This year’s report looks at the impact of rapid urban growth on food security and nutrition, and considers how food systems can be reshaped to benefit both urban and rural populations.

2. 2017 GFPR Overview
Food and Nutrition Security under Rapid Urbanization
Nutrition
Transition
Value ChainsUrban Hunger
Informal
Markets
Regional
Developments
Food Policy
Indicators
Rural-Urban
Linkages

3. Looking back at 2016
A glimmer of hope
• Global extreme poverty and hunger rates declined
• Food prices remained low
• 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Paris
Agreement & ICN2 follow-up began implementation
• Urbanization elevated in global agenda

4. ?
Political changes
Stagnant economic
growth
Rising inequality
Ongoing conflicts
Continued climate and
environmental challenges
Looking forward to 2017
Great uncertainties
Looming famines in
Northern Nigeria, Yemen,
Somalia, South Sudan
Persistent hunger and
malnutrition

5. Urbanization in the
spotlight
Projected urban share
of global population
Urban
67%
20502014
Urban
54%
Growth of urban population in major regions

6. • Urban growth creates opportunities for rural producers
• Rural-urban linkages help propel economic development,
food security, and nutrition
• Broken value chains and poor coordination weaken
linkages, hold back progress
Rural-urban linkages
Rural-urban linkages are
crucial for ending hunger
and malnutrition
Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

7. Example of activities enhancing
rural-urban linkages
Benefits
Processing &
storage facilities Reduced food loss Increased food
diversity
Improved coordination
& planning
More labor & market
opportunities for
smallholders
Land use mgmt &
improved food
security
Leveraging
intermediate towns &
cities
Increased scale of &
access to markets
Improved food
access & quality
Rural-urban linkages
Strong links for achieving improved food systems
and multiple SDGs
Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

8. Rural-urban linkages
Lessons learned
• Improved infrastructure in the Red River Delta in Viet Nam
o Better road and transport systems, communications infrastructure, and connections
to input suppliers spurred agricultural intensification and crop diversification
• Role of small- and medium-sized towns and cities in Ethiopia
o Improvements to access roads, ICT access, and market infrastructure helped small
towns become centers for agricultural input and produce sales
• Global value chain development and urban growth in Ghana
o Expansion of cocoa production, processing, and trade raised farm incomes and
stimulated urban economic activity through increased trade and business services
Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

9. Rural-urban linkages
Policy and research needs
Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017
• How can policy coordination between rural and urban be improved?
• How can value chains be made more inclusive and efficient?
• How can small- and medium-sized towns best be leveraged to
facilitate social and economic links?
• How can rural investments be better targeted?
• What policies and programs on social protection can improve
resilience in rural and urban areas?

10. Urban hunger
Growing cities, new
challenges
• Burdens of malnutrition are shifting to urban areas
o One in three stunted children lives in an urban area
o Rapid increases in overweight and obesity concentrated in urban areas
• The urban poor face unique challenges
o Dependence on cash and the informal sector
o Vulnerability to income & price shocks
o Limited access to basic services
Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017

11. Urban hunger
Policy and research needs
Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017
• What is the extent of poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition
in urban areas?
• What is the quality of urban diets, what are the nutrient gaps,
and what are the dietary patterns that increase health risks?
• How can we best tailor programs and policies to support the
urban poor in tackling the distinct challenges of urban life?

12. Nutrition transition
Urbanization and the
nutrition transition
Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017
• A “nutrition transition” is underway
o From consumption of coarse grains, staple cereals, and pulses to
consumption of more animal-source foods, sugar, fats and oils, refined
grains, and processed foods
• Overweight and obesity & other diet-related diseases are rising
• Urban food environments pose challenges and opportunities
o Easier access to unhealthy diets AND nutritious foods (for those who
can afford them)

13. Nutrition transition
NOURISHING policy framework
• Ten potential actions, three policy
areas
o Food environments
o Food systems
o Behavior change
• Recent actions include
o “Warning” labels on foods with high
fat, sugar, and salt in Chile and
Ecuador
o Restrictions on food marketing to
children in Mexico, Korea, and
Taiwan, China
Source: This material has been reproduced from the World Cancer Research Fund International NOURISHING Framework and Policy Database, www.wcrf.org/NOURISHING

