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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020

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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020

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The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.

The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.

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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020

  1. 1. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Q2 | April 2020
  2. 2. Q2 overview The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID- 19 outbreak. The markets had hoped (or even expected) that OPEC+ would step up with production cuts to offset demand disruptions, but an agreement hasn’t materialized and with the current price war there are potential longer-term ramifications. For the past three years, the market dynamic has been a balance between North American production growth and OPEC+ production discipline. If this episode signals a wavering of that discipline, no one knows how it might play out. Every segment of the industry has been touched and we have no idea how long this will last or how severe the impact will be. Refining margins, which have given the oil majors refuge during past downturns have also suffered. LNG cargos have been turned away with no alternative destination. There are plausible exit scenarios, but each of them requires considerable time or rapid restoration of some version of the status quo ante. Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader gdonald@uk.ey.com Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader abrogan@uk.ey.com Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
  3. 3. Q2 theme The theme for this quarter is seismic. In the last three months, everything that we thought we understood about supply, demand and the structure of oil and gas markets became (for the time being, at least) irrelevant. The immediate and abrupt reduction in oil and gas demand following the outbreak of COVID-19 — and the resulting shock to the economy — surfaced some long-standing issues that have made balance in petroleum markets precarious at best. As the various forecasting agencies inched their demand forecasts downward, the market looked to Saudi Arabia, Russia and the rest of OPEC+ to step up with temporary production cuts. When that didn’t happen, there was very little stopping prices from dropping dramatically, as they did. No one has a crystal ball that will tell us how this will play out. In the very near term, absent some supply curtailment, prices will continue to be under pressure as storage capacity becomes scarce and it will get more and more difficult to find a home for crude. In the intermediate term, there are a number of scenarios that could play out. When the pandemic calms, demand may bounce back quickly and that will relieve some of the downward stress. As that happens, and market balance at sustainable prices is within reach, it may be easier for market movers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, to find an agreement that works for everyone. Absent that, bringing supply and demand together will take time as non-OPEC production gradually comes down while the recent dramatic reductions in capital spending echo through the system. • When the COVID-19 pandemic ends, what will be the long-term damage to the economy and demand for petroleum products? • How long will it take for capital expenditure cuts to impact production and bring the market into balance? • How long will it take (if ever) for Russia and OPEC to restore the production discipline that has kept the market stable for some time now? ? Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
  4. 4. Q2 trends EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 4 OPEC+ production discipline no longer a factor For some time now, the market has leaned on OPEC+ to balance the market by producing less oil. The crash in demand from COVID-19 left a gap too big to fill, and the resulting conflict left existing agreements in ruins. A free-for-all in production and pricing has ensued. Depressed pricing may have a more immediate production impact In previous downturns, capital markets have enabled continued exploration and production, particularly in North America. There are early indications that there will not be the same access to capital and that diminished access to capital will mean less oil sooner rather than later. LNG and crude cargos without a home Crude oil and LNG production can’t be shut down quickly or without cost. In the very near term, as demand has fallen significantly, the world is running out of places to put product that has no buyer. No one knows how low prices will need to go to balance supply and demand. Product markets have never lost this much demand so rapidly, even in economic meltdowns such as the 2008 financial crisis. Previously, refining has provided some level of stability to investors in integrated companies. Refinery margins have fallen precipitously this time around as refineries compete for the product demand that remains. Refining not a refuge Q2 | April 2020
  5. 5. Market fundamentals Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 5 Source: US EIA • Oil is about mobility and productivity. Those two things are interrelated and neither has been or will be untouched by the COVID-19 outbreak. Three out of every four barrels of crude oil are used in industry or for transportation. • Until the COVID-19 crisis, oil had traded in an exceptionally narrow range for the past year. As the virus spread in China, prices steadily declined in response to diminished demand and expectations of reduced worldwide economic growth. When the pandemic paralyzed the movement of goods and people, it became clear that demand growth was unachievable and demand would likely contract for some time. • For a while, the market expected, or hoped, that the major oil-producing countries would (as they have for the past four years) provide market balance. Not only did that not happen, but previous agreements to hold back production collapsed, and with them oil prices. OPEC production discipline disappears and prices crash 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 US$/bbl Brent WTI • In the wake of the oil price earthquake, producers across the board have announced many plans to conserve cash. Share buyback programs are being curtailed and dividend cuts have already been unveiled and more are certainly being considered, but the most immediate reaction to the crisis has been cuts in capital expenditure plans. • Absent a rapid recovery of demand or a new agreement among OPEC and Russia to curtail production, the only path to market rebalancing is a gradual erosion of production (or at least production growth) in the sources of supply most dependent on capital investment. • US shale, Canadian oil sands and deepwater resources are the most obvious candidates. Recent history tells us, however, that the response could be muted and lagged. In the wake of the 2014 downturn, production declines were about a year behind capex cuts, and the size of the production declines were no more than half the reduction in capex. How quickly will North American production respond to capex cuts? Source: Capital IQ and EY analysis -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Percentage change in BOE production (left axis) Percentage change in capex (right axis)
