Presentation at the UNDP/IIEP/OECD meeting in Bratislava on anti-corruption policies in Eastern Europe and Central-Asia.

1. Governing education in
a context of economic
recession
Dirk Van Damme
Head of the Centre for Educational
Research and Innovation - OECD

2. Outline
• Impact of the recession on education
• Changing policy contexts
• Governance of education systems
• Some conclusions
2

3. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”
Paul Romer – Emanuel Rahm
3

4. Impact of the recession on education
• Rising demand for education
– Lower opportunity costs for education
– Delaying entry on the labour market is a rational
strategy
– Private sector reducing investments in training
– Hence, increased demand for post-compulsory
education, especially in VET
• But private cost of participation also increases
– Some countries increase private cost, while others
try to contain the private cost by social measures
4

5. Impact of the recession on education
• Private benefits from post-compulsory education
continue to be high in most countries
– High private return
– But also high social returns
5

6. Impact of the recession on education
• Transition from school to labour market
becomes more difficult
– Rising youth unemployment probably the most
visible and problematic social consequence of the
recession
– On average in OECD increase in youth
unemployment rate from 10.3% to 13.5% from
2008 to 2009
– Low schooled people are very vulnerable for
weak employment opportunities
6

7. When the crisis hit
Percentage point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for the 15-29 year-olds
Iceland
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Turkey
Switzerland
Czech Republic
New Zealand
Hungary
Israel
United Kingdom
France
Australia
Netherlands
OECD average Below upper secondary education
Austria Tertiary education
Finland
Canada
Poland
Norway
Denmark
Slovenia
Sweden
Greece
Belgium
Estonia
Germany
Slovak Republic
Portugal
(10.00) (5.00) - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

8. Impact of the recession on education
• Most governments try to contain the impact of
the recession and fiscal consolidation on
education budgets
– In 2009 and 2010 still few signs of budget cuts in
education, but notable exceptions in a few
countries
– Some countries included educational investments
in their stimulus measures
– 2011 and 2012 budgets may result in different
picture
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9. Impact of the recession on education
• Many countries see the recession as an
opportunity to accelerate educational reform
– Tackling youth employment, meeting increased
educational demand, prepare future economic
growth and fostering innovation
• Educational reform more and more focused on
increasing efficiency in education systems
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10. Impact of the recession on education
Primary Secondary Tertiary VET
Australia Reduction
Belgium (Fl) Acceleration
Denmark Acceleration
Finland Reduction Reduction Reduction
Greece Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration
Hungary Reduction Reduction Acceleration
Ireland Expansion Expansion Expansion Expansion
Japan Expansion Expansion Expansion
Korea Acceleration Reduction
Portugal Expansion
Spain Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration
Sweden Expansion
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11. Changing policy contexts
• Changing skills policies
– Competition between nations in high-qualified
and high-skilled people is rising
– High social costs of low skills
– Qualifications without matching skills levels will
become economically detrimental
– Growing importance of comparative and realistic
assessment of skills and learning outcomes (PISA,
PIAAC, AHELO)
– Importance of changing skills demands as result
of technology and innovation (21st C skills)
11

12. 10
15
20
25
30
35
40
% 45
50
0
5
United States
Israel
Norway
Netherlands
Canada
Denmark
Iceland
Estonia
2000's
Russian Federation
Australia
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Switzerland
1990's
Sweden
Hungary
Japan
OECD average
Germany
1980's
EU19 average
Chile
Finland
Luxembourg
Greece
1970's
Ireland
Poland
Spain
France
Czech Republic
Korea
Growth in university-level qualifications
Belgium
Slovak Republic
the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years (2008)
Italy
Turkey
Brazil
Mexico
Austria
Portugal
Approximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A education in
Slovenia

13. Low skills and economic outcomes
Increased likelihood of failure (16-65 year olds)
3.5
In lowest two quintiles of
personal income
3.0
Unemployed
2.5
2.0
Received social assistance
in last year
1.5
Did not receive
1.0
investment income in last
year
0 1 2 3 4
Number of skills domains with low performance
Odds are adjusted for age, gender and immigration status.
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14. Changing policy contexts
• Efficiency of education systems will become top-
priority
– Most education systems have seen a significant
increase in resources over the past 10 years
without a comparable increase in output
– Especially failing schools will come into the
picture
– Schools and teachers more and more held
accountable for learning outcomes
– Policies focusing on the efficiency gaps in the
system
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15. Governance
• Recent trends in educational governance
– From central regulation to decentralisation and
deregulation
• Often intended, not always realised
• Multiplication of governance levels
– From input- to output steering
– Stakeholder participation and more demand-
oriented policies
– Increasing school autonomy
• School leadership and management
• Local control over curricula
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16. Governance
Main level of decision-making
regarding secondary education
curriculum
School Mixed Central
Australia,
Hungary,
Low
Netherlands,
(highly Korea Iceland
New
flexible) Zealand,
Scotland
Austria,
Luxembourg,
Estonia,
Central Mexico,
Finland, Italy, Norway,
influence Neutral Portugal,
France, Sweden
Spain,
Japan
Slovenia,
Turkey
High Belgium (Fl.),
(control Czech
~ ~
from a Republic,
distance) England

17. Governance
• Recent trends in educational governance
– Increasing accountability on performance
• Based on measurable objectives and indicators
– ‘Governing by numbers’
– Focus on evaluation and quality assurance
– Increasing transparency
• Both at institutional and system level
• Transparency on all dimensions:
– Input
– Process
– Outputs
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18. Governance
• Contemporary governance models are
combination of public regulation and market
mechanisms
• Crucial role of knowledge and evidence in
central and local governance
– ‘Evidence-based policy and practice’
– New information and feedback systems in
education
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19. Conclusions
• The economic recession has not (yet) hit the
education system but has set the conditions for a
policy context which will focus more on effectiveness
in realising outcomes (skills for employability) and
efficiency
• Governance in education is changing with more
local control but also more accountability and
transparency
• Trust in education (for producing outcomes, for
matching qualifications with skills, …) will become a
critical factor in educational competition
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20. Thank you !
dirk.vandamme@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
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