In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments.
3. Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Global summary
US$20.6b
US$12.7b
Renewables
US$9.1b
Americas
Global deal value
Largest segment
Largest region
127Total deals
Q1 Chart 1: Global P&U deal value and volume by segment
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
Chart 2: Global P&U deal value and volume by region
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
Page 3
Note: All transaction information is EY analysis with data sourced from Mergermarket and S&P Global Market Intelligence.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Dealvolume(numberofdeals)
Dealvalue(US$b)
Generation Integrated utility Energy services Renewables
Gas utility Water and wastewater Volume
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Dealvolume(numberofdeals)
Dealvalue(US$b)
Americas Asia-Pacific Europe Africa and Middle East Volume
4. Renewables drive deal value and volume
Global summary
Demand for renewables drives M&A activity
Q1 2019 saw 56% — 71 of 127 — deals involve renewables, which contributed a total
value of US$12.7b (61% of total deal value). Europe led the activity with US$5.4b,
or 42.5%, of total renewables deal value. Financial sponsors and strategics are
firmly committed to renewable energy investments driven by market potential,
customer preference and corporate sustainability goals, resulting in a significant
pool of investment capital.
In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to
US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments. Across all regions, a
few trends emerged:
Governments continue to push for more clean energy
Governments around the world continue to promote clean energy policy. In Europe,
Greece and France announced new energy plans promoting renewables growth,
while in the US, local government continues to drive renewables progress. New
Mexico recently joined California, Hawaii, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico to set a
100% carbon-free goal. In Asia-Pacific, India has set a target of 100 GW of solar
power by 2022.
Corporates and utilities drive development of renewables
France’s ENGIE announced it would add another 9 GW of renewable capacity by
2021, while Italian energy giant Enel announced plans to spend 80% of its US$30b
capital expenditure through 2021 on renewables and grid operations. In the US,
over 200 companies, including Facebook and Alphabet’s subsidiary, Google
launched the Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance with the goal to bring 60 GW of
new renewables online in the US by 2025.
Interest in offshore wind is on the rise
Development of offshore wind capacity has accelerated with Australia, Japan,
China, Korea, India and the Netherlands all recently announcing new projects. In the
second largest deal of the quarter, German asset manager Commerz Real joined
consortium members to buy an 80% stake in 402 MW German offshore wind farm
Veja Mate for US$2.6b. The US offshore wind market is at the cusp of a tipping
point as interest in offshore leases continues to grow.
Page 4
Increasing convergence as oil and gas (O&G) majors enter the sector
Investment by O&G companies into the P&U sector is rising across all regions,
increasing sector competition. Shell’s New Energies division made two strategic
acquisitions as they continue to take steps towards their target of becoming the
world’s largest electricity company by 2035. Our CCB report revealed that O&G is
the sector that executives expect to see the most convergence or blurring of sector
boundaries — this trend will continue to influence M&A dynamics in 2019.
Investment challenges for the fossil fuel industry
The Norwegian Government proposed the phaseout of oil and gas exploration and
production companies from its US$1t sovereign wealth fund. The German
Government announced plans to shut all of its 84 coal-powered plants by 2038 and
replace them with renewable energy plants. In the US, a federal judge dismissed a
lawsuit that sought to force an Arizona water agency to buy electricity from a local
2.3 GW Navajo coal plant. The plant may be forced to close by the end of the year.
5. Quarterly investment profile
Americas Europe Asia-Pacific Africa and the Middle East
US$9.1b deal value, 35% decrease
from US$13.9b in Q4 2018.
US$3.7b deal value in renewables
assets.
US$6.8b deal value, 27% decrease
from US$9.3b in Q4 2018.
US$5.4b deal value in renewables
assets.
US$4.1b deal value, 45% decrease
from US$7.4b in Q4 2018.
US$3.6b deal value in renewables
assets.
US$0.6b deal value in Q1 2019.
Renewables investment continues,
with increasing focus on off-grid
solutions.
Q1 2019 at a glance
Investments in smart technologies
boosted by government support.
Partnerships between financial
sponsors and strategics are on the
rise.
French and Greek Governments
announced plans to increase
renewables investments.
Hong Kong-based privatization deal
dominated activity.
Global summary
Page 5
6. Q1 2019 at a glance (continued)
Global summary
Page 6
Capital outlook
Americas Europe Asia-Pacific Africa and the Middle East
Utilities and corporates will continue
to push investment in renewables.
Investment in battery storage will
ramp up as utilities plan big-ticket
projects.
Utilities’ decarbonization plans will
drive investment in renewables.
Signs that the EU could miss its 2030
renewables and energy savings goals
may increase the need for renewables
investment.
Policy support will keep Bangladesh an
investment hotspot for renewables.
Investments in EVs will accelerate,
supported by policy support across
India and New Zealand.
Foreign and government investment in
renewable energy development will
continue.
Investment in off-grid solutions will
increase, bridging the gap between
power demand and supply.
Energy reforms will continue amid a
challenged economic environment.
Activity in Latin America will increase,
driven by investment in infrastructure
and asset sales led by US and
European utilities.
Electric vehicle (EV) investment will be
boosted by tighter CO2 emission caps
and planned investments by utilities.
Reforms in Thailand’s behind-the-
meter segment will boost investment
in distributed solar.
7. Global capital flows — Q1 2019
Investment activity globally by country, Q1 2019 (US$b)
Targetcountry
• Greater China was the top
global investor for the
quarter, investing US$3.4b
domestically and US$0.9b
overseas.
• The UK was the top
outbound investor,
investing US$1.9b in
foreign countries, including
US$0.7b in Mexico and
US$0.5b in Luxembourg.
• The US continued to attract
the most investment, with
investments domestically
and inbound from Canada
and the UK.
Capital flows
Global summary
0–5 5–10 10–20 20–30
Page 7
US Greater China Germany Canada Luxembourg UK Rest of the world Total receipts
US 2.4 1.3 - 0.2 0.3 4.2
Greater China 3.4 3.4
Germany 2.6 2.6
Canada 0.5 1.8 2.3
Luxembourg 0.5 1.1 1.6
UK 0.8 0.3 1.1
Rest of the world 0.1 0.9 1.2 3.2 5.4
Total investment 3.0 4.3 2.6 3.1 2.7 4.9 20.6
Note: Numbers may not add to total due to rounding.
Investor country
8. Global returns
1The EY Global Utilities Index benchmarks the returns of 229 utilities globally using data sourced from S&P Capital IQ and other publicly available information. For a comprehensive list of utilities contained within the analysis, please refer to the appendix.
• Q1 saw global markets rally after their decline in value in Q4 2018. The S&P Global
1200 gained 13.7% this quarter compared to a decline of 13.1% in the prior quarter.
• The EY Global Utilities Index1 underperformed the market, returning 10.9%. The risk
of rising interest rates may have impacted the performance of the sector relative to
total global returns.
Utilities gain value in tandem with global market growth
Global summary
Page 8
Quarter-to-date TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
S&P Global 1200 13.7
EY Global Utilities Index 10.9
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
01/01/2019 08/01/2019 15/01/2019 22/01/2019 29/01/2019 05/02/2019 12/02/2019 19/02/2019 26/02/2019 05/03/2019 12/03/2019 19/03/2019 26/03/2019
Chart 3: Total shareholder return – global comparison
S&P Global 1200 TSR (%) EY Global Utilites Index TSR (%)
9. Regional TSR
QTD TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March
2019)
Americas
S&P 500 14.8
EY Americas Utilities Index 14.5
Europe
STOXX Europe 600 12.4
EY Europe Utilities Index 8.4
Asia-Pacific
Nikkei 225 9.6
EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index 8.2
Americas
The QTD TSR of the EY
Americas Utilities Index2 was
14.5%, which is lower than the
regional market (as
benchmarked by the S&P 500
index), which returned a
quarterly TSR of 14.8%.
