Scientists in Schools Program - Presentations from the Energy and Climate Change Symposium

1. The Heat is ON: Impacts of climate change in Australia’s biodiversity Linda Beaumont Macquarie University

5. What lies ahead: 2030 CSIRO 2007 Precipitation best estimate: little change in far north, decreases of 2-10% elsewhere Temperature best estimate: 0.7°C annual warming

7. Why do ecosystems matter?

8. Ecosystem Services & Functions Supporting Services: primary production, provision of habitat, nutrient cycling, production of oxygen, water cycling Regulating Services: pollination, seed dispersal, climate regulation, natural hazard protection, erosion control Marketable Products: wood, fuel, fish, pharmaceuticals, tourism & recreation Cultural Services: Spiritual & religious values, education, asthetic values Human well-being Global Changes Climate Biochemical cycles Land use Species Introduction

13. Each species has an optimal range Temperature Survival Optimal Just surviving Dead Just surviving Dead

14. Short, medium & long term responses of plants to climate

21. Species & communities will be affected 1. Directly: - Temperature - Rainfall - CO 2 - Extreme events 2. Indirectly: - Interactions with other species

24. What responses have occurred so far? (IPCC 2007)

26. Breeding grounds: Arrival -3.1 days/decade Depart +8.1 days/decade Winter grounds: Arrival -5.3 days/decade Depart -7.8 days/decade Changes in migration of Australian birds: 1960-2005 Beaumont et al 2006

28. Rainforest expansion Coral bleaching Snow-gum expansion Saltwater intrusion into freshwater swamps Alpine: feral animals Islands: plant colonisation, bird & seal population increases

30. Future impacts Kakadu: Salt water intrusion, displacement of freshwater wetlands QLD Wet Tropics: Extinctions of many endemics, deterioration of reefs Murray-Darling Basin: Reduced water supply, threats to freshwater wetlands, reduced habitat for migratory birds SW WA: Range reductions, fragmentation for endemic plants & crops Alpine zone: loss of plant & animal species, increase in shrubs Migratory birds: More overwintering, residency

33. 99%of the Australian continent < 1000m Limited scope for altitudinal migration as climate zones shift

34. How far would a species have to move to stay in the same climate it is in today? 300m 400m 500m 600m 700m 800m For every 1°C increase in average yearly temperature it would have to shift: ~ 100m uphill or ~ 125km south 200m

44. Research Methods Monitor Experiment Model

57. Questions?