, known as the
neocortex, is linked with our limbic systems, which are in
charge of feeling. Humans have about sixty thousand
ideas every day on average, with fear-based planning
accounting for up to 85% of those thoughts. This is most
likely a result of our history, when death was all around
us and social choices were life and death. This has
resulted in a traditional attitude that is unsuited to the
contemporary environment. When the amygdala in our
brain detects danger, it releases stress and fear
chemicals such as adrenaline and cortisol.
This improves our physical preparedness, but it also leads
our prefrontal brain to shut down, resulting in a
reduction in working memory and attention. After WWII,
the Air Force started researching this change after seeing
that pilots who were extremely adept during peacetime
sorties sometimes destroyed their aircraft in war owing
to simple mental mistakes. Several studies on how stress
affects pilots have been undertaken by the Air Force over

99
the years, and the findings have indicated that although
stress exposure may somewhat boost performance for
basic activities, it drastically impairs performance for jobs
that need complicated or flexible thinking. The most
crucial information in this book is that an instructor pilot
was flying with an above-average student who had just
completed pilot school, was inexperienced, and in his
mid-twenties. Things started to go apart on the way
home when the student mistakenly switched to the
incorrect frequency.
The F-35 is remarkable in that it replaces the typical dials
and instruments with a big touch screen display that
looks like two enormous iPads welded together. After a
few seconds of stillness, the student understood there
was something wrong and started troubleshooting. As
the instructor flew formation behind him, he watched his
height begin to drift by several hundred feet, indicating
that he was becoming overwhelmed. The student
discovered the error and switched to the right radio
frequency in thirty seconds, although his voice had a
little higher pitch, more pauses, and quicker breathing

100
when he talked. For the rest of the flight, he seemed to
be flying erratically, missing radio calls, failing to descend
at the proper times during the recovery, and even
attempting to cut off another formation of fighters.
This is due to the weight of demands placed on fighter
pilots, as well as the dread of failure and damage or
death. The chance of being shot down isn't especially
great in low-threat areas like Afghanistan, but fighter
aircraft must balance performance and dependability,
frequently at the price of one another. The current F-16
crash rate is around two aircraft destroyed for every
100,000 flying hours, implying that one of them will crash
one in every five. You're constantly conscious in the back
of your mind that if your engine fails or any other crucial
element of your aircraft fails, you'll be escaping in a
hostile countryside, with everyone attempting to catch
you. An F-16 was taking off from Bagram less than a year
before my unit arrived in Afghanistan when the pilot saw
a massive explosion at the front of his aircraft.

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