  6. 6. Market fundamentals Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 6 Unlike previous downturns, refining margins have been severely impacted LNG cargos are searching for new homes • Refiners were already facing tough market conditions with IMO2020 not delivering the anticipated growth in product cracks. With the spread of COVID-19 resulting in weaker demand for oil products, refiners are forced to continue operating at low throughput levels. • Gross refining margins plummeted in all regions during the quarter (vis- à-vis 4Q19) in the range of 10%–17%. With a collapse of crude oil prices, downstream earnings will not offset weak upstream performance of IOCs in the near term, unlike the 2014–16 downturn. • Normally, refiners would benefit from sharply falling crude oil prices and more medium sour supply. However, in the near term, the margins will shrink further as demand continues to remain fragile. In the long term, stronger margins stemming from the oil price decline may offset modestly lower volumes. Source: Refining margin monitor, Jefferies 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 (till 18 March) Refiningmargins(US$/bbl) US Gulf Coast NW Europe Singapore • The COVID-19 outbreak and resulting slowdown in economic activity has impacted LNG demand, which was already growing at a slow pace before the crisis. • Force majeure declared by Chinese LNG buyers, lockdowns in major Asian and European markets and full inventories mean that LNG cargos have nowhere to go. Production cuts may be imminent. • The weak demand and depressed spot prices could give LNG buyers more bargaining power and accelerate the transition to a hub-based market, marked by spot prices and increasing the role of traders. • Amid weak market conditions and capex cuts, final investment decisions on new LNG export projects will likely be delayed. Progress on recently sanctioned projects is also expected to slow down. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20* Gasprice(US$/MMBtu) Henry Hub UK NBP TTF JKM *Estimated YTD price Source: Capital IQ and JP Morgan
  7. 7. Market fundamentals Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 7 • We are rapidly approaching the point where electric vehicles (EVs) will reach cost and performance parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. In fact, with oil prices at levels prevailing before the price crash, the cost per vehicle mile for an EV is appreciably lower than for a comparable ICE vehicle. • Obviously, a dramatic change in the price of gasoline affects those economics. The EY analysis of the costs suggests that an incremental US$10/bbl change in the price of crude oil translates to a 1-cent change in the cost per mile of driving an ICE vehicle. The relative economics of EVs and ICE vehicles are complicated, and the cost of fuel is only about 20% of overall costs of ICE vehicle ownership. • It is unclear how much marginal changes in driving economics will affect consumer choices. The decision to buy an automobile is multidimensional, and this is particularly true for “green” products, such as EVs. How will depressed oil prices affect energy transition? Government budgets in oil-producing countries will be strained Source: Loup Ventures and EY analysis -25 25 75 125 175 225 Kuwait Kazakhstan Iraq UAE Saudi Arabia Libya Iran Fiscalbreakevenoil price,2020E(US$/bbl) Source: IMF, EIA • Oil is a key source of income for OPEC members and the crude oil price plunge will result in revenue losses, putting a strain on their fiscal budgets. Many of these countries are already suffering from a fiscal deficit, which may widen further if prices continue to remain at the current levels. • The fiscal break even oil price of crude oil-exporting nations based on their respective governments’ budget is high relative to prevailing crude oil prices. Among all the crude oil exporters, Kuwait has the lowest break even oil price of US$55/bbl, which is still 38% higher than the average estimated crude oil price of US$40 in 2020. • Sustained low oil prices may force the OPEC countries to slash their government budgets drastically for 2020 (by cutting salaries, subsidies, etc.), raise taxes or borrow from international capital markets to survive in tough market conditions. Average WTI price estimate for 2020 Average Brent price estimate for 2020 $0.464 $0.486 $0.458 $0.449 $0.444 Tesla Model 3 Toyota Camry oil at $60 WTI Toyota Camry oil at $30 WTI Toyota Camry oil at $20 WTI Toyota Camry oil at $15 WTI Cost per vehicle mile traveled
  8. 8. Brent futures Q2 | April 2020Page 8 Brent futures decreased substantially in March as the decline in oil demand (resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic) acted as a catalyst for the breakdown in the OPEC+ agreement that had historically brought stability to the oil markets. Although futures pricing is expected to increase over time, the duration and extent of the current imbalance are unknown. Futures data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 US$/bbl Historical Brent Brent futures – March 2020 Brent futures – December 2019
  9. 9. Brent: Average price per bbl forecast in 2024 — consultants WTI: Average price per bbl forecast in 2024 — consultants Q2 | April 2020Page 9 Oil price outlook For both benchmarks, consultants (on average) forecast higher oil prices throughout the period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable oil price, whereas banks/brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. Following news that OPEC and Russia would not extend production cuts on 6 March 2020, our analysis is based on the following: • For 2020 and 2021, bank/broker and consultant estimates released since 9 March 2020 • For 2022 onward, as a result of uncertainty as to whether current dynamics will sustain beyond the near term, consultant estimates include those released since 1 January 2020 In the long term, we note high relative forecasting uncertainty given the proven ability of identified risk factors to move the price significantly in a short period of time. Consultant forecasts result in averages of US$71.0/bbl and US$67.0/bbl for Brent and WTI, respectively, in 2024. This data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Brent Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages WTI Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers reports, consensus economics, consultant website US$71.0 US$67.0 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US$perbarrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US$perbarrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average