14. Nutrition transition
Policy and research needs
Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017
• What are people eating and how is the urban food environment shaping
their choices?
• How can food retailers and services make a greater contribution toward
creating an enabling environment for good nutrition?
• What experiences with national and municipal-level policies to address the
nutrition transition can help inform policy makers regarding, for example,
o Food-labeling requirements to provide consumers with more information
o Taxes on less healthy foods
o School meal programs
o Affordable “popular” restaurants

15. Agricultural value chains
How cities reshape food
systems
Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017
• Drivers of change: Increased commercial flows of agricultural
goods, diet transformation, greater role of commercial markets
• “Quiet revolution” in staple-food value chains
o Increased investment in technology & modern inputs
o Greater vertical integration with growing scale of midstream & retail
sections
o Rise of mobile phone use by farmers for market information

16. Agricultural value chains
Transport costs and adoption of modern
technologies in Ethiopia

17. Agricultural value chains
Policy and research needs
Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017
• What is the impact of growth in post-farmgate segments and
urban markets on employment, prices, and food security for
both rural and urban populations?
• How can governments best kick-start changes in agricultural
value chains, including through investment in
o Road and communications infrastructure
o Reliable electricity grids
o Agricultural research and development

18. Governance of informal markets
Informal food markets are
key in African cities
• In Africa, where urbanization is most rapid, urban poor rely
heavily on informal markets for accessible, affordable food
o Most eggs, meat, fish, and milk sold to urban poor are from informal
markets
• Policies face institutional, administrative, political challenges
o Lack of local mandate for food security
o Lack of policy integration across sectors & ministries
o Political contest over cities can lead to violence
Resnick 2017

19. Governance of informal markets
Governments often focus on control, regulation, or
eradication of urban informal food economy
Resnick 2017

20. Governance of informal markets
Policy and research needs
• What tools can institutionalize regular engagement between
local governments and informal workers?
• How can the informal economy be actively incorporated into
discussions of urban food security?
• How can cooperation between sectors and ministries be
promoted to improve governance of the informal sector?
• What approaches, such as training informal sector workers,
can improve food safety and support the benefits provided by
the sector?
Resnick 2017

21. Regional and national developments
Africa
• Slow, uneven progress in poverty,
hunger, and malnutrition reduction
• Drought in Eastern, Southern Africa
East Asia
• Established ASEAN Risk Assessment
Center for Food Safety
• Resilience-building in response to El Niño
Central Asia
• Growing trend of regional integration &
harmonization in cross-border trade
• Increased Chinese involvement in agriculture
Latin America & Caribbean
• 3.5 million affected by El Niño-related drought
• Rising obesity and consumption of processed
foods
Middle East & North Africa
• Persistent conflict
• Algiers, Dubai, Tunis joined the Milan
Urban Food Policy Pact
South Asia
• Greater diversification toward nutritious &
high-value crops
• New crop-insurance, health protection schemes
for the poor (e.g. India)

22. Regional developments: Africa
Average annual GDP growth,
2000-2014 and 2015-2016
• Slow but steady progress in poverty, hunger,
and malnutrition reduction
o BUT commodity prices and external finance
remain low
• Continued efforts to support the
Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
Development Programme (CAADP)
o New continentwide campaign to raise
investments in agriculture in the region
• Ongoing challenges for 2017
o Impacts of drought and climate change
o Conflict
o Rapid urbanization
Makombe, Collins, and Badiane 2017

23. Regional developments: Middle
East and North Africa
Food import dependency, agricultural value
added, and city growth in MENA• Conflict remains key barrier
o About ½ the population of Iraq, Libya, Syria,
and Yemen require humanitarian assistance
• Food import dependency likely to rise as
populations urbanize and grow
• Outlook for 2017
o Tackling root causes of conflict
o Preparing strategies to transform agrifood
systems for growing food import
dependency, urbanization
Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2017

24. Regional developments: Central Asia
Total remittance inflows from Russia
(2010-2016, quarters 1-3)• Adjusting to external shocks to trading partners
o Low commodity prices and economic slowdown
in Russia reduced remittances
• Crop diversification and nutrition
o Increased focus on horticulture for export and to
help address under- and overnutrition
• Strengthening regional integration by improving
institutions and infrastructure
• Looking forward
o Mitigate risks from external economic shocks
o Establish monitoring and evaluation framework
for policies
Akramov, Park, and Ilyasov 2017