However, the EY Americas
Utilities Index outperformed
Europe and Asia-Pacific (QTD
TSR of 8.4% and 8.2%,
respectively).
Valuations
The QTD TSR of the EY Europe
Utilities Index was 8.4%, which is
significantly lower than the QTD
TSR for the European
benchmark index STOXX Europe
600, which returned 12.4% for
the quarter.
The EY Asia-Pacific Utilities
Index performed slightly lower
than the Nikkei 225, the Asia-
Pacific regional benchmark
index. Asia-Pacific utilities
returned 8.2% QTD compared
with the market at 9.6%. The
QTD return of the EY Asia-
Pacific Utilities Index was
the lowest of all regional EY
utilities indices.
2EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ and other publicly available data. The EY Americas Utilities Index benchmarks the returns of 101 utilities
headquartered in the Americas, the EY Europe Utilities Index benchmarks the returns of 54 utilities headquartered in Europe, the EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index
benchmarks the returns of 73 utilities headquartered in Asia-Pacific. For a comprehensive list of utilities contained within the analysis, please refer to the appendix.
American utilities performed significantly better than their global peers
Europe Asia-Pacific
Page 9
Global summary
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
Chart 4: Total shareholder return — regional comparison
S&P 500 TR (total return) % EY Americas Utilites Index TSR (%)
Stoxx Europe 600 TR (total return) % EY Europe Utilites Index TSR (%)
Nikkei 225 TR (total return) % EY Asia-Pacific Utilites Index TSR (%)
STOXX Europe 600 TR (total return) %
10. TSR and valuations segment dashboard
Americas
• Generation’s TSR was the highest performing in the region, and this segment
outperformed the broader market, a continued trend from Q4 2018. The water
and wastewater segment TSR was the lowest of all segments in Q1 across the
Americas.
• The large market capitalization integrated segment and the medium and small
market capitalization segment TSR performed better than in other regions.
• The Americas utilities EV/FY2 EBITDA sector traded at 10.7x, the highest of all
the regions, with water and wastewater assets valued at the highest multiple of
13.6x for Q1.
Europe
• The renewables segment QTD TSR was the highest performing of the region
(15.6% TSR QTD), while the generation segment TSR performed the worst
(2.4% TSR QTD). This is a reversal from Q4 2018 performance.
• The water and wastewater segment TSR performed worse than in other
regions but remains valued above the EY Europe Utilities Index average at 8.5x
EV/FY2 EBITDA compared to 7.3x EV/FY2 EBITDA.
• The European utilities sector was valued at the lowest EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple
during Q1 across all regions. The renewables and gas utility segments traded
at the highest valuation across Europe.
Asia-Pacific
• Renewables were the highest performing QTD TSR segment in the region, after
the poor performance in Q4 with -7.2% returns.
• The generation segment was the lowest performing segment across the sector
and region with QTD TSR of -0.6% in contrast to 11.3% TSR in the prior
quarter.
• The Asia-Pacific utilities sector EV/FY2 EBITDA traded at 10.3x. The gas
utility segment traded at 14.8x EV/FY2 EBITDA, highest across all the other
regional segments.
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for
the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the
valuations analysis.
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
Gas utility
Generation
Renewables
Water and wastewater
EY Americas Utilities Index
Q1
QTD TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
Gas utility
Generation
Renewables
Water and wastewater
EY Europe Utilities Index
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
Gas utility
Generation
Renewables
Water and wastewater
EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index
EV/FY2 EBITDA
(At 31 March 2019)
TSR >20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% premium compared with the regional sector average
TSR performance >20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% premium compared with the regional sector average
Global summary
Page 10
2.2%
6.3%
8.7%
-0.6%
27.6%
14.1%
8.2%
9.3%
4.0%
12.1%
2.4%
15.6%
8.4%
8.4%
10.7x
13.6x
11.7x
8.3x
11.1x
9.6x
10.5x
7.3x
8.5x
9.1x
5.7x
9.8x
5.0x
7.5x
10.3x
9.9x
12.5x
7.8x
14.8x
10.4x
8.3x
11.7%
15.0%
14.0%
25.7%
17.7%
9.0%
14.5%
11. EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY Global P&U TAS Resident TAS Senior Manager EY Global P&U Analyst
EY Global Transaction Advisory Services P&U contacts
Miles Huq Sara Richardson Mike C Morse Anjushi Joshi
+1 410 783 3735
miles.huq@ey.com
@MilesHuq
+61 7 3243 3758
sara.richardson@au.ey.com
@sararichardson2
+1 410 234 4330
michael.c.morse@ey.com
+91 124 619 2734
anjushi.joshi@gds.ey.com
@anjushi_joshi
Global summary
Page 11
13. Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Americas
Certain utilities are
changing their
thinking to ensure
they are not getting
left behind by
focusing on
renewable and
emerging technology
investment.
Financial sponsors
have a large pool of
capital and are eager
to engage.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
deal value, 35% decrease from Q4 2018
US$9.1b
US$3.7b
contributed by renewables asset M&A, dominated by seven
multimillion-dollar deals
Transaction highlights
Financial sponsors focus on renewables
• Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR) agreed to make a
US$900m equity investment in NextEra Energy Partners to
facilitate the acquisition of a 611 MW renewables portfolio.
Shareholder activism continues
• Sempra continued its process of simplifying its business
structure by selling 724 MW of operating wind and battery
assets to AEP for US$1.1b. The deal follows Sempra’s
US$1.5b sale of renewables assets to Consolidated Edison
last year.
Chinese renewables investment targets Latin America
• In the largest deal of Q1 in Latin America, Chinese-based
CGN Energy International agreed to acquire wind and solar
projects totaling 540 MW combined capacity from Enel for
US$783m. Overall, Latin American countries attracted
US$2.4b or 26% of Americas power and utilities (P&U)
investment this quarter.
Corporate distress and restructuring drive divestitures
• Canadian utility ENMAX acquired US electricity network
utility Emera Maine from Emera Inc. for US$1.3b. The deal
furthers Emera Inc.’s strategy to reduce debt and support
its US$4.9b regulated capital expenditure program. Also
this quarter, GE continued restructuring, selling its stake in
several wind farms to Enel for approximately US$250m.
Chart 5: Americas deal value and volume by segment
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
“
Page 13
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Dealvolume(numberofdeals)
Dealvalue(US$b)
Generation Integrated Energy services
Renewables Gas utility Water and wastewater
Volume
14. Americas
Renewables and emerging technology drive the capital agenda
• In March, the New Mexico State House
passed the Energy Transition Act
requiring 100% carbon-free generation
by 2045. The state joins Hawaii,
California and Washington, DC, which
all have 100% renewables targets. In
late March, Puerto Rico’s legislature
also approved a 100% renewable
energy target by 2050.
Another 100% renewable portfolio
standard (RPS) goal
Page 14
• Duke Energy filed a US$76m plan to
develop electric vehicle (EV) charging
infrastructure in North Carolina.
Michigan utility Consumers Energy
introduced a US$10m, three-year plan
to incentivize deployment of EV
charging stations in the region. In
Atlanta, Georgia Power announced
plans to set up a 1.4 MW microgrid with
Georgia Institute of Technology.
More investment in new technology
• Increased shareholder activism, mainly
driven by Elliott Management and
Bluescape Resources, has resulted in
billions of asset divestments, most
recently at Sempra, which has divested
approximately US$2.5b of renewable
and natural gas storage assets.
• In addition, rising corporate distress in
Canada and the US has led to asset
sales to strengthen balance sheets.
Asset divestments continue
Clean energy will develop into a large and stable market,
attracting investment beyond current expectations —
from both corporate and financial sponsors.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
“
15. We expect US corporate buyers to take
the lead in domestic M&A as they
grapple with the ongoing changes in the
power and utilities sector. Facing flat
load growth and a rapidly changing
environment, small to midsize utilities
appear ripe for consolidation.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
46% of total Americas
investment occurred in
the US. 90% of these
transactions were
conducted by corporates,
with more than half (57%)
domestic buyers.
