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Behavioural Economics and Finance
1. Behavioural Economics and Finance
Professor Liam Delaney,
Stirling, SIRE and UCD Geary Institute
Malta Association for Risk Management Workshop
March 15th 2013
2. Behavioural Finance
Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Integrating Psychology of Investment
Simple rules of thumb
Animal Spirits
Major influence on modern finance and financial
regulation
3. Major Features
Consumer and Investor Inertia
Diversification and Decisions
Financial Advisors and Face-To-Face Interaction
Herding and Group Behaviour
When less is more
Implications for Policy and Risk Management
4. Inertia and Status Quo
Status Quo Bias
Very strong tendency to stick at initial options
presented
Partly due to “laziness”, perception of default as
advice, anchoring effects
Designers can use defaults for various purposes
Large implications for marketing and regulation of
financial products
5. The power of suggestion
Automatic enrollment is the most effective method to increase
participation in saving schemes (Madrian, 2012)
Madrian & Shea (2001), Fortune 500 Health Care Company.
Male Aged 20-29 Income <$20k White Hispanic 75.1
80.0
100.0 100.0
82.7 100.0
100.0 88.2
85.7
80.0
79.5 80.0
80.0 80.0 60.0
60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
42.3 42.7 40.0
%
%
%
%
%
40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
25.3 19.0
20.0
20.0 20.0 20.0 12.5 20.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW
Overall
Female Aged 60-64 Income $80k+ Black 100.0
85.9
100.0 100.0 100.0 94.2 100.0
86.0 86.0 81.3 80.0
80.0 80.0 80.0 68.3 80.0
60.0 60.0
60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
37.4
%
%
%
%
35.9
%
40.0 40.0 40.0
40.0 40.0
21.7
20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW WINDOW NEW
5
7. Herding Instincts
Large literature on herding
Peer effects and social norms
Traders face powerful incentives not to be the only
ones wrong
Regret aversion
Using others as a source of information
Self-fulfilling financial panics
8.
9. Diversification and Decisions
Home Bias in Investment Portfolios
Reflects familiarity to some extent
Large degree of underdiversification
Very low rates of market participation
Many single-asset households
Preference for shares in own company
Under-annuitisation
10. When less is more
US 401k often has >15 million options
Choice paralysis
Simplification
Quick Enrolment
Framing of choice more important than number of
choices
Differs according to financial capability
11. Simplifying choices to promote participation
Quick Enrolment - Choi, Laibson and Madrian (2006)
Key Features
Low-cost manipulation
Designed to simplify the 401(k) enrollment process. Employees
are given the option to make an election to enroll in their 401(k)
plan at a pre-selected contribution rate and asset allocation.
mechanism
Simplifies the savings plan decision process.
Key Results
Quick Enrollment™ tripled 401(k) participation rates among new
employees three months after hire.
When Quick Enrollment™ was offered to previously hired non-
participating employees at two firms, participation increased by
10 to 20 percentage points among those employees affected.
12. Financial advisors
People do not tend to read small print
Trust in the person they are speaking to a
fundamental driver of behaviour
DG Sanco retail investor study
Development of trust relationships online
Important ethical and business implications
13. Main Implications
Age of Rational-Man finance is over
Assumptions of full rationality insufficient for risk
management in private and public institutions
Understand investor/consumer decisions in greater
detail
Role of default options in shaping behaviour
Role of complexity in shaping behaviour
14. Managing Animal Spirits
“To understand how economies work and how we
can manage them and prosper, we must pay
attention to the thought patterns that animate
people’s feelings and ideas, their animal spirits”.
We will never really understand important economic
events unless we confront the fact that their causes
are largely mental in nature”
15.
16. Main Implications
Understanding determinants of trust in financial
institutions
Nudging individual behaviour
Promoting active and more rational consumer
choices
Avoiding mis-selling
Building confidence and robustness in financial
systems
Building institutions that allow innovation but have
more safety valves
17.
18. Resources
Brookings Institute Book on BE and Policy
http://www.brookings.edu/press/Books/2011/policyandch
oice.aspx
Consumer Empowerment DG Sanco
http://ec.europa.eu/consumers/consumer_empowerment
/index_en.htm
Behavioural Insights Team Cabinet Office
http://liamdelaneyecon.blogspot.com/2011/06/cabinet-
office-consumer-empowerment.html