25. Regional developments: South Asia
• Fastest regional economic growth in world (7.1% in 2016)
o Yet South Asia is home to 35% of world’s poor
• Urbanization and food security
o From 2001-2015, urban population grew by 186 million
o Over 130 million live in slums with limited access to water and sanitation facilities, basic services
• Commitments to improve agriculture, food security, and nutrition
o Bangladesh: Enactment of National Nutrition Policy
o India: Pledged to double farmers’ income by 2022, launch of new health protection scheme
o Nepal: Increased agricultural budget by ~40%, set targets to reduce hunger and malnutrition
• Looking forward
o Challenges: Climate change, unplanned urbanization remain challenges
o Opportunities: Enhancing food systems and intraregional trade
Kumar, Ahmed, Davis, and Joshi 2017

26. Regional developments: South Asia
Growth rates in GDP and agricultural GDP in South Asia
2003-2015
Urban population as a percentage of total population in South Asia
2001-2015
World Bank 2016

27. Regional developments: East Asia
Consumption share in terms of expenditures by product
in rural and urban areas of East Asian countries, 2010
• Impact of El Niño
o Prolonged drought led to lower rice production,
challenges for food security
o Response: New investments and plans to build
resilience
• Shifting diets and urbanization
o Rice provides 43% of daily calories, yet diets are
changing rapidly toward more meat, fish, dairy
o Diet changes more rapid in urban areas
• Challenges for 2017
o Food safety
o Overnutrition
o Resource scarcity
Chen, Timmer, and Dawe 2017

28. Regional developments: Latin America
and the Caribbean
Inequality trends in LAC subregions
2000-2014
• Challenges in 2016
o Political and economic difficulties
o El Niño impacted export and staple crop production,
affected 3.5 million people
o Persistent inequality: Most unequal region in world
• Most urbanized developing region
o 80% of population live in cities
o Continued expansion of supermarkets improves food
availability, but also consumption of processed foods
• Looking ahead
o Uncertainty for LAC economies
o Need for macroeconomic and sectoral plans, mid-
and long-term investments
Díaz-Bonilla and Torero 2017

29. Food policy indicators
Agricultural Science and
Technology Indicators
ASTI FPRCI GHI
IMPACT SPEED TFP
Food Policy Research
Capacity Indicators
Global Hunger Index
Agricultural Total Factor
Productivity
Statistics of Public
Expenditure for Economic
Development
International Model for Policy
Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade

30. Agricultural Science and Technology
Indicators
Investment in agricultural research in most developing
countries fall below 1% of agricultural GDP target
ASTI

31. Agricultural Science and Technology
Indicators
A generation gap threatens future agricultural research
ASTI

32. Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators FPRCI
Research capacity varies—even
within developing regions
Number of publications produced by
developing country researchers
ranges widely

33. Global Hunger Index GHI
Hunger is declining
but still serious in
South Asia and Africa
south of the Sahara

34. Global Hunger Index
Similar scores reflect different challenges
South Asia faces higher child stunting, while Africa south of
the Sahara faces higher undernourishment
GHI

35. International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
IMPACT
Demand for food will
grow, and composition
of diets will shift
toward fruits and
vegetables, pulses, and
meats

36. International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Demand for
cereals will grow
most rapidly in
Africa south of the
Sahara
IMPACT

37. International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Risk of hunger
projected to
decline to 5%
globally by 2050
IMPACT

38. Statistics of Public Expenditure for
Economic Development
SPEED
Developing
countries spend
less on agriculture,
but the gap is
shrinking

39. Statistics of Public Expenditure for
Economic Development
Spending patterns differ across developing regions
SPEED

40. Total Factor Productivity TFP
Output per worker doubled from 1991 to 2013,
with 70% of growth explained by TFP

41. Total Factor Productivity
TFP growth rates differ across regions
TFP

42. Urbanization presents
opportunities for both
rural and urban areas
to end hunger and
malnutrition