53% (US$4.8b) of
all regional deals
were domestic.
Deal value dropped, but the US remained investors’ top pick
Americas regional capital flows — Q1 2019 (US$b)
Americas
“
Page 15
0.7
Mexico
0.7
0.8
Brazil
0.8
1.8
0.5
Canada
2.3
1.3
2.4
0.2
0.3
USA
4.2
Top investor countries/regions
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
USCanada UK Philippines ItalyGreater China
16. Announcement
date
Target Target country/
bidder country
Bidder Deal value
(US$b)
Bidder rationale Segment
25 March Emera Maine US/Canada
ENMAX
Corporation
1.3
Aligns with ENMAX’s strategy
to grow through expansion of
its regulated utility business
in North America
Integrated
4 March
NextEra Energy Resources,
LLC (six power plants)
US/US
NextEra Energy
Partners, LP
1.0
Supports a continued focus
on growing the renewables
portfolio through sponsor
drop downs
Renewables
28 January
Waneta Expansion
Hydroelectric Project (51%
stake)
Canada/Canada
Columbia Basin
Trust; Columbia
Power
Corporation
1.0
Helps transfer control of the
assets to the people of
Columbia Basin
Generation
12 February Sempra Renewables, LLC US/US
American
Electric Power
Company Inc.
0.9
Part of AEP’s plan to invest
US$2.2b in contracted
renewables by 2023
Renewables
27 March Valener Inc. Canada/Canada Noverco Inc. 0.8
Fits Noverco’s plan to
privatize Valener
Gas utility
Top five Americas deals — Q1 2019
Note: All deals are announced deals, and the values indicated are disclosed enterprise values comprised of equity and debt components.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
The sale of Emera
Maine highlights
corporate distress as
an opportunity for
investment. This is a
continuing theme as
shown by GE’s asset
sale, Southern’s asset
sales last year and
Dominion’s
acquisition of
SCANA.
Americas
“
Page 16
17. Valuations and TSR snapshot — Q1 2019
Return over time — from base date
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Americas
Page 17
Chart 6: Total shareholder return by segment
(from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
In the Americas, the EY Americas Utilities Index recorded
a TSR of 14.5%, slightly underperforming the S&P 500,
which returned 14.8%. The top performers in the region
were Crius Energy Trust (93.6%) and Genie Energy
(42.2%) driven by M&A activity.
The generation segment continued its bullish trajectory
with 25.7% returns. This result was driven by the 76.5%
QTD return of TransAlta Corporation.
The water and wastewater segment recorded the lowest
TSR of 9.0%, compared to 1.7% TSR in Q4 2018.
The EV/FY2 EBITDA of the sector was 10.7x, compared
with 10.5x last quarter.
1
2
3
4
Water and wastewater assets traded at a premium to
sector EV/FY2 EBITDA at 13.6x — the highest across all
the regions for this asset class.
5
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
S&P 500 TR (total return) % Large market capitalization integrated utility
Medium and small capitalization integrated utility Gas utility
Generation Renewables
Water and wastewater
18. Valuations and TSR snapshot — Q1 2019 (continued)
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
Gas utility
Generation
Renewables
Water and wastewater
EY Americas Utilities Index
TSR >20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% premium compared with the regional sector average
TSR performance >20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% premium compared with the regional sector average
Americas
Page 18
Q1
QTD TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
EV/FY2 EBITDA
(At 31 March 2019)
• The water and wastewater segment returned a
quarterly TSR of 9.0%, which is below the
regional index average of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 13.6x,
27.0% above the average regional sector
multiple and greater than both Europe and Asia-
Pacific (8.5x and 9.9x, respectively).
Water and wastewater
• The renewables segment returned a quarterly
TSR of 17.7%, which is higher than the regional
index average of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 11.7x,
which is 9% above the average regional sector
multiple. The result is greater than that of
Europe (9.1x) but less than that of Asia-Pacific
(12.5x).
Renewables
• The generation segment returned a quarterly
TSR of 25.7%, above the regional index average
of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 8.3x,
22.0% lower than the average regional sector
multiple but greater than that of Europe and
Asia-Pacific, which returned results of 5.7x and
7.8x, respectively.
Generation
• The gas utility segment returned a quarterly
TSR of 14.0%, slightly below the regional index
average of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 11.1x,
4.0% above the average regional sector
multiple. The result is greater than that of
Europe (9.8x) but less than that of Asia-Pacific
(14.8x).
Gas utility
• The medium and small market capitalization
integrated segment returned a quarterly TSR of
15.0%, slightly above the regional index
average of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.6x,
which is 11.0% lower than the average regional
sector multiple but greater than the results of
Europe and Asia-Pacific at 5.0x and 10.4x,
respectively.
Medium and small market
capitalization integrated
• The large market capitalization integrated
segment returned a quarterly TSR of 11.7%,
below the regional index average of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 10.5x,
which is 2.0% lower than the average regional
sector multiple but greater than that recorded
in Europe (7.5x) and Asia-Pacific (8.3x).
Large market capitalization
integrated
10.7x
13.6x
11.7x
8.3x
11.1x
9.6x
10.5x11.7%
15.0%
14.0%
25.7%
17.7%
9.0%
14.5%
19. M&A outlook and investment hotspots
Continued investment in energy storage
• Arizona Public Service is planning to add 850 MW of battery storage and 100 MW of solar by 2020.
Florida Power & Light, the utility owned by NextEra Energy, is planning to build the world’s largest solar
powered battery of 409 MW/900 MWh capacity in Florida. New York State Energy Research and
Development Authority has announced US$350m in incentives to help New York meet its 3 GW energy
storage goal.
Renewables investments to increase
• Utilities in the region are expected to spend US$12.5b in renewable energy capital expenditure in 2019,
despite the US phaseout of investment tax credits (ITCs) and renewable electricity production tax credits
(PTCs). Xcel Energy and Iowa’s MidAmerican Energy have announced 100% carbon-free targets.
Corporates seek more clean energy
• In March, over 200 companies, including Alphabet’s subsidiary Google, Facebook, General Motors and
Walmart, launched the Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance (REBA). REBA’s goal is to bring 65 GW of new
renewable energy online by 2025 and make it easier for corporate buyers to procure clean energy.
9 GWh
cumulative capacity of energy
storage projects to come
online in the US by 2020
Solar plus storage power purchase
agreements (PPAs) are becoming
less expensive than the levelized cost
of energy (LCOE) for combined cycle
natural gas in the US, pressing
utilities to consider adopting this
new technology.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
Americas
“
Page 19
Investment activity to increase in Latin America
• EDP’s Brazilian subsidiary has announced plans to invest US$801m in developing the country’s
transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure through 2023. Sempra plans to sell its 100% stake in
Chilean utility Chilquinta Energía and 83.6% stake in Luz del Sur in Peru to focus on the US and Mexico
markets. Aguas Nuevas and Esval, two Chilean water and wastewater utilities, have announced plans to
invest US$355m to improve efficiencies and mitigate risks posed by climate change to their operations.
20. EY Americas Transaction Advisory Services P&U contacts
Miles Huq Stephanie Chesnick Mitch Fane Robert A Jozwiak
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
EY US Northeast P&U TAS Leader
+1 410 783 3735
miles.huq@ey.com
EY US P&U TAS Leader
+1 713 750 8192
stephanie.chesnick@ey.com
EY US Southwest P&U TAS Leader
+1 713 750 4897
mitchell.fane@ey.com
EY US Central P&U TAS Leader
+1 312 879 3461
robert.jozwiak@ey.com
Lucio Teixeira Robert Leonard Rafael Aguirre Sosa
EY Latin America South P&U TAS Leader EY US Southeast P&U TAS Leader EY Latin America North P&U TAS Leader
+52 55 5283 8650
rafael.aguirre@mx.ey.com
+55 11 2573 3008
lucio.teixeira@br.ey.com
+1 704 335 4236
rob.leonard@ey.com
Bill Armitage
EY Canada P&U TAS Leader
+1 416 943 2373
william.armitage@ca.ey.com
Americas
Page 20
22. Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Europe
Veja Mate has an optimum
risk-return ratio. A future
technology that is already
very well established was
commissioned on schedule
and to budget; it produces
stable cash flows and
makes an effective
contribution to achieve the
climate protection targets3.