  10. 10. Henry Hub: Average price per MMbtu forecast in 2024 — consultants UK NBP: Average price per therm forecast in 2024 — consultants 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 GBppertherm Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average Q2 | April 2020Page 10 Gas price outlook For both benchmarks, consultants (on average) forecast higher gas prices throughout the period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable gas price, whereas the banks/brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. Following news that OPEC and Russia would not extend production cuts on 6 March 2020, the EY analysis is based on the following: • For 2020 and 2021, bank/broker and consultant estimates released since 9th March 2020 • For 2022 onward, as a result of uncertainty as to whether current dynamics will sustain beyond the near term, consultant estimates include those released since 1 January 2020 NBP price estimates are scarce, with only one consultant forecast release included in the 2020 and 2021 estimates (based on the preceding forecast timing update threshold) and three forecasts thereafter. This data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Henry Hub Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages UK NBP Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages US$2.9 GBp44.3 Source: Bloomberg, bank/broker reports, consensus economics, consultant website EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US$perMMbtu Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average
  11. 11. Appendix Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 11 Brent oil price estimates This data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Source: Bloomberg, bank/broker reports Source: Consultant websites, Oxford Economics Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 49.0 63.5 65.0 61.2 62.4 Average 40.8 48.8 53.9 58.0 59.4 Median 42.0 50.0 55.0 59.7 60.0 Low 30.0 34.0 35.0 51.0 55.0 Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 43.3 55.4 71.0 73.0 75.0 Average 40.9 50.7 66.6 69.1 71.0 Median 40.9 50.7 69.6 71.0 72.4 Low 38.5 46.0 56.0 61.5 64.0 Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the long-term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
  12. 12. Appendix Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 12 WTI oil price estimates This data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 55.0 59.5 61.2 58.1 59.3 Average 38.4 46.3 50.4 53.7 55.5 Median 38.0 47.5 50.0 55.0 56.3 Low 29.0 31.0 32.0 44.0 50.0 Source: Bloomberg, banks/brokers reports Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 38.2 50.4 67.0 68.3 70.0 Average 37.2 46.5 62.6 65.2 67.0 Median 37.2 46.5 65.8 67.7 69.2 Low 36.2 42.7 52.0 57.1 59.4 Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the-long term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
  13. 13. Appendix Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 13 Henry Hub gas price estimates This data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Source: Bloomberg, banks/brokers reports * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu. Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics Bank/broker 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) High 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.1 Average 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 Median 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 Low 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 Consultant 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) High 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 Average 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 Median 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.1 Low 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the long-term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
  14. 14. Appendix Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 14 NBP gas price estimates This data is effective as of 20 March 2020. Bank/broker 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm) High 32.0 40.0 50.0 52.0 44.0 Average 27.6 34.3 43.1 46.3 42.0 Median 27.2 34.6 41.2 46.6 42.0 Low 24.9 30.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Consultant 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm) High 25.6 25.6 50.0 53.8 55.8 Average 25.6 25.6 41.8 43.4 44.3 Median 25.6 25.6 50.0 51.0 52.0 Low 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 Source: Bloomberg, banks/brokers reports * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the brokers’ forecasted FX rates. Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics * Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultants' forecast FX rate for the purpose of our conversion. Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the long-term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
  15. 15. Key contacts Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 15 Important notice Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 20 March 2020. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and views of market participants, analysis can become quickly outdated. It should be noted that the EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are collating the views of market participants. Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment with price forecasts assessed in the context of the other key assumptions, such as resources and reserves classification, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis. Jeff Williams EY Global Oil & Gas Advisory Leader +1 713 750 5916 Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader +44 20 7951 751 Derek Leith EY Global Oil & Gas Tax Leader +44 12 2465 3246 Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader +44 20 7951 7009 John Hartung EY Global Oil & Gas TAS Leader +1 713 751 2114
  16. 16. EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector can help your business The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field subsectors. The Sector team works to anticipate market trends, execute the mobility of our global resources and articulate points of view on relevant sector issues. With our deep sector focus, we can help your organization drive down costs and compete more effectively. © 2020 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 001824-20Gbl ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com

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