1. ViCiSi -
The Virtual City
Simulator
Dynamic cost assessment related to
outages in critical infrastructure by
assessing Societal Activities
EffectPlus
Amsterdam July 4—5 2011
Tekn. Lic Mats B-O Larsson
MML Analys & Strategi AB
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2. Who am I?
Mats B-O Larsson
Consultant, MML Analys & Strategi AB
Chairman of the Board of Directors of Telge Energi Nät AB (A Swedish mid sized
Infrastructure Distribution Company
- Water And Sewage,
- Electrical Grid,
- District Heating,
- Broadband
Chairman of the Board of Directors of Lyckeby Research Foundation
Member of the Board of Directors of Lyckeby Starch AB (a global Starch Producer)
Member of the Board of Directors of Culinar AB (a global Starch Producer)
Tech. Lic. of Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, 2005
M.Sc., (Engineering Physics), Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, 1980
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3. “Microorganisms” are
the greatest threats … … to our Critical
1) Microorganisms, such as viruses
infrastructure
and bacteria, which infects our water
distribution systems Electrical Power Grid
Not necessary from antagonists Telecommunications
More probable by carelessness and
Payment systems
lack of hygiene within the water
distribution system Water and sewage
2) Cyberorganisms which infects our
power grid SCADA systems
Antagonist threats by trojans,
viruses, Denial of Service attacks,
etc.
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4. Assessment of social costs after an outage
in critical infrastructure
We need methods to assess the costs to the society from
disturbances in the critical infrastructure
To optimize our investments to mitigate outages
The two common ways to measure social outage costs are:
Alt. 1 Assess the consumers preferences:
Ask the customer! Customer surveys are the most common. There are a number of
surveys done in most countries. Many problems!
Alt. 2 Assess the decrease of activity in the society:
Asses the GDP influence
The drawback is that it requires a profile of the activities in the society
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5. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement
of economic activities in a society
The economic activity in a society is best described by the Gross Domestic Product
GDP is measured in three alternative perspectives: 1) Production perspective, 2) End-
use (consumption) perspective and 3) Distribution perspective
The cost of an outage in the power supply can be measured as the reduction in one GDP-
perspective
However, it is important to be aware of
which perspective the cost measurement
concerns
Costs from two perspectives can’t be
added to get a total cost.
Business activity is measured in the
Production perspective
Household activity is measured in the
End-use perspective
Thus:
Outage costs ≠ OutageCostBusiness +
CoutageCostHousehold
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6. Activity Profiles in a Society
To assess the decrease of activity in the society we need a sum of all economic activities in an
undisturbed society, collected from each individual object, to get an aggregated Activity Profile for a
Society
i.e. a function, b(t), which reflects the societal activity at every a single operation at every moment, such as
∫one year b(t) dt = GDP
EUR/h
One year
There are no publicly available Business profiles!
ViCiSi creates Business Activity Profiles for all EU27 countries + Norway and
Switzerland
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7. Restoration after an outage comprises different kinds of
restoration; for example Power Restoration and
Society Restoration
Power
Normal operation Restoration Normal operation
Society Restoration
Power Restoration is the stage where the demand for power is increasing after the grid has
been energized. Some lost energy will also be recovered.
Society Restoration is the stage where the economic activity in the society is increasing after
the grid has been energized. Some lost economic values will also be recovered.
Society Restoration is normally considerably slower than the Power Restoration
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8. Why a Virtual society?
Why do we use a virtual society when there are so
many real societies, with real infrastructures?
And moreover when those societies has put lots off
efforts to digitally measure all assets?
A virtual society has a number of advantages:
Not conflicting with national security issues.
The concern of the national security after 9/11 has made it more
or less impossible to use “sharp” geographical and electrical
data!
Especially when we use large scale societies.