Johannes Anschott,
Board Member, Commerz Real
Transaction highlights
Quarter’s largest deal in offshore wind
• Motivated by corporate sustainability goals,
German asset manager Commerz Real joined
consortium members to buy an 80% stake in
402 MW German offshore wind farm Veja Mate
for US$2.6b.
Oil major acquires renewables assets
• Total Eren, a subsidiary of Total SA, acquired
NovEnergia II, a Luxembourg-based renewables
company with a portfolio of 675 MW, for
US$1.1b.
Uncertainty prompts asset divestures
• UK-based utility SSE announced plans to
dispose assets to raise US$1.96b and restore
its balance sheet. The move comes after a
challenging 2018 for the company that
included a US$543m trading loss, the failed
merger between its electricity retail arm and
Npower, and the suspension of capacity
payments.
deal value — down 27% from Q4 2018
US$6.8b
renewables assets deal value, driven by two megadeals
US$5.4b
Chart 7: Europe deal value and volume by segment
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
Source: EY analysis on publicly disclosed data
“
Page 22
3 https://www.commerzreal.com/en/press-release/press-release/commerz-real-und-ingka-group-investieren-ueber-400-millionen-euro-in-nordsee-windpark-veja-mate/
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Dealvolume(numberofdeals)
Dealvalue(US$b)
Generation Integrated Energy services
Renewables Gas utility Water and wastewater
Volume
23. Renewables dominate investment agenda
Governments boost clean energy Oil majors focus in on power and utilities
• Netherlands-based oil and gas company Shell has announced plans to
become the world’s largest electricity company by 2035 through owning or
purchasing 61 GW of power capacity. The company plans to invest
approximately US$1b to US$2b of capital per year on new energy
solutions.
• Through its New Energies division, Shell announced the full acquisition of
smart energy storage company Sonnen in February, and the acquisition of
Greenlots, a major EV fast charging infrastructure provider based in the
US.
• Shell, in partnership with energy company Eneco and builder Van Oord,
participated in a highly contested tender to build a 750 MW offshore wind
farm off the Netherlands; the tender closed in March.
• Another oil company, Total, joined with renewables companies Ørsted and
Elicio to announce plans to bid to develop a 600 MW offshore wind farm in
France.
• In January, the French Government published a draft 10-year energy plan
to double its installed renewables capacity to 113 GW by 2028. In
February, Greece introduced its first long-term energy plan that outlined a
framework for driving US$39b of investments in clean energy by 2030.
• In January, the German Government announced plans to shut all of its 84
coal-powered plants by 2038 and replace them with renewable energy
plants. The coal phaseout is estimated to cost US$45.7b.
• Even with these developments, there is debate whether Europe’s draft
National Energy and Climate Plans are sufficient to deliver the EU’s 32%
renewables target for 2030.
Utilities bullish on renewables investments
• Italy’s Enel announced plans to spend 80% of its US$30b capital
expenditure through 2021 on renewables and grid operations. Q1 saw the
company acquire US$256m of renewables assets across the Americas and
Asia-Pacific.
Europe
Page 23
We are not interested in the power business because we
liked what we saw in the last 20 years. We are interested
because we think we like what we see in the next 20 years …
We can make better returns than the industry has done so
far – 8-12% is the range we’ve been talking about4.
Maarten Wetselaar,
Director, New Energies, Shell
“
4 https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1726552/oil-giant-shell-aims-to-be-worlds-biggest-power-company
24. Europe
78% of deal
value was
concentrated in
three countries:
Germany,
Luxembourg
and the UK.
56% of
transactions
(US$3.8b) were
domestic deals
with most
(US$3.4b)
conducted by
financial investors.
Europe regional capital flows — Q1 2019 (US$b)
Germany attracts most investment
Page 24
0.8
0.3
UK
1.1
Top investor countries/regions
Germany UK Switzerland Australia JapanFrance
0.5
1.1
Luxembourg
1.6
0.5
Russia
0.5
0.3
Iceland
0.3
While financial investors have stepped up
their game by acquiring renewables assets
(US$3.9b), we are seeing increased
greenfield investment commitments from
utilities. Big utilities, such as Iberdrola and
ENGIE, plan to invest more than US$17b in
renewables by 2022.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
“2.6
Germany
2.6
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
25. Investors’ growing
interest in both offshore
and onshore wind energy
highlights the increasing
maturity of this
technology.
Announcement
date
Target
Target country/bidder
country
Bidder
Deal value
(US$b)
Bidder rationale Segment
13 February
Veja Mate
Offshore Project
GmbH (80%
stake)
Germany/Germany
KGAL GmbH & Co.
KG; Ingka Holding
B.V.; Commerz Real
AG; wpd invest
GmbH
2.6
Supports Commerz Real’s
sustainability goal to achieve a 2020
target of renewable energy
production exceeding energy
consumption
Renewables
27 February NovEnergia II Luxembourg/France Total Eren 1.1
Aligns with bidder’s strategy to
expand in the European market by
enabling market entry into
Luxembourg; Total Eren is already
present in France, Greece and Italy
Renewables
1 February
SSE Plc
(Dunmaglass
wind farm)
(35.5% stake);
SSE Plc
(Stronelairg wind
farm) (35.5%
stake)
UK/UK
Greencoat UK
Wind Plc
0.6
Expands Greencoat’s portfolio of
renewable energy assets
Renewables
28 January
En+ Group plc
(10.55% stake) Russia/Switzerland Glencore Plc 0.5
Transaction is part of a securities
swap that was done to facilitate
delisting of En+ Group
Generation
29 January
Miya
Luxembourg
Holdings S.a.r.l
Luxembourg/UK
Bridgepoint
Advisers Limited
0.5
Supports bidder’s strategy to invest
in operationally strong natural
resources businesses
Water and
wastewater
Note: All deals are announced deals, and the values indicated are disclosed enterprise values comprised of equity and debt components.
Europe
Top five Europe deals — Q1 2019
Page 25
26. Europe
Valuations and TSR snapshot — Q1 2019
The EY Europe Utilities Index underperformed
with a quarter-to-date return of 8.4%, compared
with the regional benchmark — STOXX Europe 600
— with a return of 12.4%.
Renewables remained the highest performer in
the region, driven by the performances of Falck
Renewables S.p.A. (37.9%), Terna Energy Societe
Anonyme Commercial Technical Company S.A.
(21.6%) and Energiekontor AG (21.0%).
The sector’s EV/FY2 EBTIDA multiple of 7.3x was
slightly higher than the Q4 value of 7.1x.
Generation and medium and small market
capitalization integrated assets were valued at a
discount compared with the sector’s EV/FY2
EBITDA valuations.
Return over time — from base date
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis
1
2
3
4
Page 26
Chart 8: Total shareholder return by segment
(1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
Stoxx Europe 600 TR (total return) % Large market capitalization integrated utility
Medium and small capitalization integrated utility Gas utility
Generation Renewables
Water and wastewater
STOXX Europe 600 TR (total return) %
27. Valuations and TSR snapshot — Q1 2019 (continued)
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
Gas utility
Generation
Renewables
Water and wastewater
EY Europe Utilities Index
TSR >20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% premium compared with the regional sector average
TSR performance >20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% premium compared with the regional sector average
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Europe
Page 27
Q1
QTD TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
EV/FY2 EBITDA
(At 31 March 2019)
• The gas utility segment returned a quarterly
TSR of 12.1%, above the regional index average
of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.8x,
34% above the regional average but less than
that of Asia-Pacific and Americas (14.8x and
11.1x, respectively).
