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1. SEAMEO Centre Directors Meeting, 16-18 July 2012,
Bangkok, Thailand
Efficiency of Schooling
for Skills
Proposal for SEAMEO-OECD co-operation
Ian Whitman, OECD
Head of Programme for Co-operation with Non-member
Economies

2. Selected Trends: A world of change in the global skill supply
Evolution of school completion
Approximated by % of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 and
25-34 years
1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s
%
100
90
1
80 10
70
60
50
40
30
20 1 29
10
0
Israel
Netherlands
Estonia
Austria3
Poland
Italy
Finland
France
Iceland
Norway
Slovenia
Ireland
Mexico
Brazil2
United Kingdom3
Germany
Switzerland
EU19 average
Korea
Belgium
Chile2
Greece
OECD average
Spain
Russian Federation4
Slovak Republic
Portugal
Canada
Hungary
Luxembourg
United States
Australia
Turkey
Czech Republic
Denmark
Sweden
New Zealand
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004
3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

3. Share of employers reporting recruitment difficulties
and unemployment rates
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 Percentage
Poland
Ireland
Norway
Spain
South Africa
Recruitment Unemployment United Kingdom
difficulties rate Sweden
Netherlands
France
Czech Republic
Hungary
China
Austria
Slovenia
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Germany
Greece
Mexico
New Zealand
Switzerland
Turkey
United States
Australia
Brazil
India
Japan
Share of employers reporting recruitment difficulties Unemployment rates (2011, Q3)

4. How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
65
Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
Routine manual
60
Nonroutine manual
55
Routine cognitive
50
Nonroutine analytic
45
Nonroutine interactive
40
1960 1970 1980 1990 2002
(Levy and Murnane)

5. Skill mismatch and earnings are strongly related
3000
2500
Monthly wages US$
2000
1500
1000
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Age
HIGH-SKILL MATCH (high foundation skill, high use) SKILL DEFICIT (low foundation skill, high use)
SKILL SURPLUS (high foundation skill, low use) LOW-SKILL MATCH (low foundation skill, low use)

6. Wealth matters - but effective policies matter more
560
Shanghai-China
540 Finland
Singapore Canada
New Zealand
520 Japan Australia
Netherlands
Poland Estonia Iceland Belgium
Mean reading performance in PISA 2009
500 Sweden United StatesDenmark
Hungary Portugal UK Germany France Chinese Taipei
Latvia Croatia Czech Rep Greece
480 Italy Macao-China Ireland
Lithuania Slovenia
Russian Federation Slovak Republic Israel Spain
460 Austria
Chile
Serbia
440 Bulgaria
Thailand Mexico Uruguay
420 Colombia Romania y = 0.001x + 435.4
Tunisia Brazil
Jordan Argentina Trinidad and Tobago
400 Indonesia R² = 0.243
Albania Kazakhstan
380 Peru Panama
360 Azerbaijan
340
320
Kyrgyzstan
300
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
GDP per capita (current USD) 6

7. Performance and spending
PISA reading performance
Public spending on education, total (% of government expenditure)
500 25
Public spending on education (% of government
Mean reading performance in PISA 2009
OECD average
480
460 20
440
420 15
expenditure)
400 OECD average
380 10
360
340 5
320
300 0
7
Source: OECD PISA 2009 Database;
Education at a Glance (2011); World Bank Indicators 2011 (Data from 2008 or last year for which data is available)

8. Relative public spending on education: SEAMEO region
Public expenditure on education as % of gov. expenditure
(2009 or most recent year )
Thailand 20.3
Vietnam 19.8
Myanmar 18.1
Indonesia 17.9
Malaysia 17.2
Philippines 16.9
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels) 16.4
Timor-Leste 15.5
OECD members 12.4
Cambodia 12.4
Lao PDR 12.2
Singapore 11.6
Brunei Darussalam 8.5
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Source: OECD; World Bank

9. Relative public spending on education: SEAMEO region
Public expenditure on education as % of GDP
(2009 or most recent year )
Timor-Leste 16.8
Vietnam 5.3
OECD 5.2
Thailand 4.1
Malaysia 4.1
Brunei Darussalam 3.7
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels) 3.4
Singapore 3.0
Indonesia 2.8
Philippines 2.8
Lao PDR 2.3
Cambodia 2.1
Myanmar 1.3
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
Source: OECD; World Bank

10. Trends in education spending: SEAMEO region
Trends in expenditure per student 2000-2010, secondary education
(current USD)
Source: OECD; World Bank

11. Future trends and efficiency implications: youth literacy rate
Literacy rate, youth total (% of people ages 15-24) 2009
female
male
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Source: World Bank Indicators

12. School enrollment, tertiary (%, gross enrollment)
60
East Asia & Pacific
50 OECD members
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
40 Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
30
Philippines
Thailand
Timor-Leste
20
Vietnam
10
0
Source: World Bank Indicators

13. Outputs and efficiency: youth literacy rate
Population growth 2010, annual (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: World Bank Indicators

14. Outputs and efficiency: student achievement
Mean PISA performance in reading
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: OECD PISA Database 2009

15. Education levels of the unemployed population
0.1
100%
6.8
90%
24.6 25.1
80% 39.4 43.2
70%
60%
50% 86.0
88.4 tertiary
40% non-tertiary
77.6 74.9
30% 59.8 56.6
20%
10%
0%
Thailand Brunei OECD members Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Darussalam
Source: OECD; UNESCO; ILO

16. Enrolment in Vocational Education and Training in % of all
secondary education enrolment, 2009
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% General secondary education
VET
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: OECD; UNESCO

17. What can be done?

18. How does a
country increase
the efficiency
of skills?
Source: OECD

19. What next?
Financing of education and efficiency
• Main question: how to achieve more with less?
• Possible efficiency gains through good policy
choices
• OECD work on efficiency of education
investment

20. What next?
Efficiency of Schooling for Skills in South East Asia –
proposal for OECD-SEAMEO co-operation
• Study on investing in schooling for skills
• Tentative focus and structure
• Are funding systems sustainable?
• What factors will influence cost and efficiency in the
future?
• Focus: formal schooling, tertiary education
• Follow-up
• Participation in OECD activities
• Peer learning through thematic workshops
• Possibility for in-depth country work

21. Thank you!
Ian.whitman@oecd.org