We can adapt simulations and results to
various environments and issues
We can adapt simulations and results to other
countries
We don’t need to cooperate with a specific
company to get geographical and electrical
data
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9. ViCiSi Static Objects
Assets
Blocks,
Houses,
Apartments and
Locations
Streets and railways
Electrical grid
Water and sewage (not
implemented yet)
Telecommunications (not
implemented yet)
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10. ViCiSi Dynamic Objects
Inhabitants Society Activity
Manufacturing
Retai
l
Operations School Hospital
Industries,
Public and private Service,
Utilities,
Load
Agriculture farms factor
(Pmax/
Pmean)
Activity profiles
Society Activity profile
Power Load Profile
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11. ViCiSi Geographical Features
All objects in ViCiSi has a
geographical distribution
Plane and Spherical
coordinates (Google earth
coordinates)
Three coordinate systems
Global (Earth)
Local (County)
Block
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12. ViCiSi Electrical Features
The electrical grid inside ViCiSi is a simplified
but correct electrical grid
dimensioned from the peak load of every
subscriber,
Taking care of the power coincidence with
other subscribers
Reflecting the geographical structure of
blocks and streets
Handles different voltage levels in the grid
Performs transformation between different
voltage levels
Calculation:
Time resolution 1/100th second
Actual load flow data is calculated at each
arbitrary time point (Active + Reactive power)
The line losses (Active + Reactive power)
Geographical distances, Manhattan length of
lines
The voltage levels inside ViCiSi are
400/220 kV
110 kV
40 kV
10 kV (black)
0.4 kV (yellow)
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13. Input to ViCiSi
EU-27 + Norway + Switzerland
Economic statistics from Eurostat
(year 2007) (http://
epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Energy consumption
Demographic statistics
Employment
Branch statistics
Country Area
Power Load Profiles from TSO’s
(http://www.entsoe.eu)
Hour values of country power
demand (year 2007)
Time Use statistics HETUS
Harmonised European Time Use Surveys
8https://www.h2.scb.se/tus/tus)
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14. ViCiSi Output: Business Activity to
Outage Cost Assessment
Actual Business Activity (EUR/h)
are summed for each object
Outage costs after Power Down/
Up (EUR/h) are summed for each
object
Business Restoration and
Business Recovery (slower than
Power Restoration)
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15. ViCiSi Output:
Movies
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16. ViCiSi Output: Maps
Maps of the infrastructure
Blocks, apartments, streets, Electrical grid, etc.
In Euclidic plane three dimensional coordinates (x,y,z) (XML-files)
Or spherical coordinates (longitude, latitude, z) for Google Earth (KML-files). The
kml-files can be imported to Google Earth as an overlay to the Google Earth Maps
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17. ViCiSi in the Viking project
Industrial Partners
ABB AG (Germany)
E.ON AG (Germany)
Astron (Hungary)
MML Analysis & Strategy (Sweden)
Academic Partners
Royal Institute of Technology (Sweden)
ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
University of Maryland (USA)
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18. From security requirements to social costs
Attack
SCADA system
Power network
Societal cost
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19. ViCiSi is a part of the Viking-Test Bed
ABB Primary SCADA ABB Secondary
2 HV/MV subs. SCADA
Includes 40 busbar model
ICCP
ICCP
IEC IEC
Internal Data
Exchange
WAN emulator
ABB Transmission IEC 104
system simulator (OTS) &
HV model IEC
XML
RTU Test & Monitoring
Data Exchange
as file
IEC
Astron substation simulator (NTS)
Session XML comm.
and MV model
Manager interface IED
2 HV/MV substation
Data Exchange
as file
Penetration and Analysis
XML Tools
Viking Country Simulator
and LV model
VIKING City 1 VIKING City n
(ViCiSi)
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20. Possibilities to use ViCiSi in other projects
The scope of ViCiSi is to use a virtual Dependencies between different
society to test the dynamics and resilience infrastructures
of critical infrastructures Electrical grid Telecommunication
Telecommunication Payment system
The dynamics between the individuals and the
society and the dependency of well functioning Electrical grid Water and Sewage
infrastructure Other disturbances will be implemented into
ViCiSi is built bottom up, i.e. from the the micro-level
Presents the costs to the society of different kinds of
the society, such as:
disturbances Poison in the fresh water
Proliferation of infections and diseases
ViCiSi Disturbances in telecommunication and the payment
Can run on different platforms Linux, Windows, Mac) system
Has a well defined xml-interface Disturbances in transportation
New features and other critical New Power profiles in Smart grid
infrastructures will be implemented/ The application of ViCiSi in simulation and
extended, such as real-life applications
Water distribution and sewage removal Cost of cyber attacks (the Viking Project)
Telecommunications To give estimates of outage costs
Payment systems investment planning
Transportation (Railway and buses) For maintenance (cost of planned outages)
Time Use statistics Measurements of the resilience in a society
New customer behavour in Smart Grid Systems
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21. Contact
Mats B-O Larsson
MML Analyse & Strategy AB
mats@mml.se
www.vicisi.eu, www.mml.se
Phone +4670 6508376
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