Gas utility
• The medium and small market capitalization
integrated segment returned a quarterly TSR of
4.0%, below the regional index average of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 5.0x,
less than results recorded in Asia-Pacific and
Americas (10.4x and 9.6x, respectively).
Medium and small market
capitalization integrated
• The large market capitalization integrated
returned a quarterly TSR of 9.3%, which was
above the regional index average of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2EBITDA multiple traded at 7.5x,
which was the lowest of all regions (Asia-Pacific
8.3x; Americas 10.5x).
Large market capitalization
integrated
• The water and wastewater segment returned a
quarterly TSR of 8.4%, in line with the regional
index average of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 8.5x,
which is 16.5% above the regional sector
multiple. It is less than valuations exhibited in
Asia-Pacific and Americas (9.9x and 13.6x,
respectively).
Water and wastewater
• The renewables segment returned a quarterly
TSR of 15.6%, above the regional index average
of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.1x,
which is 26% above the regional average. The
valuation is less than those achieved in Asia-
Pacific and Americas (12.5x and 11.7x,
respectively).
Renewables
• The generation segment returned a quarterly
TSR of 2.4%, below the regional index average
of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 5.7x,
less than that of Asia-Pacific and Americas
(7.8x and 8.3x, respectively).
Generation
9.3%
4.0%
12.1%
2.4%
15.6%
8.4%
8.4% 7.3x
8.5x
9.1x
5.7x
9.8x
5.0x
7.5x
28. Utilities focus on decarbonization
• Czech utility CEZ Group has announced plans to shut 1 GW of coal capacity by 2020.
• ENGIE has announced that it will invest between US$12.4b and US$13.5b in renewables and behind-the-
meter solutions. The utility plans to add 9 GW of renewables capacity from 2019 to 2021.
• According to EDP’s strategic plan, more than 70% of the company’s electricity generation by 2022 will be
sourced from renewables.
• Enel has announced plans to develop 11.6 GW of renewables capacity by 2021.
Increased push for EVs
• The EU has tightened caps on carbon dioxide emissions from cars, setting a 37.5% CO2 reduction target for
2030 compared with the 2021 limit. The move aims to accelerate the development of EVs.
• During 2019, Scottish Power will expand the EV charging infrastructure in the UK, as part of its plan to
invest US$2.6b in clean energy in the country.
• UK-based GRIDSERVE Sustainable Energy, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy projects,
plans to spend US$1.3b on new EV charging infrastructure in the UK over the next five years.
EU at risk to miss 2030 renewables and energy savings goals
• WindEurope released analysis indicating that Europe’s draft National Energy and Climate Plans are
insufficient to deliver the EU’s 32% renewables target for 2030. The group called for more definitive Plans
supporting renewables growth. These Plans must be finalized by 31 December 2019.
• The Coalition for Energy Savings indicated that stronger GDP growth (mainly in Eastern Europe) was putting
the EU’s overall nonbinding target to improve its energy efficiency by 32.5% at risk.
M&A outlook and investment hotspots
US$1.14b
green bond launched by Enel to
finance new renewables,
transmission and distribution
networks, and e-mobility projects
We plan to eliminate any range
or charging anxiety by building a
UK-wide network of customer-
focused, brand-new Electric
Forecourts that will make it
easier and cheaper to use an
electric vehicle than a petrol or
diesel alternative5.
Toddington Harper,
Chief Executive Officer, GRIDSERVE
Europe
“
Page 28
5 https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/plans-for-100-uk-ev-charging-forecourts-unveiled-gridserve/
29. Europe
EY Europe Transaction Advisory Services P&U contacts
Miles Huq Arnaud De Giovanni John Curtin Grigory Arutunyan
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
+1 410 783 3735
miles.huq@ey.com
EY EMEIA P&U TAS Leader EY UK & Ireland (UKI) P&U TAS Leader EY Central, Eastern and Southeastern
Europe and Central Asia (CESA) Region
P&U TAS Leader
+33 1 55 61 04 18
arnaud.de.giovanni@fr.ey.com
+44 20 7951 6257
jcurtin@uk.ey.com
+7 495 641 2941
grigory.s.arutunyan@ru.ey.com
Giacomo Chiavari Andreas Siebel Bruno Swildens Michael Bruhn
EY Mediterranean P&U TAS Leader EY Germany, Switzerland and Austria (GSA)
P&U TAS Leader
EY Western Europe and Maghreb (WEM)
P&U TAS Leader
EY Nordics P&U TAS Leader
+39 027 2212 3090
giacomo.chiavari@it.ey.com
+49 211 9352 18523
andreas.siebel@de.ey.com
+31 88 40 78776
bruno.jelgerhuis.swildens@nl.ey.com
+45 2529 3135
michael.bruhn@dk.ey.com
Page 29
31. Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific is feeling the
pressure of slowing
Chinese economic
growth. This, coupled
with continuing
geopolitical tensions,
weighed heavy on
investors this quarter.
However, greenfield
renewable development is
providing growth
opportunities in the
region.
Mile Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
US$4.1b
total deal value, a 45% decline from Q4 2018
US$3.6b
deal value in renewables – 88% of deal value
Chart 9: Asia-Pacific deal value and volume by segment
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
“
Page 31
Transaction highlights
Deal value and volume fall
• Deal value and volume decreased 45%
quarter-on-quarter, reaching a low of 27
deals totaling US$4.1b.
Chinese privatization dominates Q1
• The quarter’s largest deal — 70% of deal
value — was China Power New Energy’s
delisting of China Power Clean Energy
Development Company Limited (CP Clean
Energy) from the Hong Kong Stock
Exchange.
Renewables drive activity
• Renewables M&A was the only segment to
increase in value from Q4 2018, more than
doubling to reach US$3.6b and forming 88%
of deal value. Much of the increase was due
to the privatization of CP Clean Energy (80%
of all renewables deal value).
Continuing investment in generation
• Q1 saw six small deals in conventional
generation — the highest deal number in this
segment across all regions. Investment is led
by domestic activity in Greater China (five of
the six deals).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Dealvolume(numberofdeals)
Dealvalue(US$b)
Generation Integrated utility Energy services
Renewables Gas utility Water and wastewater
Volume
32. Asia-Pacific
New solar and wind projects attract investment
• The development of offshore wind capacity is
ramping up, with Australia, Japan, China, Korea
and India all announcing projects or in the midst
of tender processes. China’s Jiangsu province
approved 24 offshore wind power projects with
a total capacity of 6.7 GW. In South Korea,
state-owned National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
and Equinor, a Norwegian utility, are exploring
opportunities to develop 200 MW capacity of
commercial floating offshore wind farms.
Offshore wind accelerating India focuses on solar
• India has set an ambitious target to achieve
100 GW of solar power by 2022. Development
of capacity is well underway with a number of
solar developments announced this quarter.
Notably, the Solar Energy Corporation of India
Ltd. (SECI) has issued a tender for the
development of a 275 MW of grid-connected
solar PV project in Uttar Pradesh, 1.2 GW in
Madhya Pradesh and 200 MW in Andhra Pradesh
with plans to issue another tender for 1 GW
soon.
Executing an MOU with Equinor will become a critical opportunity
that will advance to practical steps of floating offshore wind in
Korea. We plan to actively focus on progress and de-risking studies,
including feasibility studies in collaboration with Equinor6.
Jae-Heon Shim,
Senior Vice President, KNOC
• More large energy users are developing
renewables projects to reduce exposure to price
volatility. Malabar Coal announced plans to build
a 25 MW solar farm, while Gold Fields Australia
signed a contract with UK-based power solution
company Aggreko to build an off-grid renewable
and battery system at a Western Australian mine.
There are rumors that telecommunications giant
Telstra will issue a tender for 300 MW of new
solar and/or wind power in the New South Wales
market to cut its exposure to volatile grid prices.
Australia’s corporates boost greenfield
development
“
Page 32
6 https://www.power-technology.com/news/knoc-equinor-south-korea/
33. 83% of total deal value
(US$3.4b) was
concentrated in Greater
China.
93% of deal value
(US$3.8b) was domestic.
Asia-Pacific
Limited M&A activity
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
Greater China continues to be the biggest investor in Asia-
Pacific, investing both domestically and internationally.
While the outbound agenda is significant, we are seeing
increasing appetite for domestic M&A.
Asia-Pacific regional capital flows — Q1 2019 (US$b)
“
Page 33
0.2
South
Korea
0.2
3.5
Greater
China
3.5
0.3
India
0.3
0.1
Thailand
0.1
Note: Numbers may not add to total due to rounding.
Greater China UK ThailandSouth Korea
Top investor countries/regions
34. Asia-Pacific
Top five Asia-Pacific deals — Q1 2019
Announcement
date
Target Target country/
bidder country
Bidder Deal value
(US$b)
Bidder rationale Segment
28 March
China Power Clean
Energy Development Co.
Ltd. (73.58% stake)
Greater China/
Greater China
China Power International
Holding Limited
2.9
Aligns with bidder’s
strategy to expand its
renewables portfolio
and delist the target
company from the Hong
Kong Stock Exchange
Renewables
1 March
Ayana Renewable Power
Private Limited
India/UK
CDC Group plc; National
Investment and
Infrastructure Fund (NIIF);
EverSource Capital Group
0.3
Furthers bidder’s strategy
to expand into India’s
renewable energy market
Renewables
22 February
Youngduk Wind Power
Co., Ltd.; Yeong Yang
Wind Power
Corporation
South Korea/ South
Korea
Samtan Co., Ltd.; Shinhan
Alternative Investment
Management Inc.
0.2
Supports investors’ plans
to expand into wind
energy
Renewables
7 March
Qinhuangdao Qinre
Electric Power Co., Ltd.
(40% stake); Hebei
Zhanghewan Storage
Power Generation Co.,
Ltd. (45% stake)
Greater China/
Greater China
Jointo Energy Investment
Co., Ltd. Hebei
0.2
Enables Jionto Energy
Investment to consolidate
market share and enhance
power generation capacity
Generation
20 March
TBEA Xinjiang New
Energy Co., Ltd.
(15.02% stake)
Greater China/
Greater China
Bank of Communications
Financial Asset
Investment Co., Ltd.
0.1
Improves the financing
capacities of Xinjiang and
supports the development
and operation of wind and
solar projects
Renewables
Note: All deals are announced deals, and the values indicated are disclosed enterprise values comprised of equity and debt components.
Page 34
Investment in India’s
solar sector is on the
rise.
35. Asia-Pacific
Valuations and TSR snapshot — Q1 2019
Note: Please see the appendix for information on the company assignment to each segment.
The EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index recorded a
TSR of 8.2%, underperforming the regional
benchmark Nikkei 225, which recorded a TSR
of 9.6%.
1
Renewables was the highest performing
segment, outperforming the market with a QTD
return of 27.6%, attributed to the high TSR of
Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy and CECEP Wind-
power Corporation.
2
The EV/FY2 EBITDA of the sector traded
slightly downward at 10.3x, compared with
11.7x in Q4 2018.
3
Generation delivered a negative QTD return
with a TSR of -0.62%, the worst performing
segment across all regions.
4
Page 35
Return over time — from base date
Chart 10: Total shareholder return by segment
(from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
85%
95%
105%
115%
125%
135%
145%
01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
Nikkei 225 TR (total return) % Large market capitalization integrated utility
Medium and small capitalization integrated utility Gas utility
Generation Renewables
Water and wastewater
36. Asia-Pacific
Valuations and TSR snapshot — Q1 2019 (continued)
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
Gas utility
Generation
Renewables
Water and wastewater
EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index
TSR >20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% premium compared with the regional sector average
TSR performance >20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% premium compared with the regional sector average
Page 36
Q1
QTD TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
EV/FY2 EBITDA
(At 31 March 2019)
• Gas utility assets returned a quarterly TSR of
8.7%, which is above the regional index average
of 8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 14.8x,
which is 43% above the average regional sector
multiple and greater than the results of Europe
and Americas (9.8x and 11.1x, respectively).
Gas utility
• The medium and small market capitalization
integrated segment returned a quarterly TSR of
6.3%, below the regional index average of 8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 10.4x,
which is 1% above the average regional sector
multiple but greater than that of Europe and
Americas (5.0x and 9.6x, respectively).
Medium and small market
capitalization integrated
• The large market capitalization integrated
returned a quarterly TSR of 2.2%, which is
below the regional index average of 8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 8.3x,
which is 19% below the average regional sector
multiple and greater than that of Europe but
less than Americas (7.5x and 10.5x,
respectively).
Large market capitalization
integrated
• The water and wastewater segment returned a
quarterly TSR of 14.1%, above the regional
index average of 8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.9x,
which is below the average regional sector
multiple. The result is greater than that of
Europe (8.5x) but less than that of Americas
(13.6x).
Water and wastewater
• Renewables assets returned a quarterly TSR of
27.6%, which is above the regional index
average of 8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 12.5x,
which is 21% above the average regional sector
multiple and greater than that of Europe and
Americas (9.1x and 11.7x, respectively).
Renewables
• The generation assets returned a quarterly TSR
of -0.6%, below the regional index average of
8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 7.8x,
which is 25% below the average regional sector
multiple. The result is greater than that of
Europe (5.7x) but less than that achieved in
Americas (8.3x).
Generation
2.2%
6.3%
8.7%
-0.6%
27.6%
14.1%
8.2% 10.3x
9.9x
12.5x
7.8x
14.8x
10.4x
8.3x
37. Asia-Pacific
M&A outlook and investment hotspots
Bangladesh attracts solar investment
• Bangladesh has become an attractive investment destination, particularly for solar projects. The
country plans to add 2,500 MW capacity each year, with a target of 10% renewables by 2021. In
this quarter alone, more than 150 MW of new solar projects and tenders have been announced.
The World Bank has approved US$185m in credit to facilitate the development of an additional
310 MW renewable energy generation capacity to meet growing demand for electricity, which is
also encouraging private investment.
Thailand will allow customers to export to the grid
• Thai policymakers are currently consulting around how householders with new solar PV
installations can export excess power to the grid, with a feed-in tariff for up to 100 MW of
capacity. The project is in line with the Power Development Plan that targets 12.7 GW of solar by
2037.
Electric vehicle (EV) pilots aim to boost adoption
• Panasonic is collaborating with BSES Yamuna Power Limited to set up an EV charging station at
its New Delhi head office to study charging behavior and patterns, real-time charging data, app-
based controls and automated payment mechanisms. New Zealand’s Wellington City Council
announced plans to install its first EV charging stations in residential areas, enabling people
without access to household parking to charge EVs overnight.
We have a number of charging stations
in the central business district, but
residential charging stations will mean
EVs could be a practical option for
Wellingtonians wanting to make the
switch to them7.
Justin Lester,
Mayor, Wellington City
US$9.2b
of offshore wind tenders to be
launched by Japan in 2019
“
Page 37
7 https://wellington.govt.nz/your-council/news/2019/03/15-ev-chargers-for-the-suburbs.
38. Asia-Pacific
EY Asia-Pacific P&U Transaction Advisory Services contacts
EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY Oceania P&U TAS Leader EY ASEAN P&U TAS Leader EY Greater China P&U TAS Leader
Miles Huq Nick Cardno Gilles Pascual Alex Zhu
+1 410 783 3735
miles.huq@ey.com
+61 2 9248 4817
nick.cardno@au.ey.com
+65 6309 6208
gilles.pascual@sg.ey.com
+86 10 5815 3891
alex.zhu@cn.ey.com
EY India P&U TAS Leader EY Japan P&U TAS Leader EY Korea P&U TAS Leader
Somesh Kumar Yo Takehana Bum Choong Kim
+91 11 6671 8270
somesh.kumar@in.ey.com
+81 3 4582 6623
yo.takehana@jp.ey.com
+82 2 3787 4107
bum-choong.kim@kr.ey.com
Page 38
39. Africa and the
Middle East
Governments focus on
renewable energy while
financial sponsors invest
40. Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Africa and the Middle East
of electricity in the
Middle East and North
Africa to come from solar
PV by 2050
smart meters to be
installed in Africa and
the Middle East by 2030
39%
235.2m
Chart 11: Africa and the Middle East smart
metering investments (US$b)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: EY analysis based on publicly disclosed data
Chart 12: Africa and the Middle East deal value
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, 2010–Q1 2019)
Page 40
0.8 0.8
0.9
1.0
1.2
2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
2019
US$b
Year
Transaction highlights
Continued funding of new renewables investment
• The African Development Bank is financing the construction of
renewable power plants across Sub-Saharan Africa with a combined
capacity of 533 MW.
• In January, Voltalia, a French-based energy services company,
announced plans to build a 40 MW solar power plant in Western
Kenya.
• Harmony Gold, a South Africa-based mining company, is planning to
build a 30 MW solar power plant to power its operations in Africa.
• In February, France’s ENGIE began operations of its 100 MW Kathu
solar CSP plus storage plant located in South Africa’s Northern Cape
province.
Largest deal of the region in water and wastewater
• Majis Industrial Services S.A.O.C, an Oman-based, government-owned
company, acquired an undisclosed stake in Utico FZC, the UAE-based
company engaged in water treatment and management solutions, for
a consideration of US$400m.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) secures record low
auction for first wind farm
• KSA’s first wind farm — the 400 MW Dumat Al Jandal farm — will be
developed by a consortium made up of renewable energy developers
EDF Renewables and Masdar, which were awarded the contract
following their record-low bid of 2.13 cents per kWh.
41. KSA increases renewables target
Weak economic conditions drive privatization and
unbundling
• After limited activity in 2018, the KSA’s Renewable Energy Project
Development Office (REPDO) has increased its solar energy target from 9.5
GW to nearly 60 GW, including 40 GW of solar PV.
• The government has followed the successful connection of its first solar IPP in
January with the announcement of several new renewables tenders, including
a 2.6 GW of solar in Makkah, the Dumat Al Jandal wind farm and seven
greenfield solar PV projects with a combined capacity of 1,500 MW.
Africa and the Middle East
Governments seek energy reform and refocus on renewables
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has set a
clear energy strategy to substantially
increase the share of renewables in its
total energy mix to 10% by 20238.
Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi,
CEO, Masdar
• Oman plans to privatize two power companies by selling 70% and
49% stakes in Muscat Electricity Distribution Company and Oman
Electricity Transmission Company, respectively, following weak
economic conditions due to depressed oil prices. The government
has expressions of interest from 25 investors.
• South Africa is considering unbundling state-owned utility Eskom
into three separate units: generation, transmission and distribution.
The utility has faced financial, operational and governance
challenges in recent years.
“
Page 41
South Africa moves to boost clean energy
• After a three-year hiatus of the country’s Renewable Energy Independent
Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), the end of March saw
the signing of 27 outstanding renewables PPAs.
• This development is expected to lead the way for more renewables projects —
a new round of bidding will be launched later this year with an estimated
program of 1,800 MW capacity.
40 GW
of solar energy capacity in Saudi Arabia by 2030
8 https://masdar.ae/en/news-and-events/news/2019/01/11/11/46/the-edf-renewables-masdar-consortium-awarded-the-dumat-al-jandal-wind-project-in-saudi-arabia
42. I am so excited to launch this third expedition of the
electric cars. This is an indication of how technology has
evolved in the UAE over the years. The government will
continue to promote all types of conservation drives in the
country as we look forward towards sustainability9.
Suhail Mohammed Faraj Al Mazroui,
UAE Minister of Energy & Industry
US$1.68b
estimated value of the Gulf region’s smart
grid market by 2026
Increasing focus on e-mobility solutions
• Dubai is incentivizing the use of electric vehicles (EVs) through
initiatives, including free public charging, free vehicle registrations and
dedicated parking locations.
• The Emirates Authority for Standardization and Metrology has
developed technical regulations for hydrogen cell vehicles, making the
UAE the first of the Gulf Cooperation Council to do so.
• Shell South Africa will launch its first EV charging stations this year
across its retail network in South Africa.
• Nissan Motor Co. plans to partner with Egyptian authorities to develop
the country’s EV ecosystem.
Focus on smart grid investments and e-mobility
More investment in Middle East smart grid
infrastructure
• Nokia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Saudi
Electricity Company to deploy 10 million smart meters in Saudi Arabia.
• Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity and Water has issued a request for
procurement for smart meters.
• Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has signed an MoU with Saudi
Aramco to cooperate on energy, research and development, and
smart grids.
Africa and the Middle East
Page 42
9 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/nation/abu-dhabi/twelve-electric-cars-start-2000-km-trip-to-spread-the-green-message
“
43. Bidder company/country Target country Project description Segment
Dubai Electricity and Water
Authority/UAE
UAE Plans to set up a 900 MW solar PV power plant Renewables
Emirates Water and Electricity
Company/UAE
UAE Plans to build a 2,000 MW solar plant in Dubai Renewables
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development/Ethiopia
Ethiopia
Plans to develop solar PV plants with a combined
capacity of 800 MW at an investment of US$795m
Renewables
Oman Power and Water
Procurement Company/Oman
Oman
Will invest US$400m to set up a 500 MW solar PV
project
Renewables
Ministry of Energy, Industry and
Mineral Resources/Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Plans to build solar projects of 2,600 MW capacity in
Makkah region
Renewables
Top five Africa and the Middle East greenfield investments — Q1 2019
Africa and the Middle East
Page 43
44. Africa and the Middle East
M&A outlook and investment hotspots
Investment in off-grid energy access will continue to rise
• Investment in off-grid energy access, which includes businesses that sell solar panels
to power lights, cell phones and other household devices, as well as microgrids that
power entire communities, reached almost US$1.7b by the end of 2018, up from almost
zero in 2010.
• A sector traditionally funded by nonprofits has seen the entrance of large strategic
investors, including European utilities, such as ENGIE and EDF; oil and gas majors,
including Shell and Total; and energy technology providers, including Schneider Electric.
Renewables development to accelerate further
• Lebanon has short-listed 28 firms in its tender for a 180 MW solar power project.
• Algeria will issue tenders for a 150 MW solar power project in 2019 to meet growing
electricity demand.
• Nigeria’s University of Benin has launched a tender for a 15 MW solar power project that
includes 5 MW of battery energy storage.
• Qatar plans to launch an energy-focused Islamic bank in late 2019 with a targeted capital
of US$10b to finance both domestic and global energy projects.
US$1.7b
investment in off-grid energy
access in 2018
Page 44
45. Africa and the Middle East
EY Africa and the Middle East Transaction Advisory Services P&U contacts
EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY Middle East P&U TAS Leader
Miles Huq David Lloyd
+1 410 783 3735
miles.huq@ey.com
+966 11 215 9852
david.lloyd@sa.ey.com
Page 45
47. Appendix: Definitions
Company segment definitions
Segment EY definition
Large market capitalization Utilities with market capitalization more than US$10b and engaged in multiple segments of the power value chain —
generation, T&D, and retail or T&D and retail — and utilities that have T&D business and substantial presence in
other segments, as well as from the perspective of revenues
Medium and small market
capitalization
Utilities with market capitalization less than US$10b and engaged in multiple segments of the power value chain —
generation, T&D, and retail or T&D and retail — and utilities that have T&D business and substantial presence in
other segments, as well as from the perspective of revenues
Gas Utilities that generate the majority of their revenues from downstream gas, including transmission, distribution and
the sale of gas as an energy source
Generation Utilities that generate the majority of their revenues from power production through large centralized
(nonrenewable) sources, including coal, gas, oil, large hydro and nuclear
Renewables Utilities that are engaged in generating power from centralized or distributed renewable energy sources, including
solar, wind and small hydro
Water and wastewater Utilities that manage water and wastewater networks, and engage in the distribution, supply or treatment of water
and wastewater
Page 47
48. Americas company segment tagging for valuations analysis
Large market capitalization
integrated
Alliant Energy Corp.
Ameren Corp.
American Electric Power Company, Inc.
Avangrid, Inc.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc.
CMS Energy Corp.
Consolidated Edison, Inc.
Dominion Energy, Inc.
DTE Energy Company
Duke Energy Corp.
Edison International
Entergy Corp.
Evergy, Inc.
Eversource Energy
Exelon Corp.
FirstEnergy Corp.
Fortis Inc.
Integrated utility in Pennsylvania
NextEra Energy, Inc.
Pinnacle West Capital Corp.
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc.
Sempra Energy
Southern Company
WEC Energy Group, Inc.
Xcel Energy Inc.
Appendix: Americas
Medium and small market capitalization
integrated
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
ALLETE, Inc.
ATCO Ltd.
Avista Corp.
Black Hills Corp.
Canadian Utilities Ltd.
Companhia Energética de Brasília - CEB
Crius Energy Trust
EDP - Energias do Brasil S.A.
El Paso Electric Company
Emera Inc.
Genie Energy Ltd.
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.
Hydro One Ltd.
Just Energy Group Inc.
Light S.A.
MDU Resources Group, Inc.
MGE Energy, Inc.
NorthWestern Corp.
OGE Energy Corp.
Otter Tail Corp.
PG&E Corp.
PNM Resources, Inc.
Portland General Electric Company
SCANA Corp.
Spark Energy, Inc.
Unitil Corp.
Vectren Corp.
Gas
AltaGas Ltd.
Atmos Energy Corp.
Chesapeake Utilities Corp.
National Fuel Gas Company
New Jersey Resources Corp.
NiSource Inc.
Northwest Natural Holding Company
ONE Gas, Inc.
RGC Resources, Inc.
South Jersey Industries, Inc.
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
Spire Inc.
TransCanada Corp.
UGI Corp.
Valener Inc.
Generation
Capital Power Corp.
CESP - Companhia Energética de São Paulo
NRG Energy, Inc.
The AES Corp.
TransAlta Corp.
Vistra Energy Corp.
Renewables
AES Tietê Energia S.A.
Boralex Inc.
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
Canadian Solar Inc.
Clearway Energy, Inc.
Covanta Holding Corp.
CPFL Energias Renováveis S.A.
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.
NextEra Energy Partners, LP
Northland Power Inc.
Ormat Technologies, Inc.
Pattern Energy Group Inc.
SunPower Corp.
Sunrun Inc.
TerraForm Power, Inc.
TransAlta Renewables Inc.
Vivint Solar, Inc.
Water and wastewater
American States Water Company
American Water Works Company, Inc.
Aqua America, Inc.
Artesian Resources Corp.
California Water Service Group
Connecticut Water Service, Inc.
Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.
Middlesex Water Company
SJW Group
The York Water Company
Page 48
49. Europe company segment tagging for valuations analysis
Large market capitalization
integrated
CEZ, a. s.
E.ON SE
EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A.
Electricité de France S.A.
Endesa, S.A.
Enel SpA
ENGIE SA
Fortum Oyj
Iberdrola, S.A.
innogy SE
National Grid plc
Red Eléctrica Corporación, S.A.
RWE Aktiengesellschaft
SSE plc
Terna - Rete Elettrica Nazionale Società per
Azioni
VERBUND AG
Medium and small market capitalization
integrated
ACCIONA, S.A.
Alpiq Holding AG
Centrica plc
Drax Group plc
Elia System Operator SA
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG
Enea S.A.
EVN AG
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A.
Public Joint Stock Company Inter RAO UES
Public Joint-Stock Company Moscow United
Electric Grid Company
Public Power Corp. S.A.
Rosseti, Public Joint Stock Company
TAURON Polska Energia S.A.
Gas
AS Latvijas Gaze
Enagás, S.A.
Hera S.p.A.
Italgas S.p.A.
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A.
Rubis
Snam S.p.A.
Generation
A2A S.p.A.
Irkutsk Public Joint Stock Company of
Energetics and Electrification
Public Joint Stock Company Donbasenergo
Public Joint-Stock Company Federal Hydro-
Generating Company - RusHydro
Uniper SE
Renewables
aventron AG
EDP Renováveis, S.A.
Energiekontor AG
Falck Renewables S.p.A.
FUTUREN SA
Ørsted A/S
Terna Energy Societe Anonyme Commercial
Technical Company S.A.
Water and wastewater
Pennon Group Plc
Severn Trent Plc
SUEZ SA
United Utilities Group PLC
Veolia Environnement S.A.
Appendix: Europe
Page 49
50. Asia-Pacific company segment tagging for valuations analysis
Large market capitalization
integrated
Chubu Electric Power Company, Inc.
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd.
CLP Holdings Ltd.
Korea Electric Power Corp.
Power Assets Holdings Ltd.
Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd.
Tenaga Nasional Berhad
The Kansai Electric Power Company, Inc.
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc
Medium and small market capitalization
integrated
AGL Energy Ltd.
AusNet Services Ltd.
BKW AG
CESC Ltd.
Contact Energy Ltd.
Electric Power Development Co., Ltd.
ERM Power Ltd.
Genesis Energy Ltd.
HK Electric Investments and HK Electric
Investments Ltd.
Hokkaido Electric Power Company, Inc.
Hokuriku Electric Power Company
JSW Energy Ltd.
Kyushu Electric Power Company, Inc.
Origin Energy Ltd.
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding
Public Company Ltd.
Shikoku Electric Power Company, Inc.
The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc.
The Tata Power Company Ltd.
Tohoku Electric Power Company, Inc.
Trustpower Ltd.
Vector Ltd.
Gas
APA Group
China Gas Holdings Ltd.
ENN Energy Holdings Ltd.
Korea Gas Corporation
Osaka Gas Co., Ltd.
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk
Shenzhen Gas Corp. Ltd.
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Ltd.
Toho Gas Co., Ltd.
Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd.
Generation
Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy Co., Ltd.
China Power International Development Ltd.
Datang International Power Generation Co.,
Ltd.
First Philippine Holdings Corp.
GuiZhou QianYuan Power Co., Ltd.
Huadian Power International Corp. Ltd.
Huaneng Power International, Inc.
Mercury NZ Ltd.
NHPC Ltd.
NTPC Ltd.
OPG Power Ventures PLC
Reliance Power Ltd.
Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Renewables
CECEP Wind-power Corp. Co., Ltd.
China Datang Corp. Renewable Power Co.,
Ltd.
Huaneng Renewables Corp. Ltd.
Kong Sun Holdings Ltd.
Meridian Energy Ltd.
Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co., Ltd.
Water and wastewater
Beijing Enterprises Water Group Ltd.
Beijing Water Business Doctor Co., Ltd.
Binh Duong Water - Environment Joint Stock
Company
China Water Affairs Group Ltd.
Chongqing Water Group Co., Ltd.
Daiseki Co., Ltd.
Eastern Water Resources Development and
Management Public Company Ltd.
Guangdong Investment Ltd.
Luenmei Quantum Co., Ltd.
Manila Water Company, Inc.
SIIC Environment Holdings Ltd.
TTW Public Company Ltd.
Tus-Sound Environmental Resources Co., Ltd.
VA Tech Wabag Ltd.
WHA Utilities and Power Public Company Ltd.
Appendix: Asia-Pacific